Dust has settled...Alphas look at what lies ahead

[Billsfan1972]

Just saw something interesting.  I was commenting on just how bad the Defense is come the playoffs (and the bend don't break philosophy).

 

I claimed that the only good games the Defense played were vs. Jax (14-7 loss) and then vs. Baltimore (and Lamar didn't play the 4th).  

 

Then I was saying that the NE (no punt game) was exactly how the Defense was built and the results expected.

 

The Bills scored 47 points & had 29 first downs.  KC had 29 & 30 in their two playoff games and Cincy putting up a meagre 27 points had 29.

 

Yep the Bills' coaches certainly do learn. 

  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

18 hours ago, TheCockSportif said:

I agreed with all else that you wrote except for this.  NE is a wildcard with a retread OC, and they will presumably be better. Tua?  Who knows?  Jets?  Probably not, but who knows?

Miami and Jets are already tough opponents, and without a huge QB contract, they will have room to make more moves than us.  If Jets land a QB like a decent to good QB they will be a very good team, and all signs points to them making a push to get one.  Pats have a very good defense.  They also are a good running team.  Adding a real OC and maybe adding some receiving weapons could make them a legit playoff contender this year between that D and run game.

[Dopey]

On 1/30/2023 at 4:02 PM, Airseven said:

Somebody who read that please post a summary.

It’s feeling like year 4 of our Super Bowl run back in the 90’s ? That’s what I got from it. 

[billsfan89]

My ideal “realistic” off season would be to restructure everyone they could to free up about 59 million in cap space and then get Hines to take a pay cut down to 2.5 million (which would put the Bills at 61.2 million in cap space). 
 

Then with the cap space sign Edumonds to a back loaded deal and resign Shaq, J Phillips, Singletary, Keenum and one or two or the ST players. Unfortunately have to let Poyer walk unless the market doesn’t shake out for him and he can be brought back on a one year deal but that isn’t likely.
 

Then the Bills could then likely have some space to play with to sign a quality guard like Dalton Risner and sign a depth guard or tackle. I would then like to see the Bills trade for Jerry Jeudy a 2nd round pick and a future mid round pick should get it done and greatly help out Josh getting a reliable slot WR. That would likely “cap out” the Bills but certainly keep most of the roster intact while addressing a couple of key issues heading into the draft.

 

The Bills could then further address the Oline in round 1 grabbing a RT and then in round 3 grabbing a WR or Guard and then in round 4 adding a center to be the heir apparent for Mitch and solidifying Oline depth. Then spend the later picks on defense to help out the depth and development there as the team invests more on offense.

[transplantbillsfan]

Why are we so far behind Kansas City and Cincinnati?

 

If you think we are this year, you surely did last year, too, right? Afterall, we lost to Kansas City who lost convincingly to Cincinnati.

 

Right?

 

Sorry. Injuries and circumstances were too much for this team to overcome. Hobbled Poyer. No Von. No Hyde. No Daquan Jones--a loss against Cincy many aren't talking about. A 1 armed Jordan Phillips. 3rd string onto 4th string Safety.

 

Yes. I realize there are no offensive players there. Offense is where I expect the upgrades this offseason... namely OL and WR.

 

But no, we aren't that far behind either of those teams. Buffalo was dealt a horrible hand this year.

 

Remember, we still have Josh Allen.

[John from Riverside]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Miami and Jets are already tough opponents, and without a huge QB contract, they will have room to make more moves than us.  If Jets land a QB like a decent to good QB they will be a very good team, and all signs points to them making a push to get one.  Pats have a very good defense.  They also are a good running team.  Adding a real OC and maybe adding some receiving weapons could make them a legit playoff contender this year between that D and run game.

The QB part is a big if everybody talks about landing a good QB there’s only so many QBs to go around that or even good

 

Drafts of crap shoots, whenever it comes to QBs and even if you find one it’s gonna take years before they’re actually playable any QB that doesn’t fall. This timeline is the exception not the rule.

