UPDATED - v3.0 (FINAL) on p.13 - Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just don't know that a team will jump into the 1st. Who are they jumping over? I get the 5th year option argument but I look at the top of the 2nd and I see teams who either already have their guy or will have drafted one round 1. 

 

No. But nor is it relevant here.

Regardless,  McDuffie was the better player last season.

[Doc Brown]

I really like this mock and the rationale behind it.  A couple of thoughts.  I could see Tennessee taking Levis at #11.  I'm not sure Gonzalez drops out of the top 10.  Also, if the board plays out that way I think either Campbell or Sanders is the pick for the Bills.  Most likely Campbell.

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I'm interested in what other moves people think the Bills might make in the event the board falls as this did and they can't trade back.

 

I also posted this in the draft rumors thread - I have a credible source that says the Bills really want Jordan Addison. So your preferred 1st round pick may come to fruition. In the scenario that you mocked I believe we would trade above the Giants because we know that WR is a big need for them. Much like they did with Elam last year they would take the small trade up to ensure they come away with a player they really desire.

[Einstein]

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I also posted this in the draft rumors thread - I have a credible source that says the Bills really want Jordan Addison. So your preferred 1st round pick may come to fruition. In the scenario that you mocked I believe we would trade above the Giants because we know that WR is a big need for them. Much like they did with Elam last year they would take the small trade up to ensure they come away with a player they really desire.

 

Why does it not surprise me that the Bills allegedly want another tiny receiver.

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Regardless,  McDuffie was the better player last season.

 

And regardless of THAT, the Chiefs allowed the most passing TD's in the entire NFL.    Their offense carried them to a SB.

 

I'm not sold that either of them will be tremendous but it was understood that McDuffie was further along in his development........perhaps in part because he's around 16 months older.  But Elam has the higher ceiling due to greater length and ball skills........and in round 1 the higher ceiling is my preference.    

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I also posted this in the draft rumors thread - I have a credible source that says the Bills really want Jordan Addison. So your preferred 1st round pick may come to fruition. In the scenario that you mocked I believe we would trade above the Giants because we know that WR is a big need for them. Much like they did with Elam last year they would take the small trade up to ensure they come away with a player they really desire.

I posted upstream I think a trade with Jax to get ahead of the Giants is a huge possibility.  The common needs of the Bills/Giants and with the Giants having so many ex-Bills on their staff would seem to make it more likely than normal.  I used Addison as an example.

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, Process said:

GB what do you think about OT Harrison at 27? I would much rather upgrade at RT and start Davis than start Brown and draft Hyatt. 

 

Because you asked about him yesterday and I know @Alphadawg7 likes him too as an option at #27... I notice WalterFootball has added him to the Bills list of private meetings over the past couple of days. Haven't seen that reported anywhere else but if true add Harrison to Hyatt and Mazi Smith as realistic picks the Bills could make at #27 if the board fell as it does here. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And regardless of THAT, the Chiefs allowed the most passing TD's in the entire NFL.    Their offense carried them to a SB.

 

I'm not sold that either of them will be tremendous but it was understood that McDuffie was further along in his development........perhaps in part because he's around 16 months older.  But Elam has the higher ceiling due to greater length and ball skills........and in round 1 the higher ceiling is my preference.    

 

McDuffie definitely being further ahead is true. I did actually have McDuffie just ahead of Elam. They were CB5 and CB6 for me. But my point has never been to say "Elam is the better player that's why the Bills picked him." It has been to say McDuffie doesn't fit their profile and they were not about to take him if KC didn't. Something people I talk to closer to the team than I have since confirmed. 

 

I'm actually hopeful on Elam. I thought he was better than I expected as a rookie. Hopefully he can make a jump this year. Kinda feel like the entire success of the 2022 draft is on his shoulders because even if Cook takes a step it is at a low value position and I have very little faith in Bernard.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Why does it not surprise me that the Bills allegedly want another tiny receiver.

 

It shouldn't because everyone knows they want a receiver and this class doesn't have many size guys, especially early, and the one it does have plays small in any event. I am sure the Bills would love to add a high class speed/size guy. They just are not in this draft.

[NeverOutNick]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because you asked about him yesterday and I know @Alphadawg7 likes him too as an option at #27... I notice WalterFootball has added him to the Bills list of private meetings over the past couple of days. Haven't seen that reported anywhere else but if true add Harrison to Hyatt and Mazi Smith as realistic picks the Bills could make at #27 if the board fell as it does here. 

