Is it the drafting or the player development?

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

I'm going to preemptively agree that mock drafts are not worth the server space they occupy if you are using them to predict what player goes to what team. They do have a use, in my opinion. That use is to go back to see what the consensus was around a player if that player doesn't end up working out. Since there is a general consensus around there that Brandon Beane is a "poor drafter," I went back to try to see if any of his "bad" picks could be classified as reaches. 

 

1. Cody Ford (38th): This is perhaps his biggest failure in the NFL draft, not only because the player didn't work out but also due to the opportunity costs. I mean, just imagine AJ Brown opposite Diggs. But was it a reach? No. Ford was a consensus first rounder that the Bills got in the second. The entire NFL draft industry missed on this one.
   1. Bleacher Report: 14th pick in the FIRST ROUND: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827208-2019-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-latest-3-round-picks-with-one-month-to-go
   2. Chad Reuter: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/chad-reuter-2019-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-round-1-0ap3000001027100
   3. Daniel Jeremiah: 14 in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2019-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-redskins-land-haskins-0ap3000001027778
   4. SB Nation: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/4/24/18515245/2019-nfl-mock-draft-kyler-murray-dwayne-haskins-ed-oliver-quinnen-williams-nick-bosa
2. Ed Oliver: (9th): Ed was a consensus top-10 pick (Same draft so no links). 
   1. Jeremiah: 4th 
   2. Reuter: 7th
   3. BR: 12th
   4. SB Nation: 3rd
3. Carlos Boogie Basham (61st): At this point, Boogie doesn't look like an NFL player. At the time, I hated the pick because I had no idea who he was. But what was the thinking before the 2021 NFL draft?
   1. Chad Reuter: 35th: https://www.nfl.com/news/seven-round-2021-nfl-mock-draft-round-2-elijah-moore-among-5-wrs-selected
   2. Ryan Wilson @ CBS: 22nd in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-all-7-rounds-four-qbs-go-in-top-7-joined-by-kyle-pitts-jamarr-chase-and-jaylen-waddle/
   3. Walter Football : 53rd: https://walterfootball.com/draft2021_2.php 
4. A.J. Epenesa: (54th): Again, he looks like a fringe NFL player at this point. I also hated this pick, but because I'm not looking at Iowa defensive ends not because I knew anything. 
   1. Bucky Brooks: 20th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2020-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-tua-tagovailoa-falls-to-9-0ap3000001109299
   2. Walter Football: 40th: https://walterfootball.com/draft2020_2.php
   3. Dan Schneier @ CBS: 35th. This mock also has Justin Jefferson to the Pats. Thank god that didn't happen.
   4. Reuter: 46th

 

I could go on, but the only absolute reach that I can find in Beane's drafting record is Terrel Bernard in the 2022 draft. The Bills drafted him at 89, and the highest mock that I can find is Walter Football, who had him at 119. You could call Groot a reach, but if he doesn't go late in the first all the mocks had him within the first few picks of the second round. This is in contrast to Buddy Nix, where every pick felt like a reach.

 

So where does this leave us? Beane is drafting guys about where the so-called experts expect them to go or is getting a bit of a steal in terms of expectations. So the problem is either scouting, Beane's inability to see beyond the consensus and trust his own scouts, or player development. I have no idea, but I do know that the Bills had better get this draft right. 

I agree with the sentiment, but I think you are missing a big possibility.  It can be that late 2nd and 3rd round picks are generally not as good as early 2nd and 3rd round picks.  I think many people really exaggerate the ease with which it is to draft an "impact player".  The draft is hard.  You are drafting young men who have played against a wide variety of competition and trying to "rate" each against players who play different positions, played against different competition levels and, generally different circumstances.  For example, players on dominant teams tend to play against the best competition (like the SEC), however, because the talent on those teams is so good, they may not stand out statistically.

 

Further, some players are older and some are younger.  Some have more room to physically develop and others are "maxed out".  We don't often have access to information about a player's work ethic and football intelligence, both can be significant factors in pro success.

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

55 wins out of 76 games the last 4 seasons (13+ wins per season) says it's both, and it says he's doing both very well compared to the rest of the league. 

 

Next question?  

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There are names who get sold as high picks a year or more ahead of the draft and then draftniks can't come off of them even when it's relatively clear they shouldn't be.

 

Beane took 3 of them in Ford, Basham and Epenesa.   Shaq Lawson had been one of those guys pre-McBeane era.

 

Oliver was considered the real deal by all.  

