Kurt Warner's "Study Ball" review of Bengals game.

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I recall three checkdown attempts when the Bengals game was still in hand. Two were tipped at the line (poor OL technique), one bounced off the hands of Singletary. There's the checkdown offense everyone has been screaming about. It isn't going to be fix our problems.

 

I would like to see a little more short passing offense schemed up, especially getting guys like Cook and Hines intentionally involved as pass catchers, but Bills fans have all too quickly forgotten what happened in 2020. We spent much of that season throwing a lot of short crossing routes and hook routes to our less-than-dynamic receivers who more often than not got hit right away. We moved the ball but our receivers took a beating all year long. By the time we got to the AFCCG seemingly every starting receiver was banged up. That's what an offense full of unathletic route technicians gets you when you're relying on short passes. 

 

The Bills offense is not going to turn into a machine throwing 5 yard button routes to Diggs who immediately gets smacked in the back 10 times a game. Our offense was intentionally a downfield passing offense because it meshes with the QB and the receivers that we have. I also think Allen's elbow injury made him less accurate on shorter routes so they intentionally called less of those later in the year. Next year we need a better #2 WR and our offense as a whole needs to handle blitzes better. If everyone is running a vertical route and one of our OL gets confused, a delayed blitz is an automatic win for the defense. I'm begging Dorsey to figure out how to organically get the RBs involved in the passing game, not as checkdowns but with multiple designed targets every game. Use the offseason to figure out how to run a screen for the first time in a decade. Those are some of the ways we can get this offense humming with more consistency, not by throwing a million 5 yard curl routes.

 

 

 

There is a balance. 

There is no reason to throw a low percentage go-route into coverage downfield when you have run-after-the-catch options open on your doorstep. And yes our receivers were getting the snot beat out of them 2-seasons ago - I recall particularly in that KC game because KC's DC said lets play off their receivers and get physical with them on those hooks and short crossers you mentioned. They wanted to see if they could create turnovers, force incompletions, or get our guys a bit reluctant to run those routes knowing they could catch it, but were going to pay a price.

 

The results were mixed, but our receivers did take a pounding - particularly Diggs and Beasley.

 

The deep threat is still there and this year Allen certainly made teams pay if they did not keep safeties over the top or if someone screwed up in deep coverage. His deep shots had more anticipation and accuracy with regards to receivers being able to keep running full out to the ball. But our most consistent threat is Diggs and teams are drifting further back, rolling coverage over Diggs.

 

For this offense to hum, we do need a legit WR2 at the other boundary, a sure-handed slot option to exploit soft spots in the zones that Allen can build up a good repore with, BUT we need to get Allen to take the high-percentage checkdowns to our players who now have the right skillset to make that first guy miss, avoid a beating, and also make teams pay for not covering the flat with good RAC yards. Hines (if they retain him) and Cook should fit that mold perfectly.

2 points you made that are also spot on:

1. Poor pass-pro technique allows more DL players to time/jump/tip quick passes at the LOS. Back in the Jurassic days OL coaches would teach their OL players to load up, get their hands into the chest of the DL player, and give them a good thump/shove when they try to time their jump and get their hands up to block a pass. More often than not DL players would end up on their can.

 

Being successful at hitting the hot reads and making teams pay, requires the offensive line, Allen, and his check down options to all be on schedule and on the same page when teams are sending the extra rusher where a hot route and pass are needed. Execution and timing of all those elements has to be a hell of a lot better than we have seen this past season. Allen's off schedule preferences/tendencies (quicker decisions and passes), poorly run hot routes, and the tendency of immediate jail breaks and pressures given up by erratic protection schemes or individual execution lapses have to be corrected before we can even get to scheming these up better.

 

 

2. Your players that are your key hot read check down options have to be sure-handed pass catchers. Allen throws to Diggs because he has an amazing catch radius and hands. Nothing will give a QB the yips faster and lead him to holding the ball and poor decisions than when his hot-reads and checkdowns are dropping passes and are no longer the safety outlet he needs.


