Looking at our options to rebuild the o-line in 2023

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

They did sign for less. Both in total money AND guaranteed money. Cap amounts are a formulaic rule based on many factors including structuring and years and not only the total/guaranteed amount you pay the player.

 

 

You forgot that we would have saved $4.2M in cap for not signing Saffold and $8M in cap for not signing Morse and $5.15M for not signing Von and almost $2M for not signing Quess.

 

So let's do some math here.

 

Humphrey: 1.3M

Collins: 4.6M

Daniels: 4.2M

Scherff: 7.7M

 

Total of: 17.8M

 

Now lets subtract the players we would NOT have:

 

17.8M

- 4.2M for Saffold

- 8.0M for Morse

- 1.8M for Quessenbery (since Bates would become the backup T)

- 5.15M for Von

---------------

= $1.35M SURPLUS

 

We would have saved $1,350,000 more (not spent 12.5M more) in CAP for a brand new o-line in 2022.

 

And that's not including the fact that you missed my comment in the original post saying I wouldn't have signed Scherff. I would have just used Bates in hi LG spot. 

 

 

OK, let's do some math again.

 

Humphrey: 1.5M

Collins: 9.4M

Daniels: 11.2M

Scherff: 20.9M

 

Total of: 43M

 

Now lets subtract the players we would NOT have:

 

43M

- 4M for whatever player they would have replace Saffold with

- 11.1M for Morse

- 1.8M for whatever player they would have replaced Quessenberry with

- 18.6M for Von

---------------

= $7.5M

 

We would have spent $7.5M more (not 24M more) in CAP for a brand new o-line in 2023.

 

Now, being that Beane's contracts have been well designed, he likely adds on bonus years for Schlerff and Daniels, just like he did with Von. That's the only reason Von's cap number is reasonable, even if his total number is not. If Beane did that, the $7.2M all but disappears altogether.

 

Personally, as I said in the original post, I wouldn't have signed Schlerff. I would have slid Bates into LG like we did in late 2021 and he did great. Doing that REALLY obliterates any cost overruns. That would bring Year 1 savings to almost $9M and year 2 savings to around $12M.

 

And the line would have been:

 

LT: Dawkins

LG: Bates

C- Humphrey

RG: Daniels

RT: Collins

 

Long story short, your numbers were way off.

 

 

Nope. No one else posted this, because the other people in this thread read my post for what it said, not what you wanted it to say. They also didn't forget to subtract numerous players on the team that wouldn't be here if we signed an entire new o-line.

 

And for what it’s worth, I personally would have been fine with them even spending $10M more in cap for a brand new o-line rather than having, say, Poyer, who I really like but is worth less than an entire o-line.

Snap Thurman

[Thurman#1]

On 2/2/2023 at 11:42 PM, Einstein said:

 

They did sign for less. Both in total money AND guaranteed money. Cap amounts are a formulaic rule based on many factors including structuring and years and not only the total/guaranteed amount you pay the player.

 

 

You forgot that we would have saved $4.2M in cap for not signing Saffold and $8M in cap for not signing Morse and $5.15M for not signing Von and almost $2M for not signing Quess.

 

So let's do some math here.

 

Humphrey: 1.3M

Collins: 4.6M

Daniels: 4.2M

Scherff: 7.7M

 

Total of: 17.8M

 

Now lets subtract the players we would NOT have:

 

17.8M

- 4.2M for Saffold

- 8.0M for Morse

- 1.8M for Quessenbery (since Bates would become the backup T)

- 5.15M for Von

---------------

= $1.35M SURPLUS

 

We would have saved $1,350,000 more (not spent 12.5M more) in CAP for a brand new o-line in 2022.

 

And that's not including the fact that you missed my comment in the original post saying I wouldn't have signed Scherff. I would have just used Bates in hi LG spot. 

 

 

OK, let's do some math again.

 

Humphrey: 1.5M

Collins: 9.4M

Daniels: 11.2M

Scherff: 20.9M

 

Total of: 43M

 

Now lets subtract the players we would NOT have:

 

43M

- 4M for whatever player they would have replace Saffold with

- 11.1M for Morse

- 1.8M for whatever player they would have replaced Quessenberry with

- 18.6M for Von

---------------

= $7.5M

 

We would have spent $7.5M more (not 24M more) in CAP for a brand new o-line in 2023.

 

Now, being that Beane's contracts have been well designed, he likely adds on bonus years for Schlerff and Daniels, just like he did with Von. That's the only reason Von's cap number is reasonable, even if his total number is not. If Beane did that, the $7.2M all but disappears altogether.

