Dust has settled...Alphas look at what lies ahead

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This is a bit over dramatic.  McDermott doesn’t deserve to be fired, and if he was he’d have a new job in five minutes.  He is a very good head coach.  
 

As far as the coordinators, I’m much more concerned with Dorsey than Frazier.  Say what you will about the last three playoff losses but Frazier’s defense ranked top 5 in DVOA during the season.  While the performance in the playoff sucked, keep in mind he was missed three key starters and Ed Oliver was rumored to be playing through an injury as well.  Plus in the end, the defense gave up just 27 points - just 13 points after the 1st two drives.  Meanwhile the offense scored a measly 10 point - the worst performance in years.  
 

That brings me to Ken Dorsey.  I think overall he did a very mediocre job as OC. Very rarely did you see any creativity or plays designed to get gadget players touches.  He also did a very poor uprising the pass catching backs on the roster.   There is no identity on the Bills offense and that falls on Dorsey.  I’m not very encouraged for 2023 with him at the helm.  
 

If anything, Josh helped cover up a lot of issues on offense including a very poor offensive line.   I can see the same thing happening next year.  
 

 As long as the Bills improve the offensive line, I think the rest falls into place on offense.  But I think Dorsey sometimes gets pass because Josh has been so good this season 

 

I never said fire McD, so not sure where you are getting that from.  I said its time to move on from Frazier after 107 points and 1403 yards surrendered in the last 3 consecutive playoff losses, plus 13 seconds debacle and OT collapse.  I can't think of another coach with that kind of playoff record in 3 straight seasons that has kept his job.  And really its 4 straight years because his D blew a 2 score lead in the 2nd half against Houston too 4 years ago.

 

You only get so many legit shots at the SB...Fraziers defensive scheme is a BIG reason why we haven't gotten over the hump.  We keep upgrading his personnel on defense too, and he keeps giving the same result. 

 

Dorsey IMHO sucks.  He was completely clueless on how to use the roster properly, terrible situational awareness in his play calling, and utter lack of creativity in his scheme.  Not to mention, he was worse at running the ball than Daboll was.                          

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Why would you differentiate between the games?

I believe the Bills were effected 6 days out and still somewhat 13 days vs. Miami.

 

With Hamlin home & as healthy as can be expected, using that as an excuse vs. Cincy was weak imo.

 

[Billsfan1972]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

There’s plenty of blame to go around for the loss to the Bengals but it’s pure revisionist history to put it all on the defense. Despite another slow start, the Bills were still very much in the game well into the third quarter, but the offense (which had almost no injuries by the way) simply couldn’t move the chains, stay on the field, or score any points after a lousy field goal to open the second half. Pathetic! 

The Bills forced one punt the first half (and lucky at that).  I've pointed that out plenty of times too and again blame Dorsey as when we needed a play dialed up, he had nothing (and that ultimately falls on the coaches & McD). 

 

First and 10 at Cincy 39 with plenty of time and three lousy play calls (keep it simple short passes and ensure time off the cloack and minimum a fg).  

 

First & Goal from the 8.....  Again three terrible calls and a FG (made it 17-10).  

 

Of course then Cincy carved up the Bills D for an easy TD.

[Nextmanup]

We are likely in a mini state of decline right now.  After next season, that will be more obvious.

 

UNLESS we recognize that NOW and do something to preempt it this off-season.

 

This is going to be the most important off-season for Beane and McDermott in a while.

 

Staying about the same will be going backward.

 

Making small improvements will amount to staying about the same.

 

Gotta do more than that, if the goal is to compete with the best 3 or 4 teams in the league and WIN a Super Bowl.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

After over a week to process things, I completely disagree.  

 

The Bill's are a legit threat going forward and let's be honest - if the Hamlin situation doesn't happen,  we may have had a 1st rd bye or we play Cinci in their building without that nightmare happening. Either way, we'd have a better understanding of their gameplan vs us

 

Either way, that game plays out completely different.  Imagine seeing a brother/ teammate at that level being given life saving tactics. That's a traumatic experience 

 

Looking back, we had the juice vs NE after finding out he's alive and well. And fell apart in the playoffs. And I get it, that's overwhelming,  especially to the DBs and defense as a whole. 

