UPDATED - v3.0 (FINAL) on p.13 - Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft

[Process]

Oof. If that's how it shakes out you have to try and trade down. Maybe Seattle or Detroit look to move back into the first for Hooker.

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He has good hands. But he doesn't separate. That is why he is of limited use in the passing game. I don't think he will end up better than Knox. I don't think he will go 1st round. He will go somewhere in the 2nd I think. 

 

I do agree in most year Hyatt wouldn't go round 1 and he might not go round 1 this year either.... I'm just trying to piece together what I think the Bills would do faced with that board. And what they usually do is prioritise the positions they most heavily invest in during the pre-draft process and pick one of those players. Hyatt is a similar level of prospect to where I had Kaiir Elam last year. A highish 2nd round grade that could go back end of round 1 or could go first half of round 2. 

And we traded up for Elam😔 

 

If we want a WR- I hope we get one that can run routes. Addison going a couple picks before- I think Beane trades up.  I think he has a first round grade on him and wants a 1st round player-  like elam.  Let’s just hope he doesn’t have a first rd grade on Hyatt and trades up for him.  
 

Some good can come about from drafting Hyatt and starting Spencer Brown:  we’ll probably draft higher next year and won’t miss out on the real first rd WRs and OTs.  We can draft one @ 21
 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Bwhahahahahahahhahaha!! Grundles!!!!  You’ve been having nightly (and day) dreams of Bijan haven’t you?

I have visions of the 90s Bills and want Josh to finally get his version of Thurman Thomas. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0..... post free-agency some pieces have moved. I normally try and throw a trade or two in this one but struggled to find trades I liked enough to make happen. Anyway... flame away!!!

 

1.      Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

I don’t buy that the Panthers moved up to #1 before they had made a decision on a Quarterback. You don’t make that trade thinking you “might” like one of two guys, you make that move up when you have identified a Quarterback who can be the face of the franchise. I believe Bryce Young is the best in the class, and I suspect that is where Carolina has landed.

 

2.      Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

If Young is off the board I don’t think it is an absolute lock that the Texans go Quarterback. If someone wanted to trade up and give them a boatload of picks I think they’d listen, but ultimately I suspect they end up deciding that this is the last of their years drafting in the top 5 and so need to take a shot on Stroud as the man to execute their new Shanahan style offense.

 

3.      Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

This is also a prime trade up spot if a team wants to jump Indianapolis for a Quarterback, but from the rumours I’m hearing the Cardinals want one of Anderson or Tyree Wilson and are not willing to move back so far that both are out of reach. Anderson is the safer of the two and I expect him to be the first non-QB off the board if Arizona stays at #3.

 

4.      Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

In version 1.0 I had Will Levis at this spot but that was before the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their head coach. Having seen the success he had in Philadelphia coordinating a multiple offense with a dual threat Quarterback they might feel comfortable swinging for the fences on the raw potential of Anthony Richardson.

 

5.      Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

I have never bought the “Carter sliding out of the top 10” buzz. I get the character concerns but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of his talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior.

 

6.      Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Corner, Illinois

The trading away of Jeff Okudah makes it even more likely that the Lions are targeting the best corner in the class at #6. From what I read who that is depends on which team you ask with Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all being ranked #1 on some boards. But the rumour mill is attaching Witherspoon to the Lions most frequently so he is the pick.

 

7.      Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

In the event that the Raiders don’t go Quarterback they are in prime position to address needs on the offensive line or at corner. Knowing that they are hitching their wagon to the injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback I expect protection is the order of the day at #7, especially as the cornerback depth in round 2 is stronger than the offensive line depth. Skoronski could start immediately at right tackle or inside at guard.

 

8.      Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

The Falcons pass rush has been a disaster for a while now. I thought they should have addressed it in the top 10 last year when they reached for Drake London, they can’t ignore it again. Wilson is a freak and he reminds me of Marcus Davenport who the Saints traded way up to acquire when new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was their defensive line coach.

 

9.      Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

The Bears could happily trade back from #1 to #9 because they have needs basically everywhere. Johnson is the best tackle in this class and plugging him in at left tackle in front of former Buckeyes teammate Justin Fields as the Quarterback heads into a critical year 3 is a major upgrade on the blindside.

 

10.   Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. Van Ness is more potential than production at this stage but he feels like a fit both in terms of physical profile and character.

 

11.   Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The Titans are either going offensive line or wide receiver at this spot. I know they signed Andre Dillard as a free agent but he has been a career backup despite being a former first round pick of the Eagles and he can play inside at guard too. If the chance to land one of the premier tackles presents itself that is the direction I think they should go.

 

12.   Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The current consensus is moving towards Smith-Njigba being the first receiver drafted and that is understandable. In a draft class with very few sure things he has a high floor and at the very least should be a productive player from the slot. I’m sure the Texans would love to use him as a move receiver lining up all over the formation in their new offense.

 

13.   New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson  

The Jets edge position has already seen a ton of resources during the Robert Salah era but whether it has been injuries, disappointing production, or clunky scheme fits they still haven’t nailed it. When Saleh was in San Francisco they continued to pour resources into the defensive line until they got it right and with the offensive line guys off the board that is what I could see the Jets doing.

