Your Gut Instinct: Are Beane/McDermott On Track to Win Championship(s) or Wasting J. Allen's talent?

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

I don’t think this is a fair analogy.  Home runs is one small simple thing.   Playing qb is completely different, the qb is more than anything the position most responsible for team success in any sport.   Allen leads the league in air yards and turnovers and at the bottom in RAC.  Placement pace and taking the easy options can improve those things.  I know it’s not cool to suggest Allen should improve in some areas but I feel that way. I also think he is the greatest thing that has happened to this franchise in a generation.  I just think there is something to the thought that Allen tries to do too much too often.  He does not need to.  Maybe the right personality at coordinator would be able to influence that.  

Allen leads the league in TO's because he fumbles the ball.  Allen only had TWO more INT's then Mahomes & Burrow.  TWO over 16 games!  That's a rounding error.

 

And Allen loses more fumbles then Mahome & Burrow because he runs the ball a lot more.  Allen also has to deal with a bad O line where he's often under immediate pressure when he drops back to throw. Immediate pressure leads to fumbles as he navigates looking downfield to make a throw or is blown up from behind. 

 

And blaming Allen for the poor RAC (or YAC) based on ball placement is just plain wrong.  This criticism was used back in 2019/20 as Allen was bursting onto the scene as a way to take shots at the guy.  But anyone who has actually watched the Bills play knows that Allen has fine ball placement.  The reality is that most of the Bills skill players are not very fast and are unable to make defenders miss.  They also do a piss poor job of breaking tackles. 

 

My experience is that Allen will place a ball perfectly, the ball is caught and the Bills player immediately tackled for a 4 yard gain.  Rinse and repeat over and over and over again. There is almost never any real separation and we all jump up and shout hallelujah on those rare instances when a guy actually outruns a defender or breaks their tackle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DCofNC]

23 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Moments after the Bengals game ended, I said changes are needed, but will not happen.

 

And now that's official.  We are headed for a minor regression next year--we'll be good, we'll win a lot of games, we'll kick the crap out of some 4 win team early in the year...but we'll bow out of the playoffs at the same spot or earlier next season...and our record will be a few losses greater next season.

 

And another year of Josh's career will be gone. And the heat will grow.

We'll probably see the coordinator changes NEXT season....and then more kool aid drinkers will start to think "Maybe it really is McDermott!"

 

It's tough going into an entire season thinking "there's not much to see here."

 

The upward trajectory this franchise has had for several years now is gone.

 

 

Some of us knew that was crap from the beginning.

 

🤷‍♂️

Exactly.  I carry zero hope into next year.  I won’t be surprised to miss the playoffs.

[Nextmanup]

41 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Not even making it to the AFCCG the last two seasons is a bad look for BB & McD….but I guess as long as Allen can make them look good by qualifying for the playoffs, that all is well at OBD. 
 

When Allen is 30, and they still haven’t won a SB, the same people will be coming here making excuses and proclaiming that all is still well at OBD. 

Those are the same people who were telling us things were going well when Russ Brandon was the frigging GM of the team!  They will ALWAYS tell you things are going well.

And then when we get our butts kicked in a divisional round playoff game--they disappear! 

 

I'm still laughing at some of the users who have not shown their faces here since the Bengals game!

 

Maybe they were traumatized?

 

Think of some of the biggest posters here, who post about 100 times a day....where are they now?

 

 

[Billever76]

9 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Bills fans have have recently shown me that most have no patience for building a SB team. Todays society wants instant gratification...like a drive up window type service. They see other teams like the Rams & Bucs build it quick and win it all and want the same. They are anomalies and not the norm!

 

 

THE most successful NFL franchise the last 15-20 years has been our hated enemy the New England Patriots. The current had the NFLs best HC and HAD the NFL's GOAT at QB. Since losing Brady they haven't won much since and he won a SB with the Bucs.

 

Second best team has been the Kansas City Chiefs, 162 games, 117 wins, 45 losses. Their HC Andy Reid had built a playoff team in his first season going from a 2-14 season without to an 11-5 with. Let's face it, the man knew who to hire as his assistant coaches and how to build a disciplined team. He managed that with QB Alex Smith.(who Buffalo also went after at the time). Reid realized that Smith was just a game manager and wasn't going to get him to the big dance. 

 

Hence he traded up with Buffalo to get Patrick Mahomes, a player that wasn't graded very highly and was from an "air raid" scheme. Mahomes was like 4th rated behind Trubisky, Kizer, Watson. You know who was rated 6th, Nathan Peterman.

