Scouts, Scheme, Evolution, free agency, and a Hands-Off Coach

[Virgil]

As I sit and think about this past season, and there's a lot to think about, I can't help but find it odd at how little I reacted to our loss against the Bengals.  Maybe, like the team, I was finally worn out from everything that happened and didn't have it in me to get upset.  I think being a Super Bowl favorite was the biggest impact, because those expectations are so unrealistic.  Someone posted that only 1 team in the last 20 years won the Super Bowl that was actually the favorite at the beginning of the year.  That, plus watching our team struggle to put teams away, albeit on an 8 game winning streak, didn't leave me with a lot of optimism against the Bengals.  When I think about why I stopped writing the "Thoughts" each week, I really think the expectations removed the fun for me.  Or maybe I'm just getting older.  I'm in multiple fantasy football leagues, in which I won 3 of them and finished 2nd in another.  Even with that, I think this was my last year playing fantasy football.  So something has changed.

 

So how do we go from the most complete team, who's everyone's Super Bowl favorites, that's winning by double digit scores to a team that is now considered maybe the 3rd best team in the conference with the gap between 4 and 10 closing quickly?

 

Scouts - Correct me if I'm wrong, but GM's rely on their scouts to build their draft boards.  Additionally, most NFL team boards are pretty similar for the first few rounds.  Yes, team doctors and interviews could adjust rankings a little, but 1st through 3rd round grades are typically close amongst teams.  I'm not saying this to give Beane a pass, but I think the context is relevant.  We all know that Beane has struggled with draft success on the offense and defensive lines.  It's easy to point out the successes that other teams have with drafting players at this position, but we all know there's typically more failure than success with most teams.  To me, I want to see the Bills make adjustments with their scouting department who's making these player evaluations.  It feels like every chance we've taken has backfired on us.  Spencer Brown has provided nice quality for how he was acquired, but that's not to say he is a lock to be part of our future.  Same for our defensive line, I think most of us agree that we will vomit in unison if more high draft capitol on the defensive line.  To continue to do so would be the definition of insanity to me.  Beane passed his first major test in getting the Bills into a contender and setting us up for success within the cap.  Now, we are on to phase 2 in the plan, improving on that success once players are getting paid.  I don't worry about the cap with Beane, but I do believe he needs to adjust his team to compensate for our known opportunities.

 

Scheme - I'm not picking on one particular coordinator, but this team has a clear scheme opportunity.  If you disagree, let me present you with this.  Von Miller goes out, and we can no longer generate a pass rush that gets to the quarterback.  The Bills can't seem to find a quality receiver outside of Diggs and sometimes Davis, to the point we brought back Smoke and Beasley.  Yet, we release Hodgins who makes an immediate impact for the Giants.  Hughes, whom the FO deemed was done, had a very solid season in Houston with no support around him.  The Bills play teams with makeshift quarterbacks, but still find ways to get guys open and play us to the wire.  We played a decimated Bengals offensive line but still couldn't get to Joe Burrow.  The Chiefs got to him all game the next week.  The Bengals got pressure on Josh with only three lineman.  Our offense almost appears to be a two read system, and then let Josh hero ball kick in.  Now granted, the jury is still out regarding if that was Josh making that choice, but most All-22 reviews seem to support scheme issues.  Look at Knox in the first half vs second half.  Did Know forget how to football and then magically figure it out.  Our what about our inconstancy rushing the ball with Cook or Motor?  Stats and game film aside, you could just feel the lack of rhythm on offense.  On defense, once the playoffs kicked in and opposing teams really focus in their weekly strategy, our defense has folded for two straight years.

 

Evolution - We had the greatest show on turf, and then evolution of cover 2.  We had big bodied lineman and rushing attacks, to a spread offense where everyone got tiny on both sides of the ball.  McD ran a great defense in Carolina and started one here as well.  It's based of a very specific scheme of bend, but don't break.  It puts specific players in a position to succeed, while others play a role.  I think there's still a debate as to where our defense is a McD defense that Frazier runs, or if this really is a Frazier defense.  From my memory, any time McD stepped in and assisted with play calling, the defense showed a solid uptick.  Regardless, 5 years of the same defense that gets picked apart in the playoffs is like watching the Yankees.  Built for the regular season, but can't lock it down when it matters.  I am more inclined to give Dorsey a pass in his first year.  I think we saw what Daboll can do with a weaker offensive cast.  Scheme clearly matters and I wonder if Daboll and McD's opposition limited Daboll's ability to run the scheme he wanted here.  No matter what we do, I hope the plan isn't to run back the same schemes.  We need to be more flexible for the regular season as our division evolves, but also ready for the Bengals and Chiefs, who we will be playing for a ticket to the Super Bowl for the next decade.  

