Diggs' production in 2023

[Inigo Montoya]

Diggs has been frustrated as the season came to an end about his lack of involvement in the offense.  Diggs had another monster season and is more than just another WR1, he is a top three WR in the NFL.  Diggs finished 4th in the NFL in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and tied for 3rd in TDs.  He did that playing only 16 regular season games.

 

The Bills played 18 games (if you throw out the Damar Hamlin game) in the 2022 season including the playoffs.  That gives us two 9 game halves of the season to compare. I divvied up the stats to see if there was a significant difference in the two halves.  There was definitely a big drop in production over the second half of the season.

 

First 9 games;

Average targets per game;  11

Average receptions per game;  8

TDs;  7

Average yds per game;   109.4

 

Last 9 Games;

Average targets per game: 8.2

Average receptions per game;  5.2

TDs;  4

Average yds per game;  65.8

 

The question is why did Diggs production drop off? There are a couple of things that were a factor, Josh injured his elbow near the end of the 8th game of the season and that injury seemed to linger well into the second half of the season.  The other issue was a few bad weather games where conditions were not ideal for an efficient passing game.  I'm not sure if Josh's elbow and weather can account for all that drop off though.

 

That leaves 5 possibilities for Diggs 2nd half decline;

1.   Defenses did something different later in the season to slow Diggs 

2.  Dorsey moved away from Diggs-centric offensive game plans

3.  The O-line play deteriorated and the passing game suffered

4.  Allen regressed in the second half of the season

5.  Diggs regressed in the second half of the season

 

It could be combination of some or all of them, but I think #1 and #5 are the least likely.  Every defense tries to take Diggs out of the game and I think Diggs was still getting open late in the year.  Even when Diggs is "covered" he still seems to catch the ball. 

 

This is something that Dorsey is going to have to figure out this off season.  We have a tight cap now and the answer on offense is probably not going to be adding more weapons for Josh, but rather getting more out of the weapons we already have.

 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Inigo Montoya

[Warriorspikes51]

Diggs was overthrown on an open 40+ yard play early against Cincy.  He was also overthrown on 2 passes to the end zone 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I think the solution is to get another top flight WR in here ASAP. 

 

Regardless if Diggs is mad or not, the fact is he is taken out of too many big games. 

 

It's an arms-race, and Diggs isn't enough. 

[Warriorspikes51]

16 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think the solution is to get another top flight WR in here ASAP. 

 

Regardless if Diggs is mad or not, the fact is he is taken out of too many big games. 

 

It's an arms-race, and Diggs isn't enough. 

This & Allen went away from trying to get Diggs the ball unless it was man coverage with no safety help 

[Nextmanup]

19 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Diggs was overthrown on an open 40+ yard play early against Cincy.  He was also overthrown on 2 passes to the end zone 

Josh overthrows (and under throws) a lot of receivers!  It's a part of who he is. You have to take the good with the bad.

 

Ironically, despite his huge arm, he tends to under throw really long shots; watch how often a receiver slows allowing the DB to close before the ball gets there.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

33 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think the solution is to get another top flight WR in here ASAP. 

 

Regardless if Diggs is mad or not, the fact is he is taken out of too many big games. 

 

It's an arms-race, and Diggs isn't enough. 

Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, OBJ, DJ Moore, Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, 1st Round Pick, Other? 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

31 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Diggs has been frustrated as the season came to an end about his lack of involvement in the offense.  Diggs had another monster season and is more that just an WR1, he is a top three WR in the NFL.

 

His 2022 stats;

Targets; 154

Receptions;  108

Yards;  1,429

Yds per Reception,  13.2

TDs;  11

 

To put those numbers in perspective, Diggs finished 4th in the NFL in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and tied for 3rd in TDs.

 

The Bills played 18 games (if you throw out the Damar Hamlin game) in the 2022 season including the playoffs.  That gives us two 9 game halves of the season to compare. I divvied up the stats to see if there was a significant difference in the two halves.  There was definitely a big drop in production over the second half of the season.