I don’t think Ford was a name that got super hot a year early

 

Seeing as his guard play at Oklahoma was underwhelming… I had a sixth round pick on him

 

His last season playing right tackle shot him up boards to a top 60 pick … His guard play was mediocre 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I don’t think Ford was a name that got super hot a year early

 

Seeing as his guard play at Oklahoma was underwhelming… I had a sixth round pick on him

 

His last season playing right tackle shot him up boards to a top 60 pick … His guard play was mediocre 

 

 

Yeah his stock started moving drastically with draft mockers relatively early in that season before the draft..........which I didn't understand but I would never select a RT or G only type in round 1 as a matter of principle.

 

He and Basham(and Shaq in 2016 and Chris Kelsay long before) were all players I feared the Bills might draft in round 1.

 

Round 2 has been a sink-hole for value in Bills history..........a high % of the good second round picks in Bills history came in drafts where they didn't have a 1st round pick.    Guys like Thurman Thomas a Sam Cowart.    Which has largely supported my opinion that Bills GM's have devoted so much emotion into first selection in the many months leading up to the draft that they often play round 2 like it's house money on the table.      

 

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah his stock started moving drastically with draft mockers relatively early in that season before the draft..........which I didn't understand but I would never select a RT or G only type in round 1 as a matter of principle.

 

He and Basham(and Shaq in 2016 and Chris Kelsay long before) were all players I feared the Bills might draft in round 1.

 

Round 2 has been a sink-hole for value in Bills history..........a high % of the good second round picks in Bills history came in drafts where they didn't have a 1st round pick.    Guys like Thurman Thomas a Sam Cowart.    Which has largely supported my opinion that Bills GM's have devoted so much emotion into first selection in the many months leading up to the draft that they often play round 2 like it's house money on the table.      

 

Absolutely agree

[Milanos Milano]

6 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I guess we'll see that if they go somewhere else and thrive. We already know that Ford was a miss by the entire draft industry.

Teller? Hodgins? 

[Southern_Bills]

I honestly can't say which. It's hard to ever say which one it is definitively. Teller obviously points you in a certain direction. 

 

The real question is does it matter? The people drafting are the same and the people coaching are the same.

 

So does that mean the Pegulas and the Bills are "OK" being considered a top team but not performing like one when it counts?

 

That's what I hear.

[Freddie's Dead]

Yes.

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I'm going to preemptively agree that mock drafts are not worth the server space they occupy if you are using them to predict what player goes to what team. They do have a use, in my opinion. That use is to go back to see what the consensus was around a player if that player doesn't end up working out. Since there is a general consensus around there that Brandon Beane is a "poor drafter," I went back to try to see if any of his "bad" picks could be classified as reaches. 

 

1. Cody Ford (38th): This is perhaps his biggest failure in the NFL draft, not only because the player didn't work out but also due to the opportunity costs. I mean, just imagine AJ Brown opposite Diggs. But was it a reach? No. Ford was a consensus first rounder that the Bills got in the second. The entire NFL draft industry missed on this one.
   1. Bleacher Report: 14th pick in the FIRST ROUND: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827208-2019-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-latest-3-round-picks-with-one-month-to-go
   2. Chad Reuter: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/chad-reuter-2019-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-round-1-0ap3000001027100
   3. Daniel Jeremiah: 14 in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2019-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-redskins-land-haskins-0ap3000001027778
   4. SB Nation: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/4/24/18515245/2019-nfl-mock-draft-kyler-murray-dwayne-haskins-ed-oliver-quinnen-williams-nick-bosa
2. Ed Oliver: (9th): Ed was a consensus top-10 pick (Same draft so no links). 
   1. Jeremiah: 4th 
   2. Reuter: 7th
   3. BR: 12th
   4. SB Nation: 3rd
3. Carlos Boogie Basham (61st): At this point, Boogie doesn't look like an NFL player. At the time, I hated the pick because I had no idea who he was. But what was the thinking before the 2021 NFL draft?
   1. Chad Reuter: 35th: https://www.nfl.com/news/seven-round-2021-nfl-mock-draft-round-2-elijah-moore-among-5-wrs-selected
   2. Ryan Wilson @ CBS: 22nd in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-all-7-rounds-four-qbs-go-in-top-7-joined-by-kyle-pitts-jamarr-chase-and-jaylen-waddle/
   3. Walter Football : 53rd: https://walterfootball.com/draft2021_2.php 
4. A.J. Epenesa: (54th): Again, he looks like a fringe NFL player at this point. I also hated this pick, but because I'm not looking at Iowa defensive ends not because I knew anything. 
   1. Bucky Brooks: 20th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2020-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-tua-tagovailoa-falls-to-9-0ap3000001109299
   2. Walter Football: 40th: https://walterfootball.com/draft2020_2.php
   3. Dan Schneier @ CBS: 35th. This mock also has Justin Jefferson to the Pats. Thank god that didn't happen.
   4. Reuter: 46th

 

I could go on, but the only absolute reach that I can find in Beane's drafting record is Terrel Bernard in the 2022 draft. The Bills drafted him at 89, and the highest mock that I can find is Walter Football, who had him at 119. You could call Groot a reach, but if he doesn't go late in the first all the mocks had him within the first few picks of the second round. This is in contrast to Buddy Nix, where every pick felt like a reach.