I have to get over my unfair biased against Oklahoma offensive lineman after the Cody Ford fiasco so I can give this guy a fair assessment lol

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I have to get over my unfair biased against Oklahoma offensive lineman after the Cody Ford fiasco so I can give this guy a fair assessment lol

 

The question is does Brandon share your bias given that Cody is probably his biggest bust? 

[entropyrules]

23 hours ago, ganesh said:

The Bills have signed Veteran FA for the IOL position. I doubt they draft for IOL in the 1st three rounds as they have big needs at WR, DR, LB ahead of IOL

I don't strongly disagree as to your assessment of the Bills' strategy going into the draft. But aren't these IOl signings more of journeymen and not linemen who will actually keep Allen upright?

[JoPoy88]

On 4/16/2023 at 7:11 AM, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0..... post free-agency some pieces have moved. I normally try and throw a trade or two in this one but struggled to find trades I liked enough to make happen. Anyway... flame away!!!

 

1.      Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

I don’t buy that the Panthers moved up to #1 before they had made a decision on a Quarterback. You don’t make that trade thinking you “might” like one of two guys, you make that move up when you have identified a Quarterback who can be the face of the franchise. I believe Bryce Young is the best in the class, and I suspect that is where Carolina has landed.

 

2.      Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

If Young is off the board I don’t think it is an absolute lock that the Texans go Quarterback. If someone wanted to trade up and give them a boatload of picks I think they’d listen, but ultimately I suspect they end up deciding that this is the last of their years drafting in the top 5 and so need to take a shot on Stroud as the man to execute their new Shanahan style offense.

 

3.      Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

This is also a prime trade up spot if a team wants to jump Indianapolis for a Quarterback, but from the rumours I’m hearing the Cardinals want one of Anderson or Tyree Wilson and are not willing to move back so far that both are out of reach. Anderson is the safer of the two and I expect him to be the first non-QB off the board if Arizona stays at #3.

 

4.      Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

In version 1.0 I had Will Levis at this spot but that was before the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their head coach. Having seen the success he had in Philadelphia coordinating a multiple offense with a dual threat Quarterback they might feel comfortable swinging for the fences on the raw potential of Anthony Richardson.

 

5.      Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

I have never bought the “Carter sliding out of the top 10” buzz. I get the character concerns but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of his talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior.

 

6.      Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Corner, Illinois

The trading away of Jeff Okudah makes it even more likely that the Lions are targeting the best corner in the class at #6. From what I read who that is depends on which team you ask with Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all being ranked #1 on some boards. But the rumour mill is attaching Witherspoon to the Lions most frequently so he is the pick.

 

7.      Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

In the event that the Raiders don’t go Quarterback they are in prime position to address needs on the offensive line or at corner. Knowing that they are hitching their wagon to the injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback I expect protection is the order of the day at #7, especially as the cornerback depth in round 2 is stronger than the offensive line depth. Skoronski could start immediately at right tackle or inside at guard.

 

8.      Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

The Falcons pass rush has been a disaster for a while now. I thought they should have addressed it in the top 10 last year when they reached for Drake London, they can’t ignore it again. Wilson is a freak and he reminds me of Marcus Davenport who the Saints traded way up to acquire when new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was their defensive line coach.

 

9.      Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

The Bears could happily trade back from #1 to #9 because they have needs basically everywhere. Johnson is the best tackle in this class and plugging him in at left tackle in front of former Buckeyes teammate Justin Fields as the Quarterback heads into a critical year 3 is a major upgrade on the blindside.

 

10.   Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. Van Ness is more potential than production at this stage but he feels like a fit both in terms of physical profile and character.

 

11.   Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The Titans are either going offensive line or wide receiver at this spot. I know they signed Andre Dillard as a free agent but he has been a career backup despite being a former first round pick of the Eagles and he can play inside at guard too. If the chance to land one of the premier tackles presents itself that is the direction I think they should go.

 

12.   Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The current consensus is moving towards Smith-Njigba being the first receiver drafted and that is understandable. In a draft class with very few sure things he has a high floor and at the very least should be a productive player from the slot. I’m sure the Texans would love to use him as a move receiver lining up all over the formation in their new offense.

 

13.   New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson  

The Jets edge position has already seen a ton of resources during the Robert Salah era but whether it has been injuries, disappointing production, or clunky scheme fits they still haven’t nailed it. When Saleh was in San Francisco they continued to pour resources into the defensive line until they got it right and with the offensive line guys off the board that is what I could see the Jets doing.

