A theory about Allen and (some) red zone turnovers

[ShakAttack]

When Gabe Davis famously scored 4 TD's in the "13 seconds" game, I think Josh Allen might have developed a trust in Gabe Davis as being the go to guy when it is all on the line.

 

I.e. when the chips are down, when the pass rush is getting home and he needs to get rid of the ball in the red zone, Davis has become the guy that he will "throw it up" to whether or not he is actually open.  

 

As opposed to, pre-13 seconds, when Allen seemed to play more freely in these moments and/or looked for Diggs (the better receiver) which resulted in Allen having only ONE red-zone turnover in his career, to that point (might need to be checked on that, but pretty sure it was either 1 or 2).  

 

Allen is one of those QBs that plays very instinctively, as we know, and I think he might have put a little too much into Davis' career day.

 

Could it also be part of the reason Diggs has grown frustrated?  

 

Could it be that Diggs has picked up on this tendency as well?  

 

And could it be he is also frustrated because A) It isn't working; we aren't coming away with TDs in these situations B) Diggs isn't "him" in those moments and C) Diggs knows if Allen was targeting him instead in those moments - especially those in which he becomes "WIDE OPEN" - there would have been a better outcome for the team?

 

Perhaps Davis is hurting this offense more than just the obvious poor 50% catch rate and 10% drop rate.  Perhaps he is subconsciously hurting Allen's decision making as well?

 

It will be interesting to see where this goes next season i.e. What will Gabe's role be?  Will Allen continue forcing passes to him?  Or will he actually step up in a contract year and resemble "Playoff Gabe" during the regular season as well?

 

Now, having said all of that... 

 

I'd have to actually go back and look at film (that I do not have) for each of these turnovers to confirm this tendency to be true, but if memory serves me correct, I do remember Davis being the target on some of these throws, even when he was not at all open, which is the concerning part here. 

 

But for example, I definitely remember him being the target on Allen's OT interception against the Vikings which is one of many plays in that game that was the difference between winning and losing, the difference between having the #1 seed in the AFC and not having it... the difference between getting a much needed bye and getting to the SB and going home.    And I really do not think he would have been the target in that moment prior to "13 Seconds".

 

Also, even though not all of these throws necessarily ended with interceptions, they might have ended our drive, and our chance to put up 6 points, and again, that is disturbing when Allen is forcing passes to a covered receiver, much more than we see him do with other Bills receivers.

 

If I'm wrong here, then I should've never posted this, and I apologize.   But if there is something to this, hopefully the Bills are catching it as well.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

They fixed redzone.

[BADOLBILZ]

Simple.

 

The quality of their WR corps declined dramatically from 2020-2022.

 

First they lost explosiveness in 2021 (losing prime Brown and Beasley losing a step from 2020).

 

Then also their savvy in 2022 (losing the washed but technically still reliable versions Sanders and Beasley).

 

 

 

 

[TheBrownBear]

No offense, but you just based a novel length post off of one play you remember during a 17 game season.  (also, Gabe was open, it was just a bad throw by Josh). I just watched the tape.  Josh threw 5 RedZone interceptions.  Two were targets to Knox (Jets and Vikes), one for Diggs (Detroit), one to Davis (Vikes OT) and one that he tried to turf that was picked off by Jaire Alexander.  He had two other picks inside the 5 I recall (the throw to McKenzie against the Bears and the missed bomb to John Brown against the Fins in the wildcard round).

 

Diggs has no reason to complain about Davis seeing too many targets.  Diggs was the 5th most targeted receiver in the NFL and attracted about 60% more throws than Gabe.  

 

We were too predictable in goal to go situations and Josh wasn't reading the field quickly enough.  Those were the major issues in the RedZone, imo.

[John from Riverside]

On 2/5/2023 at 11:54 AM, BobBelcher said:

When Gabe Davis famously scored 4 TD's in the "13 seconds" game, I think Josh Allen might have developed a trust in Gabe Davis as being the go to guy when it is all on the line.

