UPDATED - v3.0 (FINAL) on p.13 - Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft

[newcam2012]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0..... post free-agency some pieces have moved. I normally try and throw a trade or two in this one but struggled to find trades I liked enough to make happen. Anyway... flame away!!!

 

1.      Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

I don’t buy that the Panthers moved up to #1 before they had made a decision on a Quarterback. You don’t make that trade thinking you “might” like one of two guys, you make that move up when you have identified a Quarterback who can be the face of the franchise. I believe Bryce Young is the best in the class, and I suspect that is where Carolina has landed.

 

2.      Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

If Young is off the board I don’t think it is an absolute lock that the Texans go Quarterback. If someone wanted to trade up and give them a boatload of picks I think they’d listen, but ultimately I suspect they end up deciding that this is the last of their years drafting in the top 5 and so need to take a shot on Stroud as the man to execute their new Shanahan style offense.

 

3.      Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

This is also a prime trade up spot if a team wants to jump Indianapolis for a Quarterback, but from the rumours I’m hearing the Cardinals want one of Anderson or Tyree Wilson and are not willing to move back so far that both are out of reach. Anderson is the safer of the two and I expect him to be the first non-QB off the board if Arizona stays at #3.

 

4.      Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

In version 1.0 I had Will Levis at this spot but that was before the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their head coach. Having seen the success he had in Philadelphia coordinating a multiple offense with a dual threat Quarterback they might feel comfortable swinging for the fences on the raw potential of Anthony Richardson.

 

5.      Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

I have never bought the “Carter sliding out of the top 10” buzz. I get the character concerns but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of his talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior.

 

6.      Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Corner, Illinois

The trading away of Jeff Okudah makes it even more likely that the Lions are targeting the best corner in the class at #6. From what I read who that is depends on which team you ask with Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all being ranked #1 on some boards. But the rumour mill is attaching Witherspoon to the Lions most frequently so he is the pick.

 

7.      Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

In the event that the Raiders don’t go Quarterback they are in prime position to address needs on the offensive line or at corner. Knowing that they are hitching their wagon to the injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback I expect protection is the order of the day at #7, especially as the cornerback depth in round 2 is stronger than the offensive line depth. Skoronski could start immediately at right tackle or inside at guard.

 

8.      Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

The Falcons pass rush has been a disaster for a while now. I thought they should have addressed it in the top 10 last year when they reached for Drake London, they can’t ignore it again. Wilson is a freak and he reminds me of Marcus Davenport who the Saints traded way up to acquire when new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was their defensive line coach.

 

9.      Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

The Bears could happily trade back from #1 to #9 because they have needs basically everywhere. Johnson is the best tackle in this class and plugging him in at left tackle in front of former Buckeyes teammate Justin Fields as the Quarterback heads into a critical year 3 is a major upgrade on the blindside.

 

10.   Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. Van Ness is more potential than production at this stage but he feels like a fit both in terms of physical profile and character.

 

11.   Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The Titans are either going offensive line or wide receiver at this spot. I know they signed Andre Dillard as a free agent but he has been a career backup despite being a former first round pick of the Eagles and he can play inside at guard too. If the chance to land one of the premier tackles presents itself that is the direction I think they should go.

 

12.   Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The current consensus is moving towards Smith-Njigba being the first receiver drafted and that is understandable. In a draft class with very few sure things he has a high floor and at the very least should be a productive player from the slot. I’m sure the Texans would love to use him as a move receiver lining up all over the formation in their new offense.

 

13.   New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson  

The Jets edge position has already seen a ton of resources during the Robert Salah era but whether it has been injuries, disappointing production, or clunky scheme fits they still haven’t nailed it. When Saleh was in San Francisco they continued to pour resources into the defensive line until they got it right and with the offensive line guys off the board that is what I could see the Jets doing.

 

14.   New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

Part of me thinks Bill Belichick is just trolling us all but I am going to take the bait with regards to the Patriots love affair with Flowers. Allegedly they spent his top 30 visit teaching him the entire offense, he does have quick twitch acceleration which is a need, and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east. A lot of the pieces fit.

 

15.   Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

Someone who is quite plugged into Green Bay told me recently that if Skoronski is still on the board he is the Packers’ guy. The bad news for them is I don’t think he will be. I do think Tight End is in play here but Dalton Kincaid isn’t a complete tight end, doesn’t block and as such doesn’t really fit their offense. When in doubt with the Packers pick a defensive back and they do have a hole at safety that Branch could fill.

 

16.   Washington Commanders – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Maybe the Commanders really will go into a season with Sam Howell as their starter, but new ownership usually brings pressure to find a Quarterback and if Levis has slid this far I can imagine Washington feeling as though they have to take him.

 

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Personally I have Gonzalez as the best corner in the class and he would be incredible value here for the Steelers. I think their priority is left tackle, but there isn’t one left at this spot and as such I think they would prioritise the premium positional need at corner over a right tackle only like Darnell Wright. Gonzalez starts opposite Patrick Peterson day 1.