 

14.   New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

Part of me thinks Bill Belichick is just trolling us all but I am going to take the bait with regards to the Patriots love affair with Flowers. Allegedly they spent his top 30 visit teaching him the entire offense, he does have quick twitch acceleration which is a need, and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east. A lot of the pieces fit.

 

15.   Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

Someone who is quite plugged into Green Bay told me recently that if Skoronski is still on the board he is the Packers’ guy. The bad news for them is I don’t think he will be. I do think Tight End is in play here but Dalton Kincaid isn’t a complete tight end, doesn’t block and as such doesn’t really fit their offense. When in doubt with the Packers pick a defensive back and they do have a hole at safety that Branch could fill.

 

16.   Washington Commanders – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Maybe the Commanders really will go into a season with Sam Howell as their starter, but new ownership usually brings pressure to find a Quarterback and if Levis has slid this far I can imagine Washington feeling as though they have to take him.

 

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Personally I have Gonzalez as the best corner in the class and he would be incredible value here for the Steelers. I think their priority is left tackle, but there isn’t one left at this spot and as such I think they would prioritise the premium positional need at corner over a right tackle only like Darnell Wright. Gonzalez starts opposite Patrick Peterson day 1.

 

18.   Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

This is the first spot that really makes sense for me for Bijan unless the Eagles take him at #10. A running back, even one as good as him, is a first round luxury but for a team with two first round picks it could be justified especially as the Lions lost their power back Jamaal Williams to the Saints in free agency.

 

19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

The Buccs cut their left tackle Donovan Smith earlier in the offseason and their preference seems to be to move all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the blindside. That would leave a gap at right tackle and Wright could slide straight in and start in front of Baker Mayfield.

 

20.   Seattle Seahawks – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida

Seattle hit a home run at offensive tackle last year with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Adding Torrence at guard would give them one of the better lines in the NFL and he is a scheme fit for the way they want to run the ball up the middle with Kenneth Walker.

 

21.   Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU

Keenan Allen has been a stalwart for the Chargers but he turns 31 on day one of the draft and missed time hurt in 2022. Mike Williams is an almost certain cap casualty (or major re-negotiation) after the season as his 2024 cap number is $32m. This team needs to look to the future at receiver. Tom Telesco has a type at the position – he values size – so Johnston is the obvious fit.

 

22.   Baltimore Ravens – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

With OBJ in the building and Lamar increasingly looking like he could still be on the roster come draft day I think an edge rusher becomes the priority for the Ravens. 2021 first rounder Odafe Oweh flashed as a rookie in a situational role but recorded just 3 sacks last season despite 6 starts. Smith is a bit of a project technique wise but he is an impressive physical specimen.

 

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

This is sprint to the podium time for the Vikings who probably couldn’t imagine one of the top three corners sliding this far. Patrick Peterson left in free agency, Cam Dantzler was cut and their gamble on Andrew Booth in the second round last year despite questionable medicals didn’t immediately work out as he managed just 6 games and ended up on IR. Porter starts day 1.

 

24.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

The Jaguars are another team glad to see the corners fall down the board a little. 2nd year player Tyson Campbell had a breakout season in 2022 but the corner spot opposite him was a weakness all year. If the offense keeps scoring then teams will be passing a lot on Jacksonville. Having two capable corners is a must.

 

25.   New York Giants – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

The Giants are bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley, but receiver remains a need. Addison’s best fit is in a creative offense that is going to move him around the formation and exploit mismatches. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are the perfect duo to exploit his skillset.

 

26.   Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

If Kincaid gets to #26 he will get no further. Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency and while Jake Ferguson had his moments as a rookie he is an athletically limited day 3 draft pick going into year 2. Kincaid, in contrast, is a genuine weapon in the passing game for a team committed to putting more around CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott.

 

27.   Buffalo Bills – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up? If they don’t I’d lean towards receiver as the pick even though Hyatt is  arguably a bit of a reach. The Bills have had a lot of receivers, including Hyatt, in for top 30 visits and that is usually a strong indicator of where this regime are at in terms of positional priority.

 

28.   Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame

I think defensive back is definitely in play for the Bengals here, they lost both starting safeties in free agency and didn’t bring Eli Apple back at corner. But they did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last year and the depth of the class at corner might lead them to think they can wait on that spot. They also lost Hayden Hurst in free agency so a tight end that blocks and can be a safety valve in the passing game for Joe Burrow might be too good to pass on.

 

29.   New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, Defensive Tackle, Michigan

The Saints were not the strongest at defensive tackle in 2022, and that is before they lost both starters in free agency to teams within their division. Mazi Smith is already proven as a space eater but he still feels like he has untapped potential as a penetrator given his physical profile. He’d be an immediate starter.

 

30.   Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one.

 

31.   Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Frank Clark hadn’t lived up to his contract the past two seasons, but he contributed for Chiefs in the playoffs and his departure means they are thin at edge. They drafted Karlaftis last year and he had six sacks as a rookie but they need a more dynamic fast twitch threat and Anudike-Uzomah from just up the road at Kansas State has explosive burst and bend to hunt down Quarterbacks.

