Your Gut Instinct: Are Beane/McDermott On Track to Win Championship(s) or Wasting J. Allen's talent?

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

Tomlin, Harbaugh and Carroll all did this early in their tenures. They have been resting on those laurels a long time. 

It's not going to be exactly the same because history doesn't repeat itself but if often rhymes.  Point is they're solid head coaches with an elite QB who work for a steady and competent GM with an owner that doesn't meddle.  They've punched a lot of lottery tickets (playoffs) over their careers.

[Bills!Win!]

The bills are really following in the steps of the early 2000s colts and Peyton manning. In that time when the bills were very average, come playoff time I’d find myself rooting for the colts. They has bill polian and the patriots were their nemesis. No matter how many 12-4, 13-3 or 14-2 season they had they’d always come up short against the jets, chargers, Steelers and especially patriots. 
 

I believe the bills will win 1 Super Bowl and probably lose 1 in Allen’s time here. When he retires we will be thinking of how many chances we blew. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Bills!Win!

[BuffaL0L0k0]

On 2/4/2023 at 10:52 AM, Chaos said:

You do understand Elway needed a HC change before he won it all? Or don't you know things?

Denver's timeline is showing ONE factor with HC change, but there are many other factors involved, one of them

was acquiring a stud RB (and , BTW, the last RB to earn an mvp in Super Sunday, to date) named Terrell Davis...

[Chaos]

9 minutes ago, BuffaL0L0k0 said:

Denver's timeline is showing ONE factor with HC change, but there are many other factors involved, one of them

was acquiring a stud RB (and , BTW, the last RB to earn an mvp in Super Sunday, to date) named Terrell Davis...

Reeves wasted nine years of Elways career (if winning super bowls is the goal).  Broncos hurt themselves hanging on to him for far to long.  As an aside Shanahans innovative zone blocking scheme (a coaching concept) allowed Davis to excel the way he did. 

[Nihilarian]

11 hours ago, Billever76 said:

Other teams build superbowl teams in half the time McDermott and this staff have been here...we are going on yr 7 now of this regime...we are no closer now than we were 3 yrs ago!....you can continue to hang your hat on a coaching staff who without josh allen would have this team around a 7-10 record at best!...everyone holds this staff so high bc they accredit the drought being broke to them...thing is the turnaround of this franchise is bc of Josh Allen and diggs...these coaches have held him back from reaching his peak with their outdated approach to the modern nfl

And who masterfully traded up to the #7 spot in the 2018 draft to draft Josh Allen? The very best player in the 2018 NFL draft! And who masterfully traded away a #1 pick to obtain WR Stephon Diggs... when the Vikings said they wouldn't trade him?

 

This franchise had the #1 overall defense last season and its been pretty darn good since McD got to Buffalo. #2 in points allowed in 2019, #3 in yards allowed. #2 in points allowed, #6 in yards allowed this season... even with all the adversity!

 

Exactly how many teams have managed to beat the KC Chiefs the last few years? The very best team in the NFL the last few seasons. You know, the team that won the SB in 2019, that went back to the SB in 2020 and is again in the SB this season! Yeah, that's right Buffalo beat them 2x in the regular season in 2021, 2022. 

 

This HC went to the playoffs with TYROD TAYLOR at QB! Anyone else do that with that QB? So, don't tell me that this would be a 7-10 team without Josh Allen! YES, they lean and depend on him more than they should. Former Bills OC Brian Daboll put a saddle on Josh and rode him to being the New HC of the NY Giants. Looks like new Buffalo OC Ken Dorsey is attempting to do the very same thing. 

 

Any team going 13-3 with all the adversity this team faced this season was doing something right. The #2 offense in points scored, the #2 offense in yards...that is better than most years with Daboll and equaled his best season as Buffalo OC in 2020. The defense #2 in points allowed, #6 in yards allowed after so many devastating injuries to the starters would decimate other teams. 

 

Yes, the 2022 Buffalo Bills were SMOKED by the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 in a playoff game IN Buffalo. Trust me, I'm not at all happy about it either! the Bengals also knocked off the KC Chiefs in their home in the AFC Championship game last season to go to the SB. Lost this season to the Chiefs in the Championship game. 