 

Free Agency - You always have to build your team through the draft.  You can't spend money on free agency because you'll run out of money.  That's what we always hear and I'm no longer a believer in that philosophy completely.  I believe the draft is your path to cheap labor that fills depth and hopefully evolves into key contributors.  The evaluation of which players will translate their skills to the NFL is such a crap shoot.  However, as we see cap space opportunities and players more likely to take prove it deals, I believe FA focus is something we need to be more involved with.  Outside of our terrible O/D Line evaluations, I think Beane's done an overall great job of bringing in FA contributors.  Look at the Rams, Chiefs, and Eagles.  They did a great job of getting guys on 1 year deals that made a huge difference for their teams.  I think we need to start operating in a similar fashion.  The Chiefs knocked it out on both sides by having most of their 2022 draft contribute in year one, but I attribute that to Reid's scheme as much as anything else.  

 

Hands off McD - In your first few years as a Head Coach, you need to have somethings be familiar to you; and your past success is what earned you the job.  I think McD's next step in his HC evolution is to step back on defense completely, accept that a new defensive scheme is necessary, and let that coach do their job.  In doing so, also lean more into the offensive side to learn and understand to the point of contribution on gameday.  Yes, Reid still runs that offense for the most part, but his system still works and he evolves.  McD doesn't, and that's okay.  But I truly believe McD is best as a coach for the way he handles players, the culture, and demeanor.  We don't need his defensive mind anymore, we need him to bring in coaches with schemes that give us the best chance to win.  Frazier not getting a HC interview this year tells you that the rest of the league feels the same way about our defense, stats aside.  

 

With all that being said, I figured might as well talk about players too.  I'm not going deep, but I think that all options should be on the table for the offensive and defensive line.  If we can give Josh 3 full seconds to throw before even considering moving his feet, that would be massive for this offense.  Add to that the threat of a rushing attack and we are good.  On defense, I'm letting Oliver play this year out.  I'm franchise tagging Edmunds and looking for a trade partner.  If they don't think they can find a trade partner, let him walk.  I am not relying on anyone besides Miller, Oliver, Groot, and Jones as a starter next year.  Phillips and Shaq can come back on their min deals, but a FA established guy for a 3rd DE should be a priority (but not through the draft!).  Poyer, while he is amazing for us, just can't be brought back with his salary demands.  Either a FA cheaper option or the draft will need to replace that.  On offense, I'm open to moving Dawkins to RT if needed, but the rest needs to overhauled in FA.  Unless they plan on finally going offensive line in the first two rounds, I don't any more flyers on guys who fell.  They fell for a reason.  Brown, Bates, and Boettger can all compete for jobs, but promised nothing.  Davis can also play out his final year, and with solid receivers going for 20 mil per, I think draft in the first two rounds is key.  Sadly, there's only so many picks in a draft, so an Edmunds or even Oliver trade would be helpful, but I'm hoping Safety, MLB, WR, and O-Line in the first 5 picks, hopefully extra's in the top 3 rounds.

 

That's all I got everyone.  For those that missed the "Thoughts", I apologize.  Maybe I'll feel different next year, but I can honestly say I didn't miss writing them.  I did miss the interactions with everyone on the board, but that still happens in other ways.  I'll still be doing the mock drafts though, so don't worry about that.

Go Bills!!

Edited February 3, 2023 by Virgil

[jahnyc]

All good points, but the the things you note under "Scheme" are so difficult to understand and need to be figured out if the Bills are going to have future success.  

[jkeerie]

The only thing I really disagree with is Edmunds.  I think he makes a big difference in limiting passing to the middle of the Bills defense.  He played his way to a new contract and with his youth could be signed to a longer term deal that would spread the cap out over a longer period.  Definitely agree that Oliver and Gabe need to prove themselves this year.