Thanks GB. I really enjoy when you do these. I like Hyatt better than the Addison pick in the TSW draft, but I'm still not excited at all by the wr options we may have in the 1st. But I am at least open to it. At least Hyatt has a little more speed to him and a little more length.

 

I am not a college football guy, so I tend to watch videos and read more as the draft season starts. I came across this video below. Is it true about the Art Briles (sp) offense and the wr success when they discuss Hyatt?

 

 

[NewEra]

50 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I have visions of the 90s Bills and want Josh to finally get his version of Thurman Thomas. 

Do you have visions of Wil Wolford, Jim Ritcher, Glenn Parker, Kent Hull and House Ballard too?  Becasue those guys made things happen.  We have Spencer Brown if you didn’t know

Edited April 16, 2023 by NewEra

[schoolhouserock]

Assuming the Bills stay at 27, I would be A-OK with Hyatt.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Bijan isn't just a RB. He's compared to Saquon Barkley who's an offensive weapon. 

 

We know that they met with him at the combine, but don't know if there were any other meetings. Remember they met with Rousseau virtually, although it was during COVID epidemic. 

 

Who said that Detroit was done with Swift? He seemed to be a part of their playoff drive last season. They also allowed Williams to leave, not Swift. 

I totally agree with this

 

He got more than 8 carries three times all season. There have been no contract talks at all with him heading into the final year of his rookie deal and the reason they let Williams leave was about money. Swift is still cheap for a year. They may well ride him this year or they might have him in a jobshare with Montgomery or they might draft a guy to start. But Swift won't be a Lion beyond 2023. 

 

On the Rousseau thing, yep, he is the only 1st rounder they haven't "had in the building" and it was because you couldn't have anyone in the building. But you were still limited to how many zooms you could have and the Bills had one with Groot. If we find out between now and the draft that the Bills have had Bijan in I will believe he is in play for them.... but even then I'd be very surprised if it was with a trade up. 

57 minutes ago, LEBills said:

 

For Hyatt, the problem is he basically only had free releases in college and so unless you are going to only put him in the slot you have to hope he can learn to be an outside player like Chark or MVS who he is much thinner than. So I think you are hoping he can develop into that which is a little rich for Rd 1. Matt Harmon does his reception perception for the draft class each year and Hyatt basically only was good at 9s and below average at everything else. A little too much risk for rd 1 for me. Rd 2 I could live with or wait for Tyler Scott or Trey Palmer.

 

 

 

I agree with a lot of this, but I'd rather have Hyatt who I agree is too much risk in a normal 1st round class at #27 than I'd have either Palmer or Scott who are both 4th rounders to me in the 2nd. 

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He got more than 8 carries three times all season. There have been no contract talks at all with him heading into the final year of his rookie deal and the reason they let Williams leave was about money. Swift is still cheap for a year. They may well ride him this year or they might have him in a jobshare with Montgomery or they might draft a guy to start. But Swift won't be a Lion beyond 2023. 

 

On the Rousseau thing, yep, he is the only 1st rounder they haven't "had in the building" and it was because you couldn't have anyone in the building. But you were still limited to how many zooms you could have and the Bills had one with Groot. If we find out between now and the draft that the Bills have had Bijan in I will believe he is in play for them.... but even then I'd be very surprised if it was with a trade up. 

 

I agree with a lot of this, but I'd rather have Hyatt who I agree is too much risk in a normal 1st round class at #27 than I'd have either Palmer or Scott who are both 4th rounders to me in the 2nd. 

Sorry that was confusing how I worded that. I meant Hyatt in the second would be good for me or wait until later rounds for Scott or Palmer. If we went Hyatt, at least we are getting someone with an elite trait I will say that. 
 

Can’t wait for the draft to be here

[Chaos]

When I look at the Bills main strength, it is the fact that punt fewer times than any other team in the league, in the regular season.  This means they are already about the best at moving the ball between the 20's.   There weakness seems to be a type of toughness and clutchiness (probably not a real word) in the playoffs. In 2022, the Bills were ninth in redzone offense.    I don't see how Hyatt really moves the needle for the Bills.   The Bills don't use TE's well between the 20s (my theory, is that there is no need to) but do use Knox well in the redzone. I think Mayer would do more to improve the Bills redzone offense than Hyatt would.  I would be sad to take Hyatt, and see Mayer go to the Bengals on the next pick. 

Edited April 16, 2023 by Chaos

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Sorry that was confusing how I worded that. I meant Hyatt in the second would be good for me or wait until later rounds for Scott or Palmer. If we went Hyatt, at least we are getting someone with an elite trait I will say that. 
 

Can’t wait for the draft to be here

Just wait til we draft Mazi Smith

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Best Mock I've seen anywhere! 

 

I'm only hesistant to declare Young 1 and Stroud 2 because of the size issue. Carolina always seems to me to be a big guy franchise with a QB.

[DJB]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I don’t see the Bills taking this type of receiver at that pick. What he excels at can be found later in the draft. He has decent height and is thin, weighed in under 180 and is 6’0 tall. 

