2023 Offseason Primer: RBs

[gobills404]

2 hours ago, DJB said:

We have a passing back in Cook.

We need a true 3 down RB which Bijan is. Im tired of using small incomplete RBs like Moss, Singletary, Hines and Cook
 

Bijan is also no slouch in the passing game either. He’s solid

I’m not 100% against drafting Bijan, but there are exactly 0 teams in the NFL that NEED a feature back

[frostbitmic]

I'd be surprised if Singletary gets anything near the 5.5M they predict his price will be.

 

1. Cook - We don't use RB's much anyway, he can handle the load

2. Hines - Great return man and should be more involved with the offense. Would love to see plays with both of them on the field together.

3.  ??? - I'd love to see a short yardage power back who can block. Either a 5th round draft pick or a UDFA.

4. Free Agent for the Practice Squad who can run, catch and is cheap.

 

No point in spending money here

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

To me Cook is an outside speed finesse guy.  They need an inside power back  Singletary is somewhere in the middle between the two so for that reason I'd let him go and try and find that power back someplace.

 

I think the team does need some good core ST players, but want ones that can and do contribute some to either offense or defense when needed. Jones contributes zero (same with Tyler M) so would let Jones go.  Where as agree would keep Gilliam as does provide to offense when asked to.

[Mark Vader]

Great write-up.

 

We all knew that this would be Singletary's last year with the Bills. Jones should be done as well. I'd like to see less money being used on Special Teams Aces.

 

James Cook has the job, bring Hines to camp and decide his fate then. Gilliam can go, and a better O-Line will make the use of a blocking Fullback irrelevant.

 

Signing a player like Saquon Barkley sounds unrealistic, as exciting as that would be. Barkley would be a luxury signing, we need better O-Linemen first.

 

No need to draft a running back either. See what the UDFA pool looks like.

[Maine-iac]

Pretty sure the 4th string guy in Cleveland is a FA.  Guy has had some monster games but is buried in the depth chart.  D'Ernest Johnson would be a great addition on the cheap.  I still love Motor and would love to see him come back.  I like Cook a lot but he seems to have the speed but I'm not sure about the wiggle.  At the very least I hope they have a complimentary back who can either make a guy miss in a phone booth or run them over (220 plus lbs).

[ghostwriter]

Usually I am firmly against us drafting a RB in RD1, but this year I am not. I’m ok with us taking Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs RD1.

A bell cow 25-30 carry a game RB would take a lot of pressure off of Josh and having an elite RB at a low salary would free up money for us in other areas.

 

I love Singletary and I also like Hines but I think we need that money for other areas, unless Hines would be willing to take a pay cut because I doubt Singletary will, he will no doubt be looking to get paid.

Zach Charbonnet in RD2 would be a good get as well or even Kendre Miller in RD3. 
 

Anyways, I think WR or a bell cow RB pushes the needle forward for us the most on offense, but no doubt we need a few linemen as well.

 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I think he will be too expensive, but love the idea of Perine.
 

Don’t be surprised to see Singletary return. I suspect he won’t get much on the open market. 

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

OK here we are time for the one position group that so many love, I don’t value nearly as much as some, so I want to warn everyone, my writeup will likely be a bit biased here against the group as a whole, Now that that disclaimer is done time to move on to the RBs. 

 

The standard disclaimer:  I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information.  I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats.  Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future.

 

So here we go …

 

Financials:

Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M

Cap Space (top 51):  -20,517,462M (Cap Announced causing this adjustment)

 

RB/FB – 3 players on contact 3.59% of CAP, 19th highest in the NFL.

 

RFA

None

 

UFA

Devin Singletary – 26 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 975K, projected market value 5.5M AAV  – Gonna start of here by saying this is interesting on his projected market value at 5.5M, that number almost could be completely offset by the release of Nyheim Hines, if there is another Return man identified on the roster, because Hines really offered nothing to the offense since the trade and I would rather have Offensive production over ST players (this is below with Jones as well).  Now let’s investigate the numbers for Devin.  He was roughly right on his running attempt number of 177 (that is roughly where he has been all 4 years in buffalo).  Right at his yards as well with 819 (had 870 last year).  5 TDs, 43 runs resulting in 1st.  4.6 yards per carry.  (This is right where he was last year too).  Receiving side 52 targets (highest in career, two years at 50), 38 catches 280 yards, 7.4 yards per catch, 1 TD Catch rate at 7.1%.  Some fancy numbers 3.1 yards before contact (this one caught be by surprise a bit and was the highest in his career).  Not nearly as many broken tackles (9) as in the past and went 19.7 attempts per broken tackle (worst in his career).  Had 6 drops highest in his career but was a 91.8 QB rating when targeted.  All these numbers scream productive back here. I would not be opposed to bringing him back, however I want to make sure other priorities are allocated against first.  However, a 5.5M AAV contract could likely be structured in a way to account for 1.5M against the 2023 cap (Jones Cap hit), and then Hines falls off in 2024 before this contract gets up in the 5-6M Cap hit range.  

 

Taiwan Jones – 35 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.272M, Time to move on from a ST only player. 