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, jkeerie said:

The only thing I really disagree with is Edmunds.  I think he makes a big difference in limiting passing to the middle of the Bills defense.  He played his way to a new contract and with his youth could be signed to a longer term deal that would spread the cap out over a longer period.  Definitely agree that Oliver and Gabe need to prove themselves this year.

Edmunds is a contributor to me.  He shows flashes, but don’t demand the “playmaker” money he is likely looking for.   It’s more about the financials than anything else for me 

[jkeerie]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

Edmunds is a contributor to me.  He shows flashes, but don’t demand the “playmaker” money he is likely looking for.   It’s more about the financials than anything else for me 

That's why I think they can make the financials work with a longer deal given his youth.  That will also allow the Bills to focus on WR and OL early in the draft.  Getting WR and OL help through the draft will definitely assist with cap management.

[LABILLBACKER]

Our DL and OL scouts must be real knuckle daggers. At this point I don't trust anyone anymore picking pass rushers. Just spend some money and buy a proven commodity.

     I think Sean and Beane will always get a lifetime pass from many fans for getting out of the drought and getting Josh. But beyond these 2 acts, I don't feel optimistic about their abilities anymore. 

     It's going to take some extremely creative salary restructures to free up 20+ to spend.  Hopefully a reasonable trade arises for Edmunds but if not I have no problem letting 49, 21 & 26 walk. If Ken & Leslie don't turn things around they're both gone after 23. We've kinda wasted Josh's younger more athletic first 5. We can't afford to wiff on these next 5.

 

Thx for the effort Virgil. Totally understand your reason for ending the write ups. This season was exhausting. 

[WhoTom]

Good post, Virgil. I agree with most of it, but I'm hoping they find a way to keep Edmunds the same way they kept Milano when we were all pretty sure he'd get more on the market. Edmunds may not come up with a lot of flashy plays, but I think his role on the defense would be hard to fill.

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

Good assessment.  And kudos for taking the time and effort to document your thoughts.

My view, regardless of the area, is a lack of progression and innovation by the coaching staff and front office.  Its like they put a "process" in place 4/5 years ago and have failed to adjust and tune it using experience, data, and learnings either good or bad.  They simply repeat the same script every season which fails in the playoffs at more or less the same place and under similar circumstances.  A failure to adopt to changing conditions given better information.  All ways to say they never make any fundamental changes or adjustments.  This dog just doesn't learn new tricks.

 

 

.

[TampaBillsJunkie]

3 hours ago, jkeerie said:

The only thing I really disagree with is Edmunds.  I think he makes a big difference in limiting passing to the middle of the Bills defense.  He played his way to a new contract and with his youth could be signed to a longer term deal that would spread the cap out over a longer period.  Definitely agree that Oliver and Gabe need to prove themselves this year.

 

Excellent write up Virgil. I'm with you 98% and I did miss the weekly reports.  You always have a good analytical take on the game and you are spot on with the scouting. Something is amiss.

But, I'm in the Keerie camp on Edmunds too. There's something about "long" athletic guys that they want in this defense.  Which is probably why they went with Elam at CB.  Being able to cover and get your arms up and around somebody is vital now that contact is so limited in the passing game.  

 

Edmunds has room to get a lot better. He's young. He just needs a bit more mental recognition and killer instinct for tackling.

 

Where I am 100% with you is the dire need for a scheme change on defense. We need more press coverage, taking WR's out of their routes early as well as more pressure to the QB and disguising where that pressure is coming from. 

 

The offense needs some tuning up as we all know from the whopping 10 we tagged on the Bengals D.

 

Thanks for your insight and coverage on the Bills. Hopefully we circle the wagons.

 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by TampaBillsJunkie

[RyanC883]

thanks for the write up.  Hopefully we get impactful WR, OT, C/G in first 3. 

[GunnerBill]

It's not totally accurate on the way draft boards are built. 

 

People imagine that teams have like 300 draft eligible players literally ranked 1 through 300. They don't. Most teams have boards with between 120 and 150 players. And they do differ. In some cases drastically. There are the short board teams (the Pats are 1) who typically have fewer than 100 players on their board. I actually suspect, based just on some of their drafting method, though I don't know that the Brandon Beane Bills fall on the smaller side draft board wise.

