Reassessing the Over-Reactions to the Divisional Round

[Billz4ever]

19 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Dead serious, Super Bowl.

Great thought, but how does Von or Hyde change Josh getting hit and constantly pressured by a 4 or even 3-man rush?  We scored 10 points and unless those guys can play on the O-line or receiver, not much is going to change that.

[Eastport bills]

3 hours ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

Now that the Championship games are over, I'd like to hear opinions on:

1. Are the Bills inside or outside the top tier of the AFC?  (Did the Bills have a bad game against the Bengals or are the Bills clearly inferior to the Bengals & Chiefs?)
2. What's the take on the Eagles?  (Have they been tested yet?  Played the 5th string QB for SF!! (Purdy w/no arm!)  Now they will play the Chiefs - who are so banged up they are thanking God there is 2 weeks until the SB.)

 

My Take:

1. The Bills are in the conversation!  They played their worst game since the Indy game early in 2021.  They were 14-4 this year (not 4-14).  Unfortunately that last game will stay in our mouths until September.
2. The Eagles have had it easy this year and I honestly don't know if they're as good as the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills.  However, much like their season, they will be facing a diminished opponent in their next game (wounded Chiefs).  Maybe a healthier Bengals team would have been a more formidable opponent for them.  Can Mahomes work his magic one more week?

The Bills are relevant only because they have a HOF QB and a reasonable surrounding cast of skill players with a HOF receiver. Their coaches have been good motivators but poor at game planning and talent evaluation. They took a step backward this year and spent vital cap resources doing it. Now when changes have to be made we’ll be doing it on the cheap. The GM, coaching staff and core players have to be better and support the newcomers that will probably determine whether we’ll continue to be competitive with the top teams. I don’t have confidence in Frazier in a big spot unless we can rush the passer. Our D-line couldn’t against Cinn and they buried us.

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Billz4ever said:

Great thought, but how does Von or Hyde change Josh getting hit and constantly pressured by a 4 or even 3-man rush?  We scored 10 points and unless those guys can play on the O-line or receiver, not much is going to change that.

A different Offensive game plan, more similar to what the Bengals did would have worked fine in those conditions. 

[Billz4ever]

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Thank you. The KC rush hasn’t gotten to Josh the last 3 times. He’s a lot more elusive than Burrow and far more dangerous off script. The coaching in the playoffs was a C and an F. 

The KC rush sacked Burrow 5 times and Chris Jones looked like he was getting held on every play.  Josh was getting pressured by a four and even a THREE man rush against Cincy.

 

Our D barely sniffed Burrow the entire game.

 

We were dominated on both sides of the LOS against Cincy.  That's not changing against KC.

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Billz4ever said:

The KC rush sacked Burrow 5 times and Chris Jones looked like he was getting held on every play.  Josh was getting pressured by a four and even a THREE man rush against Cincy.

 

Our D barely sniffed Burrow the entire game.

 

We were dominated on both sides of the LOS against Cincy.  That's not changing against KC.

Hasn’t happened Vs KC, and the Bills already played them this year. The Bills did fine because Allen is better at escaping the rush and off script plays than Joe Burrow. Different matchup. 

[Billz4ever]

7 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Hasn’t happened Vs KC, and the Bills already played them this year. The Bills did fine because Allen is better at escaping the rush and off script plays than Joe Burrow. Different matchup. 

To say the Bills were playing the same football at the end of the year as they were playing when we played KC early in the year with a healthy Von Miller and Daq on the line is laughable.

 

How did escaping the rush and off script plays work out against Cincy?  They didn't. Like at all. Allen was being pressured and was on the run all game.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Billz4ever

[Billsfan1972]

13 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Thank you. The KC rush hasn’t gotten to Josh the last 3 times. He’s a lot more elusive than Burrow and far more dangerous off script. The coaching in the playoffs was a C and an F. 

People now would rather wallow in misery & say the Bills are not in the same league as Cincy & KC, then say anything bad/negative about McD.😝

[ExiledInIllinois]

Joe Burrow's hero balk blows chunks. Why Mahomes is moving on. 