 

So where does this leave us? Beane is drafting guys about where the so-called experts expect them to go or is getting a bit of a steal in terms of expectations. So the problem is either scouting, Beane's inability to see beyond the consensus and trust his own scouts, or player development. I have no idea, but I do know that the Bills had better get this draft right. 

As far as both trenches go, the Bills scouts might be some of the worst in the league. 

[Billl]

6 hours ago, stlbills13 said:

I don't usually like being the team that gets a player 20+ spots later in the draft than the experts are projecting. There is usually a reason why all those teams continued to pass over that guy. Draft experts could be overrating him, there could be smoke around him that teams were feeding to the experts, etc. Honestly I'd rather reach for guys and be aggressive and/or trade up instead of coming out of a draft thinking we got a value based on projections

On a similar note, it seems like fans hate the idea of trading up in the draft, but I feel a lot better watching my GM make a move to go get the guy they covet in the first round.  It beats the hell out of watching another team trade up in front of your team and snag the player they think you were targeting.  If you have to choose on missing out on the first round player you really wanted (because he didn’t quite fall to you) or the third round player you wanted (because you used the third round pick to move up in the first round), you’d be crazy not to take the latter every time.  Besides, if a team really believes in a guy in the third round, they can always find a way to trade for that pick.  

 

Trading back in the first round is basically hoping that you’ll be smart enough to draft a guy that all the other GMs overlooked.  Go get the guy you really want early and then let the draft come to you in the later rounds.

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

I feel like it’s a mix. Beane and his staff have a good eye for a lot of positions. He’s great at finding diamonds at skill positions like Gabe in the 4th late corners and obviously our boy Josh was amazing but when it comes to the offensive and defensive line we are subpar at finding and developing these guys. McDermott and Frazier are also great at developing these corners and safeties and I’ll even give them LBs because Milano is a stud but they need to find a guru with the D and O line because it’s been lackluster for years. Hopefully this is the year we hit on the O line and maybe don’t pass on guys like Pickens for one trick ponies like Cook.

 

I highly doubt Beane makes huge changes at the top but they should definitely consider letting Frazier and maybe even Dorsey go and look at guys like Flores and Wilkes at DC. 
 

Let Flores or Wilkes work with what we have because this off-season needs to be all in on getting Josh everything he needs. Drafting O line and finding a 1B at WR. Plenty of RBs to be had probably at a cheap price in free agency so I’m not worried there and if we do let Dorsey go maybe let Joe Brady take the reigns at OC if we can’t find the next Kyle Shanahan out there looking for an OC gig lol

You're right. He's done well in the skill positions but failed in the trenches. Are his scouts for OL/DL just idiots?

[Augie]

My answer to the title question? I’d say it’s a combination of all of that that led to 14 wins. But maybe that’s just me. 

 

 

.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Augie

[Milanos Milano]

14 minutes ago, Augie said:

My answer to the title question? I’d say it’s a combination of all of that that led to 14 wins. But maybe that’s just me. 

 

 

.

The fact that Teller and Hodgins went on to have respectable roles is pretty telling. At some point, someone will be on the hot seat. 

[Success]

How about "the last playoff loss before their historic dynastic run?"

 

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The fact that Teller and Hodgins went on to have respectable roles is pretty telling. At some point, someone will be on the hot seat. 

How many decisions do you make in a day? Have you been perfect?

 

You had to go back years for Teller, and Hodgins we never wanted to lose. It was a call up/waiver thing when we had emergency needs at other positions. 

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

How many decisions do you make in a day? Have you been perfect?

 

You had to go back years for Teller, and Hodgins we never wanted to lose. It was a call up/waiver thing when we had emergency needs at other positions. 

I just want to win a super bowl. It appears like we’ve taken a step back and it’s concerning. 

[BananaB]

17 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

55 wins out of 76 games the last 4 seasons (13+ wins per season) says it's both, and it says he's doing both very well compared to the rest of the league. 

 

Next question?  

If you can’t beat the top dogs come playoff time you’re looking to make changes. 