 

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

With all due respect, I believe you’re missing the point. The idea isn’t to go into the huddle with the intent of checking the ball down. The idea is for the QB to scan the field, and take the open receivers. Move the chains, and keep the drive moving. Josh failed to do that time and time again…which by the way exposes the weakness of the O Line, causing them to block longer than they have the skill set to do. 

 

He makes great points on timing the snap, and the angle of routes, losing leverage.
 

And in this game and a few others, Minnesota, Allen could have checked down faster and Dorsey could have really shortened the average depth per target by not running anything past 15 yards, running the ball or having Hines in the game instead of 4.66 Singletary. 

Maybe Allen isn’t good enough to understand what defenses are doing and play clock ball against zone coverage, and this does show that Dorsey doesn’t have a complete feel for what’s going on out there.

 

I think the Bills can do a better job of looking at the QB they have, and instead of asking him to be Chad Pennington, we could actually do something at WR past signing 200 year old Emmanuel Sanders, and declining 29-year old Jamison Crowder, and leaning on Cole Beasley for 8.9 yards/catch like 2021, and asking John Brown to come back.

 

Also Diggs is 29/30 and when does his decline start? He’s 1400 yards automatically every season from here on out? Because he doesn’t show up in some of these big games going back to 2020.

 

I’m shocked that 5’8” Isaiah McKenzie isn’t reliable, oh wait he’s been like that for 3 years now. 

 

Allen can improve the pre-snap recognition and decision making, Warner is right on that. 

 

But I think a big part of this is Brandon Beane traded for Diggs and after that he stopped trying to acquire A players on offense after that.

 

The line is weak, he’s scabbed at low end veterans for years. 

 

We have zero A+ WR athlete mismatches.

 
Our QB likes to the throw deep. Diggs is strained to have enough deep speed, Gabe has the the ability to turn on a dime the same as a runaway train, and you have Smurf’s after that. 
 

The Bills are outgunned. 

 

When a checkdown QB played a stiff defense last week, they struggled to 20 points, needing a Pat Mahomes fluke fumble. 
 

Imagine Allen with Hill and Waddle. There would be any of this check down more talk. The Bills got Diggs and haven’t added anyone significant since. That’s a big part of this. Their last organic good offensive lineman is Dion Dawkins. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

With all due respect, I believe you’re missing the point. The idea isn’t to go into the huddle with the intent of checking the ball down. The idea is for the QB to scan the field, and take the open receivers. Move the chains, and keep the drive moving. Josh failed to do that time and time again…which by the way exposes the weakness of the O Line, causing them to block longer than they have the skill set to do. 

I think we’re all saying the same thing.

 

Dorsey needs to call a more cohesive offense.

 

Greg Cosell said when he watches the Bills on offense, they run the ball as if it’s something they know they’re “supposed” to do, but with little marriage to the pass game.

Dorsey has those checkdowns and layups in the offense (contrary to what WGR has said all year), but both him and Josh push the deeper targets.

 

I’ve said all year this team plays with no tempo offensively. The Bills drain every last second off the play clock constantly before the snap. 
 

I do think the Bills are running into a talent ceiling. Maybe with more efficiency they could squeeze 1-2 more ppg out of this offense, but you need to stack talent, and they have mostly picked through Goodwill to upgrade, especially after Diggs.

 

Beane took his foot off the gas. 

I also think one more thing. When I see pictures of Allen, I think he can get into better shape. He has no muscular definition at all. I thought this about Fitzpatrick for years, could he have been a bit better if he really cut down the body fat and lifted more?

 

Obviously Allen is tighter than Fitzpatrick, but I think using this off-season to get in the best shape of his NFL career is achievable and will make him faster and protect his elbow. He can tone, because otherwise, you’re at peak Allen now; 4,200-4,400 yards, 35 TDs, 700 yards rushing. Of course that’s not an easy level to

achieve, but competition in the AFC means you live your life in the margins. 