 

First 9 games;

Average targets per game;  11

Average receptions per game;  8

TDs;  7

Average yds per game;   109.4

 

Last 9 Games;

Average targets per game: 8.2

Average receptions per game;  5.2

TDs;  4

Average yds per game;  65.8

 

The question is why did Diggs production drop off? There are a couple of things that were a factor, Josh injured his elbow near the end of the 8th game of the season and that injury seemed to linger well into the second half of the season.  The other issue was a few bad weather games where conditions were not ideal for an efficient passing game.  I'm not sure if Josh's elbow and weather can account for all that drop off though.

 

That leaves 5 possibilities for Diggs 2nd half decline;

1.   Defenses did something different later in the season to slow Diggs 

2.  Dorsey moved away from Diggs-centric offensive game plans

3.  The O-line play deteriorated and the passing game suffered

4.  Allen regressed in the second half of the season

5.  Diggs regressed in the second half of the season

 

It could be combination of some or all of them, but I think #1 and #5 are the least likely.  Every defense tries to take Diggs out of the game and I think Diggs was still getting open late in the year.  Even when Diggs is "covered" he still seems to catch the ball. 

 

This is something that Dorsey is going to have to figure out this off season.  We have a tight cap now and the answer on offense is probably not going to be adding more weapons for Josh, but rather getting more out of the weapons we already have.

 

 

 Last year was very similar in ypg where his production dropped off a cliff. But this time his targets and receptions had a smaller drop compared to this year & TDs had a slight increase.

 

Another thing Diggs finished 5th in targets this year, but would've finished 4 if the Cincy game wasn't canceled. Last year he was 5th, in 2020 he was 1st. Average targets per game by year: 10.2, 9.1, 9.6. Targets have been pretty consistent since he's been here. On to last year.

 

 

First 9 games:

Average targets per game: 9.6

Average receptions per game: 6.3

TDs: 4

Average yards per game: 83.3

 

Last 10 games:

Average targets per game: 8.5

Average receptions per game: 5.3

TDs: 6

Average yards per game: 54.2

 

 

You would think weather plays a role in his ypg decrease as the year goes on.

 

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

13 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Last year was very similar in ypg where his production dropped off a cliff. But this time his targets and receptions had a smaller drop compared to this year & TDs had a slight increase.

 

Another thing Diggs finished 5th in targets this year, but would've finished 4 if the Cincy game wasn't canceled. Last year he was 5th, in 2020 he was 1st. Average targets per game by year: 10.2, 9.1, 9.6. Targets have been pretty consistent since he's been here. On to last year.

 

 

First 9 games:

Average targets per game: 9.6

Average receptions per game: 6.3

TDs: 4

Average yards per game: 83.3

 

Last 10 games:

Average targets per game: 8.5

Average receptions per game: 5.3

TDs: 6

Average yards per game: 54.2

 

 

You would think weather plays a role in his ypg decrease as the year goes on.

 

 

 

Weather definitely plays a role because unfortunately Josh doesn’t pass as well in rain/ snow . He’s fine in the cold but needs dry conditions. I had a bad feeling about the Bengals game when I saw it would snow the whole time. 

[dave mcbride]

58 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Diggs has been frustrated as the season came to an end about his lack of involvement in the offense.  Diggs had another monster season and is more than just another WR1, he is a top three WR in the NFL.

 

His 2022 stats;

Targets; 154

Receptions;  108

Yards;  1,429

Yds per Reception,  13.2

TDs;  11

 

To put those numbers in perspective, Diggs finished 4th in the NFL in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and tied for 3rd in TDs.

 

The Bills played 18 games (if you throw out the Damar Hamlin game) in the 2022 season including the playoffs.  That gives us two 9 game halves of the season to compare. I divvied up the stats to see if there was a significant difference in the two halves.  There was definitely a big drop in production over the second half of the season.