 

I would say the "consensus" point among draft boards differs each year but on average the first 30-40 players are closer to a consensus. But even then... Seattle thought LJ Collier was a first round pick. The Patriots thought Cole Strange was. The Saints thought Payton Turner was. These strange picks happen because the consensus is much less than I think some fans imagine. 

 

There are all sorts of reasons a guy who might be a consensus top 40 player might not be on an individual team board. The most obvious is injury. The same guy might have an injury assessed by three teams. The first might decide it is not sufficiently serious to change their grade. The second might decide it is sufficiently serious that they downgrade him. The third might feel even more seriously and remove him from the board entirely. 

 

The second most obvious is character. There are the obvious red flags.... Joe Mixon is in the news today (his career might be over) and his was a sufficiently serious red flag he was off most boards the year he came out. Other players won't have DV issues, or drugs issues, or firearms issues.... but might just be a bad character fit. I talked recently in another thread about the Bills and Geno Smith in 2013. Buddy Nix, Russ Brandon, Doug Whaley and Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett as the brains trust flew out to West Virginia. Wined and dined him, spent a day with him and said "no way we can pick this young man." He went from being their presumptive 1st round pick to off their board entirely because his character (immaturaty, lack of preparedness) turned them off. Teams meet players at the shrine game, the Senior Bowl, the Combine, pro days, top 30 visits.... a player who interviews badly can be off a board. 

 

The third reason is scheme fit. Some of these are obvious ones - a smaller, college OLB who is just a pass rusher and can't hold his own with his hand in the dirt at the point of attack and isn't good enough in coverage to transition to an off the ball linebacker spot is not likely to be on the board of any 4-3 team. To a 3-4 team though if that guy can be a situational pass rusher he might worth a day 2 pick. The guy I always go to for this example is Terell Lewis who the Rams selected in the 3rd round in 2020 out of Alabama. I was told by someone I sometimes converse with about the draft who was a scouting intern for a team that plays a 4-3 and has been pretty successful in recent years (and is not the Bills) that the GM of the team in question told him "Lewis is worthless to us." He has ended up not being a particularly good player and was cut by the Rams midway through this year but that is not the point. To one team he was a 3rd round pick. To another they wouldn't even have taken him as an UDFA. 

 

But the 4-3, 3-4 linebacker example is only the tip of it. Take the Dolphins who (until firing Josh Boyer) played their corners in more man to man than anyone in the league. Corners who are zone only guys will have been totally off their board. There is no point devaluing them because it doesn't matter if they have taken Martin Emerson (Browns picked in round 3 last year) in round 3 or round 7. If he can't hold up in man he can't play in their defense. Or take Tyler Smith - considered by some a reach when the Cowboys took him in round 1. He had a very solid rookie year playing some tackle and some guard but he was only a fit for a power based man blocking scheme. You'd have never seen him go in round 1 to a Shanahan style offensive team. He lacks the requisite lateral quickness to effectively operate in a stretch zone. Some teams running that style of offense may have had him on the board, but downgraded, many will not have had him on there at all. 

 

And finally there are those guys that don't meet physical profiles. Some teams are more stringent on this than others. We know the Bills have a specific thing about DB arm length. Tackle arm length is the one I run into most when speaking to people. Others only want receivers who can run a certain speed. Those physical profiles are less reasons to take guys off boards (though they will sometimes) but more reasons to devalue guys on the board. And certainly once you get past the first 40 or 50 picks that can mix draft boards up some. 

 

And then you have the wildcard decisions... and the Bills made one of those with AJ Epenesea. I would love to sit down with Beane and honestly ask him when they turned in the card did they already know they wanted to strip him down and rebuild him from a college power rusher to an NFL speed rusher. Or, remember it was a covid year no combine etc, did they just realise when they got him in the building that he was not what they thought they were getting and have to pivot to plan B? You get those position / style change moments sometimes where a team will decide they have seen something different in a guy and it affects the value. 

 

So I tend to reject the "draft is just a crapshoot" argument. It is not a science, not at all, but it is a place where the good teams can significantly separate themselves. The Bills drafted pretty darn well (among the league's best) 2017-2019. They have drafted less well since. They need a strong draft soon or their best guys will age out and the replacements will not be in the building.