 

18.   Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

This is the first spot that really makes sense for me for Bijan unless the Eagles take him at #10. A running back, even one as good as him, is a first round luxury but for a team with two first round picks it could be justified especially as the Lions lost their power back Jamaal Williams to the Saints in free agency.

 

19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

The Buccs cut their left tackle Donovan Smith earlier in the offseason and their preference seems to be to move all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the blindside. That would leave a gap at right tackle and Wright could slide straight in and start in front of Baker Mayfield.

 

20.   Seattle Seahawks – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida

Seattle hit a home run at offensive tackle last year with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Adding Torrence at guard would give them one of the better lines in the NFL and he is a scheme fit for the way they want to run the ball up the middle with Kenneth Walker.

 

21.   Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU

Keenan Allen has been a stalwart for the Chargers but he turns 31 on day one of the draft and missed time hurt in 2022. Mike Williams is an almost certain cap casualty (or major re-negotiation) after the season as his 2024 cap number is $32m. This team needs to look to the future at receiver. Tom Telesco has a type at the position – he values size – so Johnston is the obvious fit.

 

22.   Baltimore Ravens – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

With OBJ in the building and Lamar increasingly looking like he could still be on the roster come draft day I think an edge rusher becomes the priority for the Ravens. 2021 first rounder Odafe Oweh flashed as a rookie in a situational role but recorded just 3 sacks last season despite 6 starts. Smith is a bit of a project technique wise but he is an impressive physical specimen.

 

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

This is sprint to the podium time for the Vikings who probably couldn’t imagine one of the top three corners sliding this far. Patrick Peterson left in free agency, Cam Dantzler was cut and their gamble on Andrew Booth in the second round last year despite questionable medicals didn’t immediately work out as he managed just 6 games and ended up on IR. Porter starts day 1.

 

24.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

The Jaguars are another team glad to see the corners fall down the board a little. 2nd year player Tyson Campbell had a breakout season in 2022 but the corner spot opposite him was a weakness all year. If the offense keeps scoring then teams will be passing a lot on Jacksonville. Having two capable corners is a must.

 

25.   New York Giants – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

The Giants are bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley, but receiver remains a need. Addison’s best fit is in a creative offense that is going to move him around the formation and exploit mismatches. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are the perfect duo to exploit his skillset.

 

26.   Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

If Kincaid gets to #26 he will get no further. Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency and while Jake Ferguson had his moments as a rookie he is an athletically limited day 3 draft pick going into year 2. Kincaid, in contrast, is a genuine weapon in the passing game for a team committed to putting more around CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott.

 

27.   Buffalo Bills – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up? If they don’t I’d lean towards receiver as the pick even though Hyatt is  arguably a bit of a reach. The Bills have had a lot of receivers, including Hyatt, in for top 30 visits and that is usually a strong indicator of where this regime are at in terms of positional priority.

 

28.   Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame

I think defensive back is definitely in play for the Bengals here, they lost both starting safeties in free agency and didn’t bring Eli Apple back at corner. But they did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last year and the depth of the class at corner might lead them to think they can wait on that spot. They also lost Hayden Hurst in free agency so a tight end that blocks and can be a safety valve in the passing game for Joe Burrow might be too good to pass on.

 

29.   New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, Defensive Tackle, Michigan

The Saints were not the strongest at defensive tackle in 2022, and that is before they lost both starters in free agency to teams within their division. Mazi Smith is already proven as a space eater but he still feels like he has untapped potential as a penetrator given his physical profile. He’d be an immediate starter.

 

30.   Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one.

 

31.   Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Frank Clark hadn’t lived up to his contract the past two seasons, but he contributed for Chiefs in the playoffs and his departure means they are thin at edge. They drafted Karlaftis last year and he had six sacks as a rookie but they need a more dynamic fast twitch threat and Anudike-Uzomah from just up the road at Kansas State has explosive burst and bend to hunt down Quarterbacks.

I can live with the Hyatt pick. Not overly excited about it either. Not sure how polished he is? Seems like a one trick pony deep threat. He doesn't feel like a 1st round pick to me. 

[LEBills]

I would be a bit disappointed if that is how it shook out. Hyatt certainly has an elite trait but definitely have my doubts he can be more than an MVS or DJ Chark.

 

One thing that is interesting to the top 30 visits is local teams do not count against the top 30 visits. I believe for the Bills that includes UB, Penn State and, of course, Syracuse. It was reported that Kromer was working out Matthew Bergeron during SUs pro day. I think Bergeron is going first round and is a top 3 OT for me. In the event of that draft I would go with him.

[NeverOutNick]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Plausible rationale offered throughout. I don't think any of the explanations come across as strained. If the draft plays out this way, I would be pretty unhappy if the Bills didn't find a way to trade up for either Addison or Kincaid, the latter being my preference as I think he has the potential to be a dangerous weapon. Hyatt is really a second rounder which is often the case late first round. Do better Beane.  

