2023 Offseason Primer: Cap Tickets (Restructure)

[MAJBobby]

Edit one:  All cap numbers are now updated IAW with the Official Cap announcement at. 224.8M at 1457 30 Jan 2023

 

OK here we are I took a break on the Position Group to do a cap ticket one.  So that way everyone has a little cheat sheep for the Bills Cap Health and tickets that they do have.  I will get back to the position groups, I just wanted to take a little break having already done the WR/TE and OL (which IMO are the two biggest need position groups). 

The standard disclaimer:  I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information.  I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats.  Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future.

 

So here we go …

 

Financials: 

 

Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M

Cap Space (top 51): -20,517,462M (Cap Announced causing this adjustment) (edited in after official number was announced)

 

Cap Tickets (restructure candidates) – Before I get into this I will also put would I do it after the writeup.  I have personally requirements to make a restructure, 1.  Is the player sub 30 years old, 2.  Is there at least 2 years left on contract. 3. Will I be guaranteeing new money (this tends to make me say No to the restructure).

 

Josh Allen, 27 yrs, 2023 Cap 39.772M, - Ok with him it looks like there is 27.5M (base) 8.47M (roster bonus) that are fully guaranteed.  So, he has 35.972M guaranteed this year against that CAP hit of his.  So we could absolutely do a restructure here.  I will run it out for max cap savings, however Bills could elect to do less than what I do here.  If you make his Base 1M and make the Roster and Base Salary Signing Bonuses to prorate out.  I an push 34M into the out years.  He has 5 years outside of this one.  But I think for Simple restructure they must account for allocation this year as well.  So 34M/6 = 5.67M.  So that type of restructure would make Allens Cap hit this year – 10.47M (Saving 29.3M).  Not including the Roster Bonus as part of the restructure and only including the Base makes hit Cap at (18.2M) with saves (21.1M). *I would do this fits my criteria.

 

Stefon Diggs 30 yrs, 2023 Cap 20.277M – This one is a little harder, there is a 7.8M Base and 250K in bonuses that could be restructures.  That would lower his cap hit to 14.4M (saving 5.6M).   There are years left to support he proration – 4, the issue is next year it really looks like that is when this contract was set to do something with when he has a base of 18.5M and the out year right now is after the 2024 season. *I don’t think I am touching this one for only a 5.6M savings at this point.

 

Von Miller 34 yrs, 2023 Cap 18.615M – Here is mainly the restructure of his 13.5M roster bonus as his base is already low.  So if you take that guaranteed roster bonus make it a signing bonus and pro-rate out, it doesn’t affect anything else with his contract, out year remains the same.  You can make his new cap hit at 7.637M and saves 10.864M.  *I would do this.

 

Tre White 28 yrs, 2023 Cap 16.223M – This contract has triggers to it.  Essentially his entire base guarantees on March 22nd 2023.  Reason I mention this is those triggers make the 8.6M base guaranteed, and it important because they will trigger there is no savings with Tre on a release (adds 6M in dead).  So now that makes that base salary restructure capable.  He would have 3 years of contract to pro-rate any restructure over the 3 years.  This would bring his cap number down to 10.3M and saves 5.88M against the 2023 cap.  *I probably only do this if I need another 5.88M for an impact signing, I don’t like restructuring an injured player, I would like to see if he fully regains form next year before doing anything here.  

 

Dion Dawkins, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 14.824M – We are in the out years of Dawkins.  We could get out of his contract for a 2M savings this year, so if we do anything to this contract we will be hurting that flexibility.  There is no guaranteed month left on this contract, so the Dead money is all prorated signing bonus, and the restructure bonuses from his restructure last year.  Here you can reduce his cap down to 8.2M and see a 6.3M savings.  *I would not touch this contract. 

 

Matt Milano, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 13.34M – Even with his restructure last year there is a 4.66M savings if cut.  He has a 3.5M guarantee trigger on 19th March, of his base salary.  Issue with this contract is only 2 years left and 2 years of void years (carrying dead money from his restructure in 2022).  Can do a simple restructure here as well and drop his base to 6.4M and saves 6.5M against the cap.  *I think the right move here is an extension or something like that over a restructure, put some money on those Void years instead of just dead cap allocation.  Absent addressing the contract length and void years, I would not touch this contract unless necessary.

