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Interesting Article on Big Money QBs


IronyAbounds

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9 minutes ago, IronyAbounds said:


Id recommend quoting some of the bigger points you are looking to discuss.

 

From reading through things, this year was certainly a year where cheaper QBs had a lot of success. BUT Burrow and Hurts are due more massive paydays probably this offseason, Mahomes is still cruising, and if you look at the past several years highly paid QBs have done well. 


For the Bills, Josh’s contract will make constructing a team around him tough for a few years but then his contract will fall below Burrow, Hurts, Lamar, etc and will be a relative bargain again. 
 

If you mean Beane’s quotes about the Bengals roster, I do think he was getting a little defensive and probably should have deflected. But I don’t think it is terribly incriminating, it is pretty on the nose as to why they have so much talent on their roster just probably could have been said a little better.

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"Bills weren’t ready for the Bengals

It’s worth looking back at the Bills’ loss last week to the Bengals, and how badly the Bills were outcoached:"

 

Very concerning because the Bengals made our whole coaching staff look pedestrian. I also think some of our players are overrated, although that can be coaching as well. Using a hockey reference, look how Krueger was dismantling Jeff Skinner's career. Now with Granato, he's back to top form.

 

Yes, very concerning!!

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 It’s altogether too easy to say “find a good, cheap QB and spend your cap elsewhere.” The reality is that this is very difficult to achieve as there are few good, cheap QB’s who are NFL ready.

 

We all know the term "Monday morning quarterback." In the same vein, a "January GM" (like the author of that article) knows exactly what every team should have done last off-season.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

We all know what the drought years looked like.  It’s altogether too easy to say “find a good, cheap QB and spend your cap elsewhere.” The reality is that this is very difficult to achieve as there are few good, cheap QB’s who are NFL ready.

Right. It’s true in an obvious way that you are better off with a very good QB on a rookie contract than with one on a first megadeal. But there’s no prescription for team building here. “Draft a guy like Mahomes or Allen or Burrow who will be ready to perform at an elite level by his second season, ride the wave of success in Seasons 2-4, then start all over again” isn’t a recipe for success. Setting aside almost 20 years of the Pats defying the competition cycle, about the best you can realistically hope for is something like the Packers pattern since Rodgers took over: great teams, down years in which you go 7-9 while clearing deadwood/bad contracts, then a rebound to true SB competitor again. Andy Reid and Mahomes look like possible successors to the Pats dynasty, but there’s a loooong way to go before they hit that status. I’d expect the Packers/Rodgers pattern both there and in Buffalo. And that’s a pretty damn good pattern from where I sit. 

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2 hours ago, LEBills said:


Id recommend quoting some of the bigger points you are looking to discuss.

 

 

 

"The Bills clearly were not ready for the snow on either side of the ball. While Joe Burrow averaged a lightning-quick 2.5 seconds to throw, Josh Allen held the ball for 3.2 seconds on average and had the most deep throws of the eight quarterbacks last weekend (average 10.3 air yards)."

 

Was this bad playcalling? Josh's inclination to go vertical rather than checking off, or simply the Bengals defense? Could be a combination of all three, but it does show how a team can try and thwart pressure. KC found a way to get to Burrow, so trying to throw quick doesn't always work, but it seems Josh did hold the ball too long against the Bengals.

 

"The Bills’ run defense was consistently blown off the line of scrimmage. In the regular season, the Bills allowed the fewest yards before contact (0.8 yards per carry). On Sunday, Joe Mixon averaged 2.6 rush yards before contact, his most in three years. The Bills also allowed a season-high 85 rushing yards before contact. Perhaps they needed to wear different cleats."

 

Bad D-Line and perhaps lack of preparation for the conditions.

 

"'They right now are on the advantage of a rookie quarterback contract,” GM Brandon Beane said of the Bengals. “Without getting too much into their build, I don’t want to suck bad enough to have to get Ja’Marr Chase. I would love to have him, but you’ve got to go through some lean years to do that.”

Beane will probably regret making those remarks. It’s bad form to call out another team, and you don’t need a top-five pick to find an elite receiver, as proven by Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Diggs, Deebo Samuel, D.K. Metcalf, and many others not drafted in the top of the first round.

Beane made a big trade for Diggs three years ago but hasn’t taken a receiver higher than the fourth round in any of the last five drafts, so his complaint rings hollow.'"

 

This strikes me as simply making excuses. You don't have to such badly to achieve a good draft and Beane's drafts recent years have been mediocre at best. KC isn't on the advantage of a rookie QB contract, and yet they continue to advance further than the Bills year after year.

