Joe Buscaglia’s Early Thoughts on the Bills Needs Going Into 2023

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

He meaning Joe B? Or Josh? Probably the former but thought I'd ask. It's it's Joe, it's quite the obvious statement; if it's Josh, it's way, way more than that though I don't think Josh is the type to critique his linemen in public.

This was Joe making this assumption about the OL.  Josh didn’t say much in his presser.  

1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:

Boy, someone has a thing for the local has been sports persons desperately hanging to be relevant at any level.

🤷‍♂️ He’s a very good reporter and I thought this was a breakdown 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

How do you commit $25+ million a year to two LBers who don't rush the QB?  That's a huge chunk of money to what amounts to arguably the least impactful defensive positions.

He explains… the first year of the contract renewal will be minimal about $6-$7M.  It takes a jump in the next few years but the cap is expected to rise substantially after the new TV deal.  Hopefully that gives you the room to make it work 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

How do you commit $25+ million a year to two LBers who don't rush the QB?  That's a huge chunk of money to what amounts to arguably the least impactful defensive positions.

 

I posted this elsewhere, but check out Roquan Smith's new deal for a decent framework of what Edmunds' deal will look like.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/roquan-smith-25103/

 

$9M cap hit next year. Which would be a reduction for Edmunds from $12M this year. And a potential out after 3 years.

 

And regarding roles, while Edmunds doesnt rush the passer, what he does for us in the Pass game is almost irreplaceable (and I say this as a historical Edmunds detractor)

 

Git r dun.

[blitzboy54]

I have absolutely zero understanding of why Dorsey is coming back. For some reason the fanbase is up in arms over Fraizer but risking a year in Allen's SB window with a guy that not only didn't adjust he also refused to use the weapons he had. The RB thing has been beaten to death but shows a real disconnect between the the chef and the guy buying the groceries. 

[billybrew1]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I know many of us are fans of Joe B.  I thought he did a very good job analyzing the Bills potential off-season needs.  You can listen below but I’ll list the 10 big points:

 

 

 

1. Sean McDermott is going NO WHERE! 

 He understands the fan disappointment and blames the majority of the loss on McDermott for not having the Bills ready versus Cincinnati.  But he said it’s impressive with how the team overcame so many obstacles to win 14 games.  It would be maddening to move on from McDermotr.

 

2. Frazier is staying too.  Same with McDermott.  Talks about how they played poorly defensively against CIN but that the defense overcame many injuries to finish 4th in DVOA and that the defense bailed the Bills out in the WC against Miami.  
 

3. Dangerous game with Ken Dorsey.  It looks like Dorsey is staying and there is danger.  His 2022 season, while good statistically, also showed little creativity with a failure to adjust and break tendency.  Josh Allen wants him as OC and thinks he’ll get better.  BUT if he doesn’t get better, the Bills might have wasted another season.  The decision to run it back with Dorsey is probably the biggest gamble going into next season.  
 

4. Beane needs to fix the OL BIGTIME 

The Bills OL struggled and switched schemes throughout the season - which is not a good sign.  The OL depth was tested and was often very poor.  Beane will need to do a better job at finding depth.  
 

5. No “big ticket” free agent signings 

Forget any big FA contracts.  Beane said it’s not gonna happen and that Von is the biggest signing this off-season az well.  Bargain shopping only.  
 

6. Tremaine Edmunds has a chance of re-signing

Beane and McDermott raved about Edmunds.  Joe believes the market will be strong but that the Bills can find a way to bring him back.

 

7. The Terrell Bernard draft pick looms large

Bernard was a luxury pick that couldn’t see the field - even in garbage time.  He is not a replacement for Edmunds and going into Year 2, there doesn’t seem to be any role for him on the defense.  Given the talent that was available in round 3 last season and the fact Poyer is likely gone, it would have made more sense to draft a safety last season to take over.  There’s a chance Christian Benford could step in.   Either way it seems like the  3rd round selection could have been allocated much better.  
 

8. Devin Singletary is likely gone but could be back if there’s no market.

The Bills like Singletary but doesn’t see how the bring him back unless he doesn’t get the type of deal he wants in FA.  
 

9. Bills believe in Spencer Brown but

should they?

He was one of the worst rated starters on the team.  Joe doesn’t know how the Bills can possibly give Brown the benefit of the doubt given to how poorly he’s played.  Believes Bills will sign a veteran player like “Rodger Saffold” to complete at RT.  

10. Allen does not believe in his offensive line 

Believes there are a LOT of issues with the OL and the Bills need to do more to help Josh Allen.   The actions of Josh Allen throughout 2022 show that Josh doesn’t trust his line, resulting him to bail on plays and not get through his position.  He implied that there could be more moves in OL this season.  

He doesn’t really like his weapons either…. It’s cray-cray to keep KD….just Crazy….

