With Oliver Value Goes Beyond the Stat Line

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Malazan said:

The Bills have a lot of players whose 'value' goes beyond the stat line. I'd like a few more players whose value is in the stats. 

 

 

Yes, "the Bills have a lot of players whose 'value' goes beyond the stat line."

 

Thing is they also have a lot of players whose value is in the stats.

 

The Bills went 13-3. That's a stat, and it happened because they hae a lot of good players whose value shows up. They were #1 in DVOA. Why? Because they have a lot of players who ... I could go on and on.

 

Our stat line is terrific. Could certainly have been better, particularly in the Bengals game. Needs to get better, every year. Every team should say the same, but it's certainly true of the Bills this offseason. But the value of this team did show up in a terrific season under very very difficult circumstances, even if it did end poorly.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Thurman#1

[NastyNateSoldiers]

14 hours ago, 947 said:

Oliver has always been dominant in stretches, he has a couple amazing games every year. He also has 5-6 games every year that he's invisible. Every year it seems we hear that he's been playing hurt, 4 years of that is a trend.

 

The silly D-Line rotation prevents him from ever putting up notable sack numbers. I suspect if he moves on & plays 80% of snaps like a normal team would do, he'll be viewed as a better player.

They put so much assets into that insane rotation. Draft pks money everything. I don’t know how Eric Washington has kept his job he hasn’t developed anyone. 

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

In general that’s not how it has worked in the NFL. That a player was drafted highly absolutely has made a ton of difference when it has come to that player’s second contract with the team that drafted him. While it is not without exception, it is rare that a first round pick takes a contract out of line with their draft position. When it does happen it is usually after the player tests the market and finds it lacking.

 

Putting the best roster together means spending wisely. Overpaying for players versus their value to your team obviously works against that. 

 

 

It really doesn't, Barley. Three to four, sometimes even five years in? Draft spot matters zero. Performance is what matters. The player might want draft status to figure in, but for teams it just doesn't.

 

"It's rare that a first round pick takes a contract out of line with their draft position"? No, it's not at all. Yeah, if he performed in line with his draft status, yeah, of course the contract will be similar. But for those that don't, the performance far far outstrips draft status in importance. There are tons of players who receive contracts out of line with draft spot. Tons. You're right that the second contract, if it's a low one, usually comes after testing the market. Many players over-estimate their value, and have to be shown it by the market, but why they take that lower contract is beside the point. They might take it kicking and screaming but finally they take it, whoever gives it to them.

 

A quick example, remember Donte Whitner? Highish first-rounder who performed like a mid-second rounder, which is where he should have been drafted in the first place. His second contract was  3 years and $11M, and not with the Bills. Shaq's second contract, Darby's, Watkins'. Gilmore was worth a huge second, which is why he got one.

 

Going to the Jets, did Darron Lee get a 2nd contract you'd expect for a 1st round pick? Dee Millner, Quinton Coples? Calvin Pryor? Kyle Wilson? Mark Sanchez?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It really doesn't, Barley. Three to four, sometimes even five years in? Draft spot matters zero. Performance is what matters. The player might want draft status to figure in, but for teams it just doesn't.

 

"It's rare that a first round pick takes a contract out of line with their draft position"? No, it's not at all. Yeah, if he performed in line with his draft status, yeah, of course the contract will be similar. But for those that don't, the performance far far outstrips draft status in importance. There are tons of players who receive contracts out of line with draft spot. Tons. You're right that the second contract, if it's a low one, usually comes after testing the market. Many players over-estimate their value, and have to be shown it by the market, but why they take that lower contract is beside the point. They might take it kicking and screaming but finally they take it, whoever gives it to them.

 

A quick example, remember Donte Whitner? Highish first-rounder who performed like a mid-second rounder, which is where he should have been drafted in the first place. His second contract was  3 years and $11M, and not with the Bills. Shaq's second contract, Darby's, Watkins'. Gilmore was worth a huge second, which is why he got one.

 

Going to the Jets, did Darron Lee get a 2nd contract you'd expect for a 1st round pick? Dee Millner, Quinton Coples? Calvin Pryor? Kyle Wilson? Mark Sanchez?

Yeah, well, let someone else pay 10 million a year for Ed and his performance.

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Yeah, well, let someone else pay 10 million a year for Ed and his performance.

 

 

Glad Beane is GM and you're not.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Glad Beane is GM and you're not.

Love some underperforming DTs, do you? Sound like you'd fit in in the front office. 

[balln]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not easily, he's not replaceable.

 

He had a very good year, and he's a very good player.

 

We all hope he gets even better, but OP is right that he's worth a lot beyond the stats.

Very good ? 23 tackles and 4 sacks. “Stats don’t mean anything.” Ok pff has him at 68 (below average starter / backup). “Pff doesn’t mean anything”

 

ok eye test . He’s invisible most every game this season. He had 1 very good game. Detroit. 
 

stop . He’s replaceable and a major disappointment at #9

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It really doesn't, Barley. Three to four, sometimes even five years in? Draft spot matters zero. Performance is what matters. The player might want draft status to figure in, but for teams it just doesn't.

