Scouts, Scheme, Evolution, free agency, and a Hands-Off Coach

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

Do you actually think that McDermott was targeting Tre White 17 picks and 6 dbs later? 

 

Yes. And that isn't even Monday morning Quarterbacking. There will be somewhere a post from me in the draft thread of that year right after the trade back where I said "I think their target will be Tre White." 

 

Of course they couldn't have known he would last but I think at the point they made that trade Tre would have been right there on their targets list. He was perfect for them and most people had him going in that range.

[Bill from NYC]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. And that isn't even Monday morning Quarterbacking. There will be somewhere a post from me in the draft thread of that year right after the trade back where I said "I think their target will be Tre White." 

 

Of course they couldn't have known he would last but I think at the point they made that trade Tre would have been right there on their targets list. He was perfect for them and most people had him going in that range.

GB, I am sure that YOU targeted him. So did @BADOLBILZ, who said that he was the best corner in that draft. What I don't believe is that McDermott was targeting him specifically, 6 dbs and 17 picks later. It also tells me that he was after a db specifically despite having no quarterback. 

As I told you in a previous thread, I posted that I wanted the Bills to draft Landon Dickerson. It sounds crazy but often Bills Fans make better draft choices than men that are paid millions of dollars. An average 10 year old drafted better than Levy/Jauron. McDermott is a step or so above that horrid duo; this I will admit.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

GB, I am sure that YOU targeted him. So did @BADOLBILZ, who said that he was the best corner in that draft. What I don't believe is that McDermott was targeting him specifically, 6 dbs and 17 picks later. It also tells me that he was after a db specifically despite having no quarterback. 

As I told you in a previous thread, I posted that I wanted the Bills to draft Landon Dickerson. It sounds crazy but often Bills Fans make better draft choices than men that are paid millions of dollars. An average 10 year old drafted better than Levy/Jauron. McDermott is a step or so above that horrid duo; this I will admit.

 

No, my post was that I thought THEY were targeting him. 

 

EDIT: as for Dickerson I liked him too. But not more than Groot.

Edited February 4, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Bill from NYC]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No, my post was that I thought THEY were targeting him. 

 

EDIT: as for Dickerson I liked him too. But not more than Groot.

I thought that a healthy Dickerson would easily develop into the best center in the NFL. I admit to not knowing that he would be on his way to being the best GUARD in the NFL. He is freaking deadly on short yardage downs. Did you see what he did to the 49ers on those plays? 

He gained muscle after leaving Alabama, where he was already a monster. Man I wish that we would have drafted that kid!!!

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I thought that a healthy Dickerson would easily develop into the best center in the NFL. I admit to not knowing that he would be on his way to being the best GUARD in the NFL. He is freaking deadly on short yardage downs. Did you see what he did to the 49ers on those plays? 

He gained muscle after leaving Alabama, where he was already a monster. Man I wish that we would have drafted that kid!!!

 

He is a very good player. I don't think he is the best guard in the NFL but he is a very fine player. No doubt. And knee issues apart he was a VERY safe bet.

[Bill from NYC]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is a very good player. I don't think he is the best guard in the NFL but he is a very fine player. No doubt. And knee issues apart he was a VERY safe bet.

Well, I did say "on his way."  

[Bill from NYC]

5 hours ago, nosejob said:

I believe they made that trade to have the ammo to get their QB the next year, and actually got a great day 1 corner in the process. Mahommes got to sit a year behind Alex Smith while K.C. built a roster. I would have taken Josh at 7 and then jumped Tampa for Vita Vea, but it is what it is. Complaining about past drafts is a waste of time. We passed on Jimmy G., Carr and Wilson, so..... Complaining about schemes, especially defensively is worth discussion.

 

 

Thanks. I was hoping for someone like you to tell me what I should and should not post. i really appreciate it. Please read my future posts and let me know if you think they are out of line. 

Keep in mind, I really care quite a bit about your opinion.

[RocCityRoller]

On 2/2/2023 at 6:49 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

     I think Sean and Beane will always get a lifetime pass from many fans for getting out of the drought and getting Josh. But beyond these 2 acts, I don't feel optimistic about their abilities anymore.

100% how I feel too.

 

Love and respect those guys for coming in and turning around a broken organization. They made winning and playoff experiences expected again.

 

Am thrilled they found us a real franchise QB, AND locked him up long term. Made a few good trades.

 

That is a lot to accomplish. But not sure how much further they can go. I'll leave it at that.

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, RocCityRoller said:

100% how I feel too.

 

Love and respect those guys for coming in and turning around a broken organization. They made winning and playoff experiences expected again.

 

Am thrilled they found us a real franchise QB, AND locked him up long term. Made a few good trades.

 

That is a lot to accomplish. But not sure how much further they can go. I'll leave it at that.

no need to be grateful for life because someone was competent at their job. 

