Bills D probably has 1 more year of running it back - and be good

[appoo]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Maybe they’d have played tighter with Miller on the field. But I agree that they weren’t going to beat Cincy playing soft coverages regardless of whether he was on the field or not. 

In the Bengals game I saw the Bills play a ton of cover 2. The first TD was against the only non-cover 2 of the drive - a cover 1. The second drive had all c-2 except for one C-1. IIRC that play was a run anyway. 

 

But wasn’t it starting the 3rd drive they started playing more man/man zones?

 

It is worth noting that after the first quarter the Bengals scored 13 the rest of the way (3 quarters), and the lone TD was hugely aided by a bad DPI call.

 

Really, the offense was much more to blame than the defense 

Edited January 27, 2023 by appoo

[Behindenemylines]

20 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Will they ever be championship caliber under Frazier though?

No. Not with Frazier.  
 

his scheme is a poorly implemented flaming pile

[TheBrownBear]

11 minutes ago, appoo said:

But wasn’t it starting the 3rd drive they started playing more man/man zones?

 

It is worth noting that after the first quarter the Bengals scored 13 the rest of the way (3 quarters), and the lone TD was hugely aided by a bad DPI call.

 

Really, the offense was much more to blame than the defense 

I'm not going to argue that our defense is terrible overall.  They're not.  They were quite good to sometimes great during the regular season.  But they were absolutely horrendous against the Bengals in the first half.  They gave up 250 yards.  The offense was horrible as well, no doubt, but the crap defense put them in a 14-0 hole and likely changed the game plan (as well as the mindset of a guy like Josh) and made them one dimensional highlighting our struggles in pass protection.  Yes, the Bengals offense slowed down after that, but it felt an awful lot like they took their foot of the gas once they realized the Bills were no real threat to get back in the game.  As soon as the Bills regained some sort of contact on the scoreboard, the Bengals easily went down the field to restore their 14 point lead.  

[dorquemada]

19 hours ago, appoo said:

Because the Ravens pass rushers played far better than the Bills pass rushers did, and gave a much better platform to their 2 elite backers than the Bills 2 elote backer got.

 

The fonts are easy - beat the man lined up across from you. The ravens did a lot more of that than the Bills did

 

yeah, but it was snowing you can't just expect our DL to be able to perform in that

[BarleyNY]

25 minutes ago, appoo said:

But wasn’t it starting the 3rd drive they started playing more man/man zones?

 

It is worth noting that after the first quarter the Bengals scored 13 the rest of the way (3 quarters), and the lone TD was hugely aided by a bad DPI call.

 

Really, the offense was much more to blame than the defense 

No. The Bills actually started changing up the coverages on the third drive. I think that helped them get that stop. They tried to disguise on their first two drives, but fell into C-2 every time except twice when they went C-1. Burrow easily picked it apart. It was a huge contrast to the Bengals defense which started off using a wide variety of coverages.

 

The Bills varied the coverages more the rest of the game, but still used a lot of C-2. I was very surprised at how basic almost all of it looked. 
 

One last thing. Zone coverage can include pattern matching and NFL teams do this a lot now. It used to be that players would run to a spot. Now many use a pattern matching zone where some of the defenders closely cover receivers in their zone. That looks similar to man coverage except that often they will pass them off to another zone’s defender. Pattern matching zone schemes are a lot more difficult to execute, but are far superior to the more traditional zone. You may have been seeing this - especially on the underneath routes - as it looks a lot like man. 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, appoo said:

They played mostly man for about 3.5 quarters, with corners who were at a disadvantage against man and a Dline that was playing its worst game of the season.  They also started bringing a lot more blitzes 

 

What change would you have suggested of Frazier?

Like the poster showed the stats, bills predominantly played Zone and got carved.

 

Burrow Actually struggled when throwing against man but Frazier sat back in his soft shell.

 

That’s how I saw it as well and the stat confirms it

[appoo]

39 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

No. The Bills actually started changing up the coverages on the third drive. I think that helped them get that stop. They tried to disguise on their first two drives, but fell into C-2 every time except twice when they went C-1. Burrow easily picked it apart. It was a huge contrast to the Bengals defense which started off using a wide variety of coverages.

 

The Bills varied the coverages more the rest of the game, but still used a lot of C-2. I was very surprised at how basic almost all of it looked. 
 

One last thing. Zone coverage can include pattern matching and NFL teams do this a lot now. It used to be that players would run to a spot. Now many use a pattern matching zone where some of the defenders closely cover receivers in their zone. That looks similar to man coverage except that often they will pass them off to another zone’s defender. Pattern matching zone schemes are a lot more difficult to execute, but are far superior to the more traditional zone. You may have been seeing this - especially on the underneath routes - as it looks a lot like man. 

Thanks for the knowledge drop and help man, I really appreciate the opportunity to get better at knowing Ball! 
 