 

I.e. when the chips are down, when the pass rush is getting home and he needs to get rid of the ball in the red zone, Davis has become the guy that he will "throw it up" to whether or not he is actually open.  

 

As opposed to, pre-13 seconds, when Allen seemed to play more freely in these moments and/or looked for Diggs (the better receiver) which resulted in Allen having only ONE red-zone turnover in his career, to that point (might need to be checked on that, but pretty sure it was either 1 or 2).  

 

Allen is one of those QBs that plays very instinctively, as we know, and I think he might have put a little too much into Davis' career day.

 

Could it also be part of the reason Diggs has grown frustrated?  

 

Could it be that Diggs has picked up on this tendency as well?  

 

And could it be he is also frustrated because A) It isn't working; we aren't coming away with TDs in these situations B) Diggs isn't "him" in those moments and C) Diggs knows if Allen was targeting him instead in those moments - especially those in which he becomes "WIDE OPEN" - there would have been a better outcome for the team?

 

Perhaps Davis is hurting this offense more than just the obvious poor 50% catch rate and 10% drop rate.  Perhaps he is subconsciously hurting Allen's decision making as well?

 

It will be interesting to see where this goes next season i.e. What will Gabe's role be?  Will Allen continue forcing passes to him?  Or will he actually step up in a contract year and resemble "Playoff Gabe" during the regular season as well?

 

Now, having said all of that... 

 

I'd have to actually go back and look at film (that I do not have) for each of these turnovers to confirm this tendency to be true, but if memory serves me correct, I do remember Davis being the target on some of these throws, even when he was not at all open, which is the concerning part here. 

 

But for example, I definitely remember him being the target on Allen's OT interception against the Vikings which is one of many plays in that game that was the difference between winning and losing, the difference between having the #1 seed in the AFC and not having it... the difference between getting a much needed bye and getting to the SB and going home.    And I really do not think he would have been the target in that moment prior to "13 Seconds".

 

Also, even though not all of these throws necessarily ended with interceptions, they might have ended our drive, and our chance to put up 6 points, and again, that is disturbing when Allen is forcing passes to a covered receiver, much more than we see him do with other Bills receivers.

 

If I'm wrong here, then I should've never posted this, and I apologize.   But if there is something to this, hopefully the Bills are catching it as well.

The other team gets paid to play the game to
 

Defensive coordinators, make a living off of recognizing strengths, and finding ways to neutralize them

 

If the bills would just knuckle down and run the ball in the red zone and score touchdowns and not field goals, we would have less turnovers

[LABILLBACKER]

Everybody including Josh expected Gabe to blossom into this stud WR2.  But clearly that KC game was a huge outlier.  Gabe returned to be his usual inconsistent self as he led the team in drops.  Frankly I'd give Gabe WR4 targets and no more. This team needs a mental reset on offense.  Re-evaluate what your identity is,  if Kenny boy is up for the task. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Simple.

 

The quality of their WR corps declined dramatically from 2020-2022.

 

First they lost explosiveness in 2021 (losing prime Brown and Beasley losing a step from 2020).

 

Then also their savvy in 2022 (losing the washed but technically still reliable versions Sanders and Beasley).

 

 

 

 

It’s this times 1 million. The OL got worse. The WR’s got worse. Then wow, the QB played worse. Crazy.

 

Folks forget that Daryl Williams was  playing like All Pro RT in 2020. We replaced him with Spencer Brown. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by FireChans

[Dr.Sack]

Bring in Gronkowski and Mike Evans. 

[Mango]

We often force the ball to Diggs and look over open receivers in order to get him the ball, coverage be damned.

 

Diggs is the 4th most targeted WR in the league. Justin Jefferson had the 11th most targets in league history this season. Cousins throws the ball in his direction about 1.5 more times per game than Allen to Diggs.

 

JJ had a historical season for targets and Diggs is right behind him. Nobody is taking targets from Diggs.
 