 

This happens to be super ELITE talented teams that the Buffalo Bills have faced in the playoffs, (save Texans with Watson in 2019). KC in 2020, KC in 2021, Cincy in 2022. 

 

What team built their SB team in half the time as the Chiefs took 7 years under Reid to get to the big dance. The Bengals went 2-14 in 2019 under new HC Zac Taylor. They went 4-11 in 2020 and drafted Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins #1 overall, #33. Then drafted Ja'Marr Chase in 2021. So they went to the SB in four years under Taylor because of their previous crappy season records. Buffalo managed to build their team drafting near last every year. 

 

The Bucs did it with the GOAT in 2020 and what happened this season 8-9? The Rams went to the SB in McVay's 2nd year and won the SB in McVay's 5th season by going all out for talent as they gave up a #2 pick to Denver for Von Miller. Buffalo gave up no draft picks for him. Philly had just won a SB in 2017 and had been in the playoffs recently 2018, 2019, 2021 and pulled a Rams this season by going after some highly touted veterans, 13 free agents signed from other teams including Suh, Reddick.

 

In 2022, My take is the Buffalo Bills desperately needed that bye week badly and didn't get it. They were emotionally spent after seeing a fellow player fall on the field from a heart attack (among other things). The Bengals showed the Bills their flaws in being dominated on both sides of the line along with little or no pass rush. Josh had no time to throw and with no run game or attempt to build a run attack it put everything on Josh. Let's face it, the Bengals out played and out coached the Buffalo Bills this game.

 

For myself, I have faith that this GM, HC with figure things out for the 2023 season, get the coaches, players focused and on the right track for a SB run.  

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Chaos said:

Reeves wasted nine years of Elways career (if winning super bowls is the goal).  Broncos hurt themselves hanging on to him for far to long.  As an aside Shanahans innovative zone blocking scheme (a coaching concept) allowed Davis to excel the way he did. 

 

So I have a question... McDermott has basically had 3 years of elite QB play - 2020, 2021 and 2022 - and hasn't gotten it done. Josh wasn't elite in 2019. He was decent, but not Suprerbowl winning calibre. 

 

Let's say you are Pegula, you fire McDermott and you hire coach X. If Coach X hasn't got it done in 3 years are you firing him too? Are you just gonna give each guy 3 years of Josh's career in the hope eventually one gets you a Superbowl? 

 

I am not fishing it is a genuine question. 

[davefan66]

I believe in Beane and McD.

 

I need to see what Beane does this off-season though. Will he be able to fill holes and keep players we need?  Will he draft a few starters in key positions, and add quality depth?  Can he hit on a few FA’s that are cap friendly?  Will he “mortgage” the future, or manage the cap without causing future problems?

 

If he can score a WR2, interior Oline, Dback depth and either resign Edmunds or replace him with a good player and I think we would be set for next year. Big shopping list, but let’s see what Beane can do.

 

 

[SoTier]

Of all the crappy polls ever posted on this MB, this one has got to be one of the very worst.   The OP might have tried to have at least one realistic alternative choice.  My "gut feeling" is that the poll deserves at least five thumbs down ...         

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I have a question... McDermott has basically had 3 years of elite QB play - 2020, 2021 and 2022 - and hasn't gotten it done. Josh wasn't elite in 2019. He was decent, but not Suprerbowl winning calibre. 

 

Let's say you are Pegula, you fire McDermott and you hire coach X. If Coach X hasn't got it done in 3 years are you firing him too? Are you just gonna give each guy 3 years of Josh's career in the hope eventually one gets you a Superbowl? 

 

I am not fishing it is a genuine question. 

McDermott will have had 7 years as a coach by the end of this year, not three. If he can't advance past the divisional round again in his 7th season, it is reasonable to make an assessment of what he is likely to achieve with the Bills. I would expect to make the divisional round of the playoffs in the first year with the next coach.  If we failed to make the playoffs, he would likely be one and done. My baseline would be to make the divisional round of the playoffs, and show progress towards winning an AFC Championship in the first three years. And if progress is made I would expect a fourth season. If Allen plays at an elite level through McDermott Season 7 and four seasons of a new coach without an AFC championship, I would publicly apologize too him for wasting his time, and work with him to land with a new team, and hopefully get a trove of draft picks to start over again.  A lot of ifs in there. 