[SoCal Deek]

9 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think we’re all saying the same thing.

 

Dorsey needs to call a more cohesive offense.

 

Greg Cosell said when he watches the Bills on offense, they run the ball as if it’s something they know they’re “supposed” to do, but with little marriage to the pass game.

Dorsey has those checkdowns and layups in the offense (contrary to what WGR has said all year), but both him and Josh push the deeper targets.

 

I’ve said all year this team plays with no tempo offensively. The Bills drain every last second off the play clock constantly before the snap. 
 

I do think the Bills are running into a talent ceiling. Maybe with more efficiency they could squeeze 1-2 more ppg out of this offense, but you need to stack talent, and they have mostly picked through Goodwill to upgrade, especially after Diggs.

 

Beane took his foot off the gas. 

I also think one more thing. When I see pictures of Allen, I think he can get into better shape. He has no muscular definition at all. I thought this about Fitzpatrick for years, could he have been a bit better if he really cut down the body fat and lifted more?

 

Obviously Allen is tighter than Fitzpatrick, but I think using this off-season to get in the best shape of his NFL career is achievable and will make him faster and protect his elbow. He can tone, because otherwise, you’re at peak Allen now; 4,200-4,400 yards, 35 TDs, 700 yards rushing. Of course that’s not an easy level to

achieve, but competition in the AFC means you live your life in the margins. 

We differ a bit. Josh had open options underneath, ant least against the Bengals anyway, including on the final interception of the game. He simply wasn’t taking them, or waiting too long to go to them, or in the case of the final drive of the first half, which would’ve kept us in the game, threw the ball badly over a wide open Singletary’s head thus killing the drive, and our chances. I’m not really sure why. 

[CincyBillsFan]

All this talk of Allen needing to read the field better and take the check down opportunities and that Dorsey needs to scheme more short passes into the game plan are failing to see the forest for the trees.  With the exception of Diggs and possibly Knox the rest of the Bills skill players are either below average (Motor, Davis, McKenzie) or still learning the game (Cook & Shakir).  Add a well below average O-line to the mix and the Bills season long offensive production is nothing short of a miracle.  And that miracle is due to Allen at QB and indicates to me that Dorsey is a better O coordinator then he's being credit for.

 

So while it's fair to criticize Allen to do so without first calling out the elephant in the room - below average talent up and down the offenses line up - is deeply misleading.  If what we've seen over the last 3 seasons is "peak" Allen then we have been blessed with a top 3 QB for the foreseeable future.  But for that to translate into deep playoff runs and Super Bowl wins the Bills MUST upgrade the talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Failure to do this will lead to further disappointing seasons. 

 

Throwing underneath the coverage to McKenzie and motor will not solve the problem here.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

37 minutes ago, NUT said:

Mahomes>Allen

 

Hard to swallow but truth. Allen didn't get it done this season ever since the BYE.

If only it were as simple as this. 

 

IMO Allen did get it done if by "getting it done" means that even when surrounded by mostly below average talent on the offense Allen led the Bills after the BYE on an 8 game winning streak, a 3rd consecutive division title, a 13 - 3 record and a playoff win.

 

I could care less whether Allen is considered better then or equal to or not as good as Mahomes.  That's just mental ***** when the talent differential between KC and Buffalo on offense is so wide.

 

I maintain that the objective evidence and the eye test indicate to me that the Bills would not have been as good as they were this year with either Mahomes or Burrow at QB.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maine-iac]

17 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

If only it were as simple as this. 

 

IMO Allen did get it done if by "getting it done" means that even when surrounded by mostly below average talent on the offense Allen led the Bills after the BYE on an 8 game winning streak, a 3rd consecutive division title, a 13 - 3 record and a playoff win.

 

I could care less whether Allen is considered better then or equal to or not as good as Mahomes.  That's just mental ***** when the talent differential between KC and Buffalo on offense is so wide.