I like Kincaid a lot too but I don’t want to trade up in this draft unless for a premier OT. Too many good TEs later and honestly the top 10 WRs in this class are all between 2-3rd rounders normally but will be pushed up because of team needs

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I would be a bit disappointed if that is how it shook out. Hyatt certainly has an elite trait but definitely have my doubts he can be more than an MVS or DJ Chark.

 

One thing that is interesting to the top 30 visits is local teams do not count against the top 30 visits. I believe for the Bills that includes UB, Penn State and, of course, Syracuse. It was reported that Kromer was working out Matthew Bergeron during SUs pro day. I think Bergeron is going first round and is a top 3 OT for me. In the event of that draft I would go with him.

 

I don't think Bergeron is going first round. I like him, I think he is going to be a very solid pro. But I don't think he goes round 1. 

 

And I have said elsewhere I am pretty sure the Bills in particular are not going OL round 1. I would be absolutely up for them doing so. But I don't think they will. 

 

I do see the Chark comparison on Hyatt. I think that may very well be his kind of ceiling. But if he can stay healthier than Chark that is still a bona fide NFL #2 production wise. He has had a 1,000 yard season after all. I think Hyatt can be a low volume, high production type #2 receiver. That wouldn't normally be a pick I'd love in round 1. I don't love it here either, but in this class I could probably live with it.

[ganesh]

On 2/6/2023 at 12:55 AM, entropyrules said:

If there is a big drop off as one gets into the 20s of the first round I hope the Bills trade back so they can load up on O lienman in the 2nd and 3rd..geeting a receiver is a nice add but if they don't fix that O line I think we'll see a repeat of 2022

The Bills have signed Veteran FA for the IOL position. I doubt they draft for IOL in the 1st three rounds as they have big needs at WR, DR, LB ahead of IOL

[TheBeaneBandit]

The thing with Hyatt is we don't know if he can run the full tree. If he is the pick, I would hope the Bills had a private workout with him to investigate this further.

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Plausible rationale offered throughout. I don't think any of the explanations come across as strained. If the draft plays out this way, I would be pretty unhappy if the Bills didn't find a way to trade up for either Addison or Kincaid, the latter being my preference as I think he has the potential to be a dangerous weapon. Hyatt is really a second rounder which is often the case late first round. Do better Beane.  

 

I probably have Kincaid going too late. I think he will go before #26 I just think that is his floor. Tight Ends are always difficult to slot in mocks because of both positional value and the different ways teams use them (especially right now with the Shanahan scheme so popular it makes non-blocking tight ends tricky).

 

I absolutely think Green Bay could take a tight end... but if they do Mayer is the fit much more than Kincaid for their scheme. Detroit could take one but then why trade Hock away? Not like they were paying a ton of guys. The Chargers could but they have a bigger need at receiver. Then you get to a run of teams who have established good starting end tight ends - Baltimore, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Giants - and it becomes hard to find his spot. You really need a team who says "screw need, screw positional value, I love Dalton Kincaid and I gotta have him."

Edited April 16, 2023 by GunnerBill

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

Great mock! 
 

However the Bills are in such a bad spot for this draft. Too late as all the best WR and OT are all likely gone. It’s way too early to go LB as well. I doubt Robinson is there as well
 

I’ll be very disappointed with Hyatt if that’s the way we go round 1. 

I don’t see the Bills taking this type of receiver at that pick. What he excels at can be found later in the draft. He has decent height and is thin, weighed in under 180 and is 6’0 tall. 

[NeverOutNick]

2 minutes ago, ganesh said:

The Bills have signed Veteran FA for the IOL position. I doubt they draft for IOL in the 1st three rounds as they have big needs at WR, DR, LB ahead of IOL

With the contracts given out this offseason, the only O lineman that will 100% make the team is McGovern and the O line is in dire need. They will 100% look at O line both inside and outside in the early rounds of the draft and if they don’t then they’re not watching the games the same way we are with Josh having to play hero ball running for his life. I believe (moreso hope) Beane understands this and is going to invest heavily in the offense this draft 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I can live with the Hyatt pick. Not overly excited about it either. Not sure how polished he is? Seems like a one trick pony deep threat. He doesn't feel like a 1st round pick to me. 

 

That is pretty much how I feel about him.

Just now, NeverOutNick said:

With the contracts given out this offseason, the only O lineman that will 100% make the team is McGovern and the O line is in dire need. They will 100% look at O line both inside and outside in the early rounds of the draft and if they don’t then they’re not watching the games the same way we are with Josh having to play hero ball running for his life. I believe (moreso hope) Beane understands this and is going to invest heavily in the offense this draft 

 

I don't expect an OL within our first two picks. Sadly I think you are right and I don't think they see it the same way we do. 

[NeverOutNick]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is pretty much how I feel about him.

Just hope the bills feel the same way. Beanes wheelhouse is the trade so I think he can move back if the board fell like this 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0..... post free-agency some pieces have moved. I normally try and throw a trade or two in this one but struggled to find trades I liked enough to make happen. Anyway... flame away!!!

