Scouts, Scheme, Evolution, free agency, and a Hands-Off Coach

[jkeerie]

6 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Nobody. The problem is lack of cap room to re-sign him. I think many don't understand the situation the Bills are in. 

I think I do.  I also think that with his age, the Bills could resign him with a longer contract to spread out the cap hit.  They can create cap space by reworking a few contracts, turning base salary into bonus, etc.  Having said that, if the Bills can't make it work, then so be it.  And I appreciate your honesty.

[jkeerie]

12 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

For me, the point is that we can get a non game changer for less, and spend on WR or OT.  

I definitely agree we need help in those areas.  I think we don't create any more holes on defense so we can use the draft for offensive players and get the WR and OL help that we need, and not pay through the nose to bring veterans in at a higher cost.  We are not going to be able to afford high priced veterans.  Beane already said that.   We would be talking about the kind of players we had on the OL this year.  Less than stellar wouldn't you say?   Likely the same at WR.

[Jrb1979]

6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

I think I do.  I also think that with his age, the Bills could resign him with a longer contract to spread out the cap hit.  They can create cap space by reworking a few contracts, turning base salary into bonus, etc.  Having said that, if the Bills can't make it work, then so be it.  And I appreciate your honesty.

While reworking contracts will help, they do have a lot of holes to fill. They need an upgrade at WR, and revamp the OL. They can spend that money better elsewhere. Defense doesn't win in this league like it used to. 

[jkeerie]

2 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

While reworking contracts will help, they do have a lot of holes to fill. They need an upgrade at WR, and revamp the OL. They can spend that money better elsewhere. Defense doesn't win in this league like it used to. 

That's why I don't want to create any more holes on the defense that we will have to spend draft picks on.  I'd like us to use this draft for offensive players, particularly OL and WR.  If you can fill your roster with those positions through the draft, then you've got 4 to 5 years of "cheap labor" in key positions, rather than having to bring in aging Vets who are past their prime on expensive contracts just because that's what those positions cost in the veteran market.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

The Bills strategy on defense is to be passive and let crappy teams make unforced errors. And it works really well agains those teams. It collapses in the face of teams with talent and aggressive game plans.  It seems unlikely to ever work deep into the playoffs. 

Exactly....in the playoffs we never ramp it up. We're never physical or aggressive.  We have one reliable blitzer in Milano and Leslie rarely calls blitzes. And as far as calling a Cover2 man- up, forget about it.  The scheme sort-of works in the regular season with a healthy elite pass rusher (Von). But without him we were toast in the playoffs. Frazier needs to go and the scheme needs to change.

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

He defenses a LOT of passes. That's the same as tackling a RB at the LOS with the added benefit of making QBs being leery about throwing 20 yards downfield to the middle of the field if he's lurking in that region. He had 4 pass breakups vs. Miami. 

The only type of rookie with a higher upside than Edmunds is going to be a first or second round pick, and if the Bills are taking an off-ball LB with a first or second round pick, they're drafting very stupidly. I'd re-sign him given that I believe that he's a core component of this defense. People might not like the scheme, but you go to war with the army you have and he's a good soldier for this scheme. He is not perfect, of course, but they have bigger holes to fill. 

Amen to this.

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly....in the playoffs we never ramp it up. We're never physical or aggressive.  We have one reliable blitzer in Milano and Leslie rarely calls blitzes. And as far as calling a Cover2 man- up, forget about it.  The scheme sort-of works in the regular season with a healthy elite pass rusher (Von). But without him we were toast in the playoffs. Frazier needs to go and the scheme needs to change.

In fairness, I feel like Frazier dialed up a lot more blitzes than usual this year.  Sadly, they rarely worked and the offense found the gaps quickly. 

[Xwnyer]

The offensive scheme needs to change drastically.  We rarely run the ball, can’t throw a screen , no draws, no play action, no jet sweeps, no trick plays, no motion etc.   the OC is over  his head every play is home  run ball.  The defense MUSt change is getting chopped up in playoffs.  Personally would love to see new coordinators on both sides of the ball.  Dorsey is gonna waste Allen’s talent 

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, jkeerie said:

Okay.  Let him walk.  Who do you replace him with that is guaranteed to be a game changer?  I'm all for improving any position on the Bills.  Who's that game changer that improves the position?

