The Frankish Reich Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said: So we’ve gone from ‘having it easy’ all the way down to being in ‘relatively good shape’ in the span of a single paragraph? Well, yeah! The investor class was pretty damn happy with stock market returns in 2020-21. It was, in retrospect, pretty absurd (we paid the price with inflation later). "15 days to stop the spread" was announced by the White House on March 16, 2020. The S%P closed at 2425. On December 30, 2021, it closed at 4778. Doubled during the course of 20.5 months, which of course included a time in which huge parts of the economy were shut down. This is what the government can do when it takes unprecedented interventions in the economy. But there was no free lunch ...
Tommy Callahan Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Well, yeah! The investor class was pretty damn happy with stock market returns in 2020-21. It was, in retrospect, pretty absurd (we paid the price with inflation later). "15 days to stop the spread" was announced by the White House on March 16, 2020. The S%P closed at 2425. On December 30, 2021, it closed at 4778. Doubled during the course of 20.5 months, which of course included a time in which huge parts of the economy were shut down. This is what the government can do when it takes unprecedented interventions in the economy. But there was no free lunch ... yeah. the state pandemic response was amazing for the fortune 500 companies that have majority stock ownership by investment groups like BlackRock/vanguard. as long as they continue to horde cash, they should be able to weather the interest rate storm.
The Frankish Reich Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chris farley said: the state pandemic response was amazing for the fortune 500 companies that have majority stock ownership by investment groups like BlackRock/vanguard And I wonder where Black Rock and Vanguard get all that money to buy stock in S&P 500 companies? Could it be that they get it from institutional (think "pension funds") and individual (think: you and me and our 401ks) investors? If I were as childish as some here, I would have just responded "commie!" After all, you are blaming "the capitalists." 1 1
SoCal Deek Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 23 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Well, yeah! The investor class was pretty damn happy with stock market returns in 2020-21. It was, in retrospect, pretty absurd (we paid the price with inflation later). "15 days to stop the spread" was announced by the White House on March 16, 2020. The S%P closed at 2425. On December 30, 2021, it closed at 4778. Doubled during the course of 20.5 months, which of course included a time in which huge parts of the economy were shut down. This is what the government can do when it takes unprecedented interventions in the economy. But there was no free lunch ... So you’ve picked that one window of time from three years ago? The original discussion was on how the investor class has been doing….lately. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: So you’ve picked that one window of time from three years ago? The original discussion was on how the investor class has been doing….lately. Ugh. I can do this all morning (well, for another 15 minutes or so till I have a meeting): S&P 500 is up about 14% since Biden was inaugurated. No, that's not the doubling that greedy equity investors somehow think is sustainable. But it's 14% up over the course of 31 months, even as the Fed has embarked on its longest sustained interest rate increase program in over 40 years. So that's on average about 5.5% per year annualized, which is right within the normal long term range. And it means that at that sustained rate an investment of, say, $100,000 would double in 13 years. The "investor class" (again, I dispute the Bernie Sanders-ish terminology, since that includes everyone with a 401k) has nothing to whine about. Edited August 25, 2023 by The Frankish Reich 1
SoCal Deek Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Ugh. I can do this all morning (well, for another 15 minutes or so till I have a meeting): S&P 500 is up about 14% since Biden was inaugurated. No, that's not the doubling that greedy equity investors somehow think is sustainable. But it's 14% up over the course of 31 months, even as the Fed has embarked on its longest sustained interest rate increase program in over 40 years. So that's on average about 5.5% per year annualized, which is right within the normal long term range. And it means that at that sustained rate an investment of, say, $100,000 would double in 13 years. The "investor class" (again, I dispute the Bernie Sanders-ish terminology, since that includes everyone with a 401k) has nothing to whine about. Ugh! I’m not trying to be political here. The point is that these returns have NOT been stellar….just okay at best. I was responding to an earlier post which was implying that investors had seen a windfall at the expense of the drowning middle class (who’re being eaten up by inflation). That is simply not true. