Gabe Davis caught an abysmal 51.6% of his 93 targets this year. Update: High% off target

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

14 hours ago, ChasBB said:

The return doesn't really matter.  He's not helping this team now and that's all that matters.  If there is no return to be had, then release him.

 

He helped them get over 800 yards and 46 catches.  So you think taking that away would have made the team better?  Is he helping them as much as Diggs or as much as was expected, no, but he is helping.  Now you're down two WR's with limited money to spend  Good luck getting better. 

 

I've got no problem replacing him as the #2, but cutting him is not making the team better.

[streetkings01]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

I paged back and didn't see anything recent and didn't mean to steal anyones thunder. The OP on twitter comes up with very good topics for discussion. So I asked GREG If he would mind If I share a few of them here on TBD. Nice guy, he said thats fine.

 

Off season is usually where the discussions for needed changes picks up. If any of you guys want to post the link to previous discussions. By all means.

It’s been talked about on WGR, Joe Marino’s podcast and this message board. Just do a search of Gabe Davis or drops and see what pops up on this board.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, Livinginthepast said:

Yes that was a killer. Right in his hands and then right out.

He just does that way too much he was a number 4 before this year for a few reasons 

[Figster]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

 

The reason Gabe gets all the deep shots is because he is horrible at getting separation in the short/intermediate area. That DB in the beginning of the season nailed it- Gabe only runs 3 routes. We all dismissed that as garbage but in retrospect it’s true. I don’t blame Gabe for not meeting the expectations as a true #2. He got the chance to step up, he failed, so this team must get a better option at #2 for next year and put Gabe back in the 3/4 WR position where he can excel.

Its a very important number considering this thread popularity and discussion is based on completion percentage when targeted. 

 

So lets repeat this very important part of the equation. 41% was flat out misses by Josh. Thanks for this @DrDawkinstein 

 

41% 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Figster

[Pokebball]

47 minutes ago, Figster said:

Its a very important number considering this thread popularity and discussion is based on completion percentage when targeted. 

 

So lets repeat this very important part of the equation. 41% was flat out misses by Josh. Thanks for this @DrDawkinstein 

 

41% 

 

As has been mentioned numerous times in this thread, doesn't this 41% include throw aways by Josh. I guess you can call that an "absolute miss" if you'd like. I think most see the significant difference, however, between an intentional throw away and an "absolute miss".

[LabattBlue]

Gabe is either…

 

A. Going to have a great 2023, hit FA, and cash in with another team

 

B. Have a similar year in 2023 compared to the last two, and the Bills retain him at the 6-10 mil range on a multi year deal. 
 

C. His up and down play in 2023 leads McD and BB to move on from him. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

21 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

70-85 catches, 1000 yds, 8 tds 

 

That’s would should’ve happened. It’s the Bills job to figure out why it didn’t go that way, and fox it for next year. If they don’t, the offense is going look even more unimaginative and inefficient than this past season. 

The person who needs to find out why it didn’t happen is Gabe Davis. 

[Thrivefourfive]

2 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

The person who needs to find out why it didn’t happen is Gabe Davis. 

Don’t you think he already knows, and there’s nothing he can do about it?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

7 hours ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Not making any projections, but Buffalo had a receiver by the name of Eric Moulds who dropped a lot of passes his first few seasons. He was considered a disappointment. However, around season four, Moulds became one of the better receivers in the league. He ended up having a productive career in Buffalo. Possibly, Davis has the same upside and just needs a little more time. He has talent and has shown flashes. Maybe, year four it clicks.

Let’s hope it clicks. He’ll be on the roster and the inside track at winning the #2, but I imagine we will see another vet WR. 

[Thrivefourfive]

44 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

As has been mentioned numerous times in this thread, doesn't this 41% include throw aways by Josh. I guess you can call that an "absolute miss" if you'd like. I think most see the significant difference, however, between an intentional throw away and an "absolute miss".