His route tree was also horrendous. Basically only did verticals 

 

Of all the WR’s we are rumoured to be in on he’s my least favourite 

[Coach Tuesday]

If the draft falls this way I don’t know who in the room is going to talk McBeane out of Mazi Smith - they simply won’t be able to help themselves.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think Bergeron is going first round. I like him, I think he is going to be a very solid pro. But I don't think he goes round 1. 

 

And I have said elsewhere I am pretty sure the Bills in particular are not going OL round 1. I would be absolutely up for them doing so. But I don't think they will. 

 

I do see the Chark comparison on Hyatt. I think that may very well be his kind of ceiling. But if he can stay healthier than Chark that is still a bona fide NFL #2 production wise. He has had a 1,000 yard season after all. I think Hyatt can be a low volume, high production type #2 receiver. That wouldn't normally be a pick I'd love in round 1. I don't love it here either, but in this class I could probably live with it.

Awesome stuff, Bill! I think the corners may go earlier than you project and I don’t love the Bills’ pick, but all in all this is great. Incidentally, did you see this Athletic piece in which they do a re-draft of the 2022 first round? I thought it was good: https://theathletic.com/4408273/2023/04/14/nfl-redraft-2022-sauce-gardner/

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, DJB said:

His route tree was also horrendous. Basically only did verticals 

 

Of all the WR’s we are rumoured to be in on he’s my least favourite 

 

He is a one trick pony, 100%. The thing is it is a valuable trick and the thing he does better than most 9 route guys is track the ball. DeSean Jackson is kinda the high end comparison. He was a 2nd round pick, Hyatt should be a second round pick. And he might be. But in this crap draft he might well get pushed up. 

 

I'm interested in what other moves people think the Bills might make in the event the board falls as this did and they can't trade back. Not moves people want them to make. But based on what we know and where we are at, alternative moves that people think they might actually make here. Because Hyatt isn't a choice I love but he made the most sense to me based on what we know about this regime both in terms of what they have done this spring and their history. 

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

If the draft falls this way I don’t know who in the room is going to talk McBeane out of Mazi Smith - they simply won’t be able to help themselves.

 

Think this IS a realistic alternative. 

[Beck Water]

On 2/5/2023 at 1:08 PM, GunnerBill said:

Here it is folks, version 1 of my 2023 mock draft and it is a two rounder. Version 2 will be a 1 rounder with trades after free agency and version 3 drops draft week. Enjoy and feel free to comment below!!

 

- - - ROUND 1 - - -

1 – Chicago Bears – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

There is a fair amount to unpick with this pick. Firstly, do the Bears stick with Justin Fields? My strong sense is they will. Then the question becomes is there a team wanting to jump Houston for their Quarterback of choice? Likely there will be, but for now I move to question three… if not Jalen Carter or Will Anderson? Positional value would point you towards Anderson but remember Ryan Poles, the Bears GM came from Kansas City where their best pass rusher is Chris Jones from the interior. Therefore, for now, I edge towards Carter being the pick.

 

2 – Houston Texans – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

The Texans are going to take a Quarterback, the question is which one? I think if DeMeco Ryans is going to bring a Shanahan style offense with him that probably suits Bryce Young as a sound decision maker and accurate distributor the best.

 

3 – Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

The Cardinals, like the Bears, have needs right across the defensive line with JJ Watt’s retirement. Anderson, to me, is a better fit as a stand up edge rusher in a 3-4 than he is playing with his hand in the dirt as a 4-3 end. Anderson wasn’t quite as dominant in 2022 as he was in 2021 but he is still a legitimate top 5 talent.

 

4 – Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Whoever the Colts hire as Head Coach they need to get out of their cycle of damaged goods veterans at Quarterback and finally land a successor to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. The early buzz is that Chris Ballard is enamored with Levis’s size and tools. There is some inaccuracy and recklessness on the film that concerns you but he is likely the highest ceiling Quarterback in the class.

 

5 – Seattle Seahawks – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

If I was running the Seattle Seahawks I think I would take a Quarterback despite Geno Smith’s career year. However, I don’t expect them to do that. They addressed offensive line last year and I think their focus in this draft will switch to defensive line where Tyree Wilson fits the profile of the bigger ends that John Schneider and Pete Carroll have traditionally likes.

 

6 – Detroit Lions – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

The NFL Draft just keeps falling the Lions way at the moment. Two years ago they were able to land a franchise offensive tackle, last year they were able to land a franchise pass rusher and now they get their choice of corners. There are three or four contenders to be the first corner off the board but I am giving them Joey Porter Jnr from Penn State who had 11 pass breakups as a junior this past year.

 

7 – Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

At this stage who knows what the Raiders plan is at Quarterback? They could certainly go that direction here but I suspect that they would prefer a veteran. Which likely narrows their choice down to offensive line or corner. Skoronski is the highest floor offensive lineman in the class but I’m not sure whether he has the length to be an elite blindside protector. The Raiders have Kolton Miller at left tackle so could afford to slot Skoronski in at right tackle or guard.

 

8 – Atlanta Falcons – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

I am not really sure what the plan is for the Falcons. Arthur Smith is about to go into year three, they still have no discernable identity and no Quarterback.  Maybe they pick a signal caller here but they also have needs on the defensive line and Myles Muprhy would be an immediate upgrade to their pass rush. His length makes him a natural scheme fit.