 

I mean take a look in our own division tua is still a concussion protocol Miami has probably ruined him even if he plays he might be damaged. The Jets have nothing. Brady retired so he’s not coming back into the division the Patriots have someone that they absolutely cannot count on.

 

It’s tough I mean those teams overall have more talent than we do, but our unicorn QB trumps all of that

 

Something else being considered here that nobody is talking about people say that last year‘s draft was a bust or at least I have heard that here. Well, I say that there are teams in last year‘s draft that are just waiting for their turn to shine whenever you have established vets in front of you on a playoff team they’re not gonna get playing time 

 

People looked at the Chiefs draft and how well they did on the defensive side of the ball. Well, they had no choice but to play those guys, and even then, overall their defense wasn’t that good it made key plays at opportune moments and was backed up by a unicorn QB, and one of the best  lcoaches in the league 

 

We will probably win our division again. Next year. My question will be. Did they fix the pass protection and the running game on this team going into the playoffs enough we’re talking about how weather doesn’t matter when there’s snow on the ground you have to be able to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. You have to be able to get hard first downs and you have to be able to stick with it.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Why are we so far behind Kansas City and Cincinnati?

 

If you think we are this year, you surely did last year, too, right? Afterall, we lost to Kansas City who lost convincingly to Cincinnati.

 

Right?

 

Sorry. Injuries and circumstances were too much for this team to overcome. Hobbled Poyer. No Von. No Hyde. No Daquan Jones--a loss against Cincy many aren't talking about. A 1 armed Jordan Phillips. 3rd string onto 4th string Safety.

 

Yes. I realize there are no offensive players there. Offense is where I expect the upgrades this offseason... namely OL and WR.

 

But no, we aren't that far behind either of those teams. Buffalo was dealt a horrible hand this year.

 

Remember, we still have Josh Allen.

 

Yea we are not "so far behind." 

 

Judging the Bills on 1 game against Cincy where they played their worst game all season and concluding they are miles behind the other two is stupid. Do I think given the other two have made the ladt two AFCCGs it is legit to say "the Bills are the 3rd wheel right now?" Sure. It is. But we are still in that top group of AFC teams with those two. We turned in a clunker in a big spot. Horrible. Frustrating. But it happens. 

 

They have to do a bit more remaking of the roster this offseason than the past couple. But KC have done that the last two offseasons and shown if you hit on some draft picks you can soon replenish. 

 

People need to stay calm and not overreact to one football game.

[GETTOTHE50]

On 1/30/2023 at 4:31 PM, I am the egg man said:

Another dust settling thread?

 

I pledge to not start another.

atleast until the dust settles 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea we are not "so far behind." 

 

Judging the Bills on 1 game against Cincy where they played their worst game all season and concluding they are miles behind the other two is stupid. Do I think given the other two have made the ladt two AFCCGs it is legit to say "the Bills are the 3rd wheel right now?" Sure. It is. But we are still in that top group of AFC teams with those two. We turned in a clunker in a big spot. Horrible. Frustrating. But it happens. 

 

They have to do a bit more remaking of the roster this offseason than the past couple. But KC have done that the last two offseasons and shown if you hit on some draft picks you can soon replenish. 

 

People need to stay calm and not overreact to one football game.

It wasn’t just one football game.  They looked equally as bad, if not worse, defensively vs Cincy the first partial game.  And our team was not running smooth since the KC game.  More importantly it’s been 4 straight bad playoff exits.  
 

And now we are likely losing multiple key starters this year and running back the same defensive scheme that has surrendered 107 points and 1403 to KC and Cincy the past 3 playoff losses the last 3 years.  We don’t have a lot of cap space either to address current significant needs and potential holes from potential player losses this year like Poyer, Edmunds, Devin, and Morse.  Not to mention our 2 most expensive defensive players are coming off ACL recovery or tears, and Von is doing it at age 34.