Diggs whining about it and us even entertaining it are wild. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

No offense, but you just based a novel length post off of one play you remember during a 17 game season.  (also, Gabe was open, it was just a bad throw by Josh). I just watched the tape.  Josh threw 5 RedZone interceptions.  Two were targets to Knox (Jets and Vikes), one for Diggs (Detroit), one to Davis (Vikes OT) and one that he tried to turf that was picked off by Jaire Alexander.  He had two other picks inside the 5 I recall (the throw to McKenzie against the Bears and the missed bomb to John Brown against the Fins in the wildcard round).

 

Diggs has no reason to complain about Davis seeing too many targets.  Diggs was the 5th most targeted receiver in the NFL and attracted about 60% more throws than Gabe.  

 

We were too predictable in goal to go situations and Josh wasn't reading the field quickly enough.  Those were the major issues in the RedZone, imo.

 

Nail on the head here.  We couldn't or didn't run in the red zone, teams know this so play action is out.  Dorsey didn't seem to scheme much in the way of trickery or motion to get the defense out of position.  

[PrimeTime101]

On 2/5/2023 at 2:54 PM, BobBelcher said:

When Gabe Davis famously scored 4 TD's in the "13 seconds" game, I think Josh Allen might have developed a trust in Gabe Davis as being the go to guy when it is all on the line.

 

I.e. when the chips are down, when the pass rush is getting home and he needs to get rid of the ball in the red zone, Davis has become the guy that he will "throw it up" to whether or not he is actually open.  

 

As opposed to, pre-13 seconds, when Allen seemed to play more freely in these moments and/or looked for Diggs (the better receiver) which resulted in Allen having only ONE red-zone turnover in his career, to that point (might need to be checked on that, but pretty sure it was either 1 or 2).  

 

Allen is one of those QBs that plays very instinctively, as we know, and I think he might have put a little too much into Davis' career day.

 

Could it also be part of the reason Diggs has grown frustrated?  

 

Could it be that Diggs has picked up on this tendency as well?  

 

And could it be he is also frustrated because A) It isn't working; we aren't coming away with TDs in these situations B) Diggs isn't "him" in those moments and C) Diggs knows if Allen was targeting him instead in those moments - especially those in which he becomes "WIDE OPEN" - there would have been a better outcome for the team?

 

Perhaps Davis is hurting this offense more than just the obvious poor 50% catch rate and 10% drop rate.  Perhaps he is subconsciously hurting Allen's decision making as well?

 

It will be interesting to see where this goes next season i.e. What will Gabe's role be?  Will Allen continue forcing passes to him?  Or will he actually step up in a contract year and resemble "Playoff Gabe" during the regular season as well?

 

Now, having said all of that... 

 

I'd have to actually go back and look at film (that I do not have) for each of these turnovers to confirm this tendency to be true, but if memory serves me correct, I do remember Davis being the target on some of these throws, even when he was not at all open, which is the concerning part here. 

 

But for example, I definitely remember him being the target on Allen's OT interception against the Vikings which is one of many plays in that game that was the difference between winning and losing, the difference between having the #1 seed in the AFC and not having it... the difference between getting a much needed bye and getting to the SB and going home.    And I really do not think he would have been the target in that moment prior to "13 Seconds".

 

Also, even though not all of these throws necessarily ended with interceptions, they might have ended our drive, and our chance to put up 6 points, and again, that is disturbing when Allen is forcing passes to a covered receiver, much more than we see him do with other Bills receivers.

 

If I'm wrong here, then I should've never posted this, and I apologize.   But if there is something to this, hopefully the Bills are catching it as well.

Awful lot of assumptions going on here. And you know what they say about assumptions yes? 

[Airseven]

Allen’s accuracy becomes an even bigger issue when he has to throw into tighter spaces on a shorter field.

[H2o]

6 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Allen’s accuracy becomes an even bigger issue when he has to throw into tighter spaces on a shorter field.

Allen's accuracy becomes a bigger issue when he's running for his life on every play, while looking for a place to throw the ball, behind a second rate OL as well. 