 

9 – Carolina Panthers – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

The Panthers (Frank Reich’s new team), like the Colts (Frank Reich’s old team), have tried the approach of free agents and trade acquisitions since losing a former #1 overall pick at Quarterback. I feel like they will select one in the first round of this draft and they are a very real candidate to try and trade up. Here I have them taking Stroud who requires some technical refinement to succeed in the pros but has an intriguing set of tools to work with.

 

10 – Philadelphia Eagles – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Rarely can a team have been in such a strong position as the Eagles, in the Superbowl, with two first round picks to come in the following draft. They don’t have a ton of critical free agents either, but James Bradberry is one they do have, and their star corner on the opposite side Darius Slay is 32. So I expect this pick to be a corner and Gonzalez’s length makes him look like a natural fit in Jonathan Gannon’s defense.

 

11 – Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

Taylor Lewan has been a fantastic servant to the Titans since they made him their first round selection in 2014 but is nearly 32, has been hurt two of the last three seasons and saves them almost $15m against the cap to cut. I think they might decide to move on and Jones is exactly the big physical mauler I can see them loving.

 

12 – Houston Texans – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

Whichever Quarterback the Texans take at #2 they need to give that guy some weapons. This choice, a bit like my choice of Bryce Young, is made on the basis that they want to try and run a Shanahan style stretch zone version of the west coast offense which stretches the field horizontally and gets creative in its use of playmakers. Addison isn’t an archetypal NFL #1 receiver, but could he be a version of Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk? Yes.

 

13 – New York Jets – Paris Johnson Jnr, Ohio State

The Jets offensive line seems to have been in a state of flux for years. One presumes they are about to give up on the Mekhi Becton experiment but Alijah Vera-Tucker was playing at an all-pro type level before getting hurt last season. Plug Johnson in beside him at left tackle and at least one side of that line is solidified.

 

14 – New England Patriots – Devon Witherspoon, Cornerback, Illinois

At times last year Bill Belichick was playing four safeties in his secondary, which tells you all you need to know about what he thinks of his current crop of corners. Witherspoon has been shooting up draft boards as people have started to dig into his film and his ability to hold up in man on island will have Belichick salivating.

 

15 – Green Bay Packers – Michael Meyer, Tight End, Notre Dame

If you are going to run that Shanahan style scheme then you are going to need a tight end or two and that tight end better be able to block as well as catch. Both Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis are impending free agents. If neither are back than Michael Meyer is the perfect fit for Matt LaFleur, whoever he has under center.

 

16 – Washington Commanders – Cam Smith, Cornerback, South Carolina

Another team who seem to have no obvious plan at Quarterback. They could gamble on Anthony Richardson out of Florida at this spot but I wonder if with a lame duck owners, and a lame duck head coach, the more obvious move isn’t to shore up the porous secondary and let the inevitable new regime in 2024 take a swing on a Quarterback. In which case Cam Smith is the best defensive back left on the board.

 

17 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Bryan Bresee, Defensive Tackle, Clemson

For the Steelers this pick should be “best trenches player available.” For a team traditionally renowned for its toughness and grit they have become a bit of a soft touch in recent years capable of being bullied at the line. Bresse can slide right into the spot that Larry Ogunjobi, a free agent, has occupied.

 

18 – Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

Remember what I said about the draft keeps falling for the Lions? Here we are again. Sure, positional need would suggest Bijan Robinson is a bit of a luxury pick at #18 but having addressed their major need earlier in the round they can afford the luxury of taking the best player available. Robinson is a dynamic player and adds to a scary looking offense core with Amon-Ra St Brown and Jameson Williams.

 

19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

This is a bit of a punt, but while the Buccs defense needs a lot of work if they can get their offensive line healthy it isn’t the worst situation to drop a rookie Quarterback into. I think Richardson will find his way into the first round given the number of unsettled Quarterback situations, maybe he makes the short trip from Gainsville to Tampa.

 

20 – Seattle Seahawks – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

The Seahawks got great production out of rookie corner Tariq Woolen in 2022, but relying on a guy who plays with his aggressive style means you are going to need good safety play behind him. Brian Branch is a versatile defender who can play outside, in the box or as the deep guy and would improve the Seattle secondary.

 

21 – Los Angeles Chargers – Quintin Johnson, Wide Receiver, TCU

For all the pre-season talk about their offensive weaponry the Chargers found it difficult to push the ball down the field in 2022. Keenan Allen has been a terrific player, but he missed time hurt and turns 31 during draft weekend. Mike Williams continues to a decent contested catch guy but doesn’t offer much else. Quintin Johnson is a prototypical NFL #1 receiver and he would allow Allen to make a Larry Fitzgerald esque late career move into the slot.

 

22 – Baltimore Ravens – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The Ravens obviously have to decide what to do with Lamar Jackson and that might affect what they do in the draft. However, whoever the Quarterback is needs a better wide receiver corps than the oft injured Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay to throw to. Smith-Njigba might do his best work from the slot but he is still a significant upgrade in Baltimore.