 

The only guarantees in life are death and taxes.  Not 1st round MLBs.  Sorry. 

[Mark Vader]

9 hours ago, Lost said:

 

I'm cool with taking a WR in round one as long as it's Quentin Johnston and I wouldn't mind even trading up a few spots for him.

You would have to move up more than a "few" spots to get Johnston.

[jkeerie]

36 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

The only guarantees in life are death and taxes.  Not 1st round MLBs.  Sorry. 

Just what I thought.  Everyone can criticize and tear down, but no one has any real solutions. 

Now we wait to see what the Bills decide.  They will have a plan.  We may not agree with it...but they will have a plan.

[WideNine]

On 2/2/2023 at 2:36 PM, Virgil said:

As I sit and think about this past season, and there's a lot to think about, I can't help but find it odd at how little I reacted to our loss against the Bengals.  Maybe, like the team, I was finally worn out from everything that happened and didn't have it in me to get upset.  I think being a Super Bowl favorite was the biggest impact, because those expectations are so unrealistic.  Someone posted that only 1 team in the last 20 years won the Super Bowl that was actually the favorite at the beginning of the year.  That, plus watching our team struggle to put teams away, albeit on an 8 game winning streak, didn't leave me with a lot of optimism against the Bengals.  When I think about why I stopped writing the "Thoughts" each week, I really think the expectations removed the fun for me.  Or maybe I'm just getting older.  I'm in multiple fantasy football leagues, in which I won 3 of them and finished 2nd in another.  Even with that, I think this was my last year playing fantasy football.  So something has changed.

 

So how do we go from the most complete team, who's everyone's Super Bowl favorites, that's winning by double digit scores to a team that is now considered maybe the 3rd best team in the conference with the gap between 4 and 10 closing quickly?

 

Scouts - Correct me if I'm wrong, but GM's rely on their scouts to build their draft boards.  Additionally, most NFL team boards are pretty similar for the first few rounds.  Yes, team doctors and interviews could adjust rankings a little, but 1st through 3rd round grades are typically close amongst teams.  I'm not saying this to give Beane a pass, but I think the context is relevant.  We all know that Beane has struggled with draft success on the offense and defensive lines.  It's easy to point out the successes that other teams have with drafting players at this position, but we all know there's typically more failure than success with most teams.  To me, I want to see the Bills make adjustments with their scouting department who's making these player evaluations.  It feels like every chance we've taken has backfired on us.  Spencer Brown has provided nice quality for how he was acquired, but that's not to say he is a lock to be part of our future.  Same for our defensive line, I think most of us agree that we will vomit in unison if more high draft capitol on the defensive line.  To continue to do so would be the definition of insanity to me.  Beane passed his first major test in getting the Bills into a contender and setting us up for success within the cap.  Now, we are on to phase 2 in the plan, improving on that success once players are getting paid.  I don't worry about the cap with Beane, but I do believe he needs to adjust his team to compensate for our known opportunities.

 

Scheme - I'm not picking on one particular coordinator, but this team has a clear scheme opportunity.  If you disagree, let me present you with this.  Von Miller goes out, and we can no longer generate a pass rush that gets to the quarterback.  The Bills can't seem to find a quality receiver outside of Diggs and sometimes Davis, to the point we brought back Smoke and Beasley.  Yet, we release Hodgins who makes an immediate impact for the Giants.  Hughes, whom the FO deemed was done, had a very solid season in Houston with no support around him.  The Bills play teams with makeshift quarterbacks, but still find ways to get guys open and play us to the wire.  We played a decimated Bengals offensive line but still couldn't get to Joe Burrow.  The Chiefs got to him all game the next week.  The Bengals got pressure on Josh with only three lineman.  Our offense almost appears to be a two read system, and then let Josh hero ball kick in.  Now granted, the jury is still out regarding if that was Josh making that choice, but most All-22 reviews seem to support scheme issues.  Look at Knox in the first half vs second half.  Did Know forget how to football and then magically figure it out.  Our what about our inconstancy rushing the ball with Cook or Motor?  Stats and game film aside, you could just feel the lack of rhythm on offense.  On defense, once the playoffs kicked in and opposing teams really focus in their weekly strategy, our defense has folded for two straight years.

