Is it the drafting or the player development?

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The fact that Teller and Hodgins went on to have respectable roles is pretty telling. At some point, someone will be on the hot seat. 

I was also thinking about Teller. Obviously we have a different OL coach now, but it’s not like Kromer elevated the play of the OL this year. 
 

It will be interesting to watch Hodgins and see how he further develops. 
 

Good topic by @FrenchConnection

 

Oliver hasn’t developed into the player the draft experts expected and Edmunds took until his fifth season to really take a step forward. The team has had Epenesa lose weight and then gain some back. But I haven’t seen a bit of improvement since day 1 with him. Those three all look like development issues.

 

I’ll add Elam to that list as one to watch. That pick was a move made out of necessity because we were in such a dire situation at CB. He’s only one season in - and he has the talent to play in the NFL - but we have seen little of him. Coming out of college he was a man corner with very little experience in zone coverage He was in need of development. If he can’t get into the field as a starter next season then we likely have a problem with him too. 

 

Rousseau is a bit different to me though. I see a very big similarity with him and Shaq Lawson (not a Beane pick). Coming out both looked to me like their ceiling with the team was 4-5 seasons. That’s because they were both drafted in the first round and neither was a bend-the-edge DE.  Players that can get to the QB on their own are the guys that get PAID. You just can’t give the kind of extension expected by a first round pick to an edge setter or complimentary DE. To me the Rousseau selection looks more like a cost control move for an expensive position of need, not a long term piece. That’s an issue with strategy rather than drafting IMO.

[TheFunPolice]

There's some sort of disconnect between Beane and the coaches. 

 

OR even within the coaching staff.

 

How else do you explain all the praise for Hines, what a great weapon he is, yet he barely ever even sees the field on offense?

 

WTF?

 

If they truly thought he was such a great asset to the offense but had him sitting on the bench drinking Gatorade while the FB was on the field to do nothing then there's a big issue. 

 

Gilliam should NEVER be going out for a pass while Hines or Cook is on the sideline available to play. It's a waste of talent. 

 

Same as Cook sitting on the bench early in the season while Moss ran for 1 yard at a time. 

 

or Elam nailed to the bench while (insert your name here) played CB. 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[colin]

it's the scheme/coaching and drafting.

 

guys on our team who we drafted who are good are just good, allen, milano, tre before his knee, etc.  guys who we brought in are just obviously good too, diggs, miller.  

 

the only guy who left who has been solid is teller, that was a whiff for quentin spain, the uber quitter.

 

frankly, given we have the super qb, i think we should do what w did w diggs and what the rams have done a dozen times (it seels) and trade picks for players we know are good (if we can't just sign them as FA).

 

trading a 3rd or 2nd for a sick pass rusher or sick OT (or even WR if they are out there) would do so much to improve this team.  and while we might have to let a edmunds or poyer or Tre white next year walk, i think we'd be able to handle that.

 

 

[pocoboy]

21 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

So where does this leave us? Beane is drafting guys about where the so-called experts expect them to go or is getting a bit of a steal in terms of expectations. So the problem is either scouting, Beane's inability to see beyond the consensus and trust his own scouts, or player development. I have no idea, but I do know that the Bills had better get this draft right. 

 

One word: McDermott.

 

Honestly, every draft you're gonna have a defensive lineman or two drop down the board. And I think McDermott starts licking his chops when he thinks he can get his hands on a 1st round DL talent in the 2nd round.

 

They really needed a Director of Football Ops to rein in McDermott's spending sprees. Pegula really put a lot of faith in McDermott's guiding voice. And early in the rebuild, solidifying defense while lacking an elite QB made tons of sense. But there needs to be a balancing voice at this point.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Of course, drafting is an inexact science.  Every team has both hits and misses.  You want to have more hits and fewer misses than other teams.  I'm not sure Beane is achieving that if you look past Josh.

How long does Beane get to ride the wave of funding a great QB with the 7th pick in the 2018 draft?  That was 5, soon to be 6 drafts ago.  His draft record since then has been abysmal.  He's done a nice job with trades and FA signings, but drafting is the most important part of building a championship team.

[NeverOutNick]

On 1/26/2023 at 3:01 PM, NeverOutNick said:

I feel like it’s a mix. Beane and his staff have a good eye for a lot of positions. He’s great at finding diamonds at skill positions like Gabe in the 4th late corners and obviously our boy Josh was amazing but when it comes to the offensive and defensive line we are subpar at finding and developing these guys. McDermott and Frazier are also great at developing these corners and safeties and I’ll even give them LBs because Milano is a stud but they need to find a guru with the D and O line because it’s been lackluster for years. Hopefully this is the year we hit on the O line and maybe don’t pass on guys like Pickens for one trick ponies like Cook.