 

23 – Minnesota Vikings – Kelee Ringo, Cornerback, Georgia

The Vikings secondary was a problem at the end for Mike Zimmer and it fared no better following his departure. Ringo is excellent in zone coverage and has instincts that you look for at the next level, though he will need to improve his ball skills to maximise his talents.

 

24 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Anton Harrison, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

The Jags came on strong down the stretch and the work they have done on their defense started to pay dividends. Jawaan Taylor has never lived up to his pre-draft hype at right tackle and is an impending free agent, so it is possible the Jags take his successor here in Harrison who demonstrated impressive pass protection skills.

 

25 – New York Giants – Trenton Simpson, Linebacker, Clemson

The Giants need receiver help but I expect them to be aggressive in that regard in free agency and the value doesn’t really match up with that need in any event here. Therefore I can see them going to the defensive side of the ball where Wink Martindale’s overachieving unit desperately needs an infusion of athleticism at the second level and Simpson is a demon in pass coverage.

 

26 – Dallas Cowboys – Antonio Johnson, Safety, Texas A&M

The Cowboys haven’t quite got the secondary right and it just so happens that the best player available on the board at this point is a defensive back. Johnson is every bit the modern NFL safety. Excellent in coverage. Rangey, with great instincts and a sound tackler. His ball skills could be improved but otherwise he has the lot.

 

27 – Buffalo Bills – Rashee Rice, Wide Receiver, SMU

This is not a great spot for the Bills. The true 1st round grades at offensive line and wide receiver are exhausted, and the two options at safety are now off the board. In this scenario I think they’d be open to a trade back or maybe they’d be willing to forgo positional value for a guard but possibly the smarter play is to take a shot at a receiver. Rashee Rice is probably the most natural fit in their offense of the guys that remain.

 

28 – Cincinnati Bengals – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

Hayden Hurst did a nice job as a one year band aid at tight end for the Bengals and maybe they bring him back if they decide not to extend Tee Higgins. Otherwise they could draft a replacement and in Kincaid they find another dynamic receiving weapon for Joe Burrow.

 

29 – New Orleans Saints – Drew Sanders, Linebacker, Arkansas

The Saints have San Francisco’s original first rounder in the most convoluted way possible (traded to Miami – for a pick from Houston in exchange for Laremy Tunsil - to take Trey Lance, then Miami traded to Denver for Bradley Chubb and eventually the Broncos sent it to the Saints for the rights to Sean Payton). New Orleans has got great value out Demario Davis who they signed as a free agent in 2018 (a 1st or 2nd team all pro in each of the past 4 seasons) but he is now 34 and as such they need a replacement. Sanders originally went to Alabama as a 5 star recruit edge rusher but converted to a mike linebacker before transferring to Arkansas where had an outstanding 2022 season.

 

30 – Kansas City Chiefs – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

The Chiefs traded away their big play threat when they sent Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins last spring. Their offense didn’t exactly “miss a beat” but the mid-season trade for Kadarius Toney suggests to me they’d like to bring that cheat code style speed back into the building. Hyatt isn’t a first round talent for most teams but in the Hill role in the Chiefs offense I think he could be.

 

31 – Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

I am not sure where Van Ness will go and the consensus on him is a bit all over the place. He is a typical Iowa “big end”. I think he has a bit more natural explosion than someone like AJ Epenesa coming into the NFL but he has the same room for further development in terms of pass rush moves. That said, he sort of fits the profile of a Howie Roseman defensive lineman. Tough, powerful, and relentless hustle. Feels like a natural replacement for Brandon Graham who may be heading for retirement.

 

- - - ROUND 2 - - - 

 

32 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

The Steelers have a need at corner with Cam Sutton a pending free agent. Ahkello Witherspoon and Levi Wallace are serviceable placeholders but they are not the long term answer. Deonte Banks has the right mix of zone and man coverage skills for the Steelers’ hybrid scheme.

 

33 – Houston Texans – Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame

The Texans starting edge players last year were Ogbonnia Okoronkwo who is a free agent and Jerry Hughes who will be 35 by the time the 2023 season begins. They desperately need some youth at the position and Foskey, while raw, has a high ceiling as a 4-3 pass rusher.

 

34 – Arizona Cardinals – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida

The Cardinals have seven pending free agents across the offensive line, including both starting guards. Torrence would be a day 1 starter at either spot.

 

35 – Indianapolis Colts – Josh Downs, Wide Receiver, North Carolina

The Colts added Alec Pierce at receiver in the second round last year and he had an okay rookie year as the #2 to Michael Pittman. Downs would be another solid addition to that room with the ability to operate from the slot for whoever the next Colts Quarterback might be.

 

36 – Los Angeles Rams – Cam Phillips III, Cornerback, Utah

The Rams could go in almost in any direction with this pick. Their roster is getting close to the re-set point. Cam Phillips is one of my favourite payers in the class and his performance against Jordan Addison last season suggests to me he can, despite his size, play on the boundary even though he may be best at nickel.

 

37 – Seattle Seahawks – Ika Siaka, Defensive Tackle, Baylor

The Seahawks run defense was pretty porous in 2022, so much so that I considered giving them the massive Siaka with their second first round pick to plug the gap at 1 tech. If he gets to this spot he makes too much sense to pass.