 

I maintain that the objective evidence and the eye test indicate to me that the Bills would not have been as good as they were this year with either Mahomes or Burrow at QB.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I honestly don't see it.  Just my opinion.  Diggs and Kelce are a wash and the rest of their pass catchers vs ours are a wash.  Rb's are a wash.  The KC line is probably a little better but again we're talking about getting the ball out quicker and not holding it and making it harder on your line when teams are bringing exotic pressure.  I don't think KC's talent is SO much better than ours.  

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I honestly don't see it.  Just my opinion.  Diggs and Kelce are a wash and the rest of their pass catchers vs ours are a wash.  Rb's are a wash.  The KC line is probably a little better but again we're talking about getting the ball out quicker and not holding it and making it harder on your line when teams are bringing exotic pressure.  I don't think KC's talent is SO much better than ours.  

There's two considerations here:

 

1)  There is no doubt that KC has had better offensive talent over the last 3 seasons then Buffalo. Kelce + Hill were way better then Diggs + whoever. 

 

2)  In the last year the Chiefs O line was rated much higher than the Bills.  And that alone is probably enough to explain any difference in production and outcomes between the two offenses.  At WR and assuming Kelce cancels out Diggs the next three best players would be the Chiefs #1, #2 & #3 WR's.  And IMO saying they were better then any grouping of Davis/McKenzie/Shakir/Beasley/Brown is not a stretch.  The Chiefs #2 TE is equal to Knox  In the RB group again the eye test says that the Chiefs have a clear advantage over the Bills.  And part of this advantage was the willingness of Reid to put his faith in a 7th round rookie draft pick as his #1 guy.  And the other KC RB seems to be a much more reliable pass catcher then either of the Bills starters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maine-iac]

12 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

There's two considerations here:

 

1)  There is no doubt that KC has had better offensive talent over the last 3 seasons then Buffalo. Kelce + Hill were way better then Diggs + whoever. 

 

2)  In the last year the Chiefs O line was rated much higher than the Bills.  And that alone is probably enough to explain any difference in production and outcomes between the two offenses.  At WR and assuming Kelce cancels out Diggs the next three best players would be the Chiefs #1, #2 & #3 WR's.  And IMO saying they were better then any grouping of Davis/McKenzie/Shakir/Beasley/Brown is not a stretch.  The Chiefs #2 TE is equal to Knox  In the RB group again the eye test says that the Chiefs have a clear advantage over the Bills.  And part of this advantage was the willingness of Reid to put his faith in a 7th round rookie draft pick as his #1 guy.  And the other KC RB seems to be a much more reliable pass catcher then either of the Bills starters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hill is gone so taking that into account like I said calling Allen and Mahommes a wash, Kelce and Diggs a wash, I just don't see Gray and his 28 catches as equal to Knox.  You might get more catches from Smith and Scantling but Davis and McKenzie got 6 more TD's catching the ball.  I don't see the KC backs being any better than ours from a talent standpoint.   The line I'll give you.  Still doesn't equal their offensive talent having that wide of a gap on us.  Some solid guard play and a little more in game creativity from Dorsey/Allen I'm not at all a worried about scoring points with the Chiefs.  I still don't think the Bengals were entirely responsible for stopping us.  We just didn't answer what they were doing very well and I still don't think that was talent as much as coaching or decision making.

[Man with No Name]

21 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Benching Singletary or Cook would go over brilliantly. We were already complaining about Cook usage. In fact that is still a better complaint. 

 

I hated when they gave snaps to Moss. I can’t say anything about giving snaps to Singletary and Cook. Our offense doesn’t utilize the RB well, that goes back to Daboll. It’s not a Dorsey thing. It could be an Allen thing. I would say it’s an Allen thing. He could probably hit the RB in the flat or right in front of him every time.It’s always there when watching games back.
 

All these fans that secretly know our offensive concepts and hot calls on this board should get into coaching also. I will always blame the QB. I blame the QB for nearly everything that goes wrong with the offense. I also credit almost every time things go right. That goes for protection, everything.
 