 

Personally, as I said in the original post, I wouldn't have signed Schlerff. I would have slid Bates into LG like we did in late 2021 and he did great. Doing that REALLY obliterates any cost overruns. That would bring Year 1 savings to almost $9M and year 2 savings to around $12M.

 

And the line would have been:

 

LT: Dawkins

LG: Bates

C- Humphrey

RG: Daniels

RT: Collins

 

Long story short, your numbers were way off.

 

 

Nope. No one else posted this, because the other people in this thread read my post for what it said, not what you wanted it to say. They also didn't forget to subtract numerous players on the team that wouldn't be here if we signed an entire new o-line.

 

And for what it’s worth, I personally would have been fine with them even spending $10M more in cap for a brand new o-line rather than having, say, Poyer, who I really like but is worth less than an entire o-line.

 

 

Please. Very very fudgy numbers there. You were the one who implied it was a one-for-four swap that would have cost the same. It would not have.

 

It was you who compared Von Miller to those five guys. You who said "Would you trade Von for a brand new OL?" Again, those don't line up.

 

Now you're trying to pretend that if they'd drafted Humphrey then they would not have extended or kept Morse, which is nonsense. They would at least have kept him for competing with and mentoring Humphrey for 2022. When does McDermott draft a rookie and not plan to feed him in slowly? Most coaches do it that way, and for good reason. But at center? No way they would have done that on a year that looked so good looking forward. Morse would have been here and he would have cost about $9M against the cap in 2022. That's about what he'd have cost even without signing the extension. And they absolutely would have kept Morse even if they didn't extend him.  

 

In 2023, you throw in $4M in savings in your scheme for a completely theoretical person, whoever they'd have replaced Saffold with. Nonsense. You don't know who that would have been or more particularly how much he'd have cost. Could easily have been a draft choice from this year costing much less, or a cheaper FA. Or a more expensive one, for that matter. But you take a pure wild-ass guess of money and throw it in as if it were a fact. Pure crap adding that in.

 

Would have been at the least $7M extra money in 2022, when we were only about $1.9M over the cap. In 2023, somewhere around $8 to $12M in a year when we now $20.511M over the cap. But you spent $7M extra in 2022 so the situation in 2023 would now have been even worse if we'd spent that extra money last year and had to somehow kick cans down the road.

 

And plenty more in 2024, though assuming they hadn't extended Morse.

 

And more to the point, all that extra money would have resulted in Von not being there. We saw what Von being injured did to the pass rush this year. Nearly destroyed it.

 

You do all of this with the extreme benefit of hindsight, picking four OLs who you saw in 2022 before you proposed this. Real moves don't have the benefit of hindsight.

 

Would've loved to have drafted Creed. At the time I was campaigning for OL in the first two or so rounds. The FAs, particularly together, were just too expensive for this team at that time and into the future, particularly when you include not having Von, who was a huge difference-maker in this defense.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Thurman#1

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/1/2023 at 4:34 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I know Boogie Basham was a bad pick but the obsession with Creed Humphrey on this board is approaching the obsession with runnin' bax.

 

Center is the easiest position to fill on the line.........there is a good chance Creed Humphrey will price himself out of KC with his play.........just like Rodney Hudson and Mitch Morse before him.    

 

Who cares if he gets priced out. You get him free for 5 years. 

[GreggTX]

If we have only 1 new starter on our 28th ranked OL next season, that tells me that this team doesn't know how to win. I don't want to see us go pass on 1st, gadget play on 2nd, pass on 3rd all year which puts it all on Josh. We need upgrades or at least competition for WR2 and Slot Receiver, but we REALLY need a big, nasty OL that can take control of the LOS. If that means parting ways with other talent, so be it. I'm tired of "good enough". 5th worst OL in the NFL is nowhere near good enough if you want to win the SB. Go look at the PFF ratings for the 2 SB teams. That's what you need. They need to find a way. And for God's sake, get us a RB that can handle 20 carries a game and move the pile. Our offense is 1 dimensional. That won't get it done.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/2/2023 at 4:05 AM, FeelingOnYouboty said:

1. John Michael Schmitz-C Minnesota 6’4 320

 

3. Cooper Beebee-G Kansas State 6’3 320

 

Sign Evan Brown-G Lions

Sign Taylor Lewan-T Titans

 

4 new starters on our OL. That immediately turns us into a top OL unit in one off-season.

Our backups would be Doyle, Boetteger, Bates and Brown.

 

The Chiefs upgraded their OL in one offseason by trading for Orlando Brown-T signing Joe Thuney-G and Andrew Wylie-T and drafting Creed Humphrey-C and Trey Smith-G.

 

They did that in one off-season after losing the Super Bowl. There’s no excuse for us to be sticking with the Ryan Bates and Spencer Browns of the world let alone Roger Saffold.