 

Damar being here was our SB this year and worth more than a Lombardi.  Next year we'll have a Lombardi at 1 Bills Drive👍

 

Not sure how you can say if Hamlin situation doesn't happen we win the #1 seed.  In the Hamlin game, Cincy was moving the ball with even more embarrassing ease than in the playoffs.  There was not a single minute between the Hamlin game and postseason game where we remotely looked like the better team.  I get Bills have started behind early and then went on to win 5 times in the regular season.  But we just played Cincy a whole game and they dominated every aspect of this football team.

 

Sure, it's certainly possible we may have won that first game because Allen and the offense would have had a better game not playing in bad weather like the playoff game. And when you have Allen you will always have a chance.  But in the 2 games our defense was dominated by Cincy and they were on their way to taking a 2 score lead in Cincy before Hamlin injury.  

 

Now, I agree we are a legit threat moving forward, but I disagree that we are one of the top teams at this moment.  We have a slew of weak spots to fill and several FA's that likely create new holes.  Our 2 best players on Defense still under contract (Tre and Von) are coming off ACL injuries.  And our biggest competition in the AFC outside of KC have cap space to keep getting better while we are tight on the cap.  

 

AFCE might well be the toughest division in football next year, and we also play KC and Cincy.  Going into next year, the cream of the crop is going to be KC and Cincy and we will be in that next tier until we can prove we belong back in the convo as a top AFC team. 

 

Im not being negative, I am just being unbiased and realistic about where we currently sit moving forward.  And if both Frazier and Dorsey are here next year, then I think that will be the biggest mistake of the offseason and I believe it may cost McD his job next year.  I just don't see us getting past both KC and Cincy with those 2 coordinators.  Fraziers D is such a bad style against teams like Cincy and KC.  Yes we can still beat them, but his defensive scheme makes it so much harder and puts all the pressure on Josh to be Superman to do it.  Even when Josh played one of the best games in NFL playoff history, we still lost thanks to Fraziers defense giving up 17 points in like 2 minutes to end the game.                   

[John from Riverside]

24 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I believe the Bills were effected 6 days out and still somewhat 13 days vs. Miami.

 

With Hamlin home & as healthy as can be expected, using that as an excuse vs. Cincy was weak imo.

 

Hamlin literally came in and saw the team before the Bengals game
 

I’m not quite sure how you put a timeframe on this so they were affected six days out and they were affected 13 days out but they can’t be affected further than that OK

[Success]

I'm okay w/ losing Poyer & Singletary - but I think they should really try to keep Edmunds.  He & Milano make for a pretty formidable combo, and I think Edmunds is still getting better. He dominated a few games this year. We'd miss his presence.

 

Big RB, more help on the O-line, and another receiver.  Doable.

 

[newcam2012]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I am sitting it an unusual position, and I don't like it.  The 3 previous playoff exits in 2021, 2020, and 2019 I was left feeling very excited and optimistic about the next year, like we were just getting started or had arrived.  

• 2019 - We had a 2 score lead at halftime, then a handful of self inflicted wounds, some REALLY BAD refs, cost us that game.  But we were so young and felt like we starting to arrive and on our way to being one of the best teams in the AFC.
• 2020 - we go 13-3 and make the AFCCG but it felt like we weren't quite on the Chiefs level yet after that loss.  But it did feel like we were nipping at their heels and just just a few tweaks away from over taking them as the top team in the AFC.
• 2021 - Allen, Davis, and the offense played out of their minds and gave so much hope for the next year.  Like it took a fluke miscommunication by the ST Coordinator for the Chiefs to get a small window to steal the game back, but we had shown we were now the better team.  It felt like we were the best team in football and could have beaten both the Bengals and then Rams in SB.  

 

But now this year, things feel different.  Instead of feeling like we are on our way to being the best team, or that we are the best team in the AFC...it now feels like we are firmly behind KC and Cincy right now with other teams nipping at our heels even as the 3rd best team, including ones in our own division.  And we are entering an offseason with key players on both sides of the ball as Free Agents, with a tight cap, and several holes to fill.  Complicating it further, two of our most expensive players have ACL tears impact their potential value to the team (Tre and Von).