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Regardless of the size of the QB's deal, the trick is drafting well and getting major contributions out of 3 or 4 players every year that are on cheap rookie deals.  The Bills have consistently failed at this and to add insult to injury McDermott hesitates to play rookies.  The player acquisition problems are on Beane.    

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Forget where I saw the stat but since "rookie contracts" have become a thing like 12 years ago, only 2 QB's have won superbowls while on them. So while it would be obviously ideal to win with a QB on a rookie deal, it's unlikely. 

 

I'd rather roll into the playoffs with an all star QB than roll the dice on a rookie/unproven guy with weapons around him. 

 

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It is great to pay your up and coming QB on the cheap rookie deal (Hurts, Burrow,...) and fine to pay your superstar QB (Mahomes, Allen, ...).

 

The problem is when you overpay a QB that is good but not great (Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray), and you are stuck paying them elite QB $ without the elite QB results.

 

You are then in the quandary of "he's not good enough but there is nobody else out there that is better"

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1 hour ago, ticketssince61 said:

It is great to pay your up and coming QB on the cheap rookie deal (Hurts, Burrow,...) and fine to pay your superstar QB (Mahomes, Allen, ...).

 

The problem is when you overpay a QB that is good but not great (Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray), and you are stuck paying them elite QB $ without the elite QB results.

 

You are then in the quandary of "he's not good enough but there is nobody else out there that is better"

Great point(s)! would add Dakota as a notable case of overpaying "middle range" QBs...

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In short… the bills missed their chance to blow cap on talent with rookie deal Allen.
 

Now they have to get lucky with; 

- late draft picks turning into high impact players

- value free agents that out play their contracts 

- vets already on big deals staying on the field and playing up to the deals

- and we must hope that Allen gets even better than he is now. 

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13 hours ago, IronyAbounds said:

It's a really dumb article.

 

Josh Allen's cap hit in 2020 was $5M, 30th in the NFL for QB's.

Josh Allen's cap hit in 2021 was $10M, 17th in the NFL for QB's.

Josh Allen's cap hit in 2022 was $16M, 13th in the NFL for QB's.

 

The failure of the Buffalo Bills to win the Superbowl in the last 3 years has had nothing to do with Josh Allen's "big money contract."  It has had everything to do with a team/coaching that just wasn't good enough

 

Now, going forward, yes Josh's contract becomes more of a cap burden.  But you know what?  We saw what it looked like having a QB not worth a contract that could be a cap burden.  So unless the plan was "find another franchise QB" which resulted in the worst team in the NFL for 17 straight non-playoff seasons, you have to figure it out.

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13 hours ago, LEBills said:


For the Bills, Josh’s contract will make constructing a team around him tough for a few years but then his contract will fall below Burrow, Hurts, Lamar, etc and will be a relative bargain again. 
 

 

We will get a couple "bargain" years before he is due another contract. Rinse and repeat. Nothing beats a good young QB on the rookie deal. It's too bad the Bills couldn't make it to the Super Bowl like the Chiefs x2, Bengals and Eagles x2 and Rams were all able to while their QB's were on rookie deals. 

 

The last six super bowls have all featured teams with QB's on rookie deals.

 

2022-Hurts

2021-Burrow

2020-Mahomes

2019-Mahomes

2018-Goff

2017-Wentz/Foles

 

2016- Brady and Matt Ryan neither QB on rookie deal

 

2015- Newton

2014- Wilson

2013- Wilson

2012- Flacco and Kaepernick

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

We will get a couple "bargain" years before he is due another contract. Rinse and repeat. Nothing beats a good young QB on the rookie deal. It's too bad the Bills couldn't make it to the Super Bowl like the Chiefs x2, Bengals and Eagles x2 and Rams were all able to while their QB's were on rookie deals. 

 

The last six super bowls have all featured teams with QB's on rookie deals.

 

2022-Hurts

2021-Burrow

2020-Mahomes

2019-Mahomes

2018-Goff

2017-Wentz/Foles

 

2016- Brady and Matt Ryan neither QB on rookie deal

 

2015- Newton

2014- Wilson

2013- Wilson

2012- Flacco and Kaepernick

 

 

 

 Wentz doesn't get the credit though, that win is with a veteran Foles playing. The rest are the runner ups except for the back to back QBs each went 1-1 and the other where both were on rookie deals so that was a guaranteed winner. 3-6 the QBs on rookie deals were, excluding the Foles win. This shows that ultimately it pays to have the more experienced & more expensive QB by a 2 to 1 margin.

 

 

 

 

 

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The problem is not nor will it ever be Josh's contract. It was always inevitable to pay him. Yes we kinda wasted the cheap rookie contract years but it's how we deal with the future. We will be drafting important "rookie contract" guys to surround Josh. This coaching staff or whoever is in charge down the road must ensure we don't also waste those.

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