 

So I think heading into the offseason we are still 3rd best team, but we are going to have more significant needs and holes that previous years with a tight cap.  We are definitely behind KC and Cincy already.  And Cincy has a lot of cap space to potentially widen the gap on us.  
 

Meanwhile, all 3 of our divisional opponents are currently sitting with more cap space to keep working to close the gap on us.  
 

Yes, we will be favorites to win our division, but it’s far from a sure thing next year.  
 

NOTE:  If we bring Frazier back, which it looks like we are, then even with a great offseason we are still behind KC and Cincy.  How any DC can keep his job after 4 consecutive defensive failures in the playoff is beyond me.  Blew 2 score lead against Houston.  Then gave up 107 points and 1403 yards to KC and Cincy last 3 years, and one of those game was a snow storm against a depleted OL (Cincy).  Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT debacle last year.  

Edited February 2, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Why are we so far behind Kansas City and Cincinnati?

 

If you think we are this year, you surely did last year, too, right? Afterall, we lost to Kansas City who lost convincingly to Cincinnati.

 

Right?

 

Sorry. Injuries and circumstances were too much for this team to overcome. Hobbled Poyer. No Von. No Hyde. No Daquan Jones--a loss against Cincy many aren't talking about. A 1 armed Jordan Phillips. 3rd string onto 4th string Safety.

 

Yes. I realize there are no offensive players there. Offense is where I expect the upgrades this offseason... namely OL and WR.

 

But no, we aren't that far behind either of those teams. Buffalo was dealt a horrible hand this year.

 

Remember, we still have Josh Allen.

Daqoun Jones being out in that game was actually huge.

[Ga boy]

Cmon guys, the key to next year and the years after is JA17.  I’m a huge fan, but he must flip the script:  change from 50% short and intermediate passes and 50% long passes to 75% short and intermediate passes and 25% long passes.  I would recommend that he overloads on film study of Brady and Montana if he wants to be among the best someday.  Also, don’t remember these two taking the hits.  JA17 must flip the script.  Otherwise, when the dust settles in 10 years he will be in the category with Fonts, Rivers, and Marino instead of Brady and Montana.  Sure he needs a better O line, but shorter, quicker passes would work wonders.  Can someone tell his supervisors to write this into his job description??

[dave mcbride]

53 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It wasn’t just one football game.  They looked equally as bad, if not worse, defensively vs Cincy the first partial game.  And our team was not running smooth since the KC game.  More importantly it’s been 4 straight bad playoff exits.  
 

And now we are likely losing multiple key starters this year and running back the same defensive scheme that has surrendered 107 points and 1403 to KC and Cincy the past 3 playoff losses the last 3 years.  We don’t have a lot of cap space either to address current significant needs and potential holes from potential player losses this year like Poyer, Edmunds, Devin, and Morse.  Not to mention our 2 most expensive defensive players are coming off ACL recovery or tears, and Von is doing it at age 34.

 

So I think heading into the offseason we are still 3rd best team, but we are going to have more significant needs and holes that previous years with a tight cap.  We are definitely behind KC and Cincy already.  And Cincy has a lot of cap space to potentially widen the gap on us.  
 

Meanwhile, all 3 of our divisional opponents are currently sitting with more cap space to keep working to close the gap on us.  
 

Yes, we will be favorites to win our division, but it’s far from a sure thing next year.  
 

NOTE:  If we bring Frazier back, which it looks like we are, then even with a great offseason we are still behind KC and Cincy.  How any DC can keep his job after 4 consecutive defensive failures in the playoff is beyond me.  Blew 2 score lead against Houston.  Then gave up 107 points and 1403 yards to KC and Cincy last 3 years, and one of those game was a snow storm against a depleted OL (Cincy).  Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT debacle last year.  