 

38 – Las Vegas Raiders – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Raiders might yet decide to bring back Josh Jacobs, but if they don’t they need a running back. Josh McDaniels has always had a power run element to his offenses even when Tom Brady was his Quarterback so maybe he replaces one Alabama prospect with another?

 

39 – Carolina Panthers – Jordan Battle, Safety, Alabama

The Panthers roster is actually pretty solid aside from Quarterback, but with Jeremy Chinn now playing as more of a big nickel they could stand to upgrade at safety. Battle is an aggressive player in coverage with a reasonable amount of scheme versatility.

 

40 – New Orleans Saints – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

The Saints made a start to the overhaul of their receiving room last year when they selected Chris Olave who had a cracking rookie year. Flowers can operate from the slot or as a move receiver on the outside and would replace the free agent Jarvis Landry.

 

41 – Tennessee Titans – Kayshon Boutte, Wide Receiver, LSU

And here comes the run on receivers. The Titans needed help at receiver before they traded away AJ Brown. Treylon Burks had some injury issues as a rookie but came on down the stretch and is talented. Boutte looked like a superstar as a freshman and hasn’t quite hit the heights since but the raw ability is there.

 

42 – Cleveland Browns – John Michael Schmitz, Center, Minnesota

The Browns got fantastic value out of Ethan Pocic on a 1 year contract at center in 2022. However, he played so well that he is likely to cash in during free agency and with Bitonio, Teller and Conklin all on big deals Cleveland probably can’t drop more money on the offensive line. Schmitz is easily the best center in the class and would give them solid cheap labour.

 

43 – New York Jets – Noah Sewell, Linebacker, Oregon

The Jets have two starting linebackers about to hit free agency and the other, CJ Mosely, is about to turn 31. Sewell has a certain amount of positional flexibility but I think probably plays the strong side in Robert Saleh’s defense as a rookie before sliding into the middle when Mosely moves on.

 

44 – Atlanta Falcons – Tuili Tuipolotu, Defensive Tackle, USC

Back to back picks spent on the defensive front for the Falcons as they go with Tuipolotu to compliment Myles Murphy and provide some interior pass rush. He would be their starting 5 tech on day 1 and has the versatility to kick outside in 4 man fronts.

 

45 – Green Bay Packers – Christopher Smith, Safety, Georgia

The Green Bay Packers spend more day 1 and 2 picks on defensive backs than any team in the league over the past decade (9 in 10 years). With Adrian Amos an impending free agent, don’t be surprised if they make that 10 in 11.

 

46 – New England Patriots – Dawand Jones, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

Isaiah Wynn has become another draft bust in New England after a promising start to his career and they will be looking for a starting tackle. My pro comp for Dawand Jones is actually Trent Brown who will start for the Pats on the blind side. Huge man, bit raw, but with potential.

 

47 – Washington Commanders – Cody Mauch, Offensive Tackle, North Dakota State

The Commanders need help up front, especially with expiring contracts at guard. A lot of people believe Mauch, a road grading mauler of a college left tackle, will be best suited to guard in the NFL given length concerns.

 

48 – Detroit Lions – Darnell Washington, Tight End, Georgia

The Lions traded away TJ Hockenson for a 2nd round pick (not this one but pick #55) and they may well look for his replacement in this round. Washington strikes me as more of a Dan Campbell type player than Hockenson. Tough, physical blocker and a reliable if unspectacular pass catcher.

 

49 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Nathaniel Dell, Wide Receiver, Houston

I know what people will say, “the Steelers don’t need another receiver!” But their model is to take them on day 2 or early day 4 almost every year. Dell is small and projects as strictly slot only at the next level but Pittsburgh were willing to take Calvin Austin with a similar profile in the 4th last year.

 

50 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DJ Turner, Cornerback, Michigan

The Buccs have multiple pending free agents in the defensive backfield and not much cap room to address them. That includes starting nickel corner Logan Ryan who is not expected to return so DJ Turner might be an immediate replacement.

 

51 – Seattle Seahawks – Jack Campbell, Linebacker, Iowa

Seattle didn’t replace Bobby Wagner last year, but they get the opportunity to do so here. Campbell is a bit of a throwback in the respect of being a physical tone setter in the middle of the field but he would be a good compliment for Jordyn Brooks' skillset.

 

52 – Miami Dolphins – Luke Musgrave, Tight End, Oregon State

Mike Gesicki played on the franchise tag last year but he has always been a poor scheme fit for what Mike McDaniel wants to do offensively. Musgrave is much more that sort of player. Able to provide inline blocking and while he doesn’t have a lot of college production as a receiving threat, not did George Kittle. He has the upside to be a weapon in this offense.

 

53 – Los Angeles Chargers – Emmanuel Forbes, Cornerback, Mississippi State

The Jaguars’ comeback in the wildcard playoff round demonstrated the issues that still exist in Brandon Staley’s defense. Forbes is raw, but he is the type of aggressive ball hawking corner that the Chargers coach loves. He could be a difference maker.