 

Those are really the Bigg (over 5M in savings) tickets.  Other Restructure contacts are the following (over 2M savings.)

Hyde – 4.3M savings

T. Johnson – 2.5M Savings

D Jones – 2.7M Savings

 

Extension

Matt Milano, 29yrs - as referenced above I would do an extension here, two years left and 2 void years, there is a way to redo this which would likely lower this years cap hit by about 6M, and puts hit actual on contract to play for the next 4 years, instead of 2 and 2 void.  I left it alone for this thought game.

 

Ed Oliver, 26 yrs, 2023 Cap 10.753M, an extension here could lower this cap hit between likely 2 to 6M depending on structure.  That could free max on an extension of call it 7.5M. * I would do this. 

 

So if I only touch the 3 cap tickets I mentioned (Allen, Miller and an Oliver extension) I will save 47.7M against the cap.  And not take on really any long-term financial risk at this point.  That would make the Current Cap Space (top 51) at 27.2M.  Allocate 5M conservative for Draft, that should give about 22.2M to play around in UFA.  That is more than enough to bring in 2-3 top end players. 

 

Next up back to the Position groups with RB then QB, then I will head to the Defense.

 

Past Writeups:

State of the Franchise (23 Jan)

Offensive Line (23 Jan)

WRs/TEs (26 Jan)

Edited January 30, 2023 by MAJBobby

[Warriorspikes51]

Great post thank you for that!!

 

 

 

[BBills_88]

OLINE, OLINE !!!!!!

[BuffaloRebound]

Interesting take on an Oliver extension.  Even if we’d be buying low, I think i’d rather see him take the next step in a contract year.  I’d rather have to pay more next year and reward him after taking a leap than pay him after a mediocre year.  

[BrooklynBills]

@MAJBobby Great job again!

 

Restructures: Yes to Allen and Von. No to Diggs, wait til next year

 

Dawkins: Can't do anything that makes it financially harder to move on unfortunately.  Maybe they can figure out a reduction that gives him small guarantees into the 25 season?

 

I like the Milano extension idea and i wonder if those void years are there because they already had this possibility in mind.  Same with a small Hyde extension(I think he will be fine physically).

 

Ed Oliver - they either need to extend him or trade him IMO.  They can't just let him play out his 1 yr / 10 mil deal.  Personally, I'm in the trade camp for Oliver. Just think you can spend that money better.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, BrooklynBills said:

@MAJBobby Great job again!

 

Restructures: Yes to Allen and Von. No to Diggs, wait til next year

 

Dawkins: Can't do anything that makes it financially harder to move on unfortunately.  Maybe they can figure out a reduction that gives him small guarantees into the 25 season?

 

I like the Milano extension idea and i wonder if those void years are there because they already had this possibility in mind.  Same with a small Hyde extension(I think he will be fine physically).

 

Ed Oliver - they either need to extend him or trade him IMO.  They can't just let him play out his 1 yr / 10 mil deal.  Personally, I'm in the trade camp for Oliver. Just think you can spend that money better.

 

Put his $ toward OLine or WR

[corta765]

Did I miss what our new cap number was?

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Put his $ toward OLine or WR

Agreed!  Move him; I would love to see a fairly substantial "mini" overhaul to this team this offseason.  He's one of the names that should go, along with Edmunds.

 

 

[BrooklynBills]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

Put his $ toward OLine or WR

That 10 mil in cap space could get you a nice offensive lineman and a comparable player to ed oliver.  Joe Thuney's first year cap hit was under 5 million.  

 

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Did I miss what our new cap number was?

At the end.

 

If we only do the Allen, Miller and Oliver extension 

 

Cap Space (top 51) at 31.72M

1 minute ago, BrooklynBills said:

That 10 mil in cap space could get you a nice offensive lineman and a comparable player to ed oliver.  Joe Thuney's first year cap hit was under 5 million.  

 

I ran a couple contract games over the weekend. 