[RocCityRoller]

Just now, Chaos said:

no need to be grateful for life because someone was competent at their job. 

I agree, not sure where I said that.

[GreggTX]

Great writeup Virgil! I like the idea of McDermott getting more involved with the offense. If we put as much effort into building our OL as we do with our DL we might still be looking forward to our 1st SB in a generation. Still, I have no way of knowing how McDermott divides his time and attention now.

[machine gun kelly]

On 2/2/2023 at 5:36 PM, Virgil said:

As I sit and think about this past season, and there's a lot to think about, I can't help but find it odd at how little I reacted to our loss against the Bengals.  Maybe, like the team, I was finally worn out from everything that happened and didn't have it in me to get upset.  I think being a Super Bowl favorite was the biggest impact, because those expectations are so unrealistic.  Someone posted that only 1 team in the last 20 years won the Super Bowl that was actually the favorite at the beginning of the year.  That, plus watching our team struggle to put teams away, albeit on an 8 game winning streak, didn't leave me with a lot of optimism against the Bengals.  When I think about why I stopped writing the "Thoughts" each week, I really think the expectations removed the fun for me.  Or maybe I'm just getting older.  I'm in multiple fantasy football leagues, in which I won 3 of them and finished 2nd in another.  Even with that, I think this was my last year playing fantasy football.  So something has changed.

 

So how do we go from the most complete team, who's everyone's Super Bowl favorites, that's winning by double digit scores to a team that is now considered maybe the 3rd best team in the conference with the gap between 4 and 10 closing quickly?

 

Scouts - Correct me if I'm wrong, but GM's rely on their scouts to build their draft boards.  Additionally, most NFL team boards are pretty similar for the first few rounds.  Yes, team doctors and interviews could adjust rankings a little, but 1st through 3rd round grades are typically close amongst teams.  I'm not saying this to give Beane a pass, but I think the context is relevant.  We all know that Beane has struggled with draft success on the offense and defensive lines.  It's easy to point out the successes that other teams have with drafting players at this position, but we all know there's typically more failure than success with most teams.  To me, I want to see the Bills make adjustments with their scouting department who's making these player evaluations.  It feels like every chance we've taken has backfired on us.  Spencer Brown has provided nice quality for how he was acquired, but that's not to say he is a lock to be part of our future.  Same for our defensive line, I think most of us agree that we will vomit in unison if more high draft capitol on the defensive line.  To continue to do so would be the definition of insanity to me.  Beane passed his first major test in getting the Bills into a contender and setting us up for success within the cap.  Now, we are on to phase 2 in the plan, improving on that success once players are getting paid.  I don't worry about the cap with Beane, but I do believe he needs to adjust his team to compensate for our known opportunities.

 

Scheme - I'm not picking on one particular coordinator, but this team has a clear scheme opportunity.  If you disagree, let me present you with this.  Von Miller goes out, and we can no longer generate a pass rush that gets to the quarterback.  The Bills can't seem to find a quality receiver outside of Diggs and sometimes Davis, to the point we brought back Smoke and Beasley.  Yet, we release Hodgins who makes an immediate impact for the Giants.  Hughes, whom the FO deemed was done, had a very solid season in Houston with no support around him.  The Bills play teams with makeshift quarterbacks, but still find ways to get guys open and play us to the wire.  We played a decimated Bengals offensive line but still couldn't get to Joe Burrow.  The Chiefs got to him all game the next week.  The Bengals got pressure on Josh with only three lineman.  Our offense almost appears to be a two read system, and then let Josh hero ball kick in.  Now granted, the jury is still out regarding if that was Josh making that choice, but most All-22 reviews seem to support scheme issues.  Look at Knox in the first half vs second half.  Did Know forget how to football and then magically figure it out.  Our what about our inconstancy rushing the ball with Cook or Motor?  Stats and game film aside, you could just feel the lack of rhythm on offense.  On defense, once the playoffs kicked in and opposing teams really focus in their weekly strategy, our defense has folded for two straight years.

 

Evolution - We had the greatest show on turf, and then evolution of cover 2.  We had big bodied lineman and rushing attacks, to a spread offense where everyone got tiny on both sides of the ball.  McD ran a great defense in Carolina and started one here as well.  It's based of a very specific scheme of bend, but don't break.  It puts specific players in a position to succeed, while others play a role.  I think there's still a debate as to where our defense is a McD defense that Frazier runs, or if this really is a Frazier defense.  From my memory, any time McD stepped in and assisted with play calling, the defense showed a solid uptick.  Regardless, 5 years of the same defense that gets picked apart in the playoffs is like watching the Yankees.  Built for the regular season, but can't lock it down when it matters.  I am more inclined to give Dorsey a pass in his first year.  I think we saw what Daboll can do with a weaker offensive cast.  Scheme clearly matters and I wonder if Daboll and McD's opposition limited Daboll's ability to run the scheme he wanted here.  No matter what we do, I hope the plan isn't to run back the same schemes.  We need to be more flexible for the regular season as our division evolves, but also ready for the Bengals and Chiefs, who we will be playing for a ticket to the Super Bowl for the next decade.  