 

54 – Chicago Bears – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

When making their decision at #1 overall between a defensive tackle and a defensive end the overall depth of the relative classes will play a part. Nolan Smith is good value here and would provide an immediate upgrade to their pass rush.

 

55 – Detroit Lions – Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn

Now the run on the next tier of edge rushers is on. On the face of it the Lions are well stocked here with Aiden Hutchinson, Charles Harris and Josh Paschal. But Hall has a really intriguing skill set and a high ceiling and could play on the edge or in the stand up rush linebacker role the Lions used James Houston for in 2022.

 

56 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Cedric Tillman, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

The Jaguars had success with free agents Zay Jones and Christian Kirk in 2022, but Marvin Jones is now out of contract and Tillman is the kind of vertical threat receiver which would round out this set of offensive weapons for Trevor Lawrence.

 

57 – New York Giants – Joe Tippmann, Center, Wisconsin

The Giants are in an awkward spot again. In both rounds they end up right at the drop off in tiers of receiver hits. Therefore, maybe they further reinforce the offensive line with Joe Tippmann who some shrewd evaluators really like.

 

58 – Dallas Cowboys – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Dallas might also be disappointed to miss out on the second round run on receivers, but they do also have a need opposite Dexter Lawrence on the defensive line. Anudike-Uzomah is raw but he actually reminds me of a younger version of Lawrence and will add some explosion to the pass rush.

 

59 – Buffalo Bills – Andrew Vorhees, Guard, USC

Having addressed offensive weaponry in round 1, the Bills come back and address offensive line in round 2. People seem all over the map on Vorhees. Some think he is a borderline 1st rounder, others see him as a late day 2 pick. I think he is a fit for the Bills on the basis that his pass pro is better than his run blocking.

 

60 – Cincinnati Bengals – JL Skinner, Safety, Boise State

Both of Cincinnati’s starting safeties are free agents. They did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last spring, but he is more a free safety coverage type. Skinner can play in the box, is aggressive and hits hard.

 

61 – Carolina Panthers – Zach Charbonnet, Running Back, UCLA

The Panthers earned this pick through trading away Christian McCaffrey. They may well spend it on replacing him. Charbonnet is a powerful runner and a decent pass catcher out of the backfield too.

 

62 – Kansas City – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

The one position that seems to have been in constant flux since the Chiefs started this run is left tackle. Who knows what they do with Orlando Brown this offseason, but Wright has experience at both left and right tackle in college. He might take some time can but can end up a quality starter.

 

63 – Philadelphia Eagles – Matthew Bergeron, Offensive Tackle, Syracuse

The Eagles have some offensive line decisions pending. Jason Kelce will almost certainly retire, which probably means Landon Dickerson sliding into center and Isaac Seumalo is a free agent. Add that to question marks around how long Lane Johnson can play and a versatile guy like Bergeron would hold some attraction.

 

 

Okay TBD.... flame away!!!

 

Rashee Rice over Darnell Wright or Zay Flowers?

 

Huh.

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is a one trick pony, 100%. The thing is it is a valuable trick and the thing he does better than most 9 route guys is track the ball. DeSean Jackson is kinda the high end comparison. He was a 2nd round pick, Hyatt should be a second round pick. And he might be. But in this crap draft he might well get pushed up. 

 

I'm interested in what other moves people think the Bills might make in the event the board falls as this did and they can't trade back. Not moves people want them to make. But based on what we know and where we are at, alternative moves that people think they might actually make here. Because Hyatt isn't a choice I love but he made the most sense to me based on what we know about this regime both in terms of what they have done this spring and their history. 

 

Think this IS a realistic alternative. 

If the rumors that Beane is looking to trade up have any merit, I think it would be for an offensive playmaker. I think it should be Kincaid, but I surmise he might go up for Addison or even Johnston if they want to gamble on a boom or bust pick. If they stay where they are and everything plays out as speculated, I would rather take Mayer but I concur with the probability that they take Mazi Smith. (Not my favorite, but if they are going D, he's not a bad choice.)

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Rashee Rice over Darnell Wright or Zay Flowers?

 

Huh.

 

That was version 1. About 3 months ago. I still don't like Wright or Flowers much mind you haha. But they are both gone here. 

Edited April 16, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Beck Water]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

That was version 1. About 3 months ago. I still don't like Wright or Flowers much mind you haha. 

 

Oh, OK, sorry.  Maybe link your new mock draft in the OP post?

[DJB]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is a one trick pony, 100%. The thing is it is a valuable trick and the thing he does better than most 9 route guys is track the ball. DeSean Jackson is kinda the high end comparison. He was a 2nd round pick, Hyatt should be a second round pick. And he might be. But in this crap draft he might well get pushed up. 

 

I'm interested in what other moves people think the Bills might make in the event the board falls as this did and they can't trade back. Not moves people want them to make. But based on what we know and where we are at, alternative moves that people think they might actually make here. Because Hyatt isn't a choice I love but he made the most sense to me based on what we know about this regime both in terms of what they have done this spring and their history. 

 

Think this IS a realistic alternative. 

He’s not a guy in the first round I want to see. At our 2nd round pick? Fine