 

Evolution - We had the greatest show on turf, and then evolution of cover 2.  We had big bodied lineman and rushing attacks, to a spread offense where everyone got tiny on both sides of the ball.  McD ran a great defense in Carolina and started one here as well.  It's based of a very specific scheme of bend, but don't break.  It puts specific players in a position to succeed, while others play a role.  I think there's still a debate as to where our defense is a McD defense that Frazier runs, or if this really is a Frazier defense.  From my memory, any time McD stepped in and assisted with play calling, the defense showed a solid uptick.  Regardless, 5 years of the same defense that gets picked apart in the playoffs is like watching the Yankees.  Built for the regular season, but can't lock it down when it matters.  I am more inclined to give Dorsey a pass in his first year.  I think we saw what Daboll can do with a weaker offensive cast.  Scheme clearly matters and I wonder if Daboll and McD's opposition limited Daboll's ability to run the scheme he wanted here.  No matter what we do, I hope the plan isn't to run back the same schemes.  We need to be more flexible for the regular season as our division evolves, but also ready for the Bengals and Chiefs, who we will be playing for a ticket to the Super Bowl for the next decade.  

 

Free Agency - You always have to build your team through the draft.  You can't spend money on free agency because you'll run out of money.  That's what we always hear and I'm no longer a believer in that philosophy completely.  I believe the draft is your path to cheap labor that fills depth and hopefully evolves into key contributors.  The evaluation of which players will translate their skills to the NFL is such a crap shoot.  However, as we see cap space opportunities and players more likely to take prove it deals, I believe FA focus is something we need to be more involved with.  Outside of our terrible O/D Line evaluations, I think Beane's done an overall great job of bringing in FA contributors.  Look at the Rams, Chiefs, and Eagles.  They did a great job of getting guys on 1 year deals that made a huge difference for their teams.  I think we need to start operating in a similar fashion.  The Chiefs knocked it out on both sides by having most of their 2022 draft contribute in year one, but I attribute that to Reid's scheme as much as anything else.  

 

Hands off McD - In your first few years as a Head Coach, you need to have somethings be familiar to you; and your past success is what earned you the job.  I think McD's next step in his HC evolution is to step back on defense completely, accept that a new defensive scheme is necessary, and let that coach do their job.  In doing so, also lean more into the offensive side to learn and understand to the point of contribution on gameday.  Yes, Reid still runs that offense for the most part, but his system still works and he evolves.  McD doesn't, and that's okay.  But I truly believe McD is best as a coach for the way he handles players, the culture, and demeanor.  We don't need his defensive mind anymore, we need him to bring in coaches with schemes that give us the best chance to win.  Frazier not getting a HC interview this year tells you that the rest of the league feels the same way about our defense, stats aside.  

 

With all that being said, I figured might as well talk about players too.  I'm not going deep, but I think that all options should be on the table for the offensive and defensive line.  If we can give Josh 3 full seconds to throw before even considering moving his feet, that would be massive for this offense.  Add to that the threat of a rushing attack and we are good.  On defense, I'm letting Oliver play this year out.  I'm franchise tagging Edmunds and looking for a trade partner.  If they don't think they can find a trade partner, let him walk.  I am not relying on anyone besides Miller, Oliver, Groot, and Jones as a starter next year.  Phillips and Shaq can come back on their min deals, but a FA established guy for a 3rd DE should be a priority (but not through the draft!).  Poyer, while he is amazing for us, just can't be brought back with his salary demands.  Either a FA cheaper option or the draft will need to replace that.  On offense, I'm open to moving Dawkins to RT if needed, but the rest needs to overhauled in FA.  Unless they plan on finally going offensive line in the first two rounds, I don't any more flyers on guys who fell.  They fell for a reason.  Brown, Bates, and Boettger can all compete for jobs, but promised nothing.  Davis can also play out his final year, and with solid receivers going for 20 mil per, I think draft in the first two rounds is key.  Sadly, there's only so many picks in a draft, so an Edmunds or even Oliver trade would be helpful, but I'm hoping Safety, MLB, WR, and O-Line in the first 5 picks, hopefully extra's in the top 3 rounds.