I am going to push back HARD on your thin interpretation of the Houston playoff game. The D essentially gave up 16 points in regulation plus another three because Allen fumbled at midfield, which led to a FG after a defensive stop. Then, in OT, the Bills actually made a stop, forcing a punt. Then Cody Ford happened. And on the game-deciding play, Frazier made the perfect call with a Milano blitz. Milano had watson dead to rights and simply blew the tackle. That should have been a sack, full stop. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202001040htx.htm

Edited February 2, 2023 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I am going to push back HARD on your thin interpretation of the Houston playoff game. The D essentially gave up 16 points in regulation plus another three because Allen fumbled at midfield, which led to a FG after a defensive stop. Then, in OT, the Bills actually made a stop, and on the key play, Frazier made the perfect call with a Milano blitz. Milano had watson dead to rights and simply blew the tackle. That should have been a sack, full stop. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202001040htx.htm

 

And the offense threw up all over itself in the second half. 

[Billsfan1972]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I am going to push back HARD on your thin interpretation of the Houston playoff game. The D essentially gave up 16 points in regulation plus another three because Allen fumbled at midfield, which led to a FG after a defensive stop. Then, in OT, the Bills actually made a stop, and on the key play, Frazier made the perfect call with a Milano blitz. Milano had watson dead to rights and simply blew the tackle. That should have been a sack, full stop. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202001040htx.htm

Agree there, but regardless they blew the game as they got very conservative the second half and McD had little confidence in the offense and Allen that second year (as is McD).  Oh and some horrible non-calls.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Agree there, but regardless they blew the game as they got very conservative the second half and McD had little confidence in the offense and Allen that second year (as is McD).  Oh and some horrible non-calls.

Allen played terribly in that game but got lucky. Houston DBs dropped multiple easy INTs.

[Teddy KGB]

On 1/30/2023 at 8:02 PM, JerseyBills said:

After over a week to process things, I completely disagree.  

 

The Bill's are a legit threat going forward and let's be honest - if the Hamlin situation doesn't happen,  we may have had a 1st rd bye or we play Cinci in their building without that nightmare happening. Either way, we'd have a better understanding of their gameplan vs us

 

Either way, that game plays out completely different.  Imagine seeing a brother/ teammate at that level being given life saving tactics. That's a traumatic experience 

 

Looking back, we had the juice vs NE after finding out he's alive and well. And fell apart in the playoffs. And I get it, that's overwhelming,  especially to the DBs and defense as a whole. 

 

Damar being here was our SB this year and worth more than a Lombardi.  Next year we'll have a Lombardi at 1 Bills Drive👍

or we get waxed by the Bengals for a second time 

 

this OL ain’t it when the going gets tough.  
 

the AFCE will be much better after the jets get a Qb and the fins take a step forward. 
 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Teddy KGB

[SoCal Deek]

Or…we could just get a halfway decent offensive and defensive line this coming year and stop all the other ancillary nonsense. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I am going to push back HARD on your thin interpretation of the Houston playoff game. The D essentially gave up 16 points in regulation plus another three because Allen fumbled at midfield, which led to a FG after a defensive stop. Then, in OT, the Bills actually made a stop, forcing a punt. Then Cody Ford happened. And on the game-deciding play, Frazier made the perfect call with a Milano blitz. Milano had watson dead to rights and simply blew the tackle. That should have been a sack, full stop. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202001040htx.htm

 

That is why I more focus on the last 3 exits, especially with how bad the refs were that game against Houston.  But we did still blow a 2 score lead...and while Milano missed that play, there were other plays the D gave up.  

 

In the last 3 seasons:

KC:  Defense was utterly out classed by KC in every way.

KC:  Gave up 42 points, including a TD and a FG in the final 1:50 of regulation and an opening drive TD in OT.  

Cincy:  Defense was again completely outclassed by Cincy this time, just like it was being outclassed by Cincy the night Hamlin got hurt.  Worse yet, this game was at home, in bad weather (where fans falsely believe we have an advantage, which we don't on either side of the ball), they had 3 backup offensive lineman in, and he was playing DB's 10 yards off the LOS on 3rd and short.  

 

So even if you excuse Houston game, what our defense has done in the last 3 playoff exits since is 100% a fireable performance.  107 points and 1403 yards in 3 playoff losses?  And the worst of those offenses is easily the last 2 seasons where we were defensively ranked 1st (2021) and 2nd (2022) during the regular season.  

