Scouts, Scheme, Evolution, free agency, and a Hands-Off Coach

[Coach Tuesday]

18 hours ago, Virgil said:

Outside of our terrible O/D Line evaluations, I think Beane's done an overall great job of bringing in FA contributors. 

 

Curious why you think this?  The only value FAs Beane has brought in have been on the o-line (D. Williams, for a minute) and D. Jones.  That's it - every other free agent spend has been at the market high and/or a flop.  They've actually done a TERRIBLE job in free agency.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Alright, I tried to get an impact WR, OT, and C/G in the first three rounds.  No clue how it went after that.  It did result in me drafting a WR higher than he likely goes, but this kid is fast and productive, so I'm not too worried.  He looks like a day 1 weapon.  Also happy with the T and C/G.  What do you all think, particularly the draft gurus.  

 

 

I like Bergeron a lot... although I think he might end up inside at the NFL level too. 

 

I think Downs is bad value at #27 myself. Slot only and has had issues with drops (and bearing in mind his average depth of target isn't super high that is doubly concerning).

[Gugny]

19 hours ago, Virgil said:

Hands of McD - Frazier not getting a HC interview this year tells you that the rest of the league feels the same way about our defense, stats aside. 

 

I think the rest of the league also understands the importance of offense, which is what wins championships now.

[RyanC883]

here is another attempt for you draft gurus.  I like this one more: 

 

27.

Anton Harrison

OT Oklahoma

(appears to be very athletic, and solid in run and pass blocking) 

 

59.

Cedric Tillman

WR Tennessee

(injured last year, year before put up monster numbers.  Big WR.  Next D. Adams or that guy from Seattle whose name escapes me).  

 

91.

Joe Tippmann

OC Wisconsin

(don't know a ton about him, but gave up 0 sacks his senior year.  Appears capable...my guy Patterson was gone by this point).  

 

 

130.

Ronnie Hickman

S Ohio State

(know nothing about him.  @YoloinOhio might?) 

 

139.

Kendre Miller

RB TCU

(physical RB according to what I've read)  

 

164.

Deshawn Pace

LB Cincinnati

(not a physical back, but good in zone coverage and reading a QB.  Seems like an Edmunds replacement.)  

 

Analysis not all mine.  Too a lot from https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

here is another attempt for you draft gurus.  I like this one more: 

 

27.

Anton Harrison

OT Oklahoma

(appears to be very athletic, and solid in run and pass blocking) 

 

59.

Cedric Tillman

WR Tennessee

(injured last year, year before put up monster numbers.  Big WR.  Next D. Adams or that guy from Seattle whose name escapes me).  

 

91.

Joe Tippmann

OC Wisconsin

(don't know a ton about him, but gave up 0 sacks his senior year.  Appears capable...my guy Patterson was gone by this point).  

 

 

I haven't studied Tippman in a lot of detail yet but was interested that DJ had him in his top 50. 

[jkeerie]

13 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I just don't think Fraizer or Dorsey are going to have a much different scheme. 

Edmunds isn't a game changer. He very rarely makes big plays. Never gets a turnover. 

 

He's solid and the Bills defense suffers when he's out. However, I think the Bills can find a solid replacement for way less. He doesn't deserve top dollar money. 

I disagree.  You know when Edmunds makes a difference?  When he's injured and not on the field.  Suddenly, the middle of our defense is wide open...especially to the pass.

[Don Otreply]

Our schemes, both offensive and defensive are stagnant & lacking imagination.
   The issue with the “D” lies clearly on Frazier and McDermott, they both lack the capacity to modify their scheme to adapt to what opposing offenses do to them, and the same can be said of the “O”, Dorsey lacks the experience / knowledge to call plays in a sequence that takes advantage of personnel, and what defenses give him, for example,  the underneath pass.

   Dorsey is predictable in his play calling and currently lacks the knowledge to mix things up when it is needed, imo, if he bombs out early in the playoffs and struggles to beat low level teams again this upcoming season he needs to be gone,

   Frazier really needs to go now/ today, he has openly admitted in an interview approximately ten-ish months ago to not wanting to make adjustments in games when his defense is getting owned.

   At the end of the day, all of this falls on McDermotts desk, can Sean practice what he preaches? Can he evolve? Or is this the peak of what he can achieve?  A real lot of work needs to be done by the decision makers at OBD. Imo, it’s 60/40 against real adaptation happening, sure hope I’m wrong. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[Lost]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like Bergeron a lot... although I think he might end up inside at the NFL level too. 

 

I think Downs is bad value at #27 myself. Slot only and has had issues with drops (and bearing in mind his average depth of target isn't super high that is doubly concerning).

 

I'm cool with taking a WR in round one as long as it's Quentin Johnston and I wouldn't mind even trading up a few spots for him.

[LABILLBACKER]

18 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Good assessment.  And kudos for taking the time and effort to document your thoughts.