 

On Contract

 

James Cook age 24, 0.58% of cap, 1.325M cap hit (No Savings) –  He is exactly why I am moving on from Singletary IMO.  Anyway here are his numbers.  89 attempts 507 yards, 2 TDs, 25 runs resulting in a 1st down and a 5.7 yards per carry.  Had 21 receptions on 32 targets for 180 yards and a 8.6 yards per reception and a TD with 65.6% catch rate.  Some fancy numbers 3.7 yards before contact, 3 broken tackles and 29.7 attempts between broken tackles (numbers suggest not as hard to bring down as Motor).  Had 3 drops and a 77.6 QB rating when targeted.  In my honest opinion the numbers back up what my eyes were telling me Cook is RB1 going forward. 

 

Nyheim Hines age 26, 2.11% of cap, 4.79M cap hit (4.78M in savings) – This to me looks like the deal I would have wanted for Singletary if resigned, So IMO he is the Singletary extension.  I can handle that for a couple reasons.  1.  He is on Contract for 2023 and 2024 with no guaranteed money so no problem moving on from him at any point.  4.7M cap this year 5.4M cap next year.  Brings the return capability (something that Motor doesn’t), then if you look at him in the roll Cook played this year with about 110 touches he did really well with the Cols, with a 4.9 ypc and 7.7 yards per catch.  I think that tells me we have our two RBs here, fill RB3 and RB4 late in the draft, UDFA or post draft value RB signing.   

 

Reggie Gilliam, age 26, 0.90% against cap, 2.023M cap hit (1.361 savings) – here is hard, to me I say move one save the 1.36M, but I know there is value here outside the just about zero production in the stats.  But only logged about 17% of Offensive Snaps and 78% snaps on ST.  Because of the Big ST contributions from him I probably would keep him on the roster (taking essentially the Taiwan Jones cap hit.  But I could see this as cut prospect if can find a Rookie to do what he does.  End of the day if Gilliam is moved off the Bills Roster it will be after camp IMO. 

 

Notable UFAs – Ok I will list some here, I personally would not sign anyone, but I will make a list of who I think can fit the offense anyway.   

 

RB

Saquon Barkley, 26 – This is probably the top RB on the market.  Going to likely cost around 13-15M AAV.  I could get talked into this because he is good in the passing game as well.  So I do think this would be like a McCaffery type RB (that the Bills have flirted with).    

 

Kareem Hunt 27 years old.  This is a back that would slide right into the role that is offered, he has played it most of his career.  Probably in the 5-9M AAV range.

 

Josh Jacobs, 25 years old – Here is another back that is both good in the running game and pretty darn good in the passing game as well, I could see him getting mor than Barkley to be honest.  But Probably in the 11-16M AAV range.

 

Samaje Perine – 27 years old – This would be the ONE back I would sign in UFA early.  Likely around a 2-4M AAV contract, 5-11 240 (BIG POWERFUL BACK) this SHOULD allow us to fix the short yardage without putting more hits on Josh. 

 

RB

1st round

Jahmyr Gibbs, 5-11 200, Bama – I have him ranked as the best RB in the class. 

Bijan Robinson, 6’0, 220, Texas

 

2nd Round

Devon Achane, 5’9” 185, Texas A&M

Zach Charbonnet, 6’1” 220, UCLA

Zach Evans, 6’0” 215, Ole Miss

DeWayne McBride, 5’11’”, 215 UAB

 

What I would do:

 

     I would Let all Motor and Jones walk.  Motor has been supplanted by Cook and Jones is nothing that I cannot find with a late round or UDFA Rookie.

 

I then go into UFA and Sign Perine from Bengals, get that short yardage back the team has used Allen for, now I no longer need to keep putting that punishment on him as I have a back that can routinely pick up those 3 to 4 tough yards in short yardage.  That is about a 1.5M hit in 2023.

 

RBs before draft.

 

RB1 – Cook

RB2 – Perine

RB3/Returner - Hines

 

Draft Unless you get Gibbs or Robinson to fall to you in the draft wait until 6th or later and address it.  Me personally I get a couple UDFAs (we have had good luck in UDFA RBs) and call it a day in this position group.

 

Past Writeups Links:

Cap Tickets (30 Jan)

State of the Franchise (23 Jan)

Offensive Line (23 Jan)

WRs/TEs (26 Jan)

 

Final one on Offense will be QB - hint, dont expect anything earth shattering there, then on to defense.  Any specific group anyone want me to stat with on Defense?

 

8 hours ago, DJB said:

Yeah can’t get on board with anyone above Robinson as #1 RB in this class 

Gibbs > Robinson feels like CEH > Taylor all over again.  Folks love the pass catching aspect of RB's but there are a bunch of guys who can catch the ball and be near as productive as the top pass catchers that are cheaper. Taylor (and Robinson) are much better players at their position. The Chiefs replaced CEH with McKinnon who has been BETTER than him for nothing.

 

Some 2022 stats:

 

Ekeler 6.7 YPR

McCaffrey 8.7 YPR

Fournette 7.1 YPR

Stevenson 6.1 YPR

Aaron Jones 6.7 YPR

Barkley 5.9 YPR

Kamara 8.7 YPR

McKinnon 9.1 YPR

Swift 8.1 YPR

Gibson 7.7 YPR

Singletary 7.4 YPR.

Montgomery 9.0 YPR.

 

Some of those dudes are paid as stars. Some of them are young cheap players. Some of them are cheap vets. Unless they are great at EVERYTHING, like McCaffrey, it's likely not an ability worth chasing.