 

It took SEVEN years for Reid to take his KC Chiefs to the SB and this was with an experienced HC who was a 14 year winning HC with the Philadelphia Eagles. In which it took him SIX years to get his Eagles into a SB with McNabb at QB... they lost to NE 21-24 in 2004. (You know who his ST's coach was that season?)

 

Reid is basically an offensive genius with currently one of the best young QB's in the league.  It takes time and some good fortune to get a team to the SB.

 

Bills fans forget that this is Brandon Beane's, McD's first time at GM, HC and they are still learning as they go. 

 

Hopefully now they have learned that they need a much, much better offensive line and a better pass rush. More than one top pass rusher too. (Probably should have found a way to keep Jerry Hughes) I have faith that these men can get the job done for the Buffalo Bills. 

 

13-3 with all the freakin adversity that this team faced this season is nothing short of brilliant IMHO. Injuries, sickness, snowstorms, blizzards a home game in a different city. A HEART ATTACK on the field during a game and the HC knew the right thing to do. These are some great men this franchise has running it and Bills fans should just stop with all this negative crap! 

Other teams build superbowl teams in half the time McDermott and this staff have been here...we are going on yr 7 now of this regime...we are no closer now than we were 3 yrs ago!....you can continue to hang your hat on a coaching staff who without josh allen would have this team around a 7-10 record at best!...everyone holds this staff so high bc they accredit the drought being broke to them...thing is the turnaround of this franchise is bc of Josh Allen and diggs...these coaches have held him back from reaching his peak with their outdated approach to the modern nfl

[PBF81]

45 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Remember we are told that the Bills were 13-3 this year.  It is the one defense heard over and over.  

 

This is a fan board and the many here look to McD as a messiah, who turned around a 2-14 team and made them into a juggernaut.

 

I say over and over he took over a team that yes I guess had issues and salary cap problems, but were in the playoff hunt in 2016 and lost in OT week 16.

 

McD took that team (a meaningless loss in week 17) and went from 7-9 to 9-7 and a Dalton miracle to the playoffs. 

 

Then they drafted Allen and decided to tear down the offense even more the following year and named NATAN PETERMAN the starter, when they had the #7 pick that needed to  be fast-tracked or mentored by a veteran early in the season.  They went 6-10.

 

Now 4 straight playoffs, but all ended badly (and three pointing the finger at coaching).     

 

 

And I have to again point out how this coaching staff coddled and stunted Allen.  

 

300 yards passing is generally used as a starting point with QB's.  It took Allen 28 starts to pass that # (part of McD's incredible 42 game stretch).

 

A look at his peers.

 

Burrow - 300 yards game 2 and 5X's in 10 games for a putrid Cincy team his rookie season

Mahomes - First game 284, 300 third game (and scary how easy thereafter).

Rodgers - Third game (yes I know on the bench behind Favre, not Peterman).

Lawrence - Game 1!!!!

Pickett - Game 1 (had to throw him in as it was vs. the Bills)🤣.

Jackson - Game 8

Herbert - Game 1!!!

Prescott - Game 9, however 8-1 and every game prior 227-290 yards

 

Great post, and I would add this in relation to a few of your comments ... 

 

"This is a fan board and the many here look to McD as a messiah,..." 

 

It is a fan board, and fans otherwise in general.  Nice guys are liked, McD's a nice guy.  Levy was incredibly well liked, but he did nothing as a HC prior to coming here, in fact, I have no idea why Polian selected him of all possibilities.  He was a sub-.500 coach (31-42, .425) with KC prior to coming to Buffalo, and with ZERO significant NFL coaching otherwise.  He stayed, not because he could get us a championship, but because he was a great guy, and he was.  

 

But sometimes that's the "tough decision," to get rid of the nice guy that can't get it done, or perhaps relegate him to another role, which is unheard of in the NFL.  For example, put McD at DC and bring in an offensive-minded HC.  Hell, give McD the same money he's making now.  I've never understood the bickering over paying a HC up to $10M when he's the one that decides the direction that your team is going, and when numerous players make more than that.  

 

Anyway, most coaches wouldn't accept that on pride alone, but that's what needs to be done here, it's pretty clear.  It won't happen for that reason tho, until Allen's spent, and then we get the next "QB quest" with coaches "that aren't as good as McD," ... and we'll wonder why not.  LOL  

 

"McD took that team (a meaningless loss in week 17) and went from 7-9 to 9-7 and a Dalton miracle to the playoffs."  

 

It's quite clear that this team is no better than the average 6.6 win teams we had since our last playoff appearance and prior to McD getting here, without Allen.  Take him out of the mix and you don't even have an average team.   Beane's done nothing significant on his watch, another issue similar in nature.  

