2023 Offseason Primer: Cap Tickets (Restructure)

[MAJBobby]

13 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Nice write-up as usual, but you are (as usual ) way too optimistic about some things.

 

Couple of notes.

 

1. I don't think it makes sense to even discuss top51. It's just a temporary thing. I would always count standard roster so we immediately have $1.7 or so less (for two min deal players).

this somewhat makes sense to me. But the top 51 is the rule right now and through the summer. So looking at it that way is how teams would. And you can always free 1.7M in summer very easily. Example McKenzie cut or traded in Summer because you rookie WRs out perform. Boom you are cap compliant for the 53 man roster. 
 

2. You need $4M for PS players and let's say $3M for very basic in season moves. Suddenly your cap space looks completely different. Those $22.2M after those basic moves are in fact imo only around $13M or so.  another post summer issue. And this will be freed up again with the post summer moves. Players will supplant older players with No to small guaranteed money. And that will be enough to get the operating money that is needed to the injuries and PS. Also while I get I can be overly optimistic at times it happens to every team every year people start asking how can they fit that 100M contract. Well the initial cap year hit is something like 3M. (Same as Von). You guarantee Roster bonuses in the out years and you have future cap tickets as well. 

 

3. You say its for 2-3 top end players. I agree, but that means no Edmunds (I guess), and above all that means 10 guys on roster who were on our PS this year. And if you start replacing them with NFL quality players, that means more money.  edmunds would fall into that. So if you resign Edmunds you have 1-2 top players in UFA. I guess the better way to say that is Bills have the cap space to take on 2-3 top end over 12M AAV contracts. That is probably the best way to say it. That includes re-signings. 

 

I know that you know this and are aware that this is what other restructures will be required for, I am just pointing it out since it wasn't clear from the OP (to me at least).  Correct and there are a lot of smaller restructure tickets that can be used for the post summer operating expenses if needed. And later summer non guaranteed money cuts as well that will always happen. 

 

 

 

 

Comments in line. 
 

also I should probably have said this earlier. My intent on picking what contracts to restructure was to get me the ability to signed what I need to in UFA. Example I don’t restructure Von until I have an agreement in place that I need the space for. Same with Allen. 
 

essentially saying do your cap moves to get cap compliant. Then hold the tickets until the space is needed for an agreed to contract. No reason to kick the can just to kick the can. 

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

At the end.

 

If we only do the Allen, Miller and Oliver extension 

 

Cap Space (top 51) at 31.72M

I ran a couple contract games over the weekend. 

 

I was able to add

 

Jawaan Taylor (RT) - 2023 Cap hit 5.5M

Isaac Seumalo (OG) -2023 Cap hit 5M

Ethan Pocic (C) - 2023 Cap Hit 4M.

 

All would have outs in after year 3 and that was structuring a deal that would pay them AAV 1-2M over their projected market value on SPOTRAC.  That would be a brand new Right side and Center for 14M this year in cap hits.  (they doubled roughly in 2024 year).

 

 

Pocic is getting PAID IMO. He had a hell of a year. I think Spotrac is low on his number. He is getting $10-12m AAV IMO. 

[H2o]

21 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Edit one:  All cap numbers are now updated IAW with the Official Cap announcement at. 224.8M at 1457 30 Jan 2023

 

OK here we are I took a break on the Position Group to do a cap ticket one.  So that way everyone has a little cheat sheep for the Bills Cap Health and tickets that they do have.  I will get back to the position groups, I just wanted to take a little break having already done the WR/TE and OL (which IMO are the two biggest need position groups). 

The standard disclaimer:  I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information.  I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats.  Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future.

 

So here we go …

 

Financials: 

 

Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M

Cap Space (top 51): -20,517,462M (Cap Announced causing this adjustment) (edited in after official number was announced)

 

Cap Tickets (restructure candidates) – Before I get into this I will also put would I do it after the writeup.  I have personally requirements to make a restructure, 1.  Is the player sub 30 years old, 2.  Is there at least 2 years left on contract. 3. Will I be guaranteeing new money (this tends to make me say No to the restructure).

 

Josh Allen, 27 yrs, 2023 Cap 39.772M, - Ok with him it looks like there is 27.5M (base) 8.47M (roster bonus) that are fully guaranteed.  So, he has 35.972M guaranteed this year against that CAP hit of his.  So we could absolutely do a restructure here.  I will run it out for max cap savings, however Bills could elect to do less than what I do here.  If you make his Base 1M and make the Roster and Base Salary Signing Bonuses to prorate out.  I an push 34M into the out years.  He has 5 years outside of this one.  But I think for Simple restructure they must account for allocation this year as well.  So 34M/6 = 5.67M.  So that type of restructure would make Allens Cap hit this year – 10.47M (Saving 29.3M).  Not including the Roster Bonus as part of the restructure and only including the Base makes hit Cap at (18.2M) with saves (21.1M). *I would do this fits my criteria.

