Gabe Davis caught an abysmal 51.6% of his 93 targets this year. Update: High% off target

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I'd be shocked if the Bills didn't do something we're not expecting to get a legit WR2 in here before the draft.  

 

Beane went into the draft last year needing a CB, and had to panic trade to get Elam.  It would seem to be malpractice to do that again at WR, given the fact we could very well be looking at their RD1 targets at WR all being gone by the time we draft and/or potentially gone before we even get to a place where we can entertain trade-ups.  

 

Maybe someone like Addison falls to the 20's and we can move up or sit tight, but I'm certainly not banking on that. 

 

That’s the catch of having Super Bowl expectations leading into a draft.  Rebuilding teams with tons of holes can sit back and let the draft fall to them.  Teams like the Bills and Chiefs have to aggressively target specific players at specific positions.  

It’ll never happen since the draft has become its own ecosystem, but it really makes sense to do the draft before free agency.  By then, everybody knows who the teams without a lot of holes are targeting.  

[Trock]

This guy needs to be traded or cut asap.  Major liability. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I think the idea of “WR2” and “WR3” may be a bit outdated. Most offenses nowadays I would think use 3-4 WRs regularly. Davis has shown he can be one of those 3-4. We need another guy who can also be part of that. Diggs, Davis, McKenzie/Shakir, and John Doe. Given Diggs’ age, Davis’ contract/inconsistently, and how the WE $ recently skyrocketed, I hope we get someone like Addison in Round 1. I want a separator, not a jump ball guy. Give Allen a new Beasley who gets open quickly and commands attention in the middle of the field, and I think you see Davis’ numbers return to form/meet expectations. 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I think the idea of “WR2” and “WR3” may be a bit outdated. Most offenses nowadays I would think use 3-4 WRs regularly. Davis has shown he can be one of those 3-4. We need another guy who can also be part of that. Diggs, Davis, McKenzie/Shakir, and John Doe. Given Diggs’ age, Davis’ contract/inconsistently, and how the WE $ recently skyrocketed, I hope we get someone like Addison in Round 1. I want a separator, not a jump ball guy. Give Allen a new Beasley who gets open quickly and commands attention in the middle of the field, and I think you see Davis’ numbers return to form/meet expectations. 

 

I'm perfectly fine with Gabe Davis as WR3, and if we can pay him long term as such.. great.  

 

That said, you need to have two the following:

 

Elite WR1

Elite WR2

Elite OL

 

Bengals have an elite WR1, WR2 and a good OL before injuries hit and derailed their playoff run against Chris Jones/KC.

 

KC has an elite WR1 (Kelce) and an elite OL.

 

Bills have an elite WR1.  

 

Addison would be perfect, and no matter what we do in FA, he should be a guy we're willing to move up to get if he gets within range. 

[nucci]

How many were bad throws from Allen?

[TheBrownBear]

The oddest thing to me about Gabe's regression was how often he had zero awareness of where the sideline boundary lines were this year.  My recollection is that he had a handful of potential catches where he made no attempt to drag or stutter step his feet to stay in bounds.  And that always seemed to be a previous area of strength for him.  Any way you slice it, he just had a real dog of a year.

Edited February 6, 2023 by TheBrownBear

[DrDawkinstein]

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

Davis could have and should have had a better year. He had some bad drops, and some bad games. But a lot of his regression was due to the leaders of the Offense (Josh and Dorsey) completely losing their way on how to take what the D gives you, keep the drive alive, and move the ball down the field.

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, nucci said:

How many were bad throws from Allen?

 

Ding ding ding. A lot of them.

 

Meanwhile, Knox and Singletary running open underneath...

[78thealltimegreat]

13 minutes ago, nucci said:

How many were bad throws from Allen?

Not many see the last pass of the Jets game that hit him from 70 yards between the 1 and 3 for example 

[TheBrownBear]

14 hours ago, NoSaint said:

that said, he never looked crisp all year. Part of me hopes we find out he was playing through some sort of core injury in addition to the early ankle. It could explain so much…

 

That's kind of my hope too.  He came back fairly quickly from that high ankle sprain and was basically useless in the Miami and Baltimore games.  A professional wide receiver needs to be able to cut quickly and crisply, something that is hard to do on a bum ankle.  I basically lost my entire junior season of high school basketball because of a tough high ankle sprain suffered in practice a couple of weeks into the season.  I sat for about a week of practice and then rushed back way before I should have, because I didn't want to lose my spot.  I taped that ankle like a mutha, but I had zero explosiveness and struggled to stay in front of opposing guards for the rest of the season, and was demoted to spot or mop up duty by the time the playoffs came around.

 

The counterargument is that Davis did have that huge game against Pittsburgh three weeks after the injury, so I'm probably grasping at straws here.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 

That’s the catch of having Super Bowl expectations leading into a draft.  Rebuilding teams with tons of holes can sit back and let the draft fall to them.  Teams like the Bills and Chiefs have to aggressively target specific players at specific positions.  

It’ll never happen since the draft has become its own ecosystem, but it really makes sense to do the draft before free agency.  By then, everybody knows who the teams without a lot of holes are targeting.  

 

That and the players association wants it pre-draft to make sure that its existing members get paid before rookies.  