 

 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That is why I more focus on the last 3 exits, especially with how bad the refs were that game against Houston.  But we did still blow a 2 score lead...and while Milano missed that play, there were other plays the D gave up.  

 

In the last 3 seasons:

KC:  Defense was utterly out classed by KC in every way.

KC:  Gave up 42 points, including a TD and a FG in the final 1:50 of regulation and an opening drive TD in OT.  

Cincy:  Defense was again completely outclassed by Cincy this time, just like it was being outclassed by Cincy the night Hamlin got hurt.  Worse yet, this game was at home, in bad weather (where fans falsely believe we have an advantage, which we don't on either side of the ball), they had 3 backup offensive lineman in, and he was playing DB's 10 yards off the LOS on 3rd and short.  

 

So even if you excuse Houston game, what our defense has done in the last 3 playoff exits since is 100% a fireable performance.  107 points and 1403 yards in 3 playoff losses?  And the worst of those offenses is easily the last 2 seasons where we were defensively ranked 1st (2021) and 2nd (2022) during the regular season.  

 

 

Re: the bolded, yes but: Houston's offense was pretty good (14th in yards, 13th in points, 7th in yards per drive, 8th in points per drive) and a defense is always going to give up some plays. Holding a good offense to 16 earned points on the road in regulation is a winning performance, and it's on the offense to score 20 points themselves. They couldn't do it despite scoring 3 times (13 points) on three of their first four possessions. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Alphadawg7]

41 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Re: the bolded, yes but: Houston's offense was pretty good (14th in yards, 13th in points, 7th in yards per drive, 8th in points per drive) and a defense is always going to give up some plays. Holding a good offense to 16 earned points on the road in regulation is a winning performance, and it's on the offense to score 20 points themselves. They couldn't do it despite scoring 3 times (13 points) on three of their first four possessions. 

 

I get all that, and I never said the D was atrocious that game, just pointed out we did still blow a 2 score lead and didn't get the stop in OT.   But it's also a pretty irrelevant part of this convo wouldn't you say?  I mean, that was 4 years ago.  The last 3 defensive performances, especially the last 2 with the #1 ranked D and 2nd ranked D respectively in the regular season are more than enough reason to move on from Frazier.  

 

There is irony here...you are defending the defense from over 4 years ago, which was before we spent several first and 2nd round picks on the defense and spent a butt load of money to retain or sign defensive players...and yet it was our best defensive performance of the last 4 playoff losses these past 4 years.  

 

Now here we are 4 years later, and after all these investments into the defense, having a top 2 defense the last 2 seasons, we still have given up 107 points and 1403 yards the past 3 losses to KC, KC, and Cincy.  And the Cincy game was in bad weather and in Buffalo with several OL out.  We are "supposed" to have this alleged "home field advantage" in bad weather at home, but even that didn't help Frazier and his defensive game plan that again completely failed for the 3rd straight year in the playoffs.  

 

I mean just watching the KC vs Cincy game, the defensive game plan so clearly better than anything Frazier has trotted out in the last 3 playoff losses. 

 

That is the issue...I have never been "fire this guy" kind of guy.  There are times where it's been painfully obvious though that you can't just keep doing the same thing.  Under Frazier, we fielded the #1 and #2 ranked defense in the past 2 regular seasons...that D got dominated by KC and Cincy still in those respective playoff losses.  YET...the very next week last year, Cincy shutdown the KC offense that 2nd half to go to the Super Bowl, something we couldn't do.  This year, KC and Cincy both held each others offenses in check a week after Cincy embarrassed our defense (again, as they were doing before Hamlin injury too).  

 

There is only one common denominator here and its Frazier.  Yes I do know McD has his hands on this D too, but still, we need to bring in a new DC with new ideas to make some changes.  Running it back is the definition of crazy, just doing the same things over again and expecting the same results.