UPDATED - v3.0 (FINAL) on p.13 - Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft

[dave mcbride]

At the risk of beating a dead horse, what really strikes me about this Addison highlight reel is the short-area footwork, which is very impressive. He soooo reminds me of Diggs, and I truly believe the Bills value players like him in their scheme over guys like Jaylin Hyatt and Quenton Johnston: 

 

[Alphadawg7]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because you asked about him yesterday and I know @Alphadawg7 likes him too as an option at #27... I notice WalterFootball has added him to the Bills list of private meetings over the past couple of days. Haven't seen that reported anywhere else but if true add Harrison to Hyatt and Mazi Smith as realistic picks the Bills could make at #27 if the board fell as it does here. 

It’s hard not to like Harrison for us.  He’s probably the 2nd best pure pass blocking OL in the draft.  And it’s no secret we are a high volume pass attack and that’s not likely going to change anytime soon with Josh Allen here.

 

That being said, I still think a WR is probably their preferred target, but like you said it all depends on how the board falls.  I could see us going OL if their top playmaker options are gone if said OL is their BPA.  And I think Harrison would be in that convo or maybe someone like O’Cyrus falls to us (although I expect him to go before our pick).  

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It’s hard not to like Harrison for us.  He’s probably the 2nd best pure pass blocking OL in the draft.  And it’s no secret we are a high volume pass attack and that’s not likely going to change anytime soon with Josh Allen here.

 

That being said, I still think a WR is probably their preferred target, but like you said it all depends on how the board falls.  I could see us going OL if their top playmaker options are gone if said OL is their BPA.  And I think Harrison would be in that convo or maybe someone like O’Cyrus falls to us (although I expect him to go before our pick).  

If Addison makes it 20, I'm doing what I can to trade up if I'm Beane. I have a feeling he won't last, however ...

[Coach Tuesday]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

At the risk of beating a dead horse, what really strikes me about this Addison highlight reel is the short-area footwork, which is very impressive. He soooo reminds me of Diggs, and I truly believe the Bills value players like him in their scheme over guys like Jaylin Hyatt and Quenton Johnston: 

 

 

Definitely a lot of Diggs in those highlights, with some Deebo mixed in.

[Einstein's Dog]

18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

If Addison makes it 20, I'm doing what I can to trade up if I'm Beane. I have a feeling he won't last, however ...

Moving up 7 spots generally costs a lot though.  Moving up two spots last year cost a 4th.  I don't think they'll go for much more than that.  I like the highlights of Addison but as you allude to I don't think he'll make it to 27.  Not with Seattle and Minn along with possibly the Giants.

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

If Addison makes it 20, I'm doing what I can to trade up if I'm Beane. I have a feeling he won't last, however ...

Agreed, I think that is the time Beane will look to move up, and if the buzz is true and they love Addison, then yes that’s when they start looking at ways to get him.

 

I personally would love to land Addison.  My comments about OL were more about if we missed out on the playmakers we wanted and ended up staying out at 27.  But I do still think they want to go get a WR and that a trade up if their guy is getting close is possible.

 

Dallas picking ahead of us is a real problem, they could easily go with an offensive playmaker there too, so wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Beane trade up somewhere in the 20’s to get their guy.  

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Moving up 7 spots generally costs a lot though.  Moving up two spots last year cost a 4th.  I don't think they'll go for much more than that.  I like the highlights of Addison but as you allude to I don't think he'll make it to 27.  Not with Seattle and Minn along with possibly the Giants.

You keep trying to increase the odds the jump up is for Campbell

Think it is more likely for Addison. In a draft shallow with true first rounders and very thin at first round wr, I can see Beane spending draft capital even though he only has six picks to begin with. The rumors out there are the Bills are enamored with Addison.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Agreed, I think that is the time Beane will look to move up, and if the buzz is true and they love Addison, then yes that’s when they start looking at ways to get him.

 

I personally would love to land Addison.  My comments about OL were more about if we missed out on the playmakers we wanted and ended up staying out at 27.  But I do still think they want to go get a WR and that a trade up if their guy is getting close is possible.

 

Dallas picking ahead of us is a real problem, they could easily go with an offensive playmaker there too, so wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Beane trade up somewhere in the 20’s to get their guy.  

All true. My concern is that GMs think a lot like Daniel Jeremiah, who has him as the top WR and 13th overall: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2023-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-4-0. Given the positional value, I have a hard time seeing him last beyond 15, and the Bills simply don't have the ammo to trade up that far. But one can dream ...