 

Give it time, Josh will move on farther than Joe. 

 

Joe is done! 

 

All I want is McD just to simply channel his inner Lee Elia for once... And I am cool. Got me hooked for life:

 

"What I'm tryin' to say is don't rip them *****in' guys out there. Rip me. If you wanna rip somebody, rip my *****in' ass. But don't rip them *****in' guys 'cause they're givin' everything they can give. And right now they're tryin' to do more than God gave 'em, and that's why we make the simple mistakes. That's exactly why."

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

To say the Bills were playing the same football at the end of the year as they were playing when we played KC early in the year with a healthy Von Miller and Daq on the line is laughable.

 

How did escaping the rush and off script plays work out against Cincy?  

And let me guess when anyone questioned the Bills from the bye week on, you were posting "Just Win Baby" or similar?

[Boatdrinks]

6 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

To say the Bills were playing the same football at the end of the year as they were playing when we played KC early in the year with a healthy Von Miller and Daq on the line is laughable.

Not saying they were playing the same, and Miller obviously had a huge role in that game. A lot of issues were on coaching , however and to ignore that would be silly. The Bills still have Josh Allen. As great a game as Chris Jones had for KC Vs the Bengals still left the Bengals with possession at the 2 minute warning in a tie game. A dubious play call on 3rd and 3 ruined their chances combined with a dumb PF penalty on D afterwards. The QB is still THE most important thing and good coaching can find a way to win. A perfect game is rarely required to win, even in playoff games. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Boatdrinks

[Billz4ever]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And let me guess when anyone questioned the Bills from the bye week on, you were posting "Just Win Baby" or similar?

 

You guessed wrong.

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Not saying they were playing the same, and Miller obviously had a huge role in that game. A lot of issues were on coaching , however and to ignore that would be silly. The Bills still have Josh Allen. As great a game as Chris Jones has for KC Vs the Bengals still left Cincinnati with possession at the 2 minute warning in a tie game. A dubious play call on 3rd and 3 ruined their chances combined with a dumb PF penalty on D afterwards. The QB is still THE most important thing and good coaching can find a way to win. A perfect game is rarely required to win, even in playoff games. 

A QB with no blocking is going to struggle and I don't care who it is.  When the D-line can get home with a 3-man rush, with 8 in coverage and receivers blanketed, you're going to have a bad night. The results speak for themselves.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Billz4ever

[Billz4ever]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Do I need to check your posts after the bye week?  You're telling me that you were posting that the Bills were in trouble?  Just asking.

Yep, and was repeatedly getting flamed for it because I knew how that play was going to translate into playoff football.  Now here we are.

[2003Contenders]

There was a knee-jerk part of me after the game last week that said "it was just a bad day at the office" for the team. We routinely have one of those horrific games every year when the Bills get blown out by a team they should be able to handle. Last year it was the Colts. The year before, the Titans. Even dating back to the Kelly-era Bills we would have one of those games every year, usually get handled by a team like Pittsburgh or Kansas City. We did not have any such game this year (losing all 3 games in the regular season by 3 points or less). That is ... until it really mattered, in the playoffs.

 

But more careful inspection certainly shows the pattern of the defense coming up small in the playoffs. As many on here have pointed out, the game plan against the Bengals really was bad -- especially on defense, where DBs were playing a good 10 yards off the receivers, which allowed Burrow to get rid of the ball quickly. They should have known better after having just played the Bengals a few weeks before, and the Ravens had even provided a solid blueprint to beat Cinci in the Wildcard round. I know Frazier and McD have their preferred defensive scheme, but of they are going to be competitive against top teams, they are going to have to learn to be "multiple" and adapt based on the competition.

 

Offensively, everything starts with getting the OL corrected, Josh masked a number of those deficiencies with his off-radar escapability during the regular season. The Bengals made him feel uncomfortable from the start. In addition to correcting the protections, the receivers need to do a better job in "fire" situations.  I notice that when Mahomes is in trouble there is almost always a receiver coming back to him as an outlet. In the Bills offense -- not so much.