What about the this is Gabe’s play,, he should have been open,, but he didn’t get open,, so throw it away.. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Don’t you think he already knows, and there’s nothing he can do about it?

There is absolutely something that can be done, Gabe has all the physical tools in the world. His issues seem mental to me.
 

If Gabe can get 10% more completions and shave off a few drops, he’ll get a second contract. 

He needs to put in the work this summer and get his head on right.

[Meatloaf63]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

Davis could have and should have had a better year. He had some bad drops, and some bad games. But a lot of his regression was due to the leaders of the Offense (Josh and Dorsey) completely losing their way on how to take what the D gives you, keep the drive alive, and move the ball down the field.

 

 

 

 

Ding ding ding. A lot of them.

 

Meanwhile, Knox and Singletary running open underneath...

Anyone who thinks 41% of the incompletions were bad throws from Josh is smoking crack. Josh threw too many low percentage passes, but a relatively high amount were catchable. Gabe was his own worst enemy.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

Davis could have and should have had a better year. He had some bad drops, and some bad games. But a lot of his regression was due to the leaders of the Offense (Josh and Dorsey) completely losing their way on how to take what the D gives you, keep the drive alive, and move the ball down the field.

 

 

 

 

Ding ding ding. A lot of them.

 

Meanwhile, Knox and Singletary running open underneath...

There are a lot, and I mean a LOT, if variables you straight up over looked in that little math equation.

 

 

Just now, Meatloaf63 said:

Anyone who thinks 41% of the incompletions were bad throws from Josh is smoking crack. Josh threw too many low percentage passes, but a relatively high amount were catchable. Gabe was his own worst enemy.

Agreed, that 41% thing is laughable. Gabe struggled with tight coverage this years, often DBs could be more physical than him. 
 

He CAN improve on this year, that also needs to be said too, but his issues were present last year as well. 

[JohnNord]

22 hours ago, Figster said:

 

Not good enough…period.  But he has one more year on a rookie deal and will be a solid WR3 next season.  He’s not consistent enough to be counted on 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Something to keep in mind: Knox, Diggs, Singletary, Cook and even McKenzie all posted above a 70% of targets caught this year. 
 

We’ve seen the dominant force he can be, I hope he puts it all together this summer. 

[Thrivefourfive]

12 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

There is absolutely something that can be done, Gabe has all the physical tools in the world. His issues seem mental to me.
 

If Gabe can get 10% more completions and shave off a few drops, he’ll get a second contract. 

He needs to put in the work this summer and get his head on right.

Wondering how much patience JA will have in all this. When those two connect, like in KC and vs Pittsburgh, they look like world beaters that can’t miss. So much confidence and assertiveness in how Allen throws to Davis, and how Davis brings it in and runs.    
 

But Allen isn’t going to throw to him if it’s like it was this year. Things will get worse for Davis, but stay the same.

[Pokebball]

17 minutes ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Ou
What about the this is Gabe’s play,, he should have been open,, but he didn’t get open,, so throw it away.. 

Week in and week out, I see WRs from other teams high point passes and win 50/50 balls. We don't have any of those WRs in our room. Diggs is one of the best route runners in the game, and effectively creates space. 

 

Davis just isn't good at creating space on his initial route. Nor is he good at high pointing a pass and coming down with those 50/50 balls. He's OK, but he's not where other #2s are. And that said, someone posted how the really good teams no longer have a #1 and #2, but rather have two #1s. Our Bills WR room is really weak in comparison to other top teams WR rooms.

[Playoffs?]

22 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Gabes problem other than he can’t catch is that he’s horrible in the short and intermediate areas of the field.  

So…. Can’t catch, horrible in short areas of the field, horrible in intermediate areas of the field. 
 

Pay the man, Beane!!

[Warriorspikes51]

My fear is Beane won’t do anything at WR.

 

what’s needed:

 

Diggs

Trade/1st or 2nd Round WR

Shakir

Davis

4th or 5th Round WR

McKenzie

[BaaadThingsMan]

Do Better!