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So I tend to reject the "draft is just a crapshoot" argument. It is not a science, not at all, but it is a place where the good teams can significantly separate themselves. The Bills drafted pretty darn well (among the league's best) 2017-2019. They have drafted less well since. They need a strong draft soon or their best guys will age out and the replacements will not be in the building.

 

 

Excellent post.

 

The simple answer to why they drafted well from 2017-2019 was, IMO, because they had enough needs that it was still easy to align need with BPA.

 

Since then.......less needs........but still drafting for need. 🤷‍♂️

 

[newcam2012]

5 hours ago, jahnyc said:

All good points, but the the things you note under "Scheme" are so difficult to understand and need to be figured out if the Bills are going to have future success.  

I just don't think Fraizer or Dorsey are going to have a much different scheme. 

5 hours ago, jkeerie said:

That's why I think they can make the financials work with a longer deal given his youth.  That will also allow the Bills to focus on WR and OL early in the draft.  Getting WR and OL help through the draft will definitely assist with cap management.

Edmunds isn't a game changer. He very rarely makes big plays. Never gets a turnover. 

 

He's solid and the Bills defense suffers when he's out. However, I think the Bills can find a solid replacement for way less. He doesn't deserve top dollar money. 

[BillsVet]

15 hours ago, Virgil said:

Hands of McD - In your first few years as a Head Coach, you need to have somethings be familiar to you; and your past success is what earned you the job.  I think McD's next step in his HC evolution is to step back on defense completely, accept that a new defensive scheme is necessary, and let that coach do their job.  In doing so, also lean more into the offensive side to learn and understand to the point of contribution on gameday.  Yes, Reid still runs that offense for the most part, but his system still works and he evolves.  McD doesn't, and that's okay.  But I truly believe McD is best as a coach for the way he handles players, the culture, and demeanor.  We don't need his defensive mind anymore, we need him to bring in coaches with schemes that give us the best chance to win.  Frazier not getting a HC interview this year tells you that the rest of the league feels the same way about our defense, stats aside.  

 

He's had chances to adapt, particularly with Josh's ascendance into a franchise QB and did not.  Perhaps he has an epiphany this off-season, but I doubt it.  

 

It's surprising how 6 years into the McD regime the offense features misaligned personnel or they avoid investing in certain areas.  Or, how they continue doubling down on defense in spite of how the league rules emphasize offensive production.  

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

9 paragraphs and I agree with most of it

 

Could have summed it up with McDermott is not good enough. Its his defense, it's his drafting of defensive players, and it is his fault we aren't good enough. 

We are wasting the best QB in franchise history on a coach and scheme that fails/chokes in the biggest moments. 

[SoCal Deek]

Based solely on what I’ve read here and have seen following the playoff melt down. I see nothing changing next year. At least nothing of any consequence anyway. The Bills will be very competitive again but fall short…again. Too many mediocre players to paper them all over without a serious change of coaching scheme/strategy. So with no real cap money to spend, this had better be one home run of a draft! 

[Simon Says]

It would more effective to stick to one topic per post. These novellas tend to be self-indulgent and lacking in coverage and inspiration of any one thought.

Try writing about one topic at a time,and make it intriguing.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Our DL and OL scouts must be real knuckle daggers. At this point I don't trust anyone anymore picking pass rushers. Just spend some money and buy a proven commodity.

     I think Sean and Beane will always get a lifetime pass from many fans for getting out of the drought and getting Josh. But beyond these 2 acts, I don't feel optimistic about their abilities anymore. 

     It's going to take some extremely creative salary restructures to free up 20+ to spend.  Hopefully a reasonable trade arises for Edmunds but if not I have no problem letting 49, 21 & 26 walk. If Ken & Leslie don't turn things around they're both gone after 23. We've kinda wasted Josh's younger more athletic first 5. We can't afford to wiff on these next 5.

 

Thx for the effort Virgil. Totally understand your reason for ending the write ups. This season was exhausting. 