 

1.      Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

I don’t buy that the Panthers moved up to #1 before they had made a decision on a Quarterback. You don’t make that trade thinking you “might” like one of two guys, you make that move up when you have identified a Quarterback who can be the face of the franchise. I believe Bryce Young is the best in the class, and I suspect that is where Carolina has landed.

 

2.      Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

If Young is off the board I don’t think it is an absolute lock that the Texans go Quarterback. If someone wanted to trade up and give them a boatload of picks I think they’d listen, but ultimately I suspect they end up deciding that this is the last of their years drafting in the top 5 and so need to take a shot on Stroud as the man to execute their new Shanahan style offense.

 

3.      Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

This is also a prime trade up spot if a team wants to jump Indianapolis for a Quarterback, but from the rumours I’m hearing the Cardinals want one of Anderson or Tyree Wilson and are not willing to move back so far that both are out of reach. Anderson is the safer of the two and I expect him to be the first non-QB off the board if Arizona stays at #3.

 

4.      Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

In version 1.0 I had Will Levis at this spot but that was before the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their head coach. Having seen the success he had in Philadelphia coordinating a multiple offense with a dual threat Quarterback they might feel comfortable swinging for the fences on the raw potential of Anthony Richardson.

 

5.      Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

I have never bought the “Carter sliding out of the top 10” buzz. I get the character concerns but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of his talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior.

 

6.      Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Corner, Illinois

The trading away of Jeff Okudah makes it even more likely that the Lions are targeting the best corner in the class at #6. From what I read who that is depends on which team you ask with Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all being ranked #1 on some boards. But the rumour mill is attaching Witherspoon to the Lions most frequently so he is the pick.

 

7.      Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

In the event that the Raiders don’t go Quarterback they are in prime position to address needs on the offensive line or at corner. Knowing that they are hitching their wagon to the injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback I expect protection is the order of the day at #7, especially as the cornerback depth in round 2 is stronger than the offensive line depth. Skoronski could start immediately at right tackle or inside at guard.

 

8.      Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

The Falcons pass rush has been a disaster for a while now. I thought they should have addressed it in the top 10 last year when they reached for Drake London, they can’t ignore it again. Wilson is a freak and he reminds me of Marcus Davenport who the Saints traded way up to acquire when new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was their defensive line coach.

 

9.      Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

The Bears could happily trade back from #1 to #9 because they have needs basically everywhere. Johnson is the best tackle in this class and plugging him in at left tackle in front of former Buckeyes teammate Justin Fields as the Quarterback heads into a critical year 3 is a major upgrade on the blindside.

 

10.   Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. Van Ness is more potential than production at this stage but he feels like a fit both in terms of physical profile and character.

 

11.   Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The Titans are either going offensive line or wide receiver at this spot. I know they signed Andre Dillard as a free agent but he has been a career backup despite being a former first round pick of the Eagles and he can play inside at guard too. If the chance to land one of the premier tackles presents itself that is the direction I think they should go.

 

12.   Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The current consensus is moving towards Smith-Njigba being the first receiver drafted and that is understandable. In a draft class with very few sure things he has a high floor and at the very least should be a productive player from the slot. I’m sure the Texans would love to use him as a move receiver lining up all over the formation in their new offense.

 

13.   New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson  

The Jets edge position has already seen a ton of resources during the Robert Salah era but whether it has been injuries, disappointing production, or clunky scheme fits they still haven’t nailed it. When Saleh was in San Francisco they continued to pour resources into the defensive line until they got it right and with the offensive line guys off the board that is what I could see the Jets doing.

 

14.   New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

Part of me thinks Bill Belichick is just trolling us all but I am going to take the bait with regards to the Patriots love affair with Flowers. Allegedly they spent his top 30 visit teaching him the entire offense, he does have quick twitch acceleration which is a need, and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east. A lot of the pieces fit.

 

15.   Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

Someone who is quite plugged into Green Bay told me recently that if Skoronski is still on the board he is the Packers’ guy. The bad news for them is I don’t think he will be. I do think Tight End is in play here but Dalton Kincaid isn’t a complete tight end, doesn’t block and as such doesn’t really fit their offense. When in doubt with the Packers pick a defensive back and they do have a hole at safety that Branch could fill.

 

16.   Washington Commanders – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Maybe the Commanders really will go into a season with Sam Howell as their starter, but new ownership usually brings pressure to find a Quarterback and if Levis has slid this far I can imagine Washington feeling as though they have to take him.

 

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Personally I have Gonzalez as the best corner in the class and he would be incredible value here for the Steelers. I think their priority is left tackle, but there isn’t one left at this spot and as such I think they would prioritise the premium positional need at corner over a right tackle only like Darnell Wright. Gonzalez starts opposite Patrick Peterson day 1.