 

Allen does everything.  He has half of our rushing TDs.  Imagine Keenum or Barkley running this offense.  What, 7-10, tops?  

 

How many times has the running game powered this team to a win over a team with a good defense?  

How many times has the defense powered this team to a win over a team with a good offense?  

 

I'm sure that there's an exception or two, but it doesn't happen for the most part.  Allen has to do everything, and it's pretty clear that the coaches don't challenge him on his risks because they know he's carrying their water.  

 

"And I have to again point out how this coaching staff coddled and stunted Allen.  

300 yards passing is generally used as a starting point with QB's.  It took Allen 28 starts to pass that # (part of McD's incredible 42 game stretch)."  

 

Here's my take on that.  All of the QBs that you named had prolific success in college football.  Allen did not.  Allen posted a mere two 300-yard games at Wyoming, and only three more over 250, and none were against teams that ever challenge for an NCAA title.  Allen went up largely against non-NFL bound competitiont, whereas the others you named did not, they regularly played against players that are now in the NFL.  Rodgers probably comes closest to Allen.  

 

Mahomes was probably the most prolific, 22 of his 32 games were over 300, five were over 500, 11 over 400.  I was surprised that he wasn't among the first few picks and I recall wondering why everyone thought that Trubisky was so good as to be 2nd overall.  Then again it was Chicago.  

 

Anyway, I'm surprised that Allen's done what he's done.  He's very bright and I give him the credit for his own development, which fuels your argument that with better coaching he'd be much better.  Obviously I agree.  

 

He may have come up to speed faster with better coaching, but I never would have expected him to come up like the others given that his learning-curve in that way was far steeper.  Look at Picket for example, in his Sr. season he had 11 of 13 games over 250, 8 of 13 over 300, 3 over 400, and 1 over 500.  In Allen's Jr. season, his last at Wyoming, he had 1 game over 234 yards, 328 and 2 TDs against Gardner-Webb.  Even his Sophomore season, only 1 game over 300, against UNLV.  

 

His development IMO, which agreed, could have been faster and better, has been nothing short of remarkable otherwise.  

 

We knew that Burrow was going to be good just watching him dismantle Clemson and their 3rd-ranked scoring D in the NC game.  Similar for Lawrence, who also came out as a Jr.  But Allen never had the chance to develop against that level of competition.  It's incredibly rare for a QB to learn to do that in the NFL.  

 

[Utah John]

McBeane have built one of the best regular-season teams in the NFL.  They should routinely rack up 10-12 win seasons, and go x-1 in the playoffs.  x being 0 or 1 or 2  I don't see them going x-0

 

The Bills have a system and they stick to it.  It's too predictable for the coordinators on good teams not to be able to figure out ways to attack it.  

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Utah John said:

McBeane have built one of the best regular-season teams in the NFL.  They should routinely rack up 10-12 win seasons, and go x-1 in the playoffs.  x being 0 or 1 or 2  I don't see them going x-0

 

The Bills have a system and they stick to it.  It's too predictable for the coordinators on good teams not to be able to figure out ways to attack it.  

All very true. So the question is if we all know that, why don’t the Bills coaches? The performance against the Bengals was unworthy on all levels. When a player has a sub par game, it’s clear someone had a bad day, or is injured…it happens. When EVERYONE underperforms, I blame the coaches. 

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

All very true. So the question is if we all know that, why don’t the Bills coaches? The performance against the Bengals was unworthy on all levels. When a player has a sub par game, it’s clear someone had a bad day, or is injured…it happens. When EVERYONE underperforms, I blame the coaches. 

 

Can't see the forest for the trees thing I suppose.  Good question.  A refusal to want to make the tough decisions for one or more reasons likely being the reason why nothing changes.  That's when ownership needs to step in, but Kim is who-knows-where and Terry doesn't seem to have the gumption.  

[Billsfan1972]

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Great post, and I would add this in relation to a few of your comments ... 

 

"This is a fan board and the many here look to McD as a messiah,..." 

 

It is a fan board, and fans otherwise in general.  Nice guys are liked, McD's a nice guy.  Levy was incredibly well liked, but he did nothing as a HC prior to coming here, in fact, I have no idea why Polian selected him of all possibilities.  He was a sub-.500 coach (31-42, .425) with KC prior to coming to Buffalo, and with ZERO significant NFL coaching otherwise.  He stayed, not because he could get us a championship, but because he was a great guy, and he was.  

 

But sometimes that's the "tough decision," to get rid of the nice guy that can't get it done, or perhaps relegate him to another role, which is unheard of in the NFL.  For example, put McD at DC and bring in an offensive-minded HC.  Hell, give McD the same money he's making now.  I've never understood the bickering over paying a HC up to $10M when he's the one that decides the direction that your team is going, and when numerous players make more than that.  