[PBF81]

Very nicely done Gunner, that was a good read.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

All true. My concern is that GMs think a lot like Daniel Jeremiah, who has him as the top WR and 13th overall: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2023-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-4-0. Given the positional value, I have a hard time seeing him last beyond 15, and the Bills simply don't have the ammo to trade up that far. But one can dream ...

 

Agreed, I think he is the top WR in the class, and I also have a hard time seeing him get close enough to us where we could afford to trade up.  

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

You keep trying to increase the odds the jump up is for Campbell

Think it is more likely for Addison. In a draft shallow with true first rounders and very thin at first round wr, I can see Beane spending draft capital even though he only has six picks to begin with. The rumors out there are the Bills are enamored with Addison.

In Gunner's mock Addison lasted until the Giants and I think the Bills might give up their 4th to get ahead of the Giants and get Addison.  I would be excited. 

 

I don't think the Bills would give up a 3rd or more though, like dave mcbride above is suggesting.  They could probably get DHop for a 3rd.

 

And I don't think the draft will unfold with Addison available at 24.  But I do think there is still a good chance Beane will trade ahead of the Giants.  Often times Beane has a player he wants and seems to get nervous/antsy and moves up.  This feeling will be increased because it's Beane's students picking just two spots ahead of us.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed, I think he is the top WR in the class, and I also have a hard time seeing him get close enough to us where we could afford to trade up.  

 

JSN seems to be the consensus first to go. Then there are a couple of potential WR teams - New England and Baltimore who allegedly love Flowers. And I am sure if the Chargers go WR it is Johnston. They love size. 

 

I think Addison is the best in the class too. And I see no route to #27. But I can see a situation where he gets within 5 picks or so. And then is he a trade up possibility if they love him as much ae rumoured? Maybe. 

 

I might be talking myself into it (which I usually try and stay away from) because it is the best somewhat realistic scenario for me... but I can see a route.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

At the risk of beating a dead horse, what really strikes me about this Addison highlight reel is the short-area footwork, which is very impressive. He soooo reminds me of Diggs, and I truly believe the Bills value players like him in their scheme over guys like Jaylin Hyatt and Quenton Johnston: 

 

💯 

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

JSN seems to be the consensus first to go. Then there are a couple of potential WR teams - New England and Baltimore who allegedly love Flowers. And I am sure if the Chargers go WR it is Johnston. They love size. 

 

I think Addison is the best in the class too. And I see no route to #27. But I can see a situation where he gets within 5 picks or so. And then is he a trade up possibility if they love him as much ae rumoured? Maybe. 

 

I might be talking myself into it (which I usually try and stay away from) because it is the best somewhat realistic scenario for me... but I can see a route.

The thing about JSN is that he missed almost an entire season due to a hamstring injury. Here's the thing about hamstring injuries -- for many but certainly not all athletes, they're not one-time only ailments but injuries that recur and recur. I'm looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Giancarlo Stanton. I have no idea whether JSN is going to have chronic hamstring issues, but it's a factor to consider.  

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing about JSN is that he missed almost an entire season due to a hamstring injury. Here's the thing about hamstring injuries -- for many but certainly not all athletes, they're not one-time only ailments but injuries that recur and recur. I'm looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Giancarlo Stanton. I have no idea whether JSN is going to have chronic hamstring issues, but it's a factor to consider.  

 

I agree. JSN isn't my #1. He is #2 behind Addison. But based on the conversations I have he will be the first off the board.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

JSN seems to be the consensus first to go. Then there are a couple of potential WR teams - New England and Baltimore who allegedly love Flowers. And I am sure if the Chargers go WR it is Johnston. They love size. 

 

I think Addison is the best in the class too. And I see no route to #27. But I can see a situation where he gets within 5 picks or so. And then is he a trade up possibility if they love him as much ae rumoured? Maybe. 

 

I might be talking myself into it (which I usually try and stay away from) because it is the best somewhat realistic scenario for me... but I can see a route.

 

Honestly, this is really the exact way I see it as well.  I personally think Addison is the top WR, but I don't necessarily think he will be the first off the board.  Our best hope is he gets to around pick 20 and Beane starts hitting the phones.  I have a hard time seeing Beane spend what it would take to go higher than that.  And there is still a good chance he doesn't last to 20, or that someone else makes a more aggressive offer to trade up to get him than us.  

 

Fingers crossed, but I am not very optimistic he will get close enough to our pick where its a cost Beane would be willing to pay.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing about JSN is that he missed almost an entire season due to a hamstring injury. Here's the thing about hamstring injuries -- for many but certainly not all athletes, they're not one-time only ailments but injuries that recur and recur. I'm looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Giancarlo Stanton. I have no idea whether JSN is going to have chronic hamstring issues, but it's a factor to consider.  