 

18.   Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

This is the first spot that really makes sense for me for Bijan unless the Eagles take him at #10. A running back, even one as good as him, is a first round luxury but for a team with two first round picks it could be justified especially as the Lions lost their power back Jamaal Williams to the Saints in free agency.

 

19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

The Buccs cut their left tackle Donovan Smith earlier in the offseason and their preference seems to be to move all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the blindside. That would leave a gap at right tackle and Wright could slide straight in and start in front of Baker Mayfield.

 

20.   Seattle Seahawks – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida

Seattle hit a home run at offensive tackle last year with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Adding Torrence at guard would give them one of the better lines in the NFL and he is a scheme fit for the way they want to run the ball up the middle with Kenneth Walker.

 

21.   Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU

Keenan Allen has been a stalwart for the Chargers but he turns 31 on day one of the draft and missed time hurt in 2022. Mike Williams is an almost certain cap casualty (or major re-negotiation) after the season as his 2024 cap number is $32m. This team needs to look to the future at receiver. Tom Telesco has a type at the position – he values size – so Johnston is the obvious fit.

 

22.   Baltimore Ravens – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

With OBJ in the building and Lamar increasingly looking like he could still be on the roster come draft day I think an edge rusher becomes the priority for the Ravens. 2021 first rounder Odafe Oweh flashed as a rookie in a situational role but recorded just 3 sacks last season despite 6 starts. Smith is a bit of a project technique wise but he is an impressive physical specimen.

 

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

This is sprint to the podium time for the Vikings who probably couldn’t imagine one of the top three corners sliding this far. Patrick Peterson left in free agency, Cam Dantzler was cut and their gamble on Andrew Booth in the second round last year despite questionable medicals didn’t immediately work out as he managed just 6 games and ended up on IR. Porter starts day 1.

 

24.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

The Jaguars are another team glad to see the corners fall down the board a little. 2nd year player Tyson Campbell had a breakout season in 2022 but the corner spot opposite him was a weakness all year. If the offense keeps scoring then teams will be passing a lot on Jacksonville. Having two capable corners is a must.

 

25.   New York Giants – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

The Giants are bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley, but receiver remains a need. Addison’s best fit is in a creative offense that is going to move him around the formation and exploit mismatches. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are the perfect duo to exploit his skillset.

 

26.   Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

If Kincaid gets to #26 he will get no further. Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency and while Jake Ferguson had his moments as a rookie he is an athletically limited day 3 draft pick going into year 2. Kincaid, in contrast, is a genuine weapon in the passing game for a team committed to putting more around CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott.

 

27.   Buffalo Bills – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up? If they don’t I’d lean towards receiver as the pick even though Hyatt is  arguably a bit of a reach. The Bills have had a lot of receivers, including Hyatt, in for top 30 visits and that is usually a strong indicator of where this regime are at in terms of positional priority.

 

28.   Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame

I think defensive back is definitely in play for the Bengals here, they lost both starting safeties in free agency and didn’t bring Eli Apple back at corner. But they did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last year and the depth of the class at corner might lead them to think they can wait on that spot. They also lost Hayden Hurst in free agency so a tight end that blocks and can be a safety valve in the passing game for Joe Burrow might be too good to pass on.

 

29.   New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, Defensive Tackle, Michigan

The Saints were not the strongest at defensive tackle in 2022, and that is before they lost both starters in free agency to teams within their division. Mazi Smith is already proven as a space eater but he still feels like he has untapped potential as a penetrator given his physical profile. He’d be an immediate starter.

 

30.   Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one.

 

31.   Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Frank Clark hadn’t lived up to his contract the past two seasons, but he contributed for Chiefs in the playoffs and his departure means they are thin at edge. They drafted Karlaftis last year and he had six sacks as a rookie but they need a more dynamic fast twitch threat and Anudike-Uzomah from just up the road at Kansas State has explosive burst and bend to hunt down Quarterbacks.

Bill, if Bijan Robinson is there at 18, I see the Bills trading Ed Oliver and 27 to Detroit for 18 and Detroit's 55. With the salary dump of Oliver, the Dhop trade resumes. I just don't see the Lions drafting Bijan with David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift on roster. Harris is on a 1 year deal with the Bills which will allow Bijan to learn the NFL game and become the future franchise RB. Oliver will help the Lions defensive front. I feel that the Bills are going "all in" this year and will get Josh the weapons he needs offensively with Dhop/Bijan.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0..... post free-agency some pieces have moved. I normally try and throw a trade or two in this one but struggled to find trades I liked enough to make happen. Anyway... flame away!!!

 

1.      Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

I don’t buy that the Panthers moved up to #1 before they had made a decision on a Quarterback. You don’t make that trade thinking you “might” like one of two guys, you make that move up when you have identified a Quarterback who can be the face of the franchise. I believe Bryce Young is the best in the class, and I suspect that is where Carolina has landed.

 

2.      Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

If Young is off the board I don’t think it is an absolute lock that the Texans go Quarterback. If someone wanted to trade up and give them a boatload of picks I think they’d listen, but ultimately I suspect they end up deciding that this is the last of their years drafting in the top 5 and so need to take a shot on Stroud as the man to execute their new Shanahan style offense.