[hondo in seattle]

20 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I'm going to preemptively agree that mock drafts are not worth the server space they occupy if you are using them to predict what player goes to what team. They do have a use, in my opinion. That use is to go back to see what the consensus was around a player if that player doesn't end up working out. Since there is a general consensus around there that Brandon Beane is a "poor drafter," I went back to try to see if any of his "bad" picks could be classified as reaches. 

 

1. Cody Ford (38th): This is perhaps his biggest failure in the NFL draft, not only because the player didn't work out but also due to the opportunity costs. I mean, just imagine AJ Brown opposite Diggs. But was it a reach? No. Ford was a consensus first rounder that the Bills got in the second. The entire NFL draft industry missed on this one.
   1. Bleacher Report: 14th pick in the FIRST ROUND: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827208-2019-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-latest-3-round-picks-with-one-month-to-go
   2. Chad Reuter: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/chad-reuter-2019-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-round-1-0ap3000001027100
   3. Daniel Jeremiah: 14 in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2019-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-redskins-land-haskins-0ap3000001027778
   4. SB Nation: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/4/24/18515245/2019-nfl-mock-draft-kyler-murray-dwayne-haskins-ed-oliver-quinnen-williams-nick-bosa
2. Ed Oliver: (9th): Ed was a consensus top-10 pick (Same draft so no links). 
   1. Jeremiah: 4th 
   2. Reuter: 7th
   3. BR: 12th
   4. SB Nation: 3rd
3. Carlos Boogie Basham (61st): At this point, Boogie doesn't look like an NFL player. At the time, I hated the pick because I had no idea who he was. But what was the thinking before the 2021 NFL draft?
   1. Chad Reuter: 35th: https://www.nfl.com/news/seven-round-2021-nfl-mock-draft-round-2-elijah-moore-among-5-wrs-selected
   2. Ryan Wilson @ CBS: 22nd in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-all-7-rounds-four-qbs-go-in-top-7-joined-by-kyle-pitts-jamarr-chase-and-jaylen-waddle/
   3. Walter Football : 53rd: https://walterfootball.com/draft2021_2.php 
4. A.J. Epenesa: (54th): Again, he looks like a fringe NFL player at this point. I also hated this pick, but because I'm not looking at Iowa defensive ends not because I knew anything. 
   1. Bucky Brooks: 20th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2020-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-tua-tagovailoa-falls-to-9-0ap3000001109299
   2. Walter Football: 40th: https://walterfootball.com/draft2020_2.php
   3. Dan Schneier @ CBS: 35th. This mock also has Justin Jefferson to the Pats. Thank god that didn't happen.
   4. Reuter: 46th

 

I could go on, but the only absolute reach that I can find in Beane's drafting record is Terrel Bernard in the 2022 draft. The Bills drafted him at 89, and the highest mock that I can find is Walter Football, who had him at 119. You could call Groot a reach, but if he doesn't go late in the first all the mocks had him within the first few picks of the second round. This is in contrast to Buddy Nix, where every pick felt like a reach.

 

So where does this leave us? Beane is drafting guys about where the so-called experts expect them to go or is getting a bit of a steal in terms of expectations. So the problem is either scouting, Beane's inability to see beyond the consensus and trust his own scouts, or player development. I have no idea, but I do know that the Bills had better get this draft right. 

 

I agree that these have all been disappointing picks.   But I think the analysis is somewhat flawed.  The "NFL draft industry" may have been wrong about some of these picks but who cares?  Most draft gurus are one-man shops.  An NFL team like the Bills employs a team of scouts, interviews college coaches, hires investigators, and overall put far more man-hours and money into draft research than Mel Kiper or anyone else.  So the Bills ought to be get picks right when the media gurus get them wrong.

 

In all these cases, other teams passed on guys we picked.  Maybe they were smarter than us, did more due diligence, used better criteria when evaluating players.  

 

Of course, drafting is an inexact science.  Every team has both hits and misses.  You want to have more hits and fewer misses than other teams.  I'm not sure Beane is achieving that if you look past Josh.    

[uticaclub]

17 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

55 wins out of 76 games the last 4 seasons (13+ wins per season) says it's both, and it says he's doing both very well compared to the rest of the league. 

 

Next question?  

Josh Allen and Josh Allen alone is why we win. The swings and misses is why we have 0 afc championships

[BuffaloRebound]

Most successful teams have a type of guy they draft.  49ers draft big physical DL and OL. Ravens the same.  And it works more often than not for them.  Groot, Basham, Epenesa, Oliver… not really clear what exactly we’re looking for there.  None of them would be considered overly physical or speed rushers.  Oliver undersized, Epenesa was asked to lose weight, Basham and Groot aren’t speed rushers but also not overly physical.  Same on the O-Line.  Just doesn’t seem like the Bills even know what they’re looking for.