 

I was able to add

 

Jawaan Taylor (RT) - 2023 Cap hit 5.5M

Isaac Seumalo (OG) -2023 Cap hit 5M

Ethan Pocic (C) - 2023 Cap Hit 4M.

 

All would have outs in after year 3 and that was structuring a deal that would pay them AAV 1-2M over their projected market value on SPOTRAC.  That would be a brand new Right side and Center for 14M this year in cap hits.  (they doubled roughly in 2024 year).

 

[BrooklynBills]

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

At the end.

 

If we only do the Allen, Miller and Oliver extension 

 

Cap Space (top 51) at 31.72M

I ran a couple contract games over the weekend. 

 

I was able to add

 

Jawaan Taylor (RT) - 2023 Cap hit 5.5M

Isaac Seumalo (OG) -2023 Cap hit 5M

Ethan Pocic (C) - 2023 Cap Hit 4M.

 

All would have outs in after year 3 and that was structuring a deal that would pay them AAV 1-2M over their projected market value on SPOTRAC.  That would be a brand new Right side and Center for 14M this year in cap hits.  (they doubled roughly in 2024 year).

 

I haven't dug into FAs too much yet so I can't comment on the players but they might have to add 3 players. Personally, I like Bates at C, adding 2 starting Gs, and a OT like maybe Fant who can compete with Brown.  I'm not out on Brown yet.  Unfortunately, I think this might be a weak year for OL in the draft so it's either going to be take one early or not at all.

[MAJBobby]

8 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

I haven't dug into FAs too much yet so I can't comment on the players but they might have to add 3 players. Personally, I like Bates at C, adding 2 starting Gs, and a OT like maybe Fant who can compete with Brown.  I'm not out on Brown yet.  Unfortunately, I think this might be a weak year for OL in the draft so it's either going to be take one early or not at all.

I am not sure if you saw my write up on the OL. but the link is in the OP, so that might help a bit as you start looking into the UFAs

[No_Matter_What]

Nice write-up as usual, but you are (as usual ) way too optimistic about some things.

 

Couple of notes.

 

1. I don't think it makes sense to even discuss top51. It's just a temporary thing. I would always count standard roster so we immediately have $1.7 or so less (for two min deal players).

 

2. You need $4M for PS players and let's say $3M for very basic in season moves. Suddenly your cap space looks completely different. Those $22.2M after those basic moves are in fact imo only around $13M or so.

 

3. You say its for 2-3 top end players. I agree, but that means no Edmunds (I guess), and above all that means 10 guys on roster who were on our PS this year. And if you start replacing them with NFL quality players, that means more money.

 

I know that you know this and are aware that this is what other restructures will be required for, I am just pointing it out since it wasn't clear from the OP (to me at least).

 

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by No_Matter_What

[Billz4ever]

6 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Edit one:  All cap numbers are now updated IAW with the Official Cap announcement at. 224.8M at 1457 30 Jan 2023

 

OK here we are I took a break on the Position Group to do a cap ticket one.  So that way everyone has a little cheat sheep for the Bills Cap Health and tickets that they do have.  I will get back to the position groups, I just wanted to take a little break having already done the WR/TE and OL (which IMO are the two biggest need position groups). 

The standard disclaimer:  I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information.  I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats.  Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future.

 

So here we go …

 

Financials: 

 

Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M

Cap Space (top 51): -20,517,462M (Cap Announced causing this adjustment) (edited in after official number was announced)

 

Cap Tickets (restructure candidates) – Before I get into this I will also put would I do it after the writeup.  I have personally requirements to make a restructure, 1.  Is the player sub 30 years old, 2.  Is there at least 2 years left on contract. 3. Will I be guaranteeing new money (this tends to make me say No to the restructure).