 

3.      Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

This is also a prime trade up spot if a team wants to jump Indianapolis for a Quarterback, but from the rumours I’m hearing the Cardinals want one of Anderson or Tyree Wilson and are not willing to move back so far that both are out of reach. Anderson is the safer of the two and I expect him to be the first non-QB off the board if Arizona stays at #3.

 

4.      Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

In version 1.0 I had Will Levis at this spot but that was before the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their head coach. Having seen the success he had in Philadelphia coordinating a multiple offense with a dual threat Quarterback they might feel comfortable swinging for the fences on the raw potential of Anthony Richardson.

 

5.      Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

I have never bought the “Carter sliding out of the top 10” buzz. I get the character concerns but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of his talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior.

 

6.      Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Corner, Illinois

The trading away of Jeff Okudah makes it even more likely that the Lions are targeting the best corner in the class at #6. From what I read who that is depends on which team you ask with Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all being ranked #1 on some boards. But the rumour mill is attaching Witherspoon to the Lions most frequently so he is the pick.

 

7.      Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

In the event that the Raiders don’t go Quarterback they are in prime position to address needs on the offensive line or at corner. Knowing that they are hitching their wagon to the injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback I expect protection is the order of the day at #7, especially as the cornerback depth in round 2 is stronger than the offensive line depth. Skoronski could start immediately at right tackle or inside at guard.

 

8.      Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

The Falcons pass rush has been a disaster for a while now. I thought they should have addressed it in the top 10 last year when they reached for Drake London, they can’t ignore it again. Wilson is a freak and he reminds me of Marcus Davenport who the Saints traded way up to acquire when new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was their defensive line coach.

 

9.      Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

The Bears could happily trade back from #1 to #9 because they have needs basically everywhere. Johnson is the best tackle in this class and plugging him in at left tackle in front of former Buckeyes teammate Justin Fields as the Quarterback heads into a critical year 3 is a major upgrade on the blindside.

 

10.   Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. Van Ness is more potential than production at this stage but he feels like a fit both in terms of physical profile and character.

 

11.   Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The Titans are either going offensive line or wide receiver at this spot. I know they signed Andre Dillard as a free agent but he has been a career backup despite being a former first round pick of the Eagles and he can play inside at guard too. If the chance to land one of the premier tackles presents itself that is the direction I think they should go.

 

12.   Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The current consensus is moving towards Smith-Njigba being the first receiver drafted and that is understandable. In a draft class with very few sure things he has a high floor and at the very least should be a productive player from the slot. I’m sure the Texans would love to use him as a move receiver lining up all over the formation in their new offense.

 

13.   New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson  

The Jets edge position has already seen a ton of resources during the Robert Salah era but whether it has been injuries, disappointing production, or clunky scheme fits they still haven’t nailed it. When Saleh was in San Francisco they continued to pour resources into the defensive line until they got it right and with the offensive line guys off the board that is what I could see the Jets doing.

 

14.   New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

Part of me thinks Bill Belichick is just trolling us all but I am going to take the bait with regards to the Patriots love affair with Flowers. Allegedly they spent his top 30 visit teaching him the entire offense, he does have quick twitch acceleration which is a need, and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east. A lot of the pieces fit.

 

15.   Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

Someone who is quite plugged into Green Bay told me recently that if Skoronski is still on the board he is the Packers’ guy. The bad news for them is I don’t think he will be. I do think Tight End is in play here but Dalton Kincaid isn’t a complete tight end, doesn’t block and as such doesn’t really fit their offense. When in doubt with the Packers pick a defensive back and they do have a hole at safety that Branch could fill.

 

16.   Washington Commanders – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Maybe the Commanders really will go into a season with Sam Howell as their starter, but new ownership usually brings pressure to find a Quarterback and if Levis has slid this far I can imagine Washington feeling as though they have to take him.

 

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Personally I have Gonzalez as the best corner in the class and he would be incredible value here for the Steelers. I think their priority is left tackle, but there isn’t one left at this spot and as such I think they would prioritise the premium positional need at corner over a right tackle only like Darnell Wright. Gonzalez starts opposite Patrick Peterson day 1.

 

18.   Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

This is the first spot that really makes sense for me for Bijan unless the Eagles take him at #10. A running back, even one as good as him, is a first round luxury but for a team with two first round picks it could be justified especially as the Lions lost their power back Jamaal Williams to the Saints in free agency.

 

19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

The Buccs cut their left tackle Donovan Smith earlier in the offseason and their preference seems to be to move all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the blindside. That would leave a gap at right tackle and Wright could slide straight in and start in front of Baker Mayfield.

 

20.   Seattle Seahawks – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida

Seattle hit a home run at offensive tackle last year with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Adding Torrence at guard would give them one of the better lines in the NFL and he is a scheme fit for the way they want to run the ball up the middle with Kenneth Walker.