5 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Of all the crappy polls ever posted on this MB, this one has got to be one of the very worst.   The OP might have tried to have at least one realistic alternative choice.  My "gut feeling" is that the poll deserves at least five thumbs down ...         

250 votes, over 200 replies (yours is the only truly useless one), over 5 thousand views.  it has a pretty high level of engagement.  I can't help it that you are not able to understand the question. 

[Gregg]

They are weak up front especially on the OL. They suck in short yardage situations. Allen is their most dangerous threat running the ball. That is not a good look when your QB is your main threat running. Allen is constantly under pressure and lucky for him he can avoid the rush very well. Otherwise, he would be getting killed out there. Defensively they couldn't rush the QB after Von went down. They are inconsistent when it comes to stopping the run. Beane needs to build the lines especially on offense. I would even go with the same receiving group and RB's if we had better lines. Why would you build a finesse football team who has to play in WNY in the elements? That is what the Bills are a finesse football team. 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Gregg said:

They are weak up front especially on the OL. They suck in short yardage situations. Allen is their most dangerous threat running the ball. That is not a good look when your QB is your main threat running. Allen is constantly under pressure and lucky for him he can avoid the rush very well. Otherwise, he would be getting killed out there. Defensively they couldn't rush the QB after Von went down. They are inconsistent when it comes to stopping the run. Beane needs to build the lines especially on offense. I would even go with the same receiving group and RB's if we had better lines. Why would you build a finesse football team who has to play in WNY in the elements? That is what the Bills are a finesse football team. 

Your complaint about the lines is, of course, correct, but there aren't enough resources to rebuild both. I say concentrate on the oline. Also, no way I am satisfied with a receiving group that had to bring in Brown and Beasely. You need an upgrade at WR2 (Davis is fine as a #3 option,) a better blocking TE#2, and a bruiser RB to compliment Cook. That's where the resources should go. Let the defensive HC coach up the D with the best we can do after we address the offense as priority #1.

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Chaos said:

McDermott will have had 7 years as a coach by the end of this year, not three. If he can't advance past the divisional round again in his 7th season, it is reasonable to make an assessment of what he is likely to achieve with the Bills. I would expect to make the divisional round of the playoffs in the first year with the next coach.  If we failed to make the playoffs, he would likely be one and done. My baseline would be to make the divisional round of the playoffs, and show progress towards winning an AFC Championship in the first three years. And if progress is made I would expect a fourth season. If Allen plays at an elite level through McDermott Season 7 and four seasons of a new coach without an AFC championship, I would publicly apologize too him for wasting his time, and work with him to land with a new team, and hopefully get a trove of draft picks to start over again.  A lot of ifs in there. 

 

 

Your concern though, so far as I understand it, is that we might waste Josh Allen. That is a fair concern. But in that context I don't think 2017-19 are years of concern. Against that metric we should be concerned with how far have we gone with elite level Josh in 2020-22. 

 

My understanding is your ideal scenario (while you recognise it isn't happening) is a coaching change now. Which essentially says McDermott has had 3 goes with an elite QB, 1 AFCCG and two Divisional Round exits he is out. 

 

So what if the next guy manages the same in his 3 years? Does the order matter? If he went divisional, divisional, AFCCG would he get year 4? But not the other way around presumably?

 

It took Shanahan 3 years after inheriting Elway (and he missed the playoffs entirely year 1). Took Dungy 5 years after inheriting Manning (I use those two examples because they are more akin to what we have here inheriting elite QBs with miles left on the clock rather than the Gruden / Kubiak examples where it was like a final 1 year roll of the dice without elite QB play and then years of suckitude after). I just think that level of impatience is a risk. 

 

There will come a point when McDermott runs out of chances. Maybe its next year, maybe its the year after, maybe it never happens and he wins one. But even if McDermott goes after next year I'd want to give the guy that follows a proper shot at it too and not just 3 strikes and you're out. 

 

And I certainly wouldn't say you have been elite for 6 and or 7 years (3 under McDermott and 3/4 under his successor) and we haven't won a Superbowl so there you go Josh I'll trade you away. Where is the logic in that? How does that help the Bills to win?