 

I highly doubt Beane makes huge changes at the top but they should definitely consider letting Frazier and maybe even Dorsey go and look at guys like Flores and Wilkes at DC. 
 

Let Flores or Wilkes work with what we have because this off-season needs to be all in on getting Josh everything he needs. Drafting O line and finding a 1B at WR. Plenty of RBs to be had probably at a cheap price in free agency so I’m not worried there and if we do let Dorsey go maybe let Joe Brady take the reigns at OC if we can’t find the next Kyle Shanahan out there looking for an OC gig lol

Looks like I hit on a lot of this from last year although I was semi wrong on cook. He needs a Batman to his robin but he’s very good. Still wish we got Flores as the DC though 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Draft is a crap shoot. Beane is fine most of the time.  He wastes too many picks moving up in the draft.

He has been lucky or good at finding late round guys that make up for his early round misses. 

Not prioritizing OL and WR in deference to defense is his biggest crime. He rectified that last year. Hopefully he addresses WR early this year.

[PBF81]

Rule of thumb #1 in evaluating players in the Draft, do your own homework.  Do not rely on the reviews of anyone else, regardless of how prominent.  

 

Most draft reviews are little more than regurgitations of the first few to come out, which are typically by people like Kiper whose big hurrah and splash has always revolved around the Drafts.  Many simply want to appear bright so they mimic the same points.  They are more people doing it today than ever before, yet the deviations and digression of opinions is nearly non-existent.  

 

How else does anyone explain the fact that hardly anyone differs much in their rankings.  I personally prefer walterfootball, but even then don't always agree.  At least they do their own.  

 

There's quite a bit of meat in all of their analyses that they miss, largely because most do not do their own homework and analysis.

 

Years ago, here, under a different name, forget what even, I posted that Mike Evans would end up being a much better WR than Watkins would be.  The rash I took for that despite laying out all of the evidence as to why, and why Watkins would bust.  

 

Same the year that we drafted Hardy in round 2 and Johnson in round 7, it was clear that Hardy would bust and Johnson would be the better of the two WRs.  Again, the rash taken.

 

There are others too, and the point isn't LAMP, it is that anyone that steps outside the mold provided by the leading draft analyzers, that aren't typically anywhere near 60 or 70% correct, often embarrassingly so, get mocked and laughed at.  

 

So too, not leaving the lines on the road provides some hedge for GMs in case they whiff.  

 

As you pointed out, "everyone had the guy graded at ..., we did to."  That's a whole lot safer for job security than going for a player that everyone has in the mid-2nd, and taking him in the late 1st because you did your own homework and likely won't get him in the 2nd, despite their being two, three, or four players at the position ranked higher.  

 

It takes a lot of time to properly evaluate a player on one's own time.  Hours upon hours for a single player.  Yet how many people pretending to be experts really invest that time.  Properly evaluating 20 players could be a full-time job for a month.  Some do, most do not, most merely regurgitate what they read elsewhere.

 

Teams have the paid people in place to do all of that however.   Many things still get overlooked because no one thought of them.  

 

 

[The Jokeman]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:56 AM, BuffaloRebound said:

Most successful teams have a type of guy they draft.  49ers draft big physical DL and OL. Ravens the same.  And it works more often than not for them.  Groot, Basham, Epenesa, Oliver… not really clear what exactly we’re looking for there.  None of them would be considered overly physical or speed rushers.  Oliver undersized, Epenesa was asked to lose weight, Basham and Groot aren’t speed rushers but also not overly physical.  Same on the O-Line.  Just doesn’t seem like the Bills even know what they’re looking for.  

I think we have a type of DE, as we prefer guys with height (see Trent Murphy, AJE, Rousseau, Darryl Johnson all 6'6" or taller) and it seems we like guys that can slide inside as well. So speed isn't as important as size is from these examples. I suppose we can see this as rarely do we see us get sacks when someone just beats a guy one on one with speed but instead coverage sacks. 

[Sharky7337]

I think player development is an issue. It often takes us two years before some of these rookies effectively contribute and other teams dont have that long of a tamp up it seems.

Edited January 25 by Sharky7337

[Allen2Moulds]

You guys can love or hate McDermott all you want, but for me it's about the draft. Beane has done a good job drafting. The problem is, the teams we're competing with at the top have done even better. If we're grading Beane, he's likely top 10. However, we are missing 1-2 more impact players to get us over the hump. 

I could be wrong but this is my theory. Guys under McDermott generally give it their all during the regular season, but the stakes are elevated during the postseason, and guys around the league kick it into another gear. We hit our top gear during the season, except for maybe Josh. I think that's the reason for it looking like our Dline no shows every year against KC/Cincy.

Besides coaching, the current difference between the Bills and Chiefs, is that the Chiefs have a true game wrecker in Chris Jones. The guy makes a play in critical moments of every big game their in. We don't have that anywhere.