 

"It's rare that a first round pick takes a contract out of line with their draft position"? No, it's not at all. Yeah, if he performed in line with his draft status, yeah, of course the contract will be similar. But for those that don't, the performance far far outstrips draft status in importance. There are tons of players who receive contracts out of line with draft spot. Tons. You're right that the second contract, if it's a low one, usually comes after testing the market. Many players over-estimate their value, and have to be shown it by the market, but why they take that lower contract is beside the point. They might take it kicking and screaming but finally they take it, whoever gives it to them.

 

A quick example, remember Donte Whitner? Highish first-rounder who performed like a mid-second rounder, which is where he should have been drafted in the first place. His second contract was  3 years and $11M, and not with the Bills. Shaq's second contract, Darby's, Watkins'. Gilmore was worth a huge second, which is why he got one.

 

Going to the Jets, did Darron Lee get a 2nd contract you'd expect for a 1st round pick? Dee Millner, Quinton Coples? Calvin Pryor? Kyle Wilson? Mark Sanchez?

I think you’re proving my point.  Did any those players you listed get second contracts with the teams that drafted them?  No. They went to a different team because they weren’t worth their high draft position or the second contract expected by a successful pick at their position. What is what I’ve been saying. 
 

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by BarleyNY

[Beck Water]

20 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Let me start right off that Oliver is not on a level with Williams, Jones, or Donald, but to judge his value solely by the stat line is misleading.

It is pretty common knowledge that Oliver played injured the last half of the season (as did most of the D line) where he saw a disproportional number of double teams than the rest of his linemates. In a Frasier defense, thats kind of the plan. Clog up the middle freeing up the LBs to make a tackle.

Unfortunately, your DE (insert whichever name you like) was routinely beat 1 on 1 by the opposing tackle or tight end, and the pulling lineman blew up your LB, which in most cases was Taron Johnson, resulting in a big run.

Dont forget the 1st half of the season, where you couldn't double team BOTH Miller and Oliver, so there was a lot more pass rush pressure up the middle, and success against the run.

  Removing Oliver from the center of the line when Miller is back means less success defending the middle of the line..it frees up an offensive lineman from the other team.

  The real disaster on the D line is the complete whiff in drafting a bunch of 1st and 2nd round edge rushers that are anything but....

 

So my understanding, and I feel certain someone will correct me if I'm wrong, is that Oliver's role as a 3TDT in this defense is, in fact, to penetrate not just "clog up the middle".  The "soak up the double teams" role belongs to the 1TDT (who is also expected to provide pressure in the middle), DaQuan Jones.

 

Ed Oliver had some great games this season, where McDermott said afterwards "that's his new weekly standard" or words to that effect.

Ed Oliver also had some games where the 3TDT Von Miller was calling out for praise was 30 year old Jordan Phillips.

 

It didn't help that both were playing injured the 2nd half of the season, but overall in this season Ed Oliver's problem is what it's always been - he's not consistent.  He has great games, and games where he disappears.

 

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

"It's rare that a first round pick takes a contract out of line with their draft position"? No, it's not at all. Yeah, if he performed in line with his draft status, yeah, of course the contract will be similar. But for those that don't, the performance far far outstrips draft status in importance. There are tons of players who receive contracts out of line with draft spot. Tons. You're right that the second contract, if it's a low one, usually comes after testing the market. Many players over-estimate their value, and have to be shown it by the market, but why they take that lower contract is beside the point. They might take it kicking and screaming but finally they take it, whoever gives it to them.

 

A quick example, remember Donte Whitner? Highish first-rounder who performed like a mid-second rounder, which is where he should have been drafted in the first place. His second contract was  3 years and $11M, and not with the Bills. Shaq's second contract, Darby's, Watkins'. Gilmore was worth a huge second, which is why he got one.

 

Going to the Jets, did Darron Lee get a 2nd contract you'd expect for a 1st round pick? Dee Millner, Quinton Coples? Calvin Pryor? Kyle Wilson? Mark Sanchez?

 

I think that's the key point.  High round draft picks who don't perform up to expectation and aren't offered the contract they believe they deserve, tend to shop around with other teams, before taking a contract that is typically lower than they believe they deserve, but higher than the drafting team is offering them.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Beck Water

[mabden]

The value is in how many impact plays did he make?

 

The view from my couch was, not as many as the money he would want to keep him.

 

[RG Murdock]

2023 is when we will find out if Oliver is the real deal. The Bills are going to keep him (Unless they package him for a draft pick or WR?). But lets see how he plays when his big pay-day is on the line. Bills have hung with him this long. Frankly, a lot with the Bills will be on the line next year, as I think 2023 is make or break with many of these players or coaches. Might as well ride with the horses that got you to another 13 win season?    

[MJS]

21 hours ago, Malazan said:

The Bills have a lot of players whose 'value' goes beyond the stat line. I'd like a few more players whose value is in the stats. 