 

 

Yeah, I've mentioned it before but JSN's bro had his minor league baseball ascent in the Yankees organization slowed by leg injuries so it was always in the back of my mind that JSN might as well.   Sometimes less muscle = less muscle to injure.   

[GunnerBill]

Okay after a small misstep this morning where the first time I thought I'd completed it I realised there was no JSN, here is my final version 3.0 for 2023. This is the mock I will grade myself against tomorrow. 

 

1.      Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

This pick is the one pick that everyone will get right. It’s locked in. The Panthers are going to make Bryce Young their Quarterback of the future and finally hope to have a long term heir to Cam Newton.

 

2.      Houston Texans – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

The thing you need to know about this pick is that DeMeco Ryans is making it. There has been something of a power struggle in Houston this spring and the Head Coach has won. Nick Caserio could well be out after the draft. Ryans comes from San Fran where they love long edge guys and none in this class are longer than Wilson.

 

3.      Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

I am sticking with Will Anderson here. The Cardinals have been doing a lot of work on Paris Johnson Jnr, but my belief is that is in the event that they trade back or that Anderson is gone before they select. Anderson is an instant difference maker in a pretty talent deficient front 7.

 

4.      Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Remember in draft season believe what you hear in January, dismiss what you hear in March. What I heard in January (indeed even in December) was that Colts GM Chris Ballard was enamoured with Levis. I’m going to stick with my gut. He is the Colts pick.

 

5.      Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

I think Seattle might consider Richardson if he is there (as he is in this mock) but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of Carter’s talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior.

 

6.      Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Cornerback, Illinois

Equally if Carter gets past the Seahawks I think the Lions pull the trigger. But if he doesn’t then this comes down to the best corner on their board. I believe that for this scheme and this staff that would be Witherspoon.

 

7.      Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon

Even with two Quarterbacks still on the board I’m not sure the Raiders go in that direction. This is offensive line or corner and I think corner is arguably the biggest weakness of the roster. Gonzalez is also the best player available by my board.

 

8.      Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas

If both of the top two edge guys and the top two corners are gone I can imagine Atlanta would be desperate to get out of this spot. However, what we know about this regime so far is it likes spending top 10 picks on offensive weaponry. A tight end in 2021. A wide receiver in 2022. A running back in 2023? Arthur Smith got his Head Coaching job on the back of Derick Henry’s exploits in Tennessee, maybe he looks to another runner to help him retain it.

 

9.      Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

I think the Bears will go offensive line with this pick. Skoronski could come into the reckoning, but I think you start with a guy that you know can lock down the left tackle and Justin Fields blind side. That is former Buckeye Paris Johnson.

 

10.   Philadelphia Eagles – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. I had Lukas Van Ness here in version 2.0 and he still feels like a better scheme fit, but multiple media guys I trust have reported the Eagles love Smith.

 

11.   Tennessee Titans – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida

There was a lot of talk two or three weeks back about Tennessee trying to trade up for Richardson. That talk has cooled and I wonder if that is, in part, because the way the top 5 is shaping up the Titans feel like they can get Richardson at their original spot, as they do here. The future is now in Nashville.

 

12.   Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

I confess it takes some mental agility for me to make sense of this. But Houston are dead set on a top pass rusher and a Quarterback with these picks according to John McClain their respected local beat guy. The only place to get one of the top two rushers is #2 so if they don’t love any of the other Quarterbacks after Young maybe they are willing to wait it out and take whoever gets here, or trade back up?

 

13.   Green Bay Packers – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern  

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is reportedly very highly rated by the Green Bay decision makers but I was told by a plugged in Packers blogger that if he is there, Skoronski will be the pick.

 

14.   New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College

Which means Zay Flowers would be the first wide receiver off the board if the Patriots really do love him as much as the buzz suggests. He does have that quick twitch acceleration which is a need in their offense and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east which is Bill’s MO. A lot of the pieces fit.

 

15.   New York Jets – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

If the Jets are able to snag Jones even after sliding back two spots as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade that is a massive win for them. With question marks of Mekhi Becton’s future and Duane Brown turning 38 before the season kicks off, tackle is a huge need.

 

16.   Washington Commanders – Emmanuel Forbes, Cornerback, Mississippi State

One of the most buzzy prospects in the final week or two of draft season has been Emmanuel Forbes. His slight frame is a concern but the more teams have dug into his tape the more the ball production has stood out. A number of teams now have him as CB3 and one of those is allegedly the Commanders who have a need at the position.