 

14.   New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

Part of me thinks Bill Belichick is just trolling us all but I am going to take the bait with regards to the Patriots love affair with Flowers. Allegedly they spent his top 30 visit teaching him the entire offense, he does have quick twitch acceleration which is a need, and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east. A lot of the pieces fit.

 

15.   Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

Someone who is quite plugged into Green Bay told me recently that if Skoronski is still on the board he is the Packers’ guy. The bad news for them is I don’t think he will be. I do think Tight End is in play here but Dalton Kincaid isn’t a complete tight end, doesn’t block and as such doesn’t really fit their offense. When in doubt with the Packers pick a defensive back and they do have a hole at safety that Branch could fill.

 

16.   Washington Commanders – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Maybe the Commanders really will go into a season with Sam Howell as their starter, but new ownership usually brings pressure to find a Quarterback and if Levis has slid this far I can imagine Washington feeling as though they have to take him.

 

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Personally I have Gonzalez as the best corner in the class and he would be incredible value here for the Steelers. I think their priority is left tackle, but there isn’t one left at this spot and as such I think they would prioritise the premium positional need at corner over a right tackle only like Darnell Wright. Gonzalez starts opposite Patrick Peterson day 1.

 

18.   Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

This is the first spot that really makes sense for me for Bijan unless the Eagles take him at #10. A running back, even one as good as him, is a first round luxury but for a team with two first round picks it could be justified especially as the Lions lost their power back Jamaal Williams to the Saints in free agency.

 

19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

The Buccs cut their left tackle Donovan Smith earlier in the offseason and their preference seems to be to move all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the blindside. That would leave a gap at right tackle and Wright could slide straight in and start in front of Baker Mayfield.

 

20.   Seattle Seahawks – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida

Seattle hit a home run at offensive tackle last year with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Adding Torrence at guard would give them one of the better lines in the NFL and he is a scheme fit for the way they want to run the ball up the middle with Kenneth Walker.

 

21.   Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU

Keenan Allen has been a stalwart for the Chargers but he turns 31 on day one of the draft and missed time hurt in 2022. Mike Williams is an almost certain cap casualty (or major re-negotiation) after the season as his 2024 cap number is $32m. This team needs to look to the future at receiver. Tom Telesco has a type at the position – he values size – so Johnston is the obvious fit.

 

22.   Baltimore Ravens – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

With OBJ in the building and Lamar increasingly looking like he could still be on the roster come draft day I think an edge rusher becomes the priority for the Ravens. 2021 first rounder Odafe Oweh flashed as a rookie in a situational role but recorded just 3 sacks last season despite 6 starts. Smith is a bit of a project technique wise but he is an impressive physical specimen.

 

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

This is sprint to the podium time for the Vikings who probably couldn’t imagine one of the top three corners sliding this far. Patrick Peterson left in free agency, Cam Dantzler was cut and their gamble on Andrew Booth in the second round last year despite questionable medicals didn’t immediately work out as he managed just 6 games and ended up on IR. Porter starts day 1.

 

24.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

The Jaguars are another team glad to see the corners fall down the board a little. 2nd year player Tyson Campbell had a breakout season in 2022 but the corner spot opposite him was a weakness all year. If the offense keeps scoring then teams will be passing a lot on Jacksonville. Having two capable corners is a must.

 

25.   New York Giants – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

The Giants are bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley, but receiver remains a need. Addison’s best fit is in a creative offense that is going to move him around the formation and exploit mismatches. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are the perfect duo to exploit his skillset.

 

26.   Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

If Kincaid gets to #26 he will get no further. Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency and while Jake Ferguson had his moments as a rookie he is an athletically limited day 3 draft pick going into year 2. Kincaid, in contrast, is a genuine weapon in the passing game for a team committed to putting more around CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott.

 

27.   Buffalo Bills – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up? If they don’t I’d lean towards receiver as the pick even though Hyatt is  arguably a bit of a reach. The Bills have had a lot of receivers, including Hyatt, in for top 30 visits and that is usually a strong indicator of where this regime are at in terms of positional priority.

 

28.   Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame

I think defensive back is definitely in play for the Bengals here, they lost both starting safeties in free agency and didn’t bring Eli Apple back at corner. But they did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last year and the depth of the class at corner might lead them to think they can wait on that spot. They also lost Hayden Hurst in free agency so a tight end that blocks and can be a safety valve in the passing game for Joe Burrow might be too good to pass on.