 

21.   Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU

Keenan Allen has been a stalwart for the Chargers but he turns 31 on day one of the draft and missed time hurt in 2022. Mike Williams is an almost certain cap casualty (or major re-negotiation) after the season as his 2024 cap number is $32m. This team needs to look to the future at receiver. Tom Telesco has a type at the position – he values size – so Johnston is the obvious fit.

 

22.   Baltimore Ravens – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

With OBJ in the building and Lamar increasingly looking like he could still be on the roster come draft day I think an edge rusher becomes the priority for the Ravens. 2021 first rounder Odafe Oweh flashed as a rookie in a situational role but recorded just 3 sacks last season despite 6 starts. Smith is a bit of a project technique wise but he is an impressive physical specimen.

 

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

This is sprint to the podium time for the Vikings who probably couldn’t imagine one of the top three corners sliding this far. Patrick Peterson left in free agency, Cam Dantzler was cut and their gamble on Andrew Booth in the second round last year despite questionable medicals didn’t immediately work out as he managed just 6 games and ended up on IR. Porter starts day 1.

 

24.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

The Jaguars are another team glad to see the corners fall down the board a little. 2nd year player Tyson Campbell had a breakout season in 2022 but the corner spot opposite him was a weakness all year. If the offense keeps scoring then teams will be passing a lot on Jacksonville. Having two capable corners is a must.

 

25.   New York Giants – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

The Giants are bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley, but receiver remains a need. Addison’s best fit is in a creative offense that is going to move him around the formation and exploit mismatches. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are the perfect duo to exploit his skillset.

 

26.   Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

If Kincaid gets to #26 he will get no further. Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency and while Jake Ferguson had his moments as a rookie he is an athletically limited day 3 draft pick going into year 2. Kincaid, in contrast, is a genuine weapon in the passing game for a team committed to putting more around CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott.

 

27.   Buffalo Bills – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up? If they don’t I’d lean towards receiver as the pick even though Hyatt is  arguably a bit of a reach. The Bills have had a lot of receivers, including Hyatt, in for top 30 visits and that is usually a strong indicator of where this regime are at in terms of positional priority.

 

28.   Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame

I think defensive back is definitely in play for the Bengals here, they lost both starting safeties in free agency and didn’t bring Eli Apple back at corner. But they did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last year and the depth of the class at corner might lead them to think they can wait on that spot. They also lost Hayden Hurst in free agency so a tight end that blocks and can be a safety valve in the passing game for Joe Burrow might be too good to pass on.

 

29.   New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, Defensive Tackle, Michigan

The Saints were not the strongest at defensive tackle in 2022, and that is before they lost both starters in free agency to teams within their division. Mazi Smith is already proven as a space eater but he still feels like he has untapped potential as a penetrator given his physical profile. He’d be an immediate starter.

 

30.   Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one.

 

31.   Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Frank Clark hadn’t lived up to his contract the past two seasons, but he contributed for Chiefs in the playoffs and his departure means they are thin at edge. They drafted Karlaftis last year and he had six sacks as a rookie but they need a more dynamic fast twitch threat and Anudike-Uzomah from just up the road at Kansas State has explosive burst and bend to hunt down Quarterbacks.

 

Great work as usual, but i’d rather have even Darnell Washington over Hyatt. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Bill, if Bijan Robinson is there at 18, I see the Bills trading Ed Oliver and 27 to Detroit for 18 and Detroit's 55. With the salary dump of Oliver, the Dhop trade resumes. I just don't see the Lions drafting Bijan with David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift on roster. Harris is on a 1 year deal with the Bills which will allow Bijan to learn the NFL game and become the future franchise RB. Oliver will help the Lions defensive front. I feel that the Bills are going "all in" this year and will get Josh the weapons he needs offensively with Dhop/Bijan.

 

1. I don't see Beane trading up for a running back.

 

2. I don't think they have had Bijan in as far as we know (the Bills meet their 1st rounders).

 

3. The Lions are fed up of Swift. He isn't stopping them drafting anyone. He wasn't even their starter by the end of last season. 

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Great work as usual, but i’d rather have even Darnell Washington over Hyatt. 

 

Washington isn't a good enough receiver to go round 1. I am all for having tight ends who can do both but to go round 1 a tight end really has to be a receiving threat. Washington is okay in tight spaces in the redzone but he would be the #2 tight end here. That is bad value in round 1.

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Washington isn't a good enough receiver to go round 1. I am all for having tight ends who can do both but to go round 1 a tight end really has to be a receiving threat. Washington is okay in tight spaces in the redzone but he would be the #2 tight end here. That is bad value in round 1.

 

That’s the thing - I don’t see any round 1 talents past pick 23 or so. We are getting bad value either way. No way Hyatt is even a #1 pick in many draft years. In fact, I think there is a good chance he slips to the top of the 2nd round.