 

That's all I got everyone.  For those that missed the "Thoughts", I apologize.  Maybe I'll feel different next year, but I can honestly say I didn't miss writing them.  I did miss the interactions with everyone on the board, but that still happens in other ways.  I'll still be doing the mock drafts though, so don't worry about that.

Go Bills!!

 

Missed the "Thoughts" Virgil... looked for them and appreciate them.

 

But completely relate to the malaise.

 

Could not put my finger on my own either, but just felt my football currency was spent with all the highs and lows this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

10 hours ago, jkeerie said:

I definitely agree we need help in those areas.  I think we don't create any more holes on defense so we can use the draft for offensive players and get the WR and OL help that we need, and not pay through the nose to bring veterans in at a higher cost.  We are not going to be able to afford high priced veterans.  Beane already said that.   We would be talking about the kind of players we had on the OL this year.  Less than stellar wouldn't you say?   Likely the same at WR.

 

I get it, but this assumes we hit on the picks as day 1 contributors.  I’d rather gave a proven WR , draft OL, and LB or go vet to replace Edmunds.  Otherwise Edmunds contract creates holes elsewhere.  

[jkeerie]

4 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I get it, but this assumes we hit on the picks as day 1 contributors.  I’d rather gave a proven WR , draft OL, and LB or go vet to replace Edmunds.  Otherwise Edmunds contract creates holes elsewhere.  

Not necessarily.  Edmunds being so young would allow them to work a longer contract to spread out the cap hit.  They could make it work if they wanted to.

[Coach Tuesday]

10 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

The only guarantees in life are death and taxes.  Not 1st round MLBs.  Sorry. 

Death, taxes, and Beane throwing his second round pick in the garbage.

[BuffaloRebound]

I’m fine with keeping Edmunds if it’s $15m per year or under.  He’s a good, not great player and will give you at least 5 more good years.  

The problem is the D Line.  You can’t count on Miller being that guy anymore.  They really need a difference maker on the D Line.  Cut Settle, trade Oliver for anything you can get, and go sign Daron Payne.  We desperately need a guy that can draw double teams and free up other guys.  

Then on offense, trade up for the best OT prospect still available in the top 15 picks.  Sign a hammer at RB for under $5m per year.  And go get a vet WR that has a year or 2 left that is chasing a ring.  

[Bill from NYC]

On 2/2/2023 at 10:18 PM, GunnerBill said:

The Bills drafted pretty darn well (among the league's best) 2017-2019. They have drafted less well since. They need a strong draft soon or their best guys will age out and the replacements will not be in the building.

I cannot understand how you, or anyone can make this claim wrt 2017. Yes, Dawkins and Milano were excellent picks. That said, the overall draft was started with stupidity.

 

McDermott had a top 10 pick with Mahomes staring him in the face. What did he do? He got fleeced by Andy Reid and traded all the way down to 27, and for doing so was vastly undercompensated. Now, he did this for what reason? To draft an unspecified defensive back. Why do I use the term "unspecified?" Because no less than 6 DBs were drafted between 10 and 27. That's right.....6! It is ridiculous to think that he was targeting Tre White 17 picks later. 

 

I make the case that McDermott (bad strategy or not) lucked into Tre White. He had no way of knowing that White would be there 17 picks later. This was just a softer version of the awful drafting/dumb philosophy of the ever so sickening Levy/Jauron 1st round debacle in 2006 (Donte Whitner). Of course, the rest of the 2006 draft was also a train wreck (other than Kyle Williams).