 

29.   New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, Defensive Tackle, Michigan

The Saints were not the strongest at defensive tackle in 2022, and that is before they lost both starters in free agency to teams within their division. Mazi Smith is already proven as a space eater but he still feels like he has untapped potential as a penetrator given his physical profile. He’d be an immediate starter.

 

30.   Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one.

 

31.   Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Frank Clark hadn’t lived up to his contract the past two seasons, but he contributed for Chiefs in the playoffs and his departure means they are thin at edge. They drafted Karlaftis last year and he had six sacks as a rookie but they need a more dynamic fast twitch threat and Anudike-Uzomah from just up the road at Kansas State has explosive burst and bend to hunt down Quarterbacks.

fantastic work as always Gunn. I’d be happy with that pick.

[Norcalbillsfan]

I like the Paris Johnson to bears, that pick makes so much sense. But Hyatt doesn't excite me as much as I'd like. I think if that's the way the draft falls I see the bills trading back or taking mazi there. But gunner makes a great point, will the bills find a trade back partner? Other than maybe the raiders if they want to get a 5th year option on a qb?

[BillsShredder83]

15 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Why does it not surprise me that the Bills allegedly want another tiny receiver.

YAC is where were missing out. keep fixing the line and dawson can be our big guy. stef is also a possession WR. he can YAC but when we  need a first, he can get open at the sticks

[Einstein]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And regardless of THAT, the Chiefs allowed the most passing TD's in the entire NFL.    Their offense carried them to a SB.

 

McDuffie missed around 40% of the season due to an injury. Thats part of the reason the KC pass D was bad.

 

But McDuffie himself was very good.

 

It will take tremendous strides this upcoming season for Elam to even catch up to where McDuffie was last year. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

McDuffie missed around 40% of the season due to an injury. Thats part of the reason the KC pass D was bad.

 

But McDuffie himself was very good.

 

It will take tremendous strides this upcoming season for Elam to even catch up to where McDuffie was last year. 

 

I think he had a good rookie year. He didn't play a good game in the Superbowl, where he was definitely outplayed by his teammate, the 7th round rook on the other side of the field. The point with McDuffie is I think what you saw as a rookie is pretty close to the ceiling. I agree Elam still has a gap to close. It might even take him two years to close it, and he might never close it.... but I don't think there is that much more to come from McDuffie. I think he will be consistent, but not sure I see how he gets a lot better. 

 

And I repeat I had McDuffie graded just above Elam, because Elam was more potential than production.

Edited April 17, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Warriorspikes51]

I love Hyatt. But, really have no idea where he goes in the draft.  I could see anywhere from the late teens to the 50's 

Hyatt's 40 time at the Combine was supposedly 4.4?   His game speed is faster for sure.  Torched Alabama

Hyatt also seems to have drive to be elite. He has swagger and belief in himself 

Hyatt and Josh develop chemistry and the home run bomb will be deadly 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

YAC is where were missing out. keep fixing the line and dawson can be our big guy. stef is also a possession WR. he can YAC but when we  need a first, he can get open at the sticks

I think Addison is that guy. He gets open and is good at creating the separation necessary to run Daboll's windows passing scheme. The Bills don't want contested catch guys -- they want guys who naturally get open (because they're great route runners with elite short-area quickness) and don't HAVE to contest the catch. I will not be shocked if they trade up for Addison. I'm not too concerned about his size either. He is the type of WR the Bills truly covet -- a natural separator: https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jordan-addison-f4990987-eb16-4e7d-85ae-2f8d36289bbd/. 

 

PS - it's why they really wanted Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders was historically one of the best separators of the past decade in terms of measured distance of separation on a per pass basis. Diggs is also elite in that category.

Edited April 17, 2023 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

Another comment about Addison: I think the Bills like the Pitt program, which does produce a lot of pros. In 2021, against the second ranked defense in college football that season (Clemson), Addison had 5 catches for 84 yards and a TD in a 27-17 win. I'm pretty sure he was matched up against Andre Booth, who was a second round pick. Point is, he produced vs a top-end defense with a top-shelf college corner. Booth is on the Vikings and missed the last 11 games because of a meniscus tear in week 6. 

 

And the Bills certainly aren't going to fault Addison for transferring to USC. It made a lot of sense.

Edited April 17, 2023 by dave mcbride