Ryan Bates can be a excellent center in hope they move him . 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/3/2023 at 5:39 AM, LABILLBACKER said:

Snap Thurman

 

 

Except, no.

 

They wouldn't have gotten rid of Morse for a rookie at center. If we've discovered anything about this group it's that they tend to feed rookies in slowly, and that they greatly value experience particularly at center. Which makes sense. Morse didn't just play center well, he's improved everyone around him and got them working together well. When he was out, even though the fill-ins did his physical job in an OK fashion though less athletically, but there was an immediate regression of line play across the whole group. If McDermott had let Morse go in that situation, I'd have called the police and asked that they check his bedroom for one of those bodysnatcher pods.

 

If they'd have drafted Humphrey, first, I'd have cheered, but second, they'd almost certainly have put him at guard for a year, if not more, but at least a year. That would have saved them the money of one of those expensive FAs he's saying with hindsight that they should have  brought in.

 

Not to mention his casual invention of a $4M player in 2023 who doesn't exist to bolster his argument. Someone will have to fill that spot, but it could easily be a 2nd round pick costing a mill or so on the cap. Or Ryan Bates who is already on the roster and would require zero extra spending.

 

I'm all for improving the line. Don't mistake me. But his way was unrealistic, was developed only with hindsight, and would have cost quite a bit extra in all three of the years those FAs were signed for, in years when we're already in bad cap shape. I screwed up originally and didn't account for the Bills guys who would have been cut to make room for his additions. But it still would have cost quite a bit extra on the cap all three years.

 

But Von was the missing piece that made this defense better than the sum of its parts. IMO if we'd had him we'd have won both those playoff games at KC. Maybe even this one too, though the whole team played like crap. Mahomes just stepped around our rush and hung in there. Burrow did much the same. Von was greatly missed.

 

 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, GreggTX said:

If we have only 1 new starter on our 28th ranked OL next season, that tells me that this team doesn't know how to win. I don't want to see us go pass on 1st, gadget play on 2nd, pass on 3rd all year which puts it all on Josh. We need upgrades or at least competition for WR2 and Slot Receiver, but we REALLY need a big, nasty OL that can take control of the LOS. If that means parting ways with other talent, so be it. I'm tired of "good enough". 5th worst OL in the NFL is nowhere near good enough if you want to win the SB. Go look at the PFF ratings for the 2 SB teams. That's what you need. They need to find a way. And for God's sake, get us a RB that can handle 20 carries a game and move the pile. Our offense is 1 dimensional. That won't get it done.

 

Youre arguing over one $4M player as if it changes anything. Take that away if you want and you still have a reasonably cost o-line and not much more than Von would have cost if Beane structure them properly like he always does. You’re just one of those people who can’t ever admit they’re wrong. No point in discussing further. Feel free to have the last word - I won’t respond.

[Thurman#1]

26 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Youre arguing over one $4M player as if it changes anything. Take that away if you want and you still have a reasonably cost o-line and not much more than Von would have cost if Beane structure them properly like he always does. You’re just one of those people who can’t ever admit they’re wrong. No point in discussing further. Feel free to have the last word - I won’t respond.

 

 

Of course you won't respond. Why would you? You said it cost the same thing, and you were wrong, and there's no way out of it. If I were trapped into such an awful position as your OP put you in, I personally wouldn't spend ten seconds trying to defend it. Totally understand why you'd stay away, makes total sense.

 

Your plan would cost $7M+ extra in 2022, $8 - $12M extra in 2023, and yet more in 2024.

 

You're in a crappy spot here. It's why you keep moving the goal posts in every post you make on this. Now you're saying it's an O-line at reasonable cost. Even that doesn't make complete sense. For a team with a lot of cap space, yeah, the cost is a bit high, but not outrageous. For a team that as tight against the cap as we are, adding a bunch of costs here is not reasonable at all. On top of taking Von Miller, an absolute difference-maker, out of the mix.

 

You said it was the same cost as Von Miller. You didn't say that you could have an O-line at reasonable cost. 

 

You're the one who created that $4M player out of thin air and then added it into the total to make your argument look better. Not me. You. Don't want people to bother you about $4M? Don't create them out of mid-air.

 

$4M matters plenty to the Bills. Again, they were only $1.9M over the cap last year, and your plan here would've added about $9M to that year's cap before we even consider the 2023 cap and your imaginary $4M.

 

Again, $7M+ extra in 2022, $8 - $12M extra in 2023, and yet more in 2024.

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I find it impossible to believe that the Bills can’t simply draft two starting Guards this year. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Who cares if he gets priced out. You get him free for 5 years. 

 

Free?   They already had Morse under contract.    

