UPDATED - v3.0 (FINAL) on p.13 - Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft

[MrEpsYtown]

Great work. If the draft falls like this I would just go linebacker or edge. I think all the high end guys are gone. I understand the premise for Hyatt, but I also think a Will Fuller type isn’t worth a first round pick. I suppose in a weak draft I could accept it and I like Hyatt’s potential to into develop more, but it’s a meh for me. He is not going to run by guys in the NFL the way he did in college. I would take any of Simpson/Sanders/Campbell or an edge like Keion White or a DT in Mazi Smith in that case. JMO

Edited April 16, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea Hyatt is a vertical only receiver really. I don't think the Bills are going OL in the first. I'd consider Harrison if it were me, but putting the pieces together of the Beane pressers, the effusive talk about Spencer Brown and the fact they have been very light on OL visitors so far that we know about I don't think it is their plan. He is in the clump of players (after Trenton Simpson) that would be in consideration by my personal board (I'd have S

Every man and his dog knew that the Bills wanted a CB last year … and what happened, they got jumped by the Chiefs in Round 1..and it seemed to rattle them a bit on the day..

 

I have no idea if they are looking at OL or not… but I’m sure they are doing a bit more this year to “muddy the waters “ so I wouldn’t necessarily be thinking Beane is being entirely up front and honest in what he has said publicly so far…

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Every man and his dog knew that the Bills wanted a CB last year … and what happened, they got jumped by the Chiefs in Round 1..and it seemed to rattle them a bit on the day..

 

I have no idea if they are looking at OL or not… but I’m sure they are doing a bit more this year to “muddy the waters “ so I wouldn’t necessarily be thinking Beane is being entirely up front and honest in what he has said publicly so far…

 

Maybe. But I wouldn't bank on it. I just don't think it is how they operate. Beane is very straight up.

 

[wppete]

Nice work! 

[NeverOutNick]

23 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Every man and his dog knew that the Bills wanted a CB last year … and what happened, they got jumped by the Chiefs in Round 1..and it seemed to rattle them a bit on the day..

 

I have no idea if they are looking at OL or not… but I’m sure they are doing a bit more this year to “muddy the waters “ so I wouldn’t necessarily be thinking Beane is being entirely up front and honest in what he has said publicly so far…

Man I hope you’re right. 

[Einstein's Dog]

Appreciate the effort, enjoy reading.  I agree with MrEpsyTown above though.  To me, Hyatt looks too similar to the WR additions they already got (Harty/Sherfield).  I think the Bills would take their top choice at mlb in this instance, and I believe that to be J Campbell (although I can see reasons to think that may not be the case).

 

I think there is a very good chance of the Bills trading up with Jax for their pick.   Getting ahead of the Giants might be wanted for a couple of different reasons.  One is the Bills may have a significant tier drop on WRs right after Addison.  So if Addison is still there, jumping ahead of the Giants makes sense. 

 

The second reason a trade w Jax makes sense is if Addison is gone (along with the expected other WRs).    Then once again the Bills may want to jump NYG to get the top mlb (because that is a need for the Giants as well).  The Bills could feel that there is a drop off from the top mlb to the next tier and that the NYG have it ranked the same way (and they know the NYG staff enough to have a good feel that they are on the same page in evaluations).

 

 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

they got jumped by the Chiefs in Round 1..and it seemed to rattle them a bit on the day..

 

Some posters will deny this, but I 100% believe that this is what happened. Bills wanted McDuffie.

[BillsShredder83]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0..... post free-agency some pieces have moved. I normally try and throw a trade or two in this one but struggled to find trades I liked enough to make happen. Anyway... flame away!!!

 

1.      Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

I don’t buy that the Panthers moved up to #1 before they had made a decision on a Quarterback. You don’t make that trade thinking you “might” like one of two guys, you make that move up when you have identified a Quarterback who can be the face of the franchise. I believe Bryce Young is the best in the class, and I suspect that is where Carolina has landed.

 

2.      Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

If Young is off the board I don’t think it is an absolute lock that the Texans go Quarterback. If someone wanted to trade up and give them a boatload of picks I think they’d listen, but ultimately I suspect they end up deciding that this is the last of their years drafting in the top 5 and so need to take a shot on Stroud as the man to execute their new Shanahan style offense.