Edited February 6, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Dr. Who]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Your concern though, so far as I understand it, is that we might waste Josh Allen. That is a fair concern. But in that context I don't think 2017-19 are years of concern. Against that metric we should be concerned with how far have we gone with elite level Josh in 2020-22. 

 

My understanding is your ideal scenario (while you recognise it isn't happening) is a coaching change now. Which essentially says McDermott has had 3 goes with an elite QB, 1 AFCCG and two Divisional Round exits he is out. 

 

So what if the next guy manages the same in his 3 years? Does the order matter? If he went divisional, divisional, AFCCG would he get year 4? But not the other way around presumably?

 

It took Shanahan 3 years after inheriting Elway (and he missed the playoffs entirely year 1). Took Dungy 5 years after inheriting Manning (I use those two examples because they are more akin to what we have here inheriting elite QBs with miles left on the clock rather than the Gruden / Kubiak examples where it was like a final 1 year roll of the dice without elite QB play and then years of suckitude after). I just think that level of impatience is a risk. 

 

There will come a point when McDermott runs out of chances. Maybe its next year, maybe its the year after, maybe it never happens and he wins one. But even if McDermott goes after next year I'd want to give the guy that follows a proper shot at it too and not just 3 strikes and you're out. 

 

And I certainly wouldn't say you have been elite for 6 and or 7 years (3 under McDermott and 3/4 under his successor) and we haven't won a Superbowl so there you go Josh I'll trade you away. Where is the logic in that? How does that help the Bills to win?

I appreciate the exasperation of the OP, but your analysis here is impeccable. The clock with developed franchise qb does not start with rookie Josh.

[QCity]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I have a question... McDermott has basically had 3 years of elite QB play - 2020, 2021 and 2022 - and hasn't gotten it done. Josh wasn't elite in 2019. He was decent, but not Suprerbowl winning calibre. 

 

Let's say you are Pegula, you fire McDermott and you hire coach X. If Coach X hasn't got it done in 3 years are you firing him too? Are you just gonna give each guy 3 years of Josh's career in the hope eventually one gets you a Superbowl? 

 

I am not fishing it is a genuine question. 

 

I say this fully aware that McD and Beane aren't going anywhere as long as Allen is under center.

 

The dream scenario is to hire an offensive-minded head coach that will work with Allen for the rest of his career. When you have an elite QB you are going to be burning through offensive coordinators every ~3 years, so in a way we are already in the scenario you described. Allen will likely go through 4+ coordinators in his career. We are already in an evaluation period for Dorsey. I know what the offensive numbers are. Did we hit those because of Dorsey's gameplanning and scheming, or was it all Allen? I would certainly say the latter after year 1. Taylor/Burrow and Reid/Mahomes are at a huge advantage from a continuity standpoint.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, QCity said:

 

I say this fully aware that McD and Beane aren't going anywhere as long as Allen is under center.

 

The dream scenario is to hire an offensive-minded head coach that will work with Allen for the rest of his career. When you have an elite QB you are going to be burning through offensive coordinators every ~3 years, so in a way we are already in the scenario you described. Allen will likely go through 4+ coordinators in his career. We are already in an evaluation period for Dorsey. I know what the offensive numbers are. Did we hit those because of Dorsey's gameplanning and scheming, or was it all Allen? I would certainly say the latter after year 1. Taylor/Burrow and Reid/Mahomes are at a huge advantage from a continuity standpoint.

 

 

Taylor isn't the play caller and has only briefly called plays once in his career as interim OC for the Dolphins in 2015 under Dan Campbell. I don't know how much input he has into offensive scheme and planning in Cincinnati but if Brian Callahan gets hired away I think they will be in the same boat of cycling coordinators. Sure, Reid is a different case, it is HIS offense. Not sure that is the case with Taylor. 

[QCity]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Taylor isn't the play caller and has only briefly called plays once in his career as interim OC for the Dolphins in 2015 under Dan Campbell. I don't know how much input he has into offensive scheme and planning in Cincinnati but if Brian Callahan gets hired away I think they will be in the same boat of cycling coordinators. Sure, Reid is a different case, it is HIS offense. Not sure that is the case with Taylor. 

 

The larger point I was making remains.