 

First 9 games;

Average targets per game;  11

Average receptions per game;  8

TDs;  7

Average yds per game;   109.4

 

Last 9 Games;

Average targets per game: 8.2

Average receptions per game;  5.2

TDs;  4

Average yds per game;  65.8

 

The question is why did Diggs production drop off? There are a couple of things that were a factor, Josh injured his elbow near the end of the 8th game of the season and that injury seemed to linger well into the second half of the season.  The other issue was a few bad weather games where conditions were not ideal for an efficient passing game.  I'm not sure if Josh's elbow and weather can account for all that drop off though.

 

That leaves 5 possibilities for Diggs 2nd half decline;

1.   Defenses did something different later in the season to slow Diggs 

2.  Dorsey moved away from Diggs-centric offensive game plans

3.  The O-line play deteriorated and the passing game suffered

4.  Allen regressed in the second half of the season

5.  Diggs regressed in the second half of the season

 

It could be combination of some or all of them, but I think #1 and #5 are the least likely.  Every defense tries to take Diggs out of the game and I think Diggs was still getting open late in the year.  Even when Diggs is "covered" he still seems to catch the ball. 

 

This is something that Dorsey is going to have to figure out this off season.  We have a tight cap now and the answer on offense is probably not going to be adding more weapons for Josh, but rather getting more out of the weapons we already have.

 

 

 

There were two really bad weather games - Chicago and the Jets at home. He had only 5 total catches and seven targets in those two games. That'll bring down the average a fair bit. Also, there was the weird Cleveland game where he didn't get targeted until the final play of the first half and Allen only threw it 27 times. The Bills ran it down the Browns' throats in that game -- 33 carries for 171 yards. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Hopkins is the right idea.

 

Cooks might be the second choice, but concussion history takes him off the list.

 

Jeudy, is he really a #1 - not so far and it will be telling if Denver wants a first for him or takes anything lower than that.

 

Mike Thomas - Injuries and age

OBJ - Injuries and age

 

Im not sure if the Raiders would move off Adams, or if we’ll ever get that kind of WR #1 movement again. 

[US Egg]

No prima donna type antics be fine for me.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Diggs was overthrown on an open 40+ yard play early against Cincy.  He was also overthrown on 2 passes to the end zone 

There was a reason . Pro bowler Saffold got beat clean and Allen had to make a difficult off platform throw while being hit.

[2003Contenders]

Call me crazy -- but given the cap issues ahead, I am not excited about spending tons of money on another receiver, when that money needs to be better spent on fortifying the lines.

 

Josh is one of those QBs who elevates the value of his receivers. Not saying the Bill should dumpster dive -- but I would rather spend wisely on a RELIABLE receiver who runs decent routes and CATCHES the ball rather than a perceived stud. Maybe a guy who has been in a lousy situation with a bad QB for his career -- or a young guy that is ready to bust out with Josh and the surrounding talent at WR/TE to help him.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Call me crazy -- but given the cap issues ahead, I am not excited about spending tons of money on another receiver, when that money needs to be better spent on fortifying the lines.

 

Josh is one of those QBs who elevates the value of his receivers. Not saying the Bill should dumpster dive -- but I would rather spend wisely on a RELIABLE receiver who runs decent routes and CATCHES the ball rather than a perceived stud. Maybe a guy who has been in a lousy situation with a bad QB for his career -- or a young guy that is ready to bust out with Josh and the surrounding talent at WR/TE to help him.

 

DeAndre Hopkins would be a huge boost to this team. 

 

And the Bills could spend remaining draft capital on Offensive Line. 

 

But you're right, an OLine overhaul is coming with Morse getting older, Saffold is near the end of his career and was a 1-year deal anyways, RT is a problem. 

 

 

[Rebel101]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Diggs has been frustrated as the season came to an end about his lack of involvement in the offense.  Diggs had another monster season and is more than just another WR1, he is a top three WR in the NFL.

