Is it the drafting or the player development?

[Low Positive]

I'm going to preemptively agree that mock drafts are not worth the server space they occupy if you are using them to predict what player goes to what team. They do have a use, in my opinion. That use is to go back to see what the consensus was around a player if that player doesn't end up working out. Since there is a general consensus around there that Brandon Beane is a "poor drafter," I went back to try to see if any of his "bad" picks could be classified as reaches. 

 

1. Cody Ford (38th): This is perhaps his biggest failure in the NFL draft, not only because the player didn't work out but also due to the opportunity costs. I mean, just imagine AJ Brown opposite Diggs. But was it a reach? No. Ford was a consensus first rounder that the Bills got in the second. The entire NFL draft industry missed on this one.
   1. Bleacher Report: 14th pick in the FIRST ROUND: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827208-2019-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-latest-3-round-picks-with-one-month-to-go
   2. Chad Reuter: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/chad-reuter-2019-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-round-1-0ap3000001027100
   3. Daniel Jeremiah: 14 in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2019-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-redskins-land-haskins-0ap3000001027778
   4. SB Nation: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/4/24/18515245/2019-nfl-mock-draft-kyler-murray-dwayne-haskins-ed-oliver-quinnen-williams-nick-bosa
2. Ed Oliver: (9th): Ed was a consensus top-10 pick (Same draft so no links). 
   1. Jeremiah: 4th 
   2. Reuter: 7th
   3. BR: 12th
   4. SB Nation: 3rd
3. Carlos Boogie Basham (61st): At this point, Boogie doesn't look like an NFL player. At the time, I hated the pick because I had no idea who he was. But what was the thinking before the 2021 NFL draft?
   1. Chad Reuter: 35th: https://www.nfl.com/news/seven-round-2021-nfl-mock-draft-round-2-elijah-moore-among-5-wrs-selected
   2. Ryan Wilson @ CBS: 22nd in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-all-7-rounds-four-qbs-go-in-top-7-joined-by-kyle-pitts-jamarr-chase-and-jaylen-waddle/
   3. Walter Football : 53rd: https://walterfootball.com/draft2021_2.php 
4. A.J. Epenesa: (54th): Again, he looks like a fringe NFL player at this point. I also hated this pick, but because I'm not looking at Iowa defensive ends not because I knew anything. 
   1. Bucky Brooks: 20th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2020-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-tua-tagovailoa-falls-to-9-0ap3000001109299
   2. Walter Football: 40th: https://walterfootball.com/draft2020_2.php
   3. Dan Schneier @ CBS: 35th. This mock also has Justin Jefferson to the Pats. Thank god that didn't happen.
   4. Reuter: 46th

 

I could go on, but the only absolute reach that I can find in Beane's drafting record is Terrel Bernard in the 2022 draft. The Bills drafted him at 89, and the highest mock that I can find is Walter Football, who had him at 119. You could call Groot a reach, but if he doesn't go late in the first all the mocks had him within the first few picks of the second round. This is in contrast to Buddy Nix, where every pick felt like a reach.

 

So where does this leave us? Beane is drafting guys about where the so-called experts expect them to go or is getting a bit of a steal in terms of expectations. So the problem is either scouting, Beane's inability to see beyond the consensus and trust his own scouts, or player development. I have no idea, but I do know that the Bills had better get this draft right. 

[Aussie Joe]

Good post...and a couple of points Ive considered before...

 

The lead up to the 2019 draft is the one that I spend the most time taking in content from the "experts"

 

Cody Ford was a highly rated prospect .. I remember that of the 6 people on nfl.com making mock drafts, the lowest had him going mid 20s

 

Daniel Jeremiah has a better than average reputation (not sure why) , but in his final mock from 2019... had Oliver at 4 and Ford at 14.. double woof...

 

There is no accountability, no looking back from any of these guys ... waste of time in my mind and I rarely look at any of these any more...maybe a week or two out when these guys have heard all the rumours...

 

Having said that though... it still doesnt excuse that Ford a miss from Beane and his staff...

 

I have also raised deficiencies in the coaching as a possible explanation for so many drafting failures (particularly on the D line) but didnt get much of a response...  there seems to me an expectation that Day 1-2 picks shouldnt require much seasoning and should be starting and playing well from the get go...

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Bob Jones]

Thanks a lot for doing the work on this. I surmise another word for player development is coaching. 😉

[BADOLBILZ]

55 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

I'm going to preemptively agree that mock drafts are not worth the server space they occupy if you are using them to predict what player goes to what team. They do have a use, in my opinion. That use is to go back to see what the consensus was around a player if that player doesn't end up working out. Since there is a general consensus around there that Brandon Beane is a "poor drafter," I went back to try to see if any of his "bad" picks could be classified as reaches. 