 

That being said, it is not all doom and gloom, we are still a good team and are blessed to have Allen and Diggs still.  But we do have a lot of challenges and decisions facing us as we head into the offseason:

 

Before we even address the roster:

• Frazier and Dorsey likely back - Big mistake out the gate IMHO.
  • Frazier has given up 107 points and 1403 yards the last 3 playoff losses, that is inexcusable, not to mention the 13 second debacle.  Yes I know McD has a hand in the defensive system as well, but bringing in a new DC with new ideas and new ways to use players would still be a welcomed change.
  • Dorsey was clueless on how to use our personnel this year.  We only had 2 legit outside WR's and a roster full of slots, and yet he played an air it out deep ball game.
    • We drafted an undersized RB in 2nd round to catch passes then barely threw him the ball and instead ran draw plays with him.  We traded for Hines then gave him 10 touches.  We had a weak spot at slot and yet didn't get Shakir more touches and experience.  And of course we didn't run the ball. 
• Our schemes and roster are not built for severe weather conditions, and that is going to be tough for us to remedy if we are going to stay the course with the same systems that Frazier and Dorsey brought this year.  

 

Personnel Concerns:  

• We have a tight cap, and low round pick in each round.
• Poyer, Edmunds, and Devin are FA's - likely at least 2 gone, maybe all 3, creating new holes to fill while tight on cap space
• Von Miller - 34 and coming off ACL.  We already saw with Tre, it's no easy task to come back from this injury, and he is trying to do it at 34.  Big questions on when he will back as well as what kind of a player he can be, especially given he relies a lot on speed and quickness.  
• Offensive Line needs significant help, and we don't yet know if Morse will be back either.  Between age, concussion issues, and Hamlin scare, it would not surprise me to see him retire, and honestly, he probably should as he has had too many concussions over his career.  
• Need at least 1 more quality WR
• Secondary concerns - What kind of players will Tre and Hyde be next year?  Can Elam take over a starting spot?  Will Benford convert to Safety and how well will that transition go if he does?  Will Hamlin be back next year?
• I am not 100%, but I think Shaq is also a FA, and he was playing well for us...will he back if he is a FA?
• Right now, we are staring down the barrel of a tight cap situation while Cincy and our own divisional opponents continue to reap the benefits (as of now) of no big QB contract and will potentially have cap space to keep closing the gap while we will cap strapped and have existing holes and potentially new holes to fill with budget FA's and late in the round draft slots.

 

My thoughts based on the above info:

Bringing back both Dorsey and Frazier are only going to make next year harder IMO.  But based on what we have heard since the loss, it seems pretty probable they will both be back.  I think if we want any chance to contend next year come playoff time, we are going to need the offense and Josh Allen of 2021 to do it.  

• Invest significantly in protecting Allen along the OL, at least ONE of our first 2 picks better be OL and I would invest 2 in the first 4 rounds.  Would also see who we can add in FA.
• Get another legit WR opposite Diggs.  Explore a trade, free agent or just take a WR early, first or 2nd round, to help Josh.  Then commit to Shakir taking over the slot position.
• Cook is not physical, so go draft someone in mid rounds or sign someone like D'Onta Foreman at a bargain to be a more traditional runner (he can catch too) and let Cook play more of a Kamara role.  
• Expand Knox's role as a pass catcher like they did down the stretch.  Get back to using him in the redzone more.   
• Try moving Benford to Safety, which was what they considered when they drafted him in the first place.  
• Poyer and Edmunds - I am torn here.  On one hand, Poyers value is undeniable...but you got age and injury history now playing into the discussion, plus cap space.  Edmunds is easily coming off his best year and has been a major piece in our defense.  But cap space is tight, and having BOTH of them has not kept us from giving up 107 points and 1403 yards in our last 3 playoff losses.  
  • So, I think I am now leaning towards either let both walk, or keep Poyer on a short term deal and let Edmunds walk and use that cap space to invest as much as we can into protecting Josh and upgrading this offense.  
  • Look to replace Edmunds with a value add Free Agent and maybe try and find a young guy in the 3rd or 4th rounds potentially.  
• I would try and package Ed Oliver for a draft pick(s) or even a quality player at a position of need.  His impact is so dependent on the guys around him, he isn't consistently disrupting games and was just taken completely out of the game by Cincy's backup OL.  I can't see investing heavy into him the following season, so I would trade him for assets or a player that can help this team next year.  Our DT can be anchored by Phillips, Settle and Jones next year and not be any worse than its been the last 3 playoff losses.