I have lost all faith in them drafting as well especially in first 3rds they have been horrible finding difference maker prospects.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

16 hours ago, Virgil said:

As I sit and think about this past season, and there's a lot to think about, I can't help but find it odd at how little I reacted to our loss against the Bengals.  Maybe, like the team, I was finally worn out from everything that happened and didn't have it in me to get upset.  I think being a Super Bowl favorite was the biggest impact, because those expectations are so unrealistic.  Someone posted that only 1 team in the last 20 years won the Super Bowl that was actually the favorite at the beginning of the year.  That, plus watching our team struggle to put teams away, albeit on an 8 game winning streak, didn't leave me with a lot of optimism against the Bengals.  When I think about why I stopped writing the "Thoughts" each week, I really think the expectations removed the fun for me.  Or maybe I'm just getting older.  I'm in multiple fantasy football leagues, in which I won 3 of them and finished 2nd in another.  Even with that, I think this was my last year playing fantasy football.  So something has changed.

 

So how do we go from the most complete team, who's everyone's Super Bowl favorites, that's winning by double digit scores to a team that is now considered maybe the 3rd best team in the conference with the gap between 4 and 10 closing quickly?

 

Scouts - Correct me if I'm wrong, but GM's rely on their scouts to build their draft boards.  Additionally, most NFL team boards are pretty similar for the first few rounds.  Yes, team doctors and interviews could adjust rankings a little, but 1st through 3rd round grades are typically close amongst teams.  I'm not saying this to give Beane a pass, but I think the context is relevant.  We all know that Beane has struggled with draft success on the offense and defensive lines.  It's easy to point out the successes that other teams have with drafting players at this position, but we all know there's typically more failure than success with most teams.  To me, I want to see the Bills make adjustments with their scouting department who's making these player evaluations.  It feels like every chance we've taken has backfired on us.  Spencer Brown has provided nice quality for how he was acquired, but that's not to say he is a lock to be part of our future.  Same for our defensive line, I think most of us agree that we will vomit in unison if more high draft capitol on the defensive line.  To continue to do so would be the definition of insanity to me.  Beane passed his first major test in getting the Bills into a contender and setting us up for success within the cap.  Now, we are on to phase 2 in the plan, improving on that success once players are getting paid.  I don't worry about the cap with Beane, but I do believe he needs to adjust his team to compensate for our known opportunities.

 

Scheme - I'm not picking on one particular coordinator, but this team has a clear scheme opportunity.  If you disagree, let me present you with this.  Von Miller goes out, and we can no longer generate a pass rush that gets to the quarterback.  The Bills can't seem to find a quality receiver outside of Diggs and sometimes Davis, to the point we brought back Smoke and Beasley.  Yet, we release Hodgins who makes an immediate impact for the Giants.  Hughes, whom the FO deemed was done, had a very solid season in Houston with no support around him.  The Bills play teams with makeshift quarterbacks, but still find ways to get guys open and play us to the wire.  We played a decimated Bengals offensive line but still couldn't get to Joe Burrow.  The Chiefs got to him all game the next week.  The Bengals got pressure on Josh with only three lineman.  Our offense almost appears to be a two read system, and then let Josh hero ball kick in.  Now granted, the jury is still out regarding if that was Josh making that choice, but most All-22 reviews seem to support scheme issues.  Look at Knox in the first half vs second half.  Did Know forget how to football and then magically figure it out.  Our what about our inconstancy rushing the ball with Cook or Motor?  Stats and game film aside, you could just feel the lack of rhythm on offense.  On defense, once the playoffs kicked in and opposing teams really focus in their weekly strategy, our defense has folded for two straight years.

 

Evolution - We had the greatest show on turf, and then evolution of cover 2.  We had big bodied lineman and rushing attacks, to a spread offense where everyone got tiny on both sides of the ball.  McD ran a great defense in Carolina and started one here as well.  It's based of a very specific scheme of bend, but don't break.  It puts specific players in a position to succeed, while others play a role.  I think there's still a debate as to where our defense is a McD defense that Frazier runs, or if this really is a Frazier defense.  From my memory, any time McD stepped in and assisted with play calling, the defense showed a solid uptick.  Regardless, 5 years of the same defense that gets picked apart in the playoffs is like watching the Yankees.  Built for the regular season, but can't lock it down when it matters.  I am more inclined to give Dorsey a pass in his first year.  I think we saw what Daboll can do with a weaker offensive cast.  Scheme clearly matters and I wonder if Daboll and McD's opposition limited Daboll's ability to run the scheme he wanted here.  No matter what we do, I hope the plan isn't to run back the same schemes.  We need to be more flexible for the regular season as our division evolves, but also ready for the Bengals and Chiefs, who we will be playing for a ticket to the Super Bowl for the next decade.  