 

Getting back to the Cinci game itself... as we know, these games are heavily dictated by emotion. I am not sure that the Bills ever quite recovered emotionally from the Hamlin injury. They got lucky the following week with 2 huge kick returns against the Pats -- and in the Wild Card round struggled to get past the Dolphins with a 3rd string QB. We saw yesterday what the Eagles were able to do against a 3rd string QB. To start the Divisional game the Bengals marched down the field and scored easily -- the Bills responded with a 3-and-out series, and the Bengals marched down the field and scored again to go 14-0. You could just see the body language on almost every player at that time (midway through the 1st quarter) -- they knew it was over.

 

[Boatdrinks]

11 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

 

You guessed wrong.

A QB with no blocking is going to struggle and I don't care who it is.  When the D-line can get home with a 3-man rush, with 8 in coverage and receivers blanketed, you're going to have a bad night. The results speak for themselves.

Wrong. There were OL, he didn’t have air in front of him. Bengals used a quick passing game and the Bills could have too. There were no unblockable defenders in that game. I didn’t see Bruce Smith or Deacon Jones out there in a Bengals  uniform. No JJ Watt in his prime. Coaching and scheme matter and the Bengals scheme worked to perfection because the Bills gave them exactly the look they wanted time and again. You tip your hat to them , but their chess pieces are not superior or unstoppable. 

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

There was a knee-jerk part of me after the game last week that said "it was just a bad day at the office" for the team. We routinely have one of those horrific games every year when the Bills get blown out by a team they should be able to handle. Last year it was the Colts. The year before, the Titans. Even dating back to the Kelly-era Bills we would have one of those games every year, usually get handled by a team like Pittsburgh or Kansas City. We did not have any such game this year (losing all 3 games in the regular season by 3 points or less). That is ... until it really mattered, in the playoffs.

 

But more careful inspection certainly shows the pattern of the defense coming up small in the playoffs. As many on here have pointed out, the game plan against the Bengals really was bad -- especially on defense, where DBs were playing a good 10 yards off the receivers, which allowed Burrow to get rid of the ball quickly. They should have known better after having just played the Bengals a few weeks before, and the Ravens had even provided a solid blueprint to beat Cinci in the Wildcard round. I know Frazier and McD have their preferred defensive scheme, but of they are going to be competitive against top teams, they are going to have to learn to be "multiple" and adapt based on the competition.

 

Offensively, everything starts with getting the OL corrected, Josh masked a number of those deficiencies with his off-radar escapability during the regular season. The Bengals made him feel uncomfortable from the start. In addition to correcting the protections, the receivers need to do a better job in "fire" situations.  I notice that when Mahomes is in trouble there is almost always a receiver coming back to him as an outlet. In the Bills offense -- not so much.

 

Getting back to the Cinci game itself... as we know, these games are heavily dictated by emotion. I am not sure that the Bills ever quite recovered emotionally from the Hamlin injury. They got lucky the following week with 2 huge kick returns against the Pats -- and in the Wild Card round struggled to get past the Dolphins with a 3rd string QB. We saw yesterday what the Eagles were able to do against a 3rd string QB. To start the Divisional game the Bengals marched down the field and scored easily -- the Bills responded with a 3-and-out series, and the Bengals marched down the field and scored again to go 14-0. You could just see the body language on almost every player at that time (midway through the 1st quarter) -- they knew it was over.

 

Still as bad as they were playing it was 17-7 with 2 minutes left in the second and the ball.  If ever a time for coaching to step up and do something that was the time.  

[Billz4ever]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Wrong. There were OL, he didn’t have air in front of him. Bengals used a quick passing game and the Bills could have too. There were no unblockable defenders in that game. I didn’t see Bruce Smith or Deacon Jones out there in a Bengals  uniform. No JJ Watt in his prime. Coaching and scheme matter and the Bengals scheme worked to perfection because the Bills gave them exactly the look they wanted time and again. You tip your hat to them , but their chess pieces are not superior or unstoppable. 