Josh is at his absolute unstoppable best when he’s dinking and dunking. When he’s hitting the RBs out of the backfield he’s unstoppable. LBs are lost. They can’t spy him and also cover the RB. It opened up the entire offense. For whatever reason last year Josh went away from that as the season went on and decided to become Daunte Culpepper launching balls down field to Moss.

 

First thing to understand is that just because it’s taught doesn’t mean it’ll be executed. I’ve never been on a football team that didn’t teach hots and blitz beaters. There is absolutely zero chance the Bills offensive coaching staff doesn’t teach hots.

Here's what I know about Josh Allen. He is coachable. Giving information does not mean you are TEACHING it well. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

38 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Hill is gone so taking that into account like I said calling Allen and Mahommes a wash, Kelce and Diggs a wash, I just don't see Gray and his 28 catches as equal to Knox.  You might get more catches from Smith and Scantling but Davis and McKenzie got 6 more TD's catching the ball.  I don't see the KC backs being any better than ours from a talent standpoint.   The line I'll give you.  Still doesn't equal their offensive talent having that wide of a gap on us.  Some solid guard play and a little more in game creativity from Dorsey/Allen I'm not at all a worried about scoring points with the Chiefs.  I still don't think the Bengals were entirely responsible for stopping us.  We just didn't answer what they were doing very well and I still don't think that was talent as much as coaching or decision making.

I don’t think the Bills have much top end talent past Allen. 
 

There isn’t much in the way of elite traits.

 

LT - Dion Dawkins 2nd Round, good

LG - Saffold at 34 years old, shouldn’t be back

C - Morse solid on the move, but lacks anchor

RG - Bates is undrafted, decent player 

RT - Brown is a 3rd Rounder, he’s been  meh to okay? 

TE - Knox is a 3rd Rounder, Top 15 

TE #2 - Quintin Morris is undrafted and not a long term factor 

 

WR #1 - Diggs, a top 6 NFL WR in the latter part of his prime, route runner 

WR #2 - Davis, a go route runner, 4th Rounder, runs a 4.54 40.

WR #3 - McKenzie, 5th Rounder, can’t be a full time player

WR #4 - Shakir, 5th Rounder, looks good in limited opportunity, but he felt like an afterthought with this coaching staff.

 

WR #5, #6 - Not worth talking about, a collection of UFAs and old guys

 

RB #1 - Devin Singletary, 3rd Rounder, solid, but forever unspectacular, 4.66 40

 

RB #2 - Cook, 2nd Rounder who looked pretty explosive, but will this coaching staff make him the feature back? Not used in the pass game.

 

RB #3 - Hines, Beane brought him up twice in the season ending press conference, and I can see where McDermott and him will go back and forth about his usage. The guy touched the ball 13 total times on offense since the November 6th trade. 

 

There isn’t any first round investment around Josh Allen. 
 

No take the top off kind of players, not one good/great offensive lineman since Dawkins.

 

Beane got Diggs in 2020 and stopped

investing in elite offense pieces, instead focusing all assets on defense. He took his foot off the gas because he thought we were all set and it’s plateaued the team. 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

27 minutes ago, Man with No Name said:

Here's what I know about Josh Allen. He is coachable. Giving information does not mean you are TEACHING it well. 

I get all that. It’s a pointless debate because if Josh doesn’t play more situational football then coaches will start getting fired. So it doesn’t matter who’s at fault.

One way of forcing Josh into situational football is designing and calling plays that get the ball out of his hands quickly and into the hands of playmakers. More screens and slants. 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BarleyNY]

On 2/4/2023 at 4:42 PM, Maine-iac said:

Lots of interesting stuff here.  I don't always agree with everything that comes from Warner but this looks pretty straight forward.  The ball needed to come out quicker and the short passing game needs much better execution.  Looked like a lot of plays were there.  I don't think the Bengal's defense was too much we just didn't execute well. That's just my take.  

 

 

That was a really good watch. Thanks.