 

Seriously, these narratives have been dried up long ago. He doesn't have any accuracy issues. All QB's miss throws. All QB's throw passes away. He's no different than any other, well, outside of the fact he played over half of the season with a torn ligament in his elbow. People need to let it go. 

[Mr. WEO]

On 2/5/2023 at 2:54 PM, BobBelcher said:

 

 

I'd have to actually go back and look at film (that I do not have) for each of these turnovers to confirm this tendency to be true, but if memory serves me correct, I do remember Davis being the target on some of these throws, even when he was not at all open, which is the concerning part here. 

 

 

If I'm wrong here, then I should've never posted this, and I apologize.   But if there is something to this, hopefully the Bills are catching it as well.

 

You could have done that before starting this thread--or tossed this in the other Gabe Davis thread.  

 

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Simple.

 

The quality of their WR corps declined dramatically from 2020-2022.

 

First they lost explosiveness in 2021 (losing prime Brown and Beasley losing a step from 2020).

 

Then also their savvy in 2022 (losing the washed but technically still reliable versions Sanders and Beasley).

 

 

 

 

 

Brown was a JAG but for one season, 2019, where it took him 115 targets (as WR1!!) to scratch a thousand yard season. 

[Captain_Quint]

I think the fans and the team thought they had something in Gabe that we all know isn't true now. 

 

I don't know if I blame them for trying to make him the #2 after the 4td playoff game or not. But it backfired this year for sure. Not really a knock against Gabe either, more the team and our expectations as fans. 

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

44 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You could have done that before starting this thread--or tossed this in the other Gabe Davis thread.  

 

 

Brown was a JAG but for one season, 2019, where it took him 115 targets (as WR1!!) to scratch a thousand yard season. 

 

 

His game was the deep ball and screens.    His 2020 was injury marred but when healthy he gave the Bills explosiveness in those aspects that they no longer had in 2021.   Really could have used a WR who could take a screen pass to the house in that Jax loss in 2021, for example.   And yes, he did take screen passes for TD's in Buffalo.  3 I believe.......Baltimore, Jets and Seattle.

 

By the end of the 2020 season the entire WR corps was banged up and the Bills went into the offseason saying they needed MORE explosiveness.........then their only move was to sign a washed, unexplosive vet in Emmanuel Sanders.    

 

They went into the 2022 offseason with a gaping hole at slot receiver and just threw a couple $2M contracts at it with McKenzie and Crowder.    Their season ended with a QB lacking confidence in the teams short game.    And for good reason.  

 

This is why they are where they are with their WR corps.   It's deteriorated greatly.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

His game was the deep ball and screens.    His 2020 was injury marred but when healthy he gave the Bills explosiveness in those aspects that they no longer had in 2021.   Really could have used a WR who could take a screen pass to the house in that Jax loss in 2021, for example.   And yes, he did take screen passes for TD's in Buffalo.  3 I believe.......Baltimore, Jets and Seattle.

 

By the end of the 2020 season the entire WR corps was banged up and the Bills went into the offseason saying they needed MORE explosiveness.........then their only move was to sign a washed, unexplosive vet in Emmanuel Sanders.    

 

They went into the 2022 offseason with a gaping hole at slot receiver and just threw a couple $2M contracts at it with McKenzie and Crowder.    Their season ended with a QB lacking confidence in the teams short game.    And for good reason.  

 

This is why they are where they are with their WR corps.   It's deteriorated greatly.

 

Sanders was at the end, I agree.  Brown was being chased down by LBs before the let him go.  A couple of screen passes to the house is nice, but the guy was nothing special.  How many screen s do the Bills run?  They don't need Brown (circa 2020) to run them.

[Drew21PA]

You know

 

wveryone talking about different things on this board

 

meanwhile I’m looking at the bucs and think man - we could possibly pick up value from a. Team that may be rebuilding and dumbing talent

 

wr2 in Godwin?  Or the like - not saying him - offensive line help?

 

how about them linebackers?  They are the nasty to team up with Milano !!!!