 

What good is being cap inexpensive if Humphrey was a backup or you had to eat a fortune in dead money by releasing Morse to give him the job?   

 

The assumption people make around here is that a good center can just move over and play guard well.............my point is that good centers are usually lesser blockers than good guards.   In general, guard>center in terms of pure blocking talent required.

 

For all we know Creed Humphrey wouldn't be worth a sh!t at guard.   Same with Morse.    The highly athletic college LT Ryan Bates might be a pro bowl level center for all we know.......it's said to be his best position(of course)...........but we know he's just meh at guard.   

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I find it impossible to believe that the Bills can’t simply draft two starting Guards this year. 

 

 

Admit it........you thought it was impossible that Cody Ford wouldn't AT LEAST be a good starting guard.

 

The problem is that offensive lineman like the lumbering Ford are generally the least athletic players on the field all during those HS and college years.........just throwing picks at these lesser athletes because they played a lot in college or looked good surrounded by great players doesn't necessarily translate to "problem solved".

 

That's why teams are always taking chances on athletes at the O Line positions even if they know they need years of coaching up.    The Bills OL room is actually full of  very high RAS guys at various stages of their careers like Dawkins, Saffold, Brown, Doyle, Bates and Morse.    Saffold has been an All Pro.   Dawkins and Morse have been very good player in their careers.   The others are works in progress.   I suspect if they were all in their prime together it would be an excellent OL..........but that's why it's hard to put together 5 good OL........they are typically one of the least if not the very least pro ready groups of prospects.......and fans think it's the other way around. 

 

It's actually quite possible that the Bills could throw 4 picks at OL and not get 1 even average starter out of the group as rookies.   

 

 

Edited February 4, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

C Connor McGovern - Didn't miss a snap all season, but is pretty average. Remember when Milano wrecked Mike White and broke his ribs? That was on McGovern. He doesn't handle the blitz well from what I've read. His estimated market value is $12.5M per season. 

Im going to go ahead and say I doubt this is true. 
 

I mean, it is, but not in a way that’s applicable to the guy we signed. 
 

Edited March 13, 2023 by SCBills

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Updating this thread since the Bills signed Connor McGovern. Here is what I wrote about him at the time:

 

 

C Connor McGovern - Didn't miss a snap all season, but is pretty average. Remember when Milano wrecked Mike White and broke his ribs? That was on McGovern. He doesn't handle the blitz well from what I've read. His estimated market value is $12.5M per season. 

 

You got the wrong one...

 

We signed the Dallas one

[Einstein]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

 

You got the wrong one...

 

We signed the Dallas one

 

Yep you caught me before I deleted it haha

Oh well! 

[Moulds 808080]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

Im going to go ahead and say I doubt this is true. 

Yeah wrong guy 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Moulds 808080 said:

Yeah wrong guy 

Imagine the other Connor McGovern reading that Connor McGovern is signing in Buffalo.

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Imagine the other Connor McGovern reading that Connor McGovern is signing in Buffalo.

We need the Spider Man meme right about now 😎

[billsfan89]

McGovern is a nice start, a plug-and-play guard at an average to above-average level who can flex into center if needed. But I would like to see a vet RT even another mid-level player brought in to compete with Spencer Brown and add depth. The Bills from 2019 to 2021 had decent depth on the O-line. In 2022 that depth was lacking. Queese was seemingly the only decent backup. The Bills need to enter into the season with another high-quality IOL depth player, an heir apparent at center for Mitch drafted in rounds 3-5 and a quality RT option to compete with Spencer Brown at a minimum. I would have liked a higher-end guard than McGovern but I can live with it if more depth is added to the O-line as a result of going with a somewhat cheaper option. 

[LABILLBACKER]

28 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

McGovern is a nice start, a plug-and-play guard at an average to above-average level who can flex into center if needed. But I would like to see a vet RT even another mid-level player brought in to compete with Spencer Brown and add depth. The Bills from 2019 to 2021 had decent depth on the O-line. In 2022 that depth was lacking. Queese was seemingly the only decent backup. The Bills need to enter into the season with another high-quality IOL depth player, an heir apparent at center for Mitch drafted in rounds 3-5 and a quality RT option to compete with Spencer Brown at a minimum. I would have liked a higher-end guard than McGovern but I can live with it if more depth is added to the O-line as a result of going with a somewhat cheaper option. 

Quessenberry?....you mean the same guy who practically got Josh's arm torn off. I'll pass on Q, Saffold and Spencer.  Connor should be an upgrade at RG as we slide Bates to LG.  Now we either draft or sign a bigger name for RT.  Brown is only depth.

[Einstein]

Just saw that Ben Powers signed in Denver for only $12M per year. That sucks so much. He is a great linemen and getting better. Would have loved to have him here.