 

Free Agency - You always have to build your team through the draft.  You can't spend money on free agency because you'll run out of money.  That's what we always hear and I'm no longer a believer in that philosophy completely.  I believe the draft is your path to cheap labor that fills depth and hopefully evolves into key contributors.  The evaluation of which players will translate their skills to the NFL is such a crap shoot.  However, as we see cap space opportunities and players more likely to take prove it deals, I believe FA focus is something we need to be more involved with.  Outside of our terrible O/D Line evaluations, I think Beane's done an overall great job of bringing in FA contributors.  Look at the Rams, Chiefs, and Eagles.  They did a great job of getting guys on 1 year deals that made a huge difference for their teams.  I think we need to start operating in a similar fashion.  The Chiefs knocked it out on both sides by having most of their 2022 draft contribute in year one, but I attribute that to Reid's scheme as much as anything else.  

 

Hands off McD - In your first few years as a Head Coach, you need to have somethings be familiar to you; and your past success is what earned you the job.  I think McD's next step in his HC evolution is to step back on defense completely, accept that a new defensive scheme is necessary, and let that coach do their job.  In doing so, also lean more into the offensive side to learn and understand to the point of contribution on gameday.  Yes, Reid still runs that offense for the most part, but his system still works and he evolves.  McD doesn't, and that's okay.  But I truly believe McD is best as a coach for the way he handles players, the culture, and demeanor.  We don't need his defensive mind anymore, we need him to bring in coaches with schemes that give us the best chance to win.  Frazier not getting a HC interview this year tells you that the rest of the league feels the same way about our defense, stats aside.  

 

With all that being said, I figured might as well talk about players too.  I'm not going deep, but I think that all options should be on the table for the offensive and defensive line.  If we can give Josh 3 full seconds to throw before even considering moving his feet, that would be massive for this offense.  Add to that the threat of a rushing attack and we are good.  On defense, I'm letting Oliver play this year out.  I'm franchise tagging Edmunds and looking for a trade partner.  If they don't think they can find a trade partner, let him walk.  I am not relying on anyone besides Miller, Oliver, Groot, and Jones as a starter next year.  Phillips and Shaq can come back on their min deals, but a FA established guy for a 3rd DE should be a priority (but not through the draft!).  Poyer, while he is amazing for us, just can't be brought back with his salary demands.  Either a FA cheaper option or the draft will need to replace that.  On offense, I'm open to moving Dawkins to RT if needed, but the rest needs to overhauled in FA.  Unless they plan on finally going offensive line in the first two rounds, I don't any more flyers on guys who fell.  They fell for a reason.  Brown, Bates, and Boettger can all compete for jobs, but promised nothing.  Davis can also play out his final year, and with solid receivers going for 20 mil per, I think draft in the first two rounds is key.  Sadly, there's only so many picks in a draft, so an Edmunds or even Oliver trade would be helpful, but I'm hoping Safety, MLB, WR, and O-Line in the first 5 picks, hopefully extra's in the top 3 rounds.

 

That's all I got everyone.  For those that missed the "Thoughts", I apologize.  Maybe I'll feel different next year, but I can honestly say I didn't miss writing them.  I did miss the interactions with everyone on the board, but that still happens in other ways.  I'll still be doing the mock drafts though, so don't worry about that.

Go Bills!!

virg, what did you drink three 5hr energies.  Just kidding.😇🤩🦬🏈.

 

A very thorough evaluation of the team. I wondered why you stopped on the game reviews.

 

I don’t think everything is a mess, but we definitely need to take a step forward.  You’re right we need a strong draft.  We certainly don’t have the cap space for any large acquisitions.

[nosejob]

12 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks. I was hoping for someone like you to tell me what I should and should not post. i really appreciate it. Please read my future posts and let me know if you think they are out of line. 

Keep in mind, I really care quite a bit about your opinion.

Duly noted. You are welcome.

[JaCrispy]

I was the same way OP…I’ve never been more relaxed during a Bills loss my whole life- probably because I knew they weren’t good enough to go all the way, and I’d rather they lose earlier in the playoffs than have my heart ripped out with them losing another AFC championship or  worse, a Super Bowl…👍

[RyanC883]

On 2/4/2023 at 9:05 AM, jkeerie said:

Not necessarily.  Edmunds being so young would allow them to work a longer contract to spread out the cap hit.  They could make it work if they wanted to.

 

i mean if they can make the contract work that’d be great, I just don’t know if that’s realistic.   Hope so.  Less holes would be nice.  If they can sign him and a WR like Kirk that’d be great.