I think you diagnosed my issue. Where I was seeing man, was actually pattern matching zones 

[appoo]

On 1/26/2023 at 1:46 PM, appoo said:

Not necessarily saying this because I want it to be true (I’m 50/50), but because contractually it’s impossible not to do this.

The Bills defense is tied to Von Miller and Tre White. Both players have contracts that are A) uncuttable, and B) untradable.  
 

I believe all the DE and DTs will likely come back either under contract or renewed cheap contracts.

 

Poyer is gone as a FS, and will be replaced by Micah Hyde (Poyer replaced Hyde as the FS this season to not great results)

 

Jordan would have been replaced by Damar Hamlin, and will now likely be replaced by Christian Benford, an inexperienced but athletic and big player at 6-1, 205, with a 4.55 40.

 

They’ll have to work to get Edmunds signed but that’s gonna happen 

 

That’s all the bad news. Here’s the good news 

 

The bills pass rush was excellent with a healthy Von Miller - which has more to do with Von’s cascading effect than Von himself. He forces the attention of the oiffenses protection scheme, and that makes life easier for the other DEs, and especially Ed Oliver, who because he faces much fewer doubles, is more effective, which in turn makes life harder for the tackle he’s next lined up closest to him, and that really helps the other DE.  
 

When you have a ferocious pass rush, and you have to two elite linebackers in coverage, that’s a secondaries best friend. Why do the Niners have the best defense we’ve seen in a few years? Because they have a great pass rush, the best 2 linebackers in the game right now, and a fairly average secondary that gets away with being average.

 

The Bills secondary actually has considerable upside.  Benford is inexperienced, but a clear athletic upgrade to Damar Hamlin and even Poyer. He showed reasonable defensive instincts when he played early, so there’s some hope there that he can be more than an average SS. Finally, Micah Hyde is a top 5 FS, and that’s huge coming back.
 

Year 2 Kair Elam. He finished his rookie playing very well, and I expect him to get a bit better heading into year 2, and he has everything you want in someone you look to extend towards the end of of his rookie year 

 

Year 2 of Tre coming of his ACL.  At worst, my expectation is that White can be a quality boundary corner. He was already showing signs of that towards the end of the season. The ceiling for him is to return to his normal elite Zone/Boundary state who can also play field given some over the top help (he was never the fastest corner, but his short area quickness + instincts made him remarkable in both zone and basically any shorter to intermediate route)

 

Finally, Von Miller is an athletic freak of nature, and I don’t expect him to be slowed down at all. He’s already done this and come back just as strong and furious and he’ll do it again. 
 

So when you hear Beane talk about his Defense, this is why he probably sounds a bit more optimistic than you’d expect. 3 injuries really crushed that defense in a way that no DC would have been to overcome in Micah Hyde, Tre White and Von Miller. And especially losing Von Miller was the final break. 
 

My expectation, if we get Edmunds back, if White is a bit more explosive in his 2nd year coming off tje ACL and Von is resumed his normal explosiveness, is a top 5 D thag actually holds up in the playoffs. That was the entire reason for bringing Von, because of the cascading impacts to the rest of the DLine. Bills had their bad luck season. Time to get the normal to good luck season on D

Bumping  this. 
 

There’s a ton of potential with this defense by running it back and getting a little faster in the secondary, and getting a healthy Von Miller back.

 

Really need to get the DC hire right, as I think they need someone who has experience running a 2 backer system if the Bills fan retain Edmunds - which can be a multiple front D so don’t necessarily have to stick to a 4-3 over a 3-4

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 1/26/2023 at 4:46 PM, appoo said:

Not necessarily saying this because I want it to be true (I’m 50/50), but because contractually it’s impossible not to do this.

The Bills defense is tied to Von Miller and Tre White. Both players have contracts that are A) uncuttable, and B) untradable.  
 

I believe all the DE and DTs will likely come back either under contract or renewed cheap contracts.

 

Poyer is gone as a FS, and will be replaced by Micah Hyde (Poyer replaced Hyde as the FS this season to not great results)

 

Jordan would have been replaced by Damar Hamlin, and will now likely be replaced by Christian Benford, an inexperienced but athletic and big player at 6-1, 205, with a 4.55 40.

 

They’ll have to work to get Edmunds signed but that’s gonna happen 

 

That’s all the bad news. Here’s the good news 

 

The bills pass rush was excellent with a healthy Von Miller - which has more to do with Von’s cascading effect than Von himself. He forces the attention of the oiffenses protection scheme, and that makes life easier for the other DEs, and especially Ed Oliver, who because he faces much fewer doubles, is more effective, which in turn makes life harder for the tackle he’s next lined up closest to him, and that really helps the other DE.  
 

When you have a ferocious pass rush, and you have to two elite linebackers in coverage, that’s a secondaries best friend. Why do the Niners have the best defense we’ve seen in a few years? Because they have a great pass rush, the best 2 linebackers in the game right now, and a fairly average secondary that gets away with being average.