[somnus00]

1 hour ago, uninja said:

 

There is soooo much more to playing LB than rushing the QB. Good linebackers like Edmunds and Milano take away huge chunks of the field and force QBs to have to make much more difficult throws into much tighter windows. In the modern game an incompletion is almost as good as a sack, it's a play for no yards and a loss of down.

Edmunds does seem to struggle with weaving through traffic in getting to the QB. But as you said, he is great at taking away chunks of he field. His lack of splash plays is likely due to Frazier's scheme. I feel like he'd be a big play monster on the 49ers defense.

 

While he doesn't make those big plays, he just seems to lower the overall efficiency of the opposing offense. That is incredibly valuable, as you suggest.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Incompletions don't kill drives.  Sacks do.  The Eagles had the most sacks.  Chiefs had the second most.  The Bears had the fewest.

 

You're 100% correct.

 

Chiefs/Spags recognize this. 

 

When it comes down to the Playoffs.. elite QB vs elite QB, which Defense can make a negative play.  A sack, a turnover, a TFL... That's how you get elite offenses on the top of their game off the field.  1st and 10 becoming 2nd and 10 does not do that.  

 

Maybe a healthy Von changes the entire complexion of the Bills Defense next year..   and maybe that's even valid..  Take Chris Jones off the Chiefs and they aren't beating the Bengals to get to the Super Bowl.  However, the Bills seem to be putting way too much money and draft capital into players that don't create negative plays.  Milano is a great pass rushing LB.  Edmunds, maybe he figures it out, but until then he's just a massive human being that runs into a gap whether it's open or not. 

[whorlnut]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I wholeheartedly disagree with #3. Dorsey is the biggest gamble? On what planet? Continuing to bring back your defensive coordinator whose defense has proven to fail time and time again when it matters is the biggest gamble. The sample size is also 5x as larger than Dorsey and that unit has hoarded all the premium picks. Funny how Buscaglia can make excuses for Frazier, but then condemn Dorsey. Fact is they both probably need to be replaced, but I’m willing to see if the offense can evolve with a 2nd year play caller and more resources allocated to his side of the ball. I have no faith in the defense next year to make the plays when needed. None. And much of that has to do with who’s coordinating and calling the plays. I have years and years and years of history that paints that picture.

Not sure how or why Frazier continues to get excused for his failures in big moments. It’s maddening, but whatever I guess. It’s mcd’s defense and nothing would change if another guy came in anyways. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 hours ago, Airseven said:

All rather obvious or self-evident thoughts, some of which could have been concluded by October. 

 

How is Frazier not viewed as a risk? 

 

What about WR? The slot position was a mess this season, with McKenzie, Shakir, and Beasley all rotating in, none with any efficiency. Does anyone want Isaiah McKenzie back as the starter next year? 

 

RT is a problem. When you watch the Bills, you notice #79 a lot. 

 

How long does Morse continue playing? 

 

There is no in-house option at LG with Van Roten, Saffold, Boettger all UFAs. 

 

The Bills haven't hit on an A player in the draft since Stefon Diggs in 2020. He was essentially the first round draft pick. Outside of that, it's been a lot of defensive line, running backs, OTs and none of those players have been A talents. 

 

McDermott talked late in the year about how the team was still getting to know Kaiir Elam, so I can only assume they view Shakir that way. With skepticism on how he practices, how he plays, so he doesn't see the field. 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Incompletions don't kill drives.  Sacks do.  The Eagles had the most sacks.  Chiefs had the second most.  The Bears had the fewest.

Agree. Add tackling well. My list sack's turnovers and tackle well 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, blitzboy54 said:

I have absolutely zero understanding of why Dorsey is coming back. For some reason the fanbase is up in arms over Fraizer but risking a year in Allen's SB window with a guy that not only didn't adjust he also refused to use the weapons he had. The RB thing has been beaten to death but shows a real disconnect between the the chef and the guy buying the groceries. 

1. Dorsey is coming back because Allen has trust in him

2. Dorsey is coming back because if you replace him it will either be a retread or a newbie

3. He is coming back because the team doesn’t need to completely change their successful offensive scheme and changing it is almost surely a regression.

4. With as poor as the OL was and the obvious struggles of Davis and McKenzie, who do you think would have done better?
 

Players matter and they need better play on the OL to enable some plays that are just off the table with the problems the OL presents.  Yes, they also need to do better at WR 2 & 3.

19 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

How is Frazier not viewed as a risk? 

 

What about WR? The slot position was a mess this season, with McKenzie, Shakir, and Beasley all rotating in, none with any efficiency. Does anyone was Isaiah McKenzie back as the starter next year? 

 

RT is a problem. When you watch the Bills, you notice #79 a lot. 

 

How long does Morse continue playing? 

 

There is no in-house option at LG with Van Roten, Saffold, Boettger all UFAs. 

 

The Bills haven't hit on an A player in the draft since Stefon Diggs in 2020. He was essentially the first round draft pick. Outside of that, it's been a lot of defensive line, running backs, OTs and none of those players have been A talents. 