 

3.      Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

This is also a prime trade up spot if a team wants to jump Indianapolis for a Quarterback, but from the rumours I’m hearing the Cardinals want one of Anderson or Tyree Wilson and are not willing to move back so far that both are out of reach. Anderson is the safer of the two and I expect him to be the first non-QB off the board if Arizona stays at #3.

 

4.      Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

In version 1.0 I had Will Levis at this spot but that was before the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their head coach. Having seen the success he had in Philadelphia coordinating a multiple offense with a dual threat Quarterback they might feel comfortable swinging for the fences on the raw potential of Anthony Richardson.

 

5.      Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

I have never bought the “Carter sliding out of the top 10” buzz. I get the character concerns but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of his talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior.

 

6.      Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Corner, Illinois

The trading away of Jeff Okudah makes it even more likely that the Lions are targeting the best corner in the class at #6. From what I read who that is depends on which team you ask with Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all being ranked #1 on some boards. But the rumour mill is attaching Witherspoon to the Lions most frequently so he is the pick.

 

7.      Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

In the event that the Raiders don’t go Quarterback they are in prime position to address needs on the offensive line or at corner. Knowing that they are hitching their wagon to the injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback I expect protection is the order of the day at #7, especially as the cornerback depth in round 2 is stronger than the offensive line depth. Skoronski could start immediately at right tackle or inside at guard.

 

8.      Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

The Falcons pass rush has been a disaster for a while now. I thought they should have addressed it in the top 10 last year when they reached for Drake London, they can’t ignore it again. Wilson is a freak and he reminds me of Marcus Davenport who the Saints traded way up to acquire when new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was their defensive line coach.

 

9.      Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

The Bears could happily trade back from #1 to #9 because they have needs basically everywhere. Johnson is the best tackle in this class and plugging him in at left tackle in front of former Buckeyes teammate Justin Fields as the Quarterback heads into a critical year 3 is a major upgrade on the blindside.

 

10.   Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. Van Ness is more potential than production at this stage but he feels like a fit both in terms of physical profile and character.

 

11.   Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The Titans are either going offensive line or wide receiver at this spot. I know they signed Andre Dillard as a free agent but he has been a career backup despite being a former first round pick of the Eagles and he can play inside at guard too. If the chance to land one of the premier tackles presents itself that is the direction I think they should go.

 

12.   Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The current consensus is moving towards Smith-Njigba being the first receiver drafted and that is understandable. In a draft class with very few sure things he has a high floor and at the very least should be a productive player from the slot. I’m sure the Texans would love to use him as a move receiver lining up all over the formation in their new offense.

 

13.   New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson  

The Jets edge position has already seen a ton of resources during the Robert Salah era but whether it has been injuries, disappointing production, or clunky scheme fits they still haven’t nailed it. When Saleh was in San Francisco they continued to pour resources into the defensive line until they got it right and with the offensive line guys off the board that is what I could see the Jets doing.

 

14.   New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

Part of me thinks Bill Belichick is just trolling us all but I am going to take the bait with regards to the Patriots love affair with Flowers. Allegedly they spent his top 30 visit teaching him the entire offense, he does have quick twitch acceleration which is a need, and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east. A lot of the pieces fit.

 

15.   Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

Someone who is quite plugged into Green Bay told me recently that if Skoronski is still on the board he is the Packers’ guy. The bad news for them is I don’t think he will be. I do think Tight End is in play here but Dalton Kincaid isn’t a complete tight end, doesn’t block and as such doesn’t really fit their offense. When in doubt with the Packers pick a defensive back and they do have a hole at safety that Branch could fill.

 

16.   Washington Commanders – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Maybe the Commanders really will go into a season with Sam Howell as their starter, but new ownership usually brings pressure to find a Quarterback and if Levis has slid this far I can imagine Washington feeling as though they have to take him.

 

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Personally I have Gonzalez as the best corner in the class and he would be incredible value here for the Steelers. I think their priority is left tackle, but there isn’t one left at this spot and as such I think they would prioritise the premium positional need at corner over a right tackle only like Darnell Wright. Gonzalez starts opposite Patrick Peterson day 1.