 

I think Washington goes in that 25 to 42 range. Not very often is there a gargantuan 6’7 tight end that some think could even be an offensive lineman, but also has incredible catching skills (even if underutilized in college). I think he could eventually be much better than Knox, and may take the league by storm.

edit: Matt Miller says there are only 19 first round talents in this draft. So maybe I was being optimistic by saying 23. 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s the thing - I don’t see any round 1 talents past pick 23 or so. We are getting bad value either way. No way Hyatt is even a #1 pick in many draft years. In fact, I think there is a good chance he slips to the top of the 2nd round.

 

I think Washington goes in that 25 to 42 range. Not very often is there a gargantuan 6’7 tight end that some think could even be an offensive lineman, but also has incredible catching skills (even if underutilized in college). I think he could eventually be much better than Knox, and may take the league by storm.

 

He has good hands. But he doesn't separate. That is why he is of limited use in the passing game. I don't think he will end up better than Knox. I don't think he will go 1st round. He will go somewhere in the 2nd I think. 

 

I do agree in most year Hyatt wouldn't go round 1 and he might not go round 1 this year either.... I'm just trying to piece together what I think the Bills would do faced with that board. And what they usually do is prioritise the positions they most heavily invest in during the pre-draft process and pick one of those players. Hyatt is a similar level of prospect to where I had Kaiir Elam last year. A highish 2nd round grade that could go back end of round 1 or could go first half of round 2. 

[LEBills]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think Bergeron is going first round. I like him, I think he is going to be a very solid pro. But I don't think he goes round 1. 

 

And I have said elsewhere I am pretty sure the Bills in particular are not going OL round 1. I would be absolutely up for them doing so. But I don't think they will. 

 

I do see the Chark comparison on Hyatt. I think that may very well be his kind of ceiling. But if he can stay healthier than Chark that is still a bona fide NFL #2 production wise. He has had a 1,000 yard season after all. I think Hyatt can be a low volume, high production type #2 receiver. That wouldn't normally be a pick I'd love in round 1. I don't love it here either, but in this class I could probably live with it.

I think we are going to be surprised about Bergeron and how early he goes. To me he has the quickest feet among the top OTs. Johnson, Jones, Bergeron and Wright I think will go rd 1. Skoronski too depending on if he is a guard or tackle on the next level. I’m hoping that Beane’s comments about protecting their franchise QB after the season extends beyond a couple veteran guards but you may be right.

For Hyatt, the problem is he basically only had free releases in college and so unless you are going to only put him in the slot you have to hope he can learn to be an outside player like Chark or MVS who he is much thinner than. So I think you are hoping he can develop into that which is a little rich for Rd 1. Matt Harmon does his reception perception for the draft class each year and Hyatt basically only was good at 9s and below average at everything else. A little too much risk for rd 1 for me. Rd 2 I could live with or wait for Tyler Scott or Trey Palmer.

 

But love the thought exercise of your draft, thank you
 

 

 

 

[NewEra]

That all make sense- great insight

 

that said-  I think we move up. I expect the run on offensive playmakers from the teens to 26-  leaving us with a WR that doesn’t run any routes. I don’t have any confidence in Dorsey making Hyatt work.  I just woke up- so I’m a little cloudy, but I think I’d rather go Mazi Smith rd 1 tbh-  and I detest the thought of Mazi Smith at 27.

 

Just a hunch- the Steelers draft Nolan Smith-  he seems like a steeler fit to me. Ravens too…. But they pick after Pittsburgh. Highsmith is a nice compliment to Watt, but his rookie contract is up after the season and he won’t be cheap. 
 

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1. I don't see Beane trading up for a running back.

 

2. I don't think they have had Bijan in as far as we know (the Bills meet their 1st rounders).

 

3. The Lions are fed up of Swift. He isn't stopping them drafting anyone. He wasn't even their starter by the end of last season.

Bijan isn't just a RB. He's compared to Saquon Barkley who's an offensive weapon. 

 

We know that they met with him at the combine, but don't know if there were any other meetings. Remember they met with Rousseau virtually, although it was during COVID epidemic. 

 

Who said that Detroit was done with Swift? He seemed to be a part of their playoff drive last season. They also allowed Williams to leave, not Swift. 

51 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think Bergeron is going first round. I like him, I think he is going to be a very solid pro. But I don't think he goes round 1. 

I totally agree with this

[NewEra]

32 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Bill, if Bijan Robinson is there at 18, I see the Bills trading Ed Oliver and 27 to Detroit for 18 and Detroit's 55. With the salary dump of Oliver, the Dhop trade resumes. I just don't see the Lions drafting Bijan with David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift on roster. Harris is on a 1 year deal with the Bills which will allow Bijan to learn the NFL game and become the future franchise RB. Oliver will help the Lions defensive front. I feel that the Bills are going "all in" this year and will get Josh the weapons he needs offensively with Dhop/Bijan.

Bwhahahahahahahhahaha!! Grundles!!!!  You’ve been having nightly (and day) dreams of Bijan haven’t you?