 

Josh Allen, 27 yrs, 2023 Cap 39.772M, - Ok with him it looks like there is 27.5M (base) 8.47M (roster bonus) that are fully guaranteed.  So, he has 35.972M guaranteed this year against that CAP hit of his.  So we could absolutely do a restructure here.  I will run it out for max cap savings, however Bills could elect to do less than what I do here.  If you make his Base 1M and make the Roster and Base Salary Signing Bonuses to prorate out.  I an push 34M into the out years.  He has 5 years outside of this one.  But I think for Simple restructure they must account for allocation this year as well.  So 34M/6 = 5.67M.  So that type of restructure would make Allens Cap hit this year – 10.47M (Saving 29.3M).  Not including the Roster Bonus as part of the restructure and only including the Base makes hit Cap at (18.2M) with saves (21.1M). *I would do this fits my criteria.

 

Stefon Diggs 30 yrs, 2023 Cap 20.277M – This one is a little harder, there is a 7.8M Base and 250K in bonuses that could be restructures.  That would lower his cap hit to 14.4M (saving 5.6M).   There are years left to support he proration – 4, the issue is next year it really looks like that is when this contract was set to do something with when he has a base of 18.5M and the out year right now is after the 2024 season. *I don’t think I am touching this one for only a 5.6M savings at this point.

 

Von Miller 34 yrs, 2023 Cap 18.615M – Here is mainly the restructure of his 13.5M roster bonus as his base is already low.  So if you take that guaranteed roster bonus make it a signing bonus and pro-rate out, it doesn’t affect anything else with his contract, out year remains the same.  You can make his new cap hit at 7.637M and saves 10.864M.  *I would do this.

 

Tre White 28 yrs, 2023 Cap 16.223M – This contract has triggers to it.  Essentially his entire base guarantees on March 22nd 2023.  Reason I mention this is those triggers make the 8.6M base guaranteed, and it important because they will trigger there is no savings with Tre on a release (adds 6M in dead).  So now that makes that base salary restructure capable.  He would have 3 years of contract to pro-rate any restructure over the 3 years.  This would bring his cap number down to 10.3M and saves 5.88M against the 2023 cap.  *I probably only do this if I need another 5.88M for an impact signing, I don’t like restructuring an injured player, I would like to see if he fully regains form next year before doing anything here.  

 

Dion Dawkins, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 14.824M – We are in the out years of Dawkins.  We could get out of his contract for a 2M savings this year, so if we do anything to this contract we will be hurting that flexibility.  There is no guaranteed month left on this contract, so the Dead money is all prorated signing bonus, and the restructure bonuses from his restructure last year.  Here you can reduce his cap down to 8.2M and see a 6.3M savings.  *I would not touch this contract. 

 

Matt Milano, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 13.34M – Even with his restructure last year there is a 4.66M savings if cut.  He has a 3.5M guarantee trigger on 19th March, of his base salary.  Issue with this contract is only 2 years left and 2 years of void years (carrying dead money from his restructure in 2022).  Can do a simple restructure here as well and drop his base to 6.4M and saves 6.5M against the cap.  *I think the right move here is an extension or something like that over a restructure, put some money on those Void years instead of just dead cap allocation.  Absent addressing the contract length and void years, I would not touch this contract unless necessary.

 

Those are really the Bigg (over 5M in savings) tickets.  Other Restructure contacts are the following (over 2M savings.)

Hyde – 4.3M savings

T. Johnson – 2.5M Savings

D Jones – 2.7M Savings

 

Extension

Matt Milano, 29yrs - as referenced above I would do an extension here, two years left and 2 void years, there is a way to redo this which would likely lower this years cap hit by about 6M, and puts hit actual on contract to play for the next 4 years, instead of 2 and 2 void.  I left it alone for this thought game.

 

Ed Oliver, 26 yrs, 2023 Cap 10.753M, an extension here could lower this cap hit between likely 2 to 6M depending on structure.  That could free max on an extension of call it 7.5M. * I would do this. 

 

So if I only touch the 3 cap tickets I mentioned (Allen, Miller and an Oliver extension) I will save 47.7M against the cap.  And not take on really any long-term financial risk at this point.  That would make the Current Cap Space (top 51) at 27.2M.  Allocate 5M conservative for Draft, that should give about 22.2M to play around in UFA.  That is more than enough to bring in 2-3 top end players. 

 

Next up back to the Position groups with RB then QB, then I will head to the Defense.