 

18.   Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

This is the first spot that really makes sense for me for Bijan unless the Eagles take him at #10. A running back, even one as good as him, is a first round luxury but for a team with two first round picks it could be justified especially as the Lions lost their power back Jamaal Williams to the Saints in free agency.

 

19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

The Buccs cut their left tackle Donovan Smith earlier in the offseason and their preference seems to be to move all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the blindside. That would leave a gap at right tackle and Wright could slide straight in and start in front of Baker Mayfield.

 

20.   Seattle Seahawks – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida

Seattle hit a home run at offensive tackle last year with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Adding Torrence at guard would give them one of the better lines in the NFL and he is a scheme fit for the way they want to run the ball up the middle with Kenneth Walker.

 

21.   Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU

Keenan Allen has been a stalwart for the Chargers but he turns 31 on day one of the draft and missed time hurt in 2022. Mike Williams is an almost certain cap casualty (or major re-negotiation) after the season as his 2024 cap number is $32m. This team needs to look to the future at receiver. Tom Telesco has a type at the position – he values size – so Johnston is the obvious fit.

 

22.   Baltimore Ravens – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

With OBJ in the building and Lamar increasingly looking like he could still be on the roster come draft day I think an edge rusher becomes the priority for the Ravens. 2021 first rounder Odafe Oweh flashed as a rookie in a situational role but recorded just 3 sacks last season despite 6 starts. Smith is a bit of a project technique wise but he is an impressive physical specimen.

 

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

This is sprint to the podium time for the Vikings who probably couldn’t imagine one of the top three corners sliding this far. Patrick Peterson left in free agency, Cam Dantzler was cut and their gamble on Andrew Booth in the second round last year despite questionable medicals didn’t immediately work out as he managed just 6 games and ended up on IR. Porter starts day 1.

 

24.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

The Jaguars are another team glad to see the corners fall down the board a little. 2nd year player Tyson Campbell had a breakout season in 2022 but the corner spot opposite him was a weakness all year. If the offense keeps scoring then teams will be passing a lot on Jacksonville. Having two capable corners is a must.

 

25.   New York Giants – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

The Giants are bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley, but receiver remains a need. Addison’s best fit is in a creative offense that is going to move him around the formation and exploit mismatches. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are the perfect duo to exploit his skillset.

 

26.   Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

If Kincaid gets to #26 he will get no further. Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency and while Jake Ferguson had his moments as a rookie he is an athletically limited day 3 draft pick going into year 2. Kincaid, in contrast, is a genuine weapon in the passing game for a team committed to putting more around CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott.

 

27.   Buffalo Bills – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up? If they don’t I’d lean towards receiver as the pick even though Hyatt is  arguably a bit of a reach. The Bills have had a lot of receivers, including Hyatt, in for top 30 visits and that is usually a strong indicator of where this regime are at in terms of positional priority.

 

28.   Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame

I think defensive back is definitely in play for the Bengals here, they lost both starting safeties in free agency and didn’t bring Eli Apple back at corner. But they did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last year and the depth of the class at corner might lead them to think they can wait on that spot. They also lost Hayden Hurst in free agency so a tight end that blocks and can be a safety valve in the passing game for Joe Burrow might be too good to pass on.

 

29.   New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, Defensive Tackle, Michigan

The Saints were not the strongest at defensive tackle in 2022, and that is before they lost both starters in free agency to teams within their division. Mazi Smith is already proven as a space eater but he still feels like he has untapped potential as a penetrator given his physical profile. He’d be an immediate starter.

 

30.   Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one.

 

31.   Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Frank Clark hadn’t lived up to his contract the past two seasons, but he contributed for Chiefs in the playoffs and his departure means they are thin at edge. They drafted Karlaftis last year and he had six sacks as a rookie but they need a more dynamic fast twitch threat and Anudike-Uzomah from just up the road at Kansas State has explosive burst and bend to hunt down Quarterbacks.

if addison and hyatt were there at 27 do you change your pick?

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

if addison and hyatt were there at 27 do you change your pick?

 

Yes!

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Some posters will deny this, but I 100% believe that this is what happened. Bills wanted McDuffie.