After passing on Mahomes, the Bills got even luckier in getting Allen. i am sure that I'm in a huge monority but I have had more than my share of McDermott.  I think that his mistakes are glaring  and his philosophy is misguided.

 

I am sorry if I come off a bit snarky. You are one of the better posters in the 25 years or more that I have been on this board. Nothing here is aimed at you. I am just sick of watching the team I love make the same dumb mistakes over and over.........

 

 

[nosejob]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I cannot understand how you, or anyone can make this claim wrt 2017. Yes, Dawkins and Milano were excellent picks. That said, the overall draft was started with stupidity.

 

McDermott had a top 10 pick with Mahomes staring him in the face. What did he do? He got fleeced by Andy Reid and traded all the way down to 27, and for doing so was vastly undercompensated. Now, he did this for what reason? To draft an unspecified defensive back. Why do I use the term "unspecified?" Because no less than 6 DBs were drafted between 10 and 27. That's right.....6! It is ridiculous to think that he was targeting Tre White 17 picks later. 

 

I make the case that McDermott (bad strategy or not) lucked into Tre White. He had no way of knowing that White would be there 17 picks later. This was just a softer version of the awful drafting/dumb philosophy of the ever so sickening Levy/Jauron 1st round debacle in 2006 (Donte Whitner). Of course, the rest of the 2006 draft was also a train wreck (other than Kyle Williams).

After passing on Mahomes, the Bills got even luckier in getting Allen. i am sure that I'm in a huge monority but I have had more than my share of McDermott.  I think that his mistakes are glaring  and his philosophy is misguided.

 

I am sorry if I come off a bit snarky. You are one of the better posters in the 25 years or more that I have been on this board. Nothing here is aimed at you. I am just sick of watching the team I love make the same dumb mistakes over and over.........

 

 

I believe they made that trade to have the ammo to get their QB the next year, and actually got a great day 1 corner in the process. Mahommes got to sit a year behind Alex Smith while K.C. built a roster. I would have taken Josh at 7 and then jumped Tampa for Vita Vea, but it is what it is. Complaining about past drafts is a waste of time. We passed on Jimmy G., Carr and Wilson, so..... Complaining about schemes, especially defensively is worth discussion.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I cannot understand how you, or anyone can make this claim wrt 2017. Yes, Dawkins and Milano were excellent picks. That said, the overall draft was started with stupidity.

 

McDermott had a top 10 pick with Mahomes staring him in the face. What did he do? He got fleeced by Andy Reid and traded all the way down to 27, and for doing so was vastly undercompensated. Now, he did this for what reason? To draft an unspecified defensive back. Why do I use the term "unspecified?" Because no less than 6 DBs were drafted between 10 and 27. That's right.....6! It is ridiculous to think that he was targeting Tre White 17 picks later. 

 

I make the case that McDermott (bad strategy or not) lucked into Tre White. He had no way of knowing that White would be there 17 picks later. This was just a softer version of the awful drafting/dumb philosophy of the ever so sickening Levy/Jauron 1st round debacle in 2006 (Donte Whitner). Of course, the rest of the 2006 draft was also a train wreck (other than Kyle Williams).

After passing on Mahomes, the Bills got even luckier in getting Allen. i am sure that I'm in a huge monority but I have had more than my share of McDermott.  I think that his mistakes are glaring  and his philosophy is misguided.

 

I am sorry if I come off a bit snarky. You are one of the better posters in the 25 years or more that I have been on this board. Nothing here is aimed at you. I am just sick of watching the team I love make the same dumb mistakes over and over.........

 

 

 

Tre White was a good draft pick. The point about Mahomes is understood, but the Bills got two all pros and a pro bowler out of that draft. That, by any measure, is a good draft.

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Tre White was a good draft pick. The point about Mahomes is understood, but the Bills got two all pros and a pro bowler out of that draft. That, by any measure, is a good draft.

Do you actually think that McDermott was targeting Tre White 17 picks and 6 dbs later?