 

Free Agency - You always have to build your team through the draft.  You can't spend money on free agency because you'll run out of money.  That's what we always hear and I'm no longer a believer in that philosophy completely.  I believe the draft is your path to cheap labor that fills depth and hopefully evolves into key contributors.  The evaluation of which players will translate their skills to the NFL is such a crap shoot.  However, as we see cap space opportunities and players more likely to take prove it deals, I believe FA focus is something we need to be more involved with.  Outside of our terrible O/D Line evaluations, I think Beane's done an overall great job of bringing in FA contributors.  Look at the Rams, Chiefs, and Eagles.  They did a great job of getting guys on 1 year deals that made a huge difference for their teams.  I think we need to start operating in a similar fashion.  The Chiefs knocked it out on both sides by having most of their 2022 draft contribute in year one, but I attribute that to Reid's scheme as much as anything else.  

 

Hands of McD - In your first few years as a Head Coach, you need to have somethings be familiar to you; and your past success is what earned you the job.  I think McD's next step in his HC evolution is to step back on defense completely, accept that a new defensive scheme is necessary, and let that coach do their job.  In doing so, also lean more into the offensive side to learn and understand to the point of contribution on gameday.  Yes, Reid still runs that offense for the most part, but his system still works and he evolves.  McD doesn't, and that's okay.  But I truly believe McD is best as a coach for the way he handles players, the culture, and demeanor.  We don't need his defensive mind anymore, we need him to bring in coaches with schemes that give us the best chance to win.  Frazier not getting a HC interview this year tells you that the rest of the league feels the same way about our defense, stats aside.  

 

With all that being said, I figured might as well talk about players too.  I'm not going deep, but I think that all options should be on the table for the offensive and defensive line.  If we can give Josh 3 full seconds to throw before even considering moving his feet, that would be massive for this offense.  Add to that the threat of a rushing attack and we are good.  On defense, I'm letting Oliver play this year out.  I'm franchise tagging Edmunds and looking for a trade partner.  If they don't think they can find a trade partner, let him walk.  I am not relying on anyone besides Miller, Oliver, Groot, and Jones as a starter next year.  Phillips and Shaq can come back on their min deals, but a FA established guy for a 3rd DE should be a priority (but not through the draft!).  Poyer, while he is amazing for us, just can't be brought back with his salary demands.  Either a FA cheaper option or the draft will need to replace that.  On offense, I'm open to moving Dawkins to RT if needed, but the rest needs to overhauled in FA.  Unless they plan on finally going offensive line in the first two rounds, I don't any more flyers on guys who fell.  They fell for a reason.  Brown, Bates, and Boettger can all compete for jobs, but promised nothing.  Davis can also play out his final year, and with solid receivers going for 20 mil per, I think draft in the first two rounds is key.  Sadly, there's only so many picks in a draft, so an Edmunds or even Oliver trade would be helpful, but I'm hoping Safety, MLB, WR, and O-Line in the first 5 picks, hopefully extra's in the top 3 rounds.

 

That's all I got everyone.  For those that missed the "Thoughts", I apologize.  Maybe I'll feel different next year, but I can honestly say I didn't miss writing them.  I did miss the interactions with everyone on the board, but that still happens in other ways.  I'll still be doing the mock drafts though, so don't worry about that.

Go Bills!!

I agree with nearly everything u said. I hope when it comes to the draft the Bills adjust there philosophies to draft bpa at every position except for QB. In free agency they can fill the holes . If they follow this philosophy they will find more difference making talent to build around long term. It’s hard enough to draft to fill holes painting yourself in a corner at certain positions. They can also use the trade market whether it’s in off-season or in season to add to the roster. 
 

This is the way Howie Roseman and John Lynch operate the Eagles and 49ers have the best rosters in the NFL by far I would love for Beane to get better at all 3 phases of building. 

[RyanC883]

Alright, I tried to get an impact WR, OT, and C/G in the first three rounds.  No clue how it went after that.  It did result in me drafting a WR higher than he likely goes, but this kid is fast and productive, so I'm not too worried.  He looks like a day 1 weapon.  Also happy with the T and C/G.  What do you all think, particularly the draft gurus.