 

They didn't.

[BigAl2526]

Hyatt has speed.  Of that there is no question.  He's also got things he has to work on.  He needs to get stronger and expand his route tree.  His scouting report says he lacks deception on his short and intermediate routes.  All that stuff can at least potentially improve with good coaching and hard work on Hyatt's part.  As has been noted, Buffalo's options depend greatly on how the draft plays out and could be veery limited.  I am OK with Hyatt being the pick.

[Aussie Joe]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They didn't.

Can’t say I know one way or the other who they preferred … but after the Chiefs pick ..Beane was paying whatever it took to move up for Elam…

 

My guess would be that they we’re probably ok with either .

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Can’t say I know one way or the other who they preferred … but after the Chiefs pick ..Beane was paying whatever it took to move up for Elam…

 

My guess would be that they we’re probably ok with either .

 

I do know. Elam was their guy. 

[Solomon Grundy]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

Do you have visions of Wil Wolford, Jim Ritcher, Glenn Parker, Kent Hull and House Ballard too?  Becasue those guys made things happen.  We have Spencer Brown if you didn’t know

Of course I do!! I've been scouring the USFL for Kent Hull type. We blew our chance at Wolford with Cody Ford pick. Rome wasn't built in a day you know 😎

[HappyDays]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up?

 

What so you think about a team like the Raiders wanting to jump the Saints and draft Hendon Hooker? That's been a trendy outcome in some mock drafts that I've looked at. In fact it's exactly what I did as the Raiders in the TSW mock draft. The Raiders have a whopping 12 picks in this draft, and we only have 6, so it would make sense.

 

A simple trade would be we trade back to pick 38, and in exchange they give us pick 100 and pick 109.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They didn't.

 

Denial isn't just a river in Egypt

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

Can’t say I know one way or the other who they preferred … but after the Chiefs pick ..Beane was paying whatever it took to move up for Elam…

 

Yep and if you watch the behind the scenes footage of when the Chiefs moved up, the shock on Beane and Grays face was incredible. I'm actually surprised they didn't edit that part out.

 

Beane also said that Elam was the last player with a 1st round grade on their board. Which either means they had McDuffie graded higher OR they had McDuffie as a 2nd round grade. Which might be even worse, considering how great of a rookie season he had.

 

A friend of mine who reports on the Bills say the Bills had the players graded fairly evenly. Taking that info into account, combined with what Beane said about Elam being their last first round grade, plus the video of them being shocked when KC moved up, tells me that the Bills would have taken McDuffie. 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

What so you think about a team like the Raiders wanting to jump the Saints and draft Hendon Hooker? That's been a trendy outcome in some mock drafts that I've looked at. In fact it's exactly what I did as the Raiders in the TSW mock draft. The Raiders have a whopping 12 picks in this draft, and we only have 6, so it would make sense.

 

A simple trade would be we trade back to pick 38, and in exchange they give us pick 100 and pick 109.

 

I just don't know that a team will jump into the 1st. Who are they jumping over? I get the 5th year option argument but I look at the top of the 2nd and I see teams who either already have their guy or will have drafted one round 1. 

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Denial isn't just a river in Egypt

 

No. But nor is it relevant here.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Some posters will deny this, but I 100% believe that this is what happened. Bills wanted McDuffie.

I believe that they had both mckduffie and Elam on the board as first rounders

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Who are they jumping over?

 

Potentially the Saints. I know they signed Derek Carr but he is 32 years old and he isn't the caliber of QB that stops you from drafting one. The Saints could conceivably trade him next offseason and save money against the cap in 2024. For a team picking below them that really wants a QB, the risk of waiting may be too great.

 

My logic for the Raiders being that trade up team is that everyone in that regime is now on the hot seat. Do they really want their do or die season to be in the hands of Jimmy Garrappolo? Hooker has good pocket passer size and his best traits are in the rhythm/quick passing game. I could see McDaniels liking that skill set. You figure if Garrappolo isn't getting it done, maybe Hooker steps in late in the season and leads them to some ostensibly meaningless wins, but those wins at least get the fanbase and ownership excited. That could be enough to buy McDaniels and company another year.