 

Stefon Diggs 30 yrs, 2023 Cap 20.277M – This one is a little harder, there is a 7.8M Base and 250K in bonuses that could be restructures.  That would lower his cap hit to 14.4M (saving 5.6M).   There are years left to support he proration – 4, the issue is next year it really looks like that is when this contract was set to do something with when he has a base of 18.5M and the out year right now is after the 2024 season. *I don’t think I am touching this one for only a 5.6M savings at this point.

 

Von Miller 34 yrs, 2023 Cap 18.615M – Here is mainly the restructure of his 13.5M roster bonus as his base is already low.  So if you take that guaranteed roster bonus make it a signing bonus and pro-rate out, it doesn’t affect anything else with his contract, out year remains the same.  You can make his new cap hit at 7.637M and saves 10.864M.  *I would do this.

 

Tre White 28 yrs, 2023 Cap 16.223M – This contract has triggers to it.  Essentially his entire base guarantees on March 22nd 2023.  Reason I mention this is those triggers make the 8.6M base guaranteed, and it important because they will trigger there is no savings with Tre on a release (adds 6M in dead).  So now that makes that base salary restructure capable.  He would have 3 years of contract to pro-rate any restructure over the 3 years.  This would bring his cap number down to 10.3M and saves 5.88M against the 2023 cap.  *I probably only do this if I need another 5.88M for an impact signing, I don’t like restructuring an injured player, I would like to see if he fully regains form next year before doing anything here.  

 

Dion Dawkins, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 14.824M – We are in the out years of Dawkins.  We could get out of his contract for a 2M savings this year, so if we do anything to this contract we will be hurting that flexibility.  There is no guaranteed month left on this contract, so the Dead money is all prorated signing bonus, and the restructure bonuses from his restructure last year.  Here you can reduce his cap down to 8.2M and see a 6.3M savings.  *I would not touch this contract. 

 

Matt Milano, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 13.34M – Even with his restructure last year there is a 4.66M savings if cut.  He has a 3.5M guarantee trigger on 19th March, of his base salary.  Issue with this contract is only 2 years left and 2 years of void years (carrying dead money from his restructure in 2022).  Can do a simple restructure here as well and drop his base to 6.4M and saves 6.5M against the cap.  *I think the right move here is an extension or something like that over a restructure, put some money on those Void years instead of just dead cap allocation.  Absent addressing the contract length and void years, I would not touch this contract unless necessary.

 

Those are really the Bigg (over 5M in savings) tickets.  Other Restructure contacts are the following (over 2M savings.)

Hyde – 4.3M savings

T. Johnson – 2.5M Savings

D Jones – 2.7M Savings

 

Extension

Matt Milano, 29yrs - as referenced above I would do an extension here, two years left and 2 void years, there is a way to redo this which would likely lower this years cap hit by about 6M, and puts hit actual on contract to play for the next 4 years, instead of 2 and 2 void.  I left it alone for this thought game.

 

Ed Oliver, 26 yrs, 2023 Cap 10.753M, an extension here could lower this cap hit between likely 2 to 6M depending on structure.  That could free max on an extension of call it 7.5M. * I would do this. 

 

So if I only touch the 3 cap tickets I mentioned (Allen, Miller and an Oliver extension) I will save 47.7M against the cap.  And not take on really any long-term financial risk at this point.  That would make the Current Cap Space (top 51) at 27.2M.  Allocate 5M conservative for Draft, that should give about 22.2M to play around in UFA.  That is more than enough to bring in 2-3 top end players. 

 

Next up back to the Position groups with RB then QB, then I will head to the Defense.

 

Past Writeups:

State of the Franchise (23 Jan)

Offensive Line (23 Jan)

WRs/TEs (26 Jan)

Quality work once again my friend. Thank you for the write up. 

[LABILLBACKER]

15 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

Nice.

 

From what I'm hearing, it will cost almost $19M to franchise Edmunds?  If Beane tries to sign him, I can't see him signing for anything less than like $15M per given what Roquan Smith just got.

 

That wouldn't leave much at all for any other signings.  I'd let him walk at this point unless he's willing to take the same deal we gave Milano.

We can't afford Edmunds at 15-20M. There are just too many dire needs at OL.  Time to replace that position with a rookie. 

[BuffaloRebound]

I can’t imagine anybody paying Edmunds $20m per year.  He’s a good player but nowhere near the level of the premier non-rush LB’s like Roquan and Fred Warner.  Would have to be a team with crazy cap space.  Chicago would’ve paid Smith.  Maybe Houston? Pittsburgh? I really can’t think of anybody else who’d pay $20m per year for Edmunds.