 

McDermott talked late in the year about how the team was still getting to know Kaiir Elam, so I can only assume they view Shakir that way. With skepticism on how he practices, how he plays, so he doesn't see the field. 

 

 

I suggest that Rousseau is working his way there and they were picking late in each round in 21 and 22.

[buffblue]

3 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I wholeheartedly disagree with #3. Dorsey is the biggest gamble? On what planet? Continuing to bring back your defensive coordinator whose defense has proven to fail time and time again when it matters is the biggest gamble. The sample size is also 5x as larger than Dorsey and that unit has hoarded all the premium picks. Funny how Buscaglia can make excuses for Frazier, but then condemn Dorsey. Fact is they both probably need to be replaced, but I’m willing to see if the offense can evolve with a 2nd year play caller and more resources allocated to his side of the ball. I have no faith in the defense next year to make the plays when needed. None. And much of that has to do with who’s coordinating and calling the plays. I have years and years and years of history that paints that picture.

Exactly. Joe B is generally pretty good but the section on Frazier was hilariously uncritical. Spare me the inflated regular season numbers his soft defense racks up against sub par competition. Any decent QB we play shreds us and Frazier has shown repeatedly he has no answers 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I mean COULD Bernard be looked at SS?

[Success]

It's possible that we could have our best secondary of the "Allen era" this coming season, even w/ losing Poyer.

 

Tre White was rounding slightly back into form at the end.  An offseason & full training camp will hopefully get him back to the player he was before the injury.  Meanwhile, Elam was coming on strong, and could take a big 2nd year leap. Johnson in the slot, Hyde back from injury, and hopefully Benford making a successful transition to safety could really turn the secondary into one of the league's best.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

All draft capital and $$$ resources outside of Edmunds should be poured into the offsense
 

This team deperately needs at least 2, ideally 3 upgrades on the Oline & a legit threat at WR
 

 

[frostbitmic]

3 hours ago, blitzboy54 said:

I have absolutely zero understanding of why Dorsey is coming back. For some reason the fanbase is up in arms over Fraizer but risking a year in Allen's SB window with a guy that not only didn't adjust he also refused to use the weapons he had. The RB thing has been beaten to death but shows a real disconnect between the the chef and the guy buying the groceries. 

Dorsey or Daboll ? ... The same criticisms heaped on Dorsey are the same ones that were being heaped on Daboll in 2020 and 2021. Poor red zone play calls, RB's a second or third thought.

 

Dorsey had some problems but for long stretches, the only ones slowing down the Bills offense was the Bills offense. Dorsey didn't throw any INT's, or put the ball on the carpet drop passes or get flagged for penalties.

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I wholeheartedly disagree with #3. Dorsey is the biggest gamble? On what planet? Continuing to bring back your defensive coordinator whose defense has proven to fail time and time again when it matters is the biggest gamble. The sample size is also 5x as larger than Dorsey and that unit has hoarded all the premium picks. Funny how Buscaglia can make excuses for Frazier, but then condemn Dorsey. Fact is they both probably need to be replaced, but I’m willing to see if the offense can evolve with a 2nd year play caller and more resources allocated to his side of the ball. I have no faith in the defense next year to make the plays when needed. None. And much of that has to do with who’s coordinating and calling the plays. I have years and years and years of history that paints that picture.

At the same time Frazier’s defenses have always ranked highly year to year

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Bernard may be just too small, but so was Milano and he is pretty jacked now.  

 

 Bernard is actually listed 1 pound heavier than Milano. Milano is listed at only 223 pounds. I was pretty surprised by this, I knew he was a bit undersized, but damn. Surprised he doesn't get injured more often with the way he hits people.

 

 

 

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

I'm not really sure where the notion of "has been" or "desperately hanging to be relevant" stuff comes from.

Joe B seems to be making a pretty decent living as the lead Bills reporter for The Athletic.

 

The Athletic is struggling and needs its reporters to constantly advertise, advertise, advertise. They burned through $95M in 2019 and 2020 and they lost over $50M in 2021. The NY Times had to bail them out in 2022, but they're still losing money (they were $20M in the red as of the second quarter of this year).

 

That has turned many reporters, including Joe B, into clickbait monsters. Go to his Twitter page and you will see him post the same mundane article 3, 4, 5 times in an effort to get people to click it. Its clear that The Athletic and NYT are pushing their reporters to be advertisers. And that's never good IMO.

 

I wouldn't say he is a "has been", but his stuff was significantly better (again, in my opinion) prior to his days at The Athletic. And its hard not to laugh when the same people who disparage PFF, tout Joe B's breakdowns. Because, yeah, i'm sure the former radio telephone operator has a more nuanced view of the game than former players, coaches, and scouts who work for PFF.

[ghostwriter]

The Bills should borrow a page from Bill Bellyacher Belichick and start trading down in the draft and accumulating picks for this year and the next. Maybe consider trading lame duck players also for more draft picks. Keep trading down down down.

[billsbackto81]

None of that made me feel any better about this season or optimistic about the next.