 

Anyway, most coaches wouldn't accept that on pride alone, but that's what needs to be done here, it's pretty clear.  It won't happen for that reason tho, until Allen's spent, and then we get the next "QB quest" with coaches "that aren't as good as McD," ... and we'll wonder why not.  LOL  

 

"McD took that team (a meaningless loss in week 17) and went from 7-9 to 9-7 and a Dalton miracle to the playoffs."  

 

It's quite clear that this team is no better than the average 6.6 win teams we had since our last playoff appearance and prior to McD getting here, without Allen.  Take him out of the mix and you don't even have an average team.   Beane's done nothing significant on his watch, another issue similar in nature.  

 

Allen does everything.  He has half of our rushing TDs.  Imagine Keenum or Barkley running this offense.  What, 7-10, tops?  

 

How many times has the running game powered this team to a win over a team with a good defense?  

How many times has the defense powered this team to a win over a team with a good offense?  

 

I'm sure that there's an exception or two, but it doesn't happen for the most part.  Allen has to do everything, and it's pretty clear that the coaches don't challenge him on his risks because they know he's carrying their water.  

 

"And I have to again point out how this coaching staff coddled and stunted Allen.  

300 yards passing is generally used as a starting point with QB's.  It took Allen 28 starts to pass that # (part of McD's incredible 42 game stretch)."  

 

Here's my take on that.  All of the QBs that you named had prolific success in college football.  Allen did not.  Allen posted a mere two 300-yard games at Wyoming, and only three more over 250, and none were against teams that ever challenge for an NCAA title.  Allen went up largely against non-NFL bound competitiont, whereas the others you named did not, they regularly played against players that are now in the NFL.  Rodgers probably comes closest to Allen.  

 

Mahomes was probably the most prolific, 22 of his 32 games were over 300, five were over 500, 11 over 400.  I was surprised that he wasn't among the first few picks and I recall wondering why everyone thought that Trubisky was so good as to be 2nd overall.  Then again it was Chicago.  

 

Anyway, I'm surprised that Allen's done what he's done.  He's very bright and I give him the credit for his own development, which fuels your argument that with better coaching he'd be much better.  Obviously I agree.  

 

He may have come up to speed faster with better coaching, but I never would have expected him to come up like the others given that his learning-curve in that way was far steeper.  Look at Picket for example, in his Sr. season he had 11 of 13 games over 250, 8 of 13 over 300, 3 over 400, and 1 over 500.  In Allen's Jr. season, his last at Wyoming, he had 1 game over 234 yards, 328 and 2 TDs against Gardner-Webb.  Even his Sophomore season, only 1 game over 300, against UNLV.  

 

His development IMO, which agreed, could have been faster and better, has been nothing short of remarkable otherwise.  

 

We knew that Burrow was going to be good just watching him dismantle Clemson and their 3rd-ranked scoring D in the NC game.  Similar for Lawrence, who also came out as a Jr.  But Allen never had the chance to develop against that level of competition.  It's incredibly rare for a QB to learn to do that in the NFL.  

 

Regardless he was the 7th pick and was to be the missing piece.  The Bills went 6-10 his rookie season, needed to bring him in and push him and let him learn on the job and more repetition and passing.  

 

BTW Tyrod threw for 300 with Rex and of course couldn't with McD and I'm still astounded he went 42 games without a single 300 yard passing game. 

 

It only emphasises his conservative and defensive nature. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

300 yards passing is generally used as a starting point with QB's.  It took Allen 28 starts to pass that # (part of McD's incredible 42 game stretch).

 

By the way, your post reminded me of this cartoon.  These were the best, particularly the one about Bledsoe.  But speaking of Trubisky and Chicago ... ROFLMAO  

 

 

 

LMAO, here's the Bledsoe one.  Skip to the 3:10 mark.  ROFLMAO  

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

28 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Regardless he was the 7th pick and was to be the missing piece.  The Bills went 6-10 his rookie season, needed to bring him in and push him and let him learn on the job and more repetition and passing.  

 

BTW Tyrod threw for 300 with Rex and of course couldn't with McD and I'm still astounded he went 42 games without a single 300 yard passing game. 

 

It only emphasises his conservative and defensive nature. 

 

All I'm saying is that Allen was more of a known project of sorts than a plug-n-play QB.  This further reinforces both McD's & Beane's luck.