This is what I was going to say. We need finishers.

[benderbender]

This board loves theoretical value. Edmunds is a TBD hall of famer based on "plays taken away" alone. Not to mention 1st team all pro in "length." I'd love to see if Oliver gets the same treatment. Something tells me he won't get the same benefit of the doubt. 

[RoscoeParrish]

He has not lived up to the 9th overall pick IMO. 

[Nextmanup]

I'd move on from him when we can and the cap allows for it.

 

He's undersized in this league, and doesn't have enough raw athleticism to make up for it.

 

I would NOT have a player on my team, in that position, who is less than 325 lbs.

 

 

[Shaw66]

21 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

In general that’s not how it has worked in the NFL. That a player was drafted highly absolutely has made a ton of difference when it has come to that player’s second contract with the team that drafted him. While it is not without exception, it is rare that a first round pick takes a contract out of line with their draft position. When it does happen it is usually after the player tests the market and finds it lacking.

 

Putting the best roster together means spending wisely. Overpaying for players versus their value to your team obviously works against that. 

Of course.  But to suggest, as the post to which I reacted did, that underperforming his draft position is reason not to keep a guy is wrong.   As you say, you might not keep the guy if his price is too high for your payroll structure, but that's a completely different question than where the guy was drafted.  It's simply about how much you're willing to pay for a particular talent.  

[In Summary]

If Oliver doesn't get to the QB or pressure, especially with Jones to open him up, then he's just an undersized tackle.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course.  But to suggest, as the post to which I reacted did, that underperforming his draft position is reason not to keep a guy is wrong.   As you say, you might not keep the guy if his price is too high for your payroll structure, but that's a completely different question than where the guy was drafted.  It's simply about how much you're willing to pay for a particular talent.  

I said the exact same thing in the post you responded to. The second contract expectations for a 1st round pick staying with their drafting team are very much impacted by their draft position.

 

Let’s use Oliver as an example. He was drafted 9th overall and the team picked up his 5th year option at $10.75M. In extension negotiations the expectations will be that $10.75M plus a percentage adjustment for the cap increase as a starting point. That puts him at about $11.5M/season to start. we’d be looking at something like a 4 year, $50M contract to stay with the Bills. He’s a solid player, but he’s worth nowhere near that so he’ll hit FA where some team will likely overpay him. He won’t get the above contract, but he will almost certainly get more than the Bills would pay him. Some team will decide that they can utilize him better or take a chance that he wasn’t developed properly or just have a lot of cap space and a huge need. Look at Shaq Lawson. We didn’t even pick up his 5th year option and he got 3 years, $30M from the Phins. He only played one season for them, but he made $13.5M for that season. Since then he’s been playing for vet minimum. 

 

Incidentally payroll structure is moot. The player’s value to the team and his contract demands are what matter. Just because a payroll has capacity at a certain position does not mean the team should waste it on overpaying a player. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I said the exact same thing in the post you responded to. The second contract expectations for a 1st round pick staying with their drafting team are very much impacted by their draft position.

 

Let’s use Oliver as an example. He was drafted 9th overall and the team picked up his 5th year option at $10.75M. In extension negotiations the expectations will be that $10.75M plus a percentage adjustment for the cap increase as a starting point. That puts him at about $11.5M/season to start. we’d be looking at something like a 4 year, $50M contract to stay with the Bills. He’s a solid player, but he’s worth nowhere near that so he’ll hit FA where some team will likely overpay him. He won’t get the above contract, but he will almost certainly get more than the Bills would pay him. Some team will decide that they can utilize him better or take a chance that he wasn’t developed properly or just have a lot of cap space and a huge need. Look at Shaq Lawson. We didn’t even pick up his 5th year option and he got 3 years, $30M from the Phins. He only played one season for them, but he made $13.5M for that season. Since then he’s been playing for vet minimum. 

 

Incidentally payroll structure is moot. The player’s value to the team and his contract demands are what matter. Just because a payroll has capacity at a certain position does not mean the team should waste it on overpaying a player. 

I don't know what you're talking.  There is no GM in the NFL who will say, "well, the guy is worth $8 million a year, but because he was drafted in the top 10 we'll pay him $11 million."   At this point Oliver, like everyone else, is a piece of meat, and his value will be determined by how good each team thinks he is.   No one will value him based on his draft position. 

 

OLIVER may think he's worth more because of his draft position, but no GM is going to pay him for his draft position.  No one.

[BarleyNY]

59 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't know what you're talking.  There is no GM in the NFL who will say, "well, the guy is worth $8 million a year, but because he was drafted in the top 10 we'll pay him $11 million."   At this point Oliver, like everyone else, is a piece of meat, and his value will be determined by how good each team thinks he is.   No one will value him based on his draft position. 

 

OLIVER may think he's worth more because of his draft position, but no GM is going to pay him for his draft position.  No one.

That is not what I’m saying. I think I’ve explained it as well as I can do I’m just going to drop out of this conversation.