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Ugh! I’m not trying to be political here. The point is that these returns have NOT been stellar….just okay at best. I was responding to an earlier post which was implying that investors had seen a windfall at the expense of the drowning middle class (who’re being eaten up by inflation). That is simply not true. The first part is true. Returns under Biden have not been "stellar." More "normal" overall. But take a look at this chart - particularly the Bush 43 years and the Obama years: https://www.investopedia.com/presidents-and-their-impact-on-the-stock-market-4587369 The second part is not true if we talk about the post-COVID shutdowns economy. Overall, the markets have seen huge gains, followed by a rapid uptick in inflation. I think it's fair to say that the investor class* has done extremely well while the middle class has borne the brunt of price increases. *perhaps more accurate to compare "those with investable savings" vs. "those with significant debt." And right now, with rising interest rates, the first class is still doing just fine (what's so bad about 5% interest rates on safe fixed income investments?) and the latter class is going to feel the pain (rising rates on credit card debt, consumer loans, mortgages). This is life in a capitalist economy. 1
SectionC3 Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Ugh! I’m not trying to be political here. The point is that these returns have NOT been stellar….just okay at best. I was responding to an earlier post which was implying that investors had seen a windfall at the expense of the drowning middle class (who’re being eaten up by inflation). That is simply not true. Returns haven’t been great, but we had a sugar high with the Trump tax cuts and a black swan with COVID. It had to come back to earth at some point. And we as a nation probably have a big bill today. It seems like everything and everyone operates on credit. It can’t last forever. 1
All_Pro_Bills Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Ugh! I’m not trying to be political here. The point is that these returns have NOT been stellar….just okay at best. I was responding to an earlier post which was implying that investors had seen a windfall at the expense of the drowning middle class (who’re being eaten up by inflation). That is simply not true. The energy sector has done well under Biden. A double since he became President through a combination of policy, demand, supply, and rebound from COVID reasons. One indicator that is particularly troubling for the markets is the high/low data. The number of stocks making 52 week highs vs. the number of stocks making 52 week lows. The recent data I saw for NASDAQ for example, show 5 stocks making highs and 114 making new lows indicate just a handful of stocks are propping up the market and can be an indicator of potential future downside. Hot stocks like NVIDIA riding the current craze for AI may have peaked this week after a reversal from highs after a decent earnings report. Powell's Jackson Hole statements today don't look too supportive of higher stock prices either. I'm going to yellow alert for crash watch to go short. 1 1
SoCal Deek Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 In short, all that’s happened in the last three years is we’ve come right back to where we were before the economic shutdown, except inflation has made those gains worth way less. 3
Pokebball Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 Just now, SoCal Deek said: In short, all that’s happened in the last three years is we’ve come right back to where we were before the economic shutdown, except inflation has made those gains worth way less. It's worse actually, in so many ways. 2
SoCal Deek Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Pokebball said: It's worse actually, in so many ways. Now wait for the spin machine to snap into action! 2 1
SoCal Deek Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Are you sure that’s not Tony Soprano? 😉 1
Tiberius Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Are you sure that’s not Tony Soprano? 😉 Yup, Joe isn't the criminal running for President, Trump is 3
Tommy Callahan Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Are you sure that’s not Tony Soprano? 😉 if it wasn't for the fact it has 5 fingers, would have gone with AI generated. its amazing what lighting, shading and make up can do now of days.
Pokebball Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Yup, Joe isn't the criminal running for President, Trump is Did Joe drop out of 24 race? 1
All_Pro_Bills Posted August 25, 2023 Posted August 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Pokebball said: Did Joe drop out of 24 race? No but he changed his stage name to Robert L Peters. 1 2
Tommy Callahan Posted September 6, 2023 Posted September 6, 2023 its funny how that site says "No lie with Bryan Tyler Cohen" then just continues to lie over and over again. and the slow folks keep referencing it. 1
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