When you have trash like Saffold who literally got turn-styled multiple times in that game, you don't need Bruce Smith or Deacon Jones.  Even Dawkins, who is easily our best player on the line, got beaten off the edge repeatedly.  I lost count over how many times Josh was feeling almost immediate pressure as soon as he received the snap.

 

You're talking about hypothetical situations and how you think they would've played out.  I'm dealing with real situations and how they actually played out.  

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Billz4ever said:

When you have trash like Saffold who literally got turn-styled multiple times in that game, you don't need Bruce Smith or Deacon Jones.  Even Dawkins, who is easily our best player on the line, got beaten off the edge repeatedly.  I lost count over how many times Josh was feeling almost immediate pressure as soon as he received the snap.

 

You're talking about hypothetical situations and how you think they would've played out.  I'm dealing with real situations and how they actually played out.  

So the real situation is that you’re nite OL/ team can’t win and needs to be replaced ? Or that you simply got outschemed and out executed by another coaching staff/ team ? If it’s the former that’s interesting because only one team wins their final game the last I checked. You don’t need a perfect team to win the Super Bowl. That’s reality. The real situation with the Bills shows that they won 13 regular season games and lost 3 by a combined 8 points. That’s not a hypothetical. It sounds like you think that if team A beats team B in week 5 they will automatically beat them again in week 12 , or even the next season. See where this is going ? 

[Jrb1979]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

So the real situation is that you’re nite OL/ team can’t win and needs to be replaced ? Or that you simply got outschemed and out executed by another coaching staff/ team ? If it’s the former that’s interesting because only one team wins their final game the last I checked. You don’t need a perfect team to win the Super Bowl. That’s reality. The real situation with the Bills shows that they won 13 regular season games and lost 3 by a combined 8 points. That’s not a hypothetical. It sounds like you think that if team A beats team B in week 5 they will automatically beat them again in week 12 , or even the next season. See where this is going ? 

I have said it again and again. The Bills defense works in the regular season cause of the few elite offenses they play. Their defense is predicated on having offenses needing 10-12 play drives to score and waiting for mistakes to happen.  It works against average offenses but doesn't work against elite offenses. 

[TheBrownBear]

We were the best team in the NFL through 6 and 1/2 weeks of the season - better than the current Bengals and Chiefs teams.  Josh was the unanimous MVP.  Obviously, we suffered some injuries, but something else happened on the way to heaven.  I think we were ramping ourselves up emotionally towards that regular season game in KC, and then we took a deep breath and just let up (focus, energy, attention to detail) during the middle of the season thinking we could turn it back on and get it into gear again before the playoffs.  But during that time Josh suffers the arm injury, we lose a bunch of other players to injury for various lengths, lose Von for the season (I thought it was a killer then and it turned out to be), are thrown off our routine due to acts of God, and lose our starting safety to a cardiac arrest on MNF for chrissakes.  So, for sure, building back that energy, confidence and momentum and getting back to our week 6 level of play was a lot tougher than our guys probably expected, and we clearly weren't ready to match the level of intensity and execution of the Bengals 8 days ago.

 

All that being said, give us a healthy roster and I think we are still right there with the Chiefs and Bengals.  We could use a couple upgrades on the o-line, another reliable pass rusher and one more reliable WR.  If we can somehow fill 2 of those 3 needs, we should be looking good heading into 2023.  As for coaching, if we are stuck with what we have, I definitely need to see growth from Dorsey in the run and short passing game and I'd love to see McDermott force Frazier to get a little more aggressive I guess.

[jahnyc]

Peter King has some Bills related tidbits in his FMIA column today.  Doesn't back down from his assessment that time is slipping away for the Bills because they are not progressing, goes after Beane for his failure to draft quality WRs when there were some available for us in recent drafts, and quotes the thoughts Bills Parcells had about the Bills after the loss to Cinci.  Interesting.