 

His 2022 stats;

Targets; 154

Receptions;  108

Yards;  1,429

Yds per Reception,  13.2

TDs;  11

 

To put those numbers in perspective, Diggs finished 4th in the NFL in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and tied for 3rd in TDs.

 

The Bills played 18 games (if you throw out the Damar Hamlin game) in the 2022 season including the playoffs.  That gives us two 9 game halves of the season to compare. I divvied up the stats to see if there was a significant difference in the two halves.  There was definitely a big drop in production over the second half of the season.

 

First 9 games;

Average targets per game;  11

Average receptions per game;  8

TDs;  7

Average yds per game;   109.4

 

Last 9 Games;

Average targets per game: 8.2

Average receptions per game;  5.2

TDs;  4

Average yds per game;  65.8

 

The question is why did Diggs production drop off? There are a couple of things that were a factor, Josh injured his elbow near the end of the 8th game of the season and that injury seemed to linger well into the second half of the season.  The other issue was a few bad weather games where conditions were not ideal for an efficient passing game.  I'm not sure if Josh's elbow and weather can account for all that drop off though.

 

That leaves 5 possibilities for Diggs 2nd half decline;

1.   Defenses did something different later in the season to slow Diggs 

2.  Dorsey moved away from Diggs-centric offensive game plans

3.  The O-line play deteriorated and the passing game suffered

4.  Allen regressed in the second half of the season

5.  Diggs regressed in the second half of the season

 

It could be combination of some or all of them, but I think #1 and #5 are the least likely.  Every defense tries to take Diggs out of the game and I think Diggs was still getting open late in the year.  Even when Diggs is "covered" he still seems to catch the ball. 

 

This is something that Dorsey is going to have to figure out this off season.  We have a tight cap now and the answer on offense is probably not going to be adding more weapons for Josh, but rather getting more out of the weapons we already have.

 

 

 

Well we began trying to run the ball because that’s what McDermott thinks a team needs to do. Which didn’t allow the passing game to ever get into rhythm while Dorsey is just scheming deep balls on 3rd and short. Or 4 down territories allowing our bull#### OLine to fold. It seems our coaching staff doesn’t actually grasps what’s going on, and is only doing what they think they’re suppose to do. 

[Airseven]

Allen seemed shot both mentally and physically down the stretch of the season. Diggs's lack of involvement falls on Allen - his poor decision-making, his inaccuracy, his jumpy feet.

 

That being said, the apparent frustration gets overblown. There's every reason to expect Diggs to put up 100+ catches, 1,100+ yards, and 8+ TDs next season. 

[AlfaBill]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There was a reason . Pro bowler Saffold got beat clean and Allen had to make a difficult off platform throw while being hit.

Nah. Josh constantly over/under throws receivers. He sucks and we should move on. 

30 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Weather definitely plays a role because unfortunately Josh doesn’t pass as well in rain/ snow . He’s fine in the cold but needs dry conditions. I had a bad feeling about the Bengals game when I saw it would snow the whole time. 

What Qb pass as well in wet conditions as on dry conditions?

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

Nah. Josh constantly over/under throws receivers. He sucks and we should move on. 

What Qb pass as well in wet conditions as on dry conditions?

Probably none, but the fact is Josh seems greatly affected by wind/ rain snow. That’s a problem for an outdoor team in a bad weather city that depends on their dynamic QB for about 90% of their success. 

[Charles Romes]

Starting with the Cleveland game where Diggs had zero targets 28 minutes in they tried to consciously develop secondary targets and the running game.  The O had become too Diggs centric and it was exposed in the first Jets game. For the most part it worked until Cincy. Offense was more balanced and there weee signs of a running game. 

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, OBJ, DJ Moore, Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, 1st Round Pick, Other? 

 

Brandon Cooks produces everywhere he goes, even with poor QB play.  I find it strange that he can't get a team to commit to him long term.