   

This would be my offseason plan, although that is not entirely true...my offseason plan would be to move on from BOTH Frazier and Dorsey and give McD one last year to get us over the hump before he hits the hot seat too.  But, given it doesn't feel like either is going anywhere, I would say minimize our overhead on defense since it didn't help us the last 4 playoff exits and invest heavy into the offense.   Who we draft will be a direct reflection of who we sign in FA prior...for example, if we sign Foreman at RB that makes drafting a RB less of a priority.  

Awesome post Alpha! One of the best I've ever read on here. 

[MasterStrategist]

27 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I never said fire McD, so not sure where you are getting that from.  I said its time to move on from Frazier after 107 points and 1403 yards surrendered in the last 3 consecutive playoff losses, plus 13 seconds debacle and OT collapse.  I can't think of another coach with that kind of playoff record in 3 straight seasons that has kept his job.  And really its 4 straight years because his D blew a 2 score lead in the 2nd half against Houston too 4 years ago.

 

You only get so many legit shots at the SB...Fraziers defensive scheme is a BIG reason why we haven't gotten over the hump.  We keep upgrading his personnel on defense too, and he keeps giving the same result. 

 

Dorsey IMHO sucks.  He was completely clueless on how to use the roster properly, terrible situational awareness in his play calling, and utter lack of creativity in his scheme.  Not to mention, he was worse at running the ball than Daboll was.                          

Agree on Frazier/his scheme being a big concern. As other said, it's a great defense against middle-of-the-road offenses (ie: making them drive the field, hoping for 1-2 mistakes).  But against top tier offenses, you can't count on Mahomes/Burrow types to make critical mistakes or get behind the chains.

 

I'm least concerned about Dorsey, of all the other problems we have.  Dorsey is just over-aggressive, he needs to dial it back.  He did have issues acclimating everyone, but that improved (some) with getting Knox more involved.  We need more of an identity, seemed like he was overcomplicating himself with so many formation/package variations.

 

I'm not looking up the stats, but Dabolls run game was definitely not better.  He got it balanced toward the end of his time here, but he too lacked "balance" in multiple games.  Our offense started great this year, it lost momentum at crucial times....turnovers didn't help either. 

 

Frazier I'm fine with leaving, but Dorsey would be a mistake.

 

 

[newcam2012]

37 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I never said fire McD, so not sure where you are getting that from.  I said its time to move on from Frazier after 107 points and 1403 yards surrendered in the last 3 consecutive playoff losses, plus 13 seconds debacle and OT collapse.  I can't think of another coach with that kind of playoff record in 3 straight seasons that has kept his job.  And really its 4 straight years because his D blew a 2 score lead in the 2nd half against Houston too 4 years ago.

 

You only get so many legit shots at the SB...Fraziers defensive scheme is a BIG reason why we haven't gotten over the hump.  We keep upgrading his personnel on defense too, and he keeps giving the same result. 

 

Dorsey IMHO sucks.  He was completely clueless on how to use the roster properly, terrible situational awareness in his play calling, and utter lack of creativity in his scheme.  Not to mention, he was worse at running the ball than Daboll was.                          

At some point the head coach has to be held accountable too. 

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Hamlin literally came in and saw the team before the Bengals game
 

I’m not quite sure how you put a timeframe on this so they were affected six days out and they were affected 13 days out but they can’t be affected further than that OK

You may be right (btw affected not effected).  I look at how I reacted and others afterwards.  

 

I said whatever happened the rest of the year, I'd be okay as I was so worried about what happened and Damar's health. 

 

NE I expected an emotional affect, but the Bills are so much a better team. 

 

Things improved and still so much a better team then Miami and that game was just so unusual in any case.

 

By Cincy it was SB or bust again for me as Hamlin home and well on the way to recovery.   