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

Davis could have and should have had a better year. He had some bad drops, and some bad games. But a lot of his regression was due to the leaders of the Offense (Josh and Dorsey) completely losing their way on how to take what the D gives you, keep the drive alive, and move the ball down the field.

 

 

 

 

Ding ding ding. A lot of them.

 

Meanwhile, Knox and Singletary running open underneath...

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Not many see the last pass of the Jets game that hit him from 70 yards between the 1 and 3 for example 

 

Actually, lots of them were desperation heaves by hero-ball Josh.

 

You mention 1 of 7 accounted for drops on the season.

 

There were still 38 missed targets.

 

Lot more on Josh than Gabe.

[pigpen65]

Yeah just a hugely disappointing year. Drops are one thing but by far my biggest concern with Davis was his development of the alligator arms. Maybe he always had em and it just wasn't noticeable because of his smaller role, but that's a trait that never improves.

[Pokebball]

19 minutes ago, nucci said:

How many were bad throws from Allen?

I don't think bad throws effect the catch percentage, right?

 

[nucci]

Just now, Pokebball said:

I don't think bad throws effect the catch percentage, right?

 

Not sure but the stat being used is targets...a bad throw is still a target for a receiver

[TheBrownBear]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Actually, lots of them were desperation heaves by hero-ball Josh.

 

You mention 1 of 7 accounted for drops on the season.

 

There were still 38 missed targets.

 

Lot more on Josh than Gabe.

I agree that Josh's play after the bye left a lot to be desired, but it's not really fair to say all those missed targets were bad throws by Josh.  I assume some are pass breakups and others could potentially be good reads and decent throws where Gabe wasn't able to beat his man or make a good play on the ball for whatever reason.  Both Gabe and Josh (and to some extent Dorsey) share responsibility for Gabe's perceived underproduction this season.

Edited February 6, 2023 by TheBrownBear

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said:

I agree that Josh's play after the bye left a lot to be desired, but it's not really fair to say all those missed targets were bad throws by Josh.  I assume some are pass breakups and others could potentially be good reads and decent throws where Gabe wasn't able to beat his man or make a good play on the ball for whatever reason.  Both Gabe and Josh (and to some extent Dorsey) share responsibility for Gabe's perceived underproduction this season.

 

Agreed on all that. These WR conversations are always tough because the definitions of "target", "drop", etc are always cloudy.

 

I'm sure there are a few that are "nobody's fault, just good defense" and stuff like that.

 

My point was to illustrate that a good chunk of Gabe's regression was on Josh and Dorsey. Not simply all on Gabe forgetting how to play WR.

 

For all those targets, and for everyone's perception, the fact Davis is credited with only 7 drops should be an eye-opener for a lot of detractors here.

 

Not a great year for Davis, but maybe not as bad as many think.

[TheBrownBear]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed on all that. These WR conversations are always tough because the definitions of "target", "drop", etc are always cloudy.

 

I'm sure there are a few that are "nobody's fault, just good defense" and stuff like that.

 

My point was to illustrate that a good chunk of Gabe's regression was on Josh and Dorsey. Not simply all on Gabe forgetting how to play WR.

 

For all those targets, and for everyone's perception, the fact Davis is credited with only 7 drops should be an eye-opener for a lot of detractors here.

 

Not a great year for Davis, but maybe not as bad as many think.

Good points.

 

I think we are all looking for statistical evidence to support what we felt while watching Gabe this season.  Watching the All-22's, he just didn't look sharp in his route running and didn't appear strong in cutting and coming back/making a play on the ball.  And there was the alligator arm thing and his inexplicable lack of awareness of the sideline at times.  Ultimately, he failed the eye test for me.  Maybe I just wasn't paying enough attention to him in past seasons, because there weren't as many glaring mess ups due to his lesser target numbers.

[Flipnmi]

16 hours ago, Augie said:

Like with Knox, I will go on the record and say I still believe. 

 

Gabe can learn from Knox on the hands/concentration front. Improve his routes a bit, and I have high hopes. 

Aw come on, don't you know that people with a positive outlook aren't allowed to post here for at least another couple weeks? This time of year is reserved for the negative Nelly's and haters!  I'm patiently waiting until it's our turn again, but Shaw's objective 2022 Wrap-up post from last week gave me a little hope were getting closer. 

[TheWei44]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed on all that. These WR conversations are always tough because the definitions of "target", "drop", etc are always cloudy.

 

I'm sure there are a few that are "nobody's fault, just good defense" and stuff like that.

 

My point was to illustrate that a good chunk of Gabe's regression was on Josh and Dorsey. Not simply all on Gabe forgetting how to play WR.

 

For all those targets, and for everyone's perception, the fact Davis is credited with only 7 drops should be an eye-opener for a lot of detractors here.

 

Not a great year for Davis, but maybe not as bad as many think.

I'd be curious to see (credited) drops as a percentage of targets or of targets minus catches and see how Gabe compares to other WRs.  That would provide a better comparison across receivers although still flawed (e.g., no controlling for length of pass or difficulty of catch). But I agree with some others that he didn't quite pass eye test and seemingly regressed a bit, even considering various contributing factors.