[BillMafia716ix]

As long as Josh Allen is here. The Bills will be in contention. That’s all you can ask for really but I’m not letting Josh off the hook though either. He has to play better and protect the football. I just seen Patrick Mahomes beat Joe Burrow on literally one leg being down multiple WR’s. Would I like to see Josh with more weapons? Of course but sometimes you gotta work with what you got everything ain’t gonna be perfect. 

[T master]

Was Don Shula, Bill Walsh, Bill Parcels, Bill Belichek, & others on their way to a championship when they took their first HC ing job ? Then ho along did it take Andy Reid to get his first SB ?

 

I believe if we look back there would be plenty examples of HC's that failed while learning exactly what it takes to get their first Championship .

[Billsfan1972]

20 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

All I'm saying is that Allen was more of a known project of sorts than a plug-n-play QB.  This further reinforces both McD's & Beane's luck.

Regardless it's over and done with and McD is back as head coach. We can only hope that he has learned. First and foremost will be what happens in free agency and the draft.

 

And yes 2023 will be Superbowl or bust in my opinion. Anything less is unacceptable (barring an Allen injury).

 

However what I expect from the Stadium Wall will be excuses if the Bills come up short.

[frostbitmic]

Undecided ... Six years or whatever into this and I still don't know if they'll win one, that's a problem. At the end of the last couple of seasons, I was positive they'd win at least a few Super Bowls.

[Goin Breakdown]

2 hours ago, Utah John said:

McBeane have built one of the best regular-season teams in the NFL.  They should routinely rack up 10-12 win seasons, and go x-1 in the playoffs.  x being 0 or 1 or 2  I don't see them going x-0

 

The Bills have a system and they stick to it.  It's too predictable for the coordinators on good teams not to be able to figure out ways to attack it.  

Opposing players have already said that the Bills run a basic defense and they know what they're doing. 

[starrymessenger]

22 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We’re about to find out a lot about our front office and coaching staff this season. I dont think we can answer until after this season.

Personally I think we've seen enough to know better than to expect a meaningful change in direction. But given the apparent decision to run it back I think your approach is 100% correct. After the last two years disappointments McD and his coordinators need to be in a make or break situation. In case things don't work out, 2023 should also be used to identify promising contingent replacement candidates for each of these positions. Having a deliberative process for this is much better than knee jerk firings and improves the chances of getting it right. Not sure where Pegs would go for his advice though and the mere existence of the process would risk creating an in-season distraction.

I think McD was the right choice for the job when hired given what was required at the time. I think he and his assistants did a really good job. But to take the next step means McD having to fundamentally change his philosophical approach to the game and really that means becoming a different person (given how entrenched his approach seems to be). And of course it would mean acquiring a skill set in designing an offence he currently does not have. Alternatively the Bills could fire Dorsey and hire a young, more experienced and creative coordinator but given what I suspect to be McD's suffocating control of pretty much all operations it would only be a matter of time before a clash of opposing mindsets occurred. Not sure what the Bills were thinking when they hired Dorsey (other than hiring someone who McD would not perceive as a threat). I don't think a rookie OC has ever gone to a championship. Dorsey's shortcomings were painfully apparent throughout the year. 
People get criticized for comparing Putin to Hitler, but the truth is that there are strong and compelling similarities between them. To me, even if not the same guy, McD reminds me of Jauron. Before flaming away consider that Dick did not have a supportive owner, had therefore less talent to work with and certainly did not have a generational talent at the all important position. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

........certainly did not have a generational talent......

After six seasons McD's results should be evaluated only against other coaches, past and present who have the advantage of one of the elite QBs in the league.  Comparing him to Andy Reid / Dononvan McNabb is far less relevent than comparing him to Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes.   There are a number of instances of QBs who went to many playoff games with one head coach but only won a championship after a change in head coach.  Peyton Manning, John Elway are the two most prominent.  Did things finally "click' for him in his tenth season, or did Mike Shanahan have a skill set Dan Reeves did not?

[starrymessenger]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

After six seasons McD's results should be evaluated only against other coaches, past and present who have the advantage of one of the elite QBs in the league.  Comparing him to Andy Reid / Dononvan McNabb is far less relevent than comparing him to Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes.   There are a number of instances of QBs who went to many playoff games with one head coach but only won a championship after a change in head coach.  Peyton Manning, John Elway are the two most prominent.  Did things finally "click' for him in his tenth season, or did Mike Shanahan have a skill set Dan Reeves did not?

He drafted T. Davis, a HOF RB. Bijan anyone? Point is that's not the kind of pick that McD would ever be onside with.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

I just seen Patrick Mahomes beat Joe Burrow on literally one leg being down multiple WR’s

 

Mahomes held the Bengals to 20 points? I knew he was good but that's an unbelievable performance.