[Gregg]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I have a question... McDermott has basically had 3 years of elite QB play - 2020, 2021 and 2022 - and hasn't gotten it done. Josh wasn't elite in 2019. He was decent, but not Suprerbowl winning calibre. 

 

Let's say you are Pegula, you fire McDermott and you hire coach X. If Coach X hasn't got it done in 3 years are you firing him too? Are you just gonna give each guy 3 years of Josh's career in the hope eventually one gets you a Superbowl? 

 

I am not fishing it is a genuine question. 

 

5 playoff appearances in 6 years. Three straight division titles. McBean isn't getting fired. I do hope they move on from Frazier. The only way I would consider getting rid of McDermott would be if Bill and the Pats decided to part ways. In that scenario I would offer Bill a blank check and give him total control of the organization. Bill won six Super Bowls with an elite level franchise QB. He would definitely win with Josh. Since that has no chance of happening, we have to hope McBean figures it out. It's not like our (fans) opinion means anything. Only Terry can make real changes and I doubt he is going to right now.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

250 votes, over 200 replies (yours is the only truly useless one), over 5 thousand views.  it has a pretty high level of engagement.  I can't help it that you are not able to understand the question. 

 

You obviously don't like hearing opinions that don't agree with your own because you created a poll intended to solicit anti-Beane/McDermott responses by providing 2 anti-Beane/McDermott responses and 2 totally unrealistic alternative choices that discouraged responses to your anti-Beane/McDermott choices.   That's the ultimate in a useless poll. 

 

52 minutes ago, Gregg said:

They are weak up front especially on the OL. They suck in short yardage situations. Allen is their most dangerous threat running the ball. That is not a good look when your QB is your main threat running. Allen is constantly under pressure and lucky for him he can avoid the rush very well. Otherwise, he would be getting killed out there. Defensively they couldn't rush the QB after Von went down. They are inconsistent when it comes to stopping the run. Beane needs to build the lines especially on offense. I would even go with the same receiving group and RB's if we had better lines. Why would you build a finesse football team who has to play in WNY in the elements? That is what the Bills are a finesse football team. 

 

Exactly.  While coaching is frequently a difference maker in today's NFL, there's a limit to how much good/great coaching can make up for a lack of talent.  That the Bills lack OL talent has really been exposed this past season, and especially in the playoffs.   How much the Bills missed Von Miller on the defensive line was exposed in the playoffs, too.  It was clear to me even before the first Cinci game that the Bills couldn't run with the Bengals and Chiefs just based on talent, some of it because of injury, possibly because of lack of experience, but a lot of it because some of the linemen, especially on offense, just aren't good enough.   An improved OL will improve the offense far more (and more quickly) than just about any other change.

[Billsfan1972]

22 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

5 playoff appearances in 6 years. Three straight division titles. McBean isn't getting fired. I do hope they move on from Frazier. The only way I would consider getting rid of McDermott would be if Bill and the Pats decided to part ways. In that scenario I would offer Bill a blank check and give him total control of the organization. Bill won six Super Bowls with an elite level franchise QB. He would definitely win with Josh. Since that has no chance of happening, we have to hope McBean figures it out. It's not like our (fans) opinion means anything. Only Terry can make real changes and I doubt he is going to right now.

I vomited at the thought of Bill as the HC!!!

 

McD isn't getting fired.  Only hope is that he and Pegula get into a huge fight over philosophy.

 

I will be over the moon if the Bills win the SB next year with McD/Frazier/Dorsey et al. 

 

Go on all you want about the regular season, however with Allen, the results sorry are a given +- 1 to 2 games.

 

This is Allen's team that will go as far as he takes them. 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I vomited at the thought of Bill as the HC!!!

 

McD isn't getting fired.  Only hope is that he and Pegula get into a huge fight over philosophy.

 

I will be over the moon if the Bills win the SB next year with McD/Frazier/Dorsey et al. 

 

Go on all you want about the regular season, however with Allen, the results sorry are a given +- 1 to 2 games.

 

This is Allen's team that will go as far as he takes them. 

 

I would love to see Bill coaching this team. Six Super Bowls with a franchise QB. It's not going to happen of course, but he would bring a Lombardi to Buffalo with Allen as the QB. I would rather see that then McClappy talking about process and Frazier's D leading to another disappointing playoff exit.