My view, regardless of the area, is a lack of progression and innovation by the coaching staff and front office.  Its like they put a "process" in place 4/5 years ago and have failed to adjust and tune it using experience, data, and learnings either good or bad.  They simply repeat the same script every season which fails in the playoffs at more or less the same place and under similar circumstances.  A failure to adopt to changing conditions given better information.  All ways to say they never make any fundamental changes or adjustments.  This dog just doesn't learn new tricks.

 

 

.

You can only listen to the same sermon from the same priest every Sunday for so long.

[Nextmanup]

21 hours ago, jkeerie said:

The only thing I really disagree with is Edmunds.  I think he makes a big difference in limiting passing to the middle of the Bills defense.  He played his way to a new contract and with his youth could be signed to a longer term deal that would spread the cap out over a longer period.  Definitely agree that Oliver and Gabe need to prove themselves this year.

I continue to hear from "experts" who talk about this stuff for a living that Edmunds is going to get north of $15 million per, and it might even be $17 or $18 million!
 

I pray to God we don't re-sign him.

 

Any FAST LB can slot into that role in our system and achieve similar results.

 

 

[jkeerie]

19 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I continue to hear from "experts" who talk about this stuff for a living that Edmunds is going to get north of $15 million per, and it might even be $17 or $18 million!
 

I pray to God we don't re-sign him.

 

Any FAST LB can slot into that role in our system and achieve similar results.

 

 

I disagree, but the price has to be reasonable.   Spotrac has it estimated at $11M per year.  The average for the position is $12M

[Virgil]

5 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

I disagree, but the price has to be reasonable.   Spotrac has it estimated at $11M per year.  The average for the position is $12M

While I know that’s not a lot of money in todays NFL, I think I’d rather take my chances on a rookie with a higher upside.   At his best, I think Edmunds is solid, but not a game changer.  We need that in this defense.  Luke Kuechley showed what a McD defense can really look like 

[jkeerie]

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

While I know that’s not a lot of money in todays NFL, I think I’d rather take my chances on a rookie with a higher upside.   At his best, I think Edmunds is solid, but not a game changer.  We need that in this defense.  Luke Kuechley showed what a McD defense can really look like 

The Luke Kuechleys of the NFL are few and far between.  Edmunds is a game changer when he's not on the field.  This defense suffers when he's out with injury, especially porous in the middle of the field in the passing game.

[dave mcbride]

50 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I continue to hear from "experts" who talk about this stuff for a living that Edmunds is going to get north of $15 million per, and it might even be $17 or $18 million!
 

I pray to God we don't re-sign him.

 

Any FAST LB can slot into that role in our system and achieve similar results.

 

 

He defenses a LOT of passes. That's the same as tackling a RB at the LOS with the added benefit of making QBs being leery about throwing 20 yards downfield to the middle of the field if he's lurking in that region. He had 4 pass breakups vs. Miami. 

23 minutes ago, Virgil said:

While I know that’s not a lot of money in todays NFL, I think I’d rather take my chances on a rookie with a higher upside.   At his best, I think Edmunds is solid, but not a game changer.  We need that in this defense.  Luke Kuechley showed what a McD defense can really look like 

The only type of rookie with a higher upside than Edmunds is going to be a first or second round pick, and if the Bills are taking an off-ball LB with a first or second round pick, they're drafting very stupidly. I'd re-sign him given that I believe that he's a core component of this defense. People might not like the scheme, but you go to war with the army you have and he's a good soldier for this scheme. He is not perfect, of course, but they have bigger holes to fill. 

Edited February 3, 2023 by dave mcbride

[BillsVet]

 

15 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

The Luke Kuechleys of the NFL are few and far between.  Edmunds is a game changer when he's not on the field.  This defense suffers when he's out with injury, especially porous in the middle of the field in the passing game.

 

How many game changing MLB's haven't forced a fumble in their last 77 regular and post-season games on ~4,100 snaps played? 

[Sharky7337]

Wall of text crits you for over 9000.... you die and season is no longer a concern.

 

All joking aside I agree with a lot of it.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Sharky7337

[Chaos]

The Bills strategy on defense is to be passive and let crappy teams make unforced errors. And it works really well agains those teams. It collapses in the face of teams with talent and aggressive game plans.  It seems unlikely to ever work deep into the playoffs. 

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

How many game changing MLB's haven't forced a fumble in their last 77 regular and post-season games on ~4,100 snaps played? 

Okay.  Let him walk.  Who do you replace him with that is guaranteed to be a game changer?  I'm all for improving any position on the Bills.  Who's that game changer that improves the position?

[RyanC883]

20 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Okay.  Let him walk.  Who do you replace him with that is guaranteed to be a game changer?  I'm all for improving any position on the Bills.  Who's that game changer that improves the position?

 

For me, the point is that we can get a non game changer for less, and spend on WR or OT.  

[Jrb1979]

21 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Okay.  Let him walk.  Who do you replace him with that is guaranteed to be a game changer?  I'm all for improving any position on the Bills.  Who's that game changer that improves the position?

Nobody. The problem is lack of cap room to re-sign him. I think many don't understand the situation the Bills are in.