 

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee

In version 2.0 I considered Wright to the Steelers at this spot. Their need at tackle is significant but I wondered whether they would see a right tackle only guy like Wright as providing sufficient value at the spot. The reporting I’ve heard since suggests they would. Therefore he is the pick.

 

18.   Detroit Lions – Calijah Kancey, Defensive Tackle, Pittsburgh

I don’t love this pick, he feels small to me for a Dan Campbell guy, but they are looking for an interior penetrator and I think Kancey will land somewhere in the first round, so maybe this is the most likely spot.

 

19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Anton Harrison, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

The teens are where I expect the offensive tackles to fly off the board. The Buccs seem as though their preference is to shift all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to left tackle, which makes sense, and would allow Harrison to ease his way into the NFL on the right side. They have met with him twice in the pre-draft process.

 

20.   Seattle Seahawks – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

This pick is one of the hardest to predict in the entire round I think. I’ve had them going safety, I’ve had them going guard, but I wonder if they might spend back to back picks on the defensive front? This is the sort of range where Van Ness might come off the board and he can play inside or outside in Seattle’s scheme.

 

21.   Los Angeles Chargers – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah

This was the pick I didn’t make in version 2.0 and then most wished I had afterwards. The Chargers love big passing game targets and while I still think this is the first pick where Quinten Johnston is in-play, their depth at tight end is thinner. Kincaid would start as a rookie.

 

22.   Baltimore Ravens – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State

Joey Porter Jnr, the man whose father was an all-pro linebacker for the hated Pittsburgh Steelers in the purple and black? I think this a classic case of the Ravens waiting for the draft to come to them and taking the best football player. Marcus Peters has departed and there is a hole opposite Marlon Humphrey.

 

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

I think Minnesota would take any of the consensus top three corners if they fell to them but if they don’t maybe they’d wait on corner and consider an offensive weapon. The Vikings have met with all of the projected top receivers and are looking for a cost controlled running mate for Justin Jefferson as they prepare to make him the league’s highest paid receiver.

 

24.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama

The Jaguars will definitely attack their secondary in this draft. I have had them going corner here but I just wonder if the superior depth at corner could tempt them to wait on that spot. Conversely there is very little depth behind Brian Branch at safety and he is worthy of this selection.

 

25.   New York Giants – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland

I have been told it will definitely be a receiver or a corner for the Giants at #25 but that the front office have been “leaning towards a corner” in recent weeks. So while Quinten Johnston and Jordan Addison are definitely in play here I think Banks would be a serious consideration if he is there.

 

26.   Dallas Cowboys – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Note Dame

I had Kincaid here in version 2.0, but with the Utah standout already selected here I am leaning towards Mayer. I think it is an immediate need for the Cowboys and there is a bit of a young Jason Witten about this pick.

 

27.   Buffalo Bills – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC

I have had the Bills going receiver in all three versions. I think the alternatives are that they really like Anton Harrison or one of the defensive tackles. And if Addison is gone, that is the direction I’d seen them edging towards. However, they have met with Addison three times this spring. The interest is clear. Don’t rule out a small trade up if they think it is necessary to land him.

 

28.   Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Bresee, Defensive Tackle, Clemson

With both of the tight ends gone and five corners already selected the value that best matches up with a need for the Bengals is at defensive tackle. I think Bresee is going to sneak into the back of the first round somewhere.

 

29.   New Orleans Saints – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

The smoke seems to suggest that Murphy is going to slide towards the end of the first round. I’m not really sure why, but the Saints have met with him twice and they have a big edge need. His body type is similar to what they just lost in free agency from Marcus Davenport and Cam Jordan can’t go on forever!

 

30.   Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one.

 

31.   Kansas City Chiefs – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State

I think if there is a team likely to make a big jump up on draft night it might, for the second year running, be the Kansas City Chiefs. Offensive tackle would be their target if any of the top guys get into the 20s. If not I expect them to look for a Frank Clark replacement here. They have showed a lot of interest in McDonald who is the type of versatile player Steve Spagnuolo loves.

 

 

There we have it.... no Quinten Johnston, no Keion White and no Mazi Smith. I think those are the three guys I feel like have the best chance of landing in round 1 that are not in my 31. 

[Billz4ever]

If we are able to land Addison at 27, first, I'll be extremely happy.  Second, extremely surprised.  He's a Diggs clone if I've ever seen one and even though Diggs is good picking up extra yards, I think Addison may be even better RAC.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Billz4ever

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

If we are able to land Addison at 27, first, I'll be extremely happy.  Second, extremely surprised.  

 

Honestly I think there is a real chance the receivers slide a bit. If you'd asked me two weeks I'd have said no, but now? I think it's possible.