 

The Bills secondary actually has considerable upside.  Benford is inexperienced, but a clear athletic upgrade to Damar Hamlin and even Poyer. He showed reasonable defensive instincts when he played early, so there’s some hope there that he can be more than an average SS. Finally, Micah Hyde is a top 5 FS, and that’s huge coming back.
 

Year 2 Kair Elam. He finished his rookie playing very well, and I expect him to get a bit better heading into year 2, and he has everything you want in someone you look to extend towards the end of of his rookie year 

 

Year 2 of Tre coming of his ACL.  At worst, my expectation is that White can be a quality boundary corner. He was already showing signs of that towards the end of the season. The ceiling for him is to return to his normal elite Zone/Boundary state who can also play field given some over the top help (he was never the fastest corner, but his short area quickness + instincts made him remarkable in both zone and basically any shorter to intermediate route)

 

Finally, Von Miller is an athletic freak of nature, and I don’t expect him to be slowed down at all. He’s already done this and come back just as strong and furious and he’ll do it again. 
 

So when you hear Beane talk about his Defense, this is why he probably sounds a bit more optimistic than you’d expect. 3 injuries really crushed that defense in a way that no DC would have been to overcome in Micah Hyde, Tre White and Von Miller. And especially losing Von Miller was the final break. 
 

My expectation, if we get Edmunds back, if White is a bit more explosive in his 2nd year coming off tje ACL and Von is resumed his normal explosiveness, is a top 5 D thag actually holds up in the playoffs. That was the entire reason for bringing Von, because of the cascading impacts to the rest of the DLine. Bills had their bad luck season. Time to get the normal to good luck season on D

 

Literally everyone was hurt at some point in time last year outside Taron Johnson.  

[T master]

It would be nice but i would like to see the Bills move on from Ed he has not lived up to the hype he had coming out of college & IMHO isn't worth the money he will demand at the position he plays now maybe if he was more consistent & didn't need to depend on others to help him out .

 

He is about the same size as John Randall but playing wise is only half what he was if he was like Randall then he would be living up to his draft status & worth then money to keep him but he's not .

 

So if they can dump the money he will require to keep him & get a couple of draft picks that could be as good or better in this scheme i would be all for it or i have always wanted to see what Oliver would be as a DE coming off the edge once in a while because his first step is so quick & that his size more so matches that of a DE .

 

But to this point they have kept him where he's at so i feel they could do better either in a FA .

[Airseven]

They’re not running it back. Frasier is gone. Poyer is gone. Edmunds is likely gone. Miller will miss at least half the season.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Airseven

[GreggTX]

I agree with everything but Poyer and the time limit. Poyer had an excellent season despite playing with numerous injuries. Also, why will we only have a good defense for 1 more year? With McDermott at the helm, I think our defense will always be respectable.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

I agree with everything but Poyer and the time limit. Poyer had an excellent season despite playing with numerous injuries. Also, why will we only have a good defense for 1 more year? With McDermott at the helm, I think our defense will always be respectable.

 

 Poyer had a great 1st half of the year, but there was a definite drop off in play in the back half.

 

I agree about McDermott, I think we could be even better if he's calling the plays. I think he has a better feel for the game and would make adjustments quicker, jmo. Offensive HCs do it, so why not?

 

 

 

[Pete]

On 2/28/2023 at 11:00 AM, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Literally everyone was hurt at some point in time last year outside Taron Johnson.  

Taron got injured a few times

[noacls]

Until the playoffs. Paper tigers

[Thrivefourfive]

You play 14-0 much differently than you play 0-0. Why are so many comments about the Bengals game seen in a vacuum. The Bengals didn’t need to score 40. I don’t know how anybody looks at this game and thinks there are positives for the Bills. It was a straight up a$$ kicking. 

[T master]

I believe Edmunds & Poyer are both gone Benford i think could do well taking Po's place but i feel they will need to find another MLB either in FA or the draft which there are a couple that look pretty good and may be good players but one never knows .

 

I do think they will be a formidable defense they still have a lot of good players but they will need to bring back Shaq maybe Phillips if he is healthy and can stay that way Daquan is a must to have which he may be under contract still not sure but there is a good bit of talent toward with .

[KOKBILLS]

I'd still be shocked if they did not re-sign Edmunds...I'm ready to be wrong there. But I think McBeane see him as the Josh of their Defense. We'll see soon enough...

 

They need to add some real disrupters on the interior of that D-line...That's do-able...I think we saw it for a second when Jordan Phillips was healthy early on. It's way easier with Von, Groot, and Jones already there. That's where I think they can make the most upgrade impact on D...

 

The secondary needs one good young Safety. If that's Benford, great...But they'll still need to add another piece regardless...Otherwise, I think they're in decent shape at DB. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 hours ago, Pete said:

Taron got injured a few times

 

Yeah, i don't think he was on the injury report for a game though.