 

Past Writeups:

State of the Franchise (23 Jan)

Offensive Line (23 Jan)

WRs/TEs (26 Jan)

Nice.

 

From what I'm hearing, it will cost almost $19M to franchise Edmunds?  If Beane tries to sign him, I can't see him signing for anything less than like $15M per given what Roquan Smith just got.

 

That wouldn't leave much at all for any other signings.  I'd let him walk at this point unless he's willing to take the same deal we gave Milano.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Billz4ever

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Thanks, great work as always!

 

This is a great “cheat sheep” 😂

[John from Riverside]

Solid work, sir

[Matt_In_NH]

I would not do much with Oliver that involves giving him more guaranteed money even over years, he is impactful at times but mostly not, don't see that changing.

Extending Milano makes too much sense assuming the numbers are reasonable.  Being an all pro season, the timing is not ideal.

 

Bottom line, the over extending is catching up with the Bills.  They could do all of these, and add in some more void money to take cap from future years for today.   All the cap in future years we will want to use then too.   

 

Just doing Allen gets you out of the hole and allows you to sign the draft class.  

 

In general, I would like to avoid a worse situation in a future year.  This team is going to have to get by with aging vets in some positions on min deals and rookies.  They are going to have to find some diamonds in the rough like they did with Poyer.  Spend spend spend on shiny objects is not how you do it long term.  

[RyanC883]

OL and WR!!!  Perhaps a DT if we can trade Oliver.  Some decent DTs in FA.  

[MasterStrategist]

9 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

At the end.

 

If we only do the Allen, Miller and Oliver extension 

 

Cap Space (top 51) at 31.72M

I ran a couple contract games over the weekend. 

 

I was able to add

 

Jawaan Taylor (RT) - 2023 Cap hit 5.5M

Isaac Seumalo (OG) -2023 Cap hit 5M

Ethan Pocic (C) - 2023 Cap Hit 4M.

 

All would have outs in after year 3 and that was structuring a deal that would pay them AAV 1-2M over their projected market value on SPOTRAC.  That would be a brand new Right side and Center for 14M this year in cap hits.  (they doubled roughly in 2024 year).

 

Great write up and analysis!

 

Only disagreement is on Jawaan Taylor.  He doesn't impress me.  

 

1. I would release Morse, Neal, and Maketevich.

2. Don't resign Poyer or Edmunds

3. Extend Oliver, as mentioned

4. Restructure Josh and Von, as mentioned

5. Use remaining FA money on a starting C, G, S, MLB, rotational/depth RB, and backup DE (ideally with speed).

6. Move Benford to safety, likely as a primary backup year 1

7. 1st-4th rounds of draft: RT (with guard versatility), Wr, 3-tech DT, and DE.

8. Rest of draft: Best slot WR/gadget type, 2 CBs, and LB or RB depth

 

Most important: improve OL play, get 1-2 additional WR playmakers (Shakir will also take more on)

 

Next: get more dynamic with pass rush/DL play.  Yes, we need to keep putting resources here, ie: round 3-5 type draft picks and 1 yr rental types.

 

Concern: MLB without Tremaine.  I'd rather us sign a middle of the road vet type, but mitigate this concern by...

 

Transition defense: move to a dime defense on 3rd/obvious passing downs.  Either a drafted CB, or Benford transitioning to a safety/CB hybrid role would fill the dime (ie:MLB becomes less important and Milano remains on the field).  Gets more speed and athletic ability, similar to Pats/Chiefs/Steeler defenses recently.  

 

 

[MAJBobby]

12 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

Nice.

 

From what I'm hearing, it will cost almost $19M to franchise Edmunds?  If Beane tries to sign him, I can't see him signing for anything less than like $15M per given what Roquan Smith just got.

 

That wouldn't leave much at all for any other signings.  I'd let him walk at this point unless he's willing to take the same deal we gave Milano.

The AAV can be deceptive though. You can get a 15M AAV for a small cap hit in year one. I don’t Franchise Tag Edmunds either will get to that in future. But the franchise tag candidate to me is Poyer. That hit for safety is much manageable