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Awesome post Alpha! One of the best I've ever read on here. 

 

Wow thanks, that is some high praise there so thank you kind sir

 

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

At some point the head coach has to be held accountable too. 

 

Totally agree, McD is safe today, but I think if McD runs it back with Frazier and Dorsey then this next year is his last year to get to the big show.  If he comes up short again, all 3 will be gone and Beane will start his first coaching search as a GM.  

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I never said fire McD, so not sure where you are getting that from.  I said its time to move on from Frazier after 107 points and 1403 yards surrendered in the last 3 consecutive playoff losses, plus 13 seconds debacle and OT collapse.  I can't think of another coach with that kind of playoff record in 3 straight seasons that has kept his job.  And really its 4 straight years because his D blew a 2 score lead in the 2nd half against Houston too 4 years ago.

 

You only get so many legit shots at the SB...Fraziers defensive scheme is a BIG reason why we haven't gotten over the hump.  We keep upgrading his personnel on defense too, and he keeps giving the same result. 

 

Dorsey IMHO sucks.  He was completely clueless on how to use the roster properly, terrible situational awareness in his play calling, and utter lack of creativity in his scheme.  Not to mention, he was worse at running the ball than Daboll was.                          

And again you've let McD off the hook (especially on the D).

 

He seems to skate all the time.  

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Wow thanks, that is some high praise there so thank you kind sir

 

 

Totally agree, McD is safe today, but I think if McD runs it back with Frazier and Dorsey then this next year is his last year to get to the big show.  If he comes up short again, all 3 will be gone and Beane will start his first coaching search as a GM.  

So again all the pressure is on Allen in 2023 imo.

[Billsfan1972]

Again call me simple, but McD is the HC, doesn't he review or make a game plan with the coaches and they go over downs, distances, players, schemes and plays to call under different scenarios?

 

We have heard almost universally the first 15 offensive plays a diagrammed and run, so they must discuss it prior.

 

Frazier & McD saw Cincy make swiss cheese of the D for there first 10 plays 3 weeks prior and came out and had the exact same defense January 22nd. 

 

I just don't get it.   

[Mr. WEO]

Poyer is a liability in coverage.  Never more clear than in the Cincy game.  He's gotta go.

[TheCockSportif]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

AFCE might well be the toughest division in football next year, and we also play KC and Cincy.  Going into next year, the cream of the crop is going to be KC and Cincy and we will be in that next tier until we can prove we belong back in the convo as a top AFC team.                

I agreed with all else that you wrote except for this.  NE is a wildcard with a retread OC, and they will presumably be better. Tua?  Who knows?  Jets?  Probably not, but who knows?

[Pete]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Poyer is a liability in coverage.  Never more clear than in the Cincy game.  He's gotta go.

Poyer was playing with a torn meniscus numb nuts 

[Simon Says]

I don't bother reading these long-winded ,self-indulgent,wide-ranging posts.

Stick to ONE topic, research it,  state the facts,do a very good job of making a point z

and then move on.

[Mr. WEO]

14 hours ago, Pete said:

Poyer was playing with a torn meniscus numb nuts 

 

Was he hobbled?  Is that what had him out of position all game?  Stop...

[Behindenemylines]

On 1/30/2023 at 7:49 PM, Steptide said:

I'm fine with keeping Dorsey and Frazier, but if they're gonna do that, they Damm well better change things when it comes to personel and scheme. Not saying overhaul the roster, but we all know this offense needs help. Dorsey and Fraizer can't just keep doing what they've been doing. I've seen enough kc games and Cincinnati games to know that their receivers are always wide open, I wanna see that in the bills offense again (ie 2020 bills offense) 

Why would things change now?  13 seconds didn’t do it then why would a second round loss do it?  
 

frazier sucks, is predictable and flat out soft.  He puts his players in positions to fail.  If someone can explain to me how we give up so many key plays in this scheme but yet he’s good id like to hear it.   
 

think of the losses in the last three years-mostly defensive failures with last seasons blowup his crowning achievement 

 

we will get the same BS gameplay I could scheme an offense against with a good high school team and still put up 17 points-because he will give me  5 yards every Fu$&ing play-but at least I’ll be in front of him when I score.