 

1. Cody Ford (38th): This is perhaps his biggest failure in the NFL draft, not only because the player didn't work out but also due to the opportunity costs. I mean, just imagine AJ Brown opposite Diggs. But was it a reach? No. Ford was a consensus first rounder that the Bills got in the second. The entire NFL draft industry missed on this one.
   1. Bleacher Report: 14th pick in the FIRST ROUND: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827208-2019-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-latest-3-round-picks-with-one-month-to-go
   2. Chad Reuter: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/chad-reuter-2019-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-round-1-0ap3000001027100
   3. Daniel Jeremiah: 14 in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2019-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-redskins-land-haskins-0ap3000001027778
   4. SB Nation: 28th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/4/24/18515245/2019-nfl-mock-draft-kyler-murray-dwayne-haskins-ed-oliver-quinnen-williams-nick-bosa
2. Ed Oliver: (9th): Ed was a consensus top-10 pick (Same draft so no links). 
   1. Jeremiah: 4th 
   2. Reuter: 7th
   3. BR: 12th
   4. SB Nation: 3rd
3. Carlos Boogie Basham (61st): At this point, Boogie doesn't look like an NFL player. At the time, I hated the pick because I had no idea who he was. But what was the thinking before the 2021 NFL draft?
   1. Chad Reuter: 35th: https://www.nfl.com/news/seven-round-2021-nfl-mock-draft-round-2-elijah-moore-among-5-wrs-selected
   2. Ryan Wilson @ CBS: 22nd in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-all-7-rounds-four-qbs-go-in-top-7-joined-by-kyle-pitts-jamarr-chase-and-jaylen-waddle/
   3. Walter Football : 53rd: https://walterfootball.com/draft2021_2.php 
4. A.J. Epenesa: (54th): Again, he looks like a fringe NFL player at this point. I also hated this pick, but because I'm not looking at Iowa defensive ends not because I knew anything. 
   1. Bucky Brooks: 20th in the FIRST ROUND: https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2020-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-tua-tagovailoa-falls-to-9-0ap3000001109299
   2. Walter Football: 40th: https://walterfootball.com/draft2020_2.php
   3. Dan Schneier @ CBS: 35th. This mock also has Justin Jefferson to the Pats. Thank god that didn't happen.
   4. Reuter: 46th

 

I could go on, but the only absolute reach that I can find in Beane's drafting record is Terrel Bernard in the 2022 draft. The Bills drafted him at 89, and the highest mock that I can find is Walter Football, who had him at 119. You could call Groot a reach, but if he doesn't go late in the first all the mocks had him within the first few picks of the second round. This is in contrast to Buddy Nix, where every pick felt like a reach.

 

So where does this leave us? Beane is drafting guys about where the so-called experts expect them to go or is getting a bit of a steal in terms of expectations. So the problem is either scouting, Beane's inability to see beyond the consensus and trust his own scouts, or player development. I have no idea, but I do know that the Bills had better get this draft right. 

 

 

There are names who get sold as high picks a year or more ahead of the draft and then draftniks can't come off of them even when it's relatively clear they shouldn't be.

 

Beane took 3 of them in Ford, Basham and Epenesa.   Shaq Lawson had been one of those guys pre-McBeane era.

 

Oliver was considered the real deal by all.  

[BuffaloRebound]

Has to be something going on with player development, scheme. Can’t be this many whiffs on the D Line without something going on with how they’re being coached/ developed.  

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Has to be something going on with player development, scheme. Can’t be this many whiffs on the D Line without something going on with how they’re being coached/ developed.  

I guess we'll see that if they go somewhere else and thrive. We already know that Ford was a miss by the entire draft industry.

[Matt_In_NH]

Let's list the organizations that dont miss on high draft picks.  The complete list is below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's all of them

Edited January 26, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[BuffaloRebound]

Just now, FrenchConnection said:

I guess we'll see that if they go somewhere else and thrive. We already know that Ford was a miss by the entire draft industry.

I’d argue that’s not best way to measure since most guy’s productive NFL careers are 4-5 years max and it’s really hard to overcome a bad 3-4 year start.  

[Success]

I also look at guys that moved on to other teams - Moss played well in Indy the last part of the season.  Teller, Hodgins, even Breida & Feliciano.

 

It seems like guys we had play better on other teams. We're not maximizing talent.

 

[NewEra]

Both

[stlbills13]

I don't usually like being the team that gets a player 20+ spots later in the draft than the experts are projecting. There is usually a reason why all those teams continued to pass over that guy. Draft experts could be overrating him, there could be smoke around him that teams were feeding to the experts, etc. Honestly I'd rather reach for guys and be aggressive and/or trade up instead of coming out of a draft thinking we got a value based on projections

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, Success said:

I also look at guys that moved on to other teams - Moss played well in Indy the last part of the season.  Teller, Hodgins, even Breida & Feliciano.

 

It seems like guys we had play better on other teams. We're not maximizing talent.

 

I would argue that out of that list, the only evaluation miss is Teller. Hodgins and Moss just went to teams that gave them touches. Moss' yards per carry still wasn't good, but his carries went through the roof once they shut down Taylor for the season. Hodgins was the #1 WR in NY and got a lot of targets.

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

I don't usually like being the team that gets a player 20+ spots later in the draft than the experts are projecting. There is usually a reason why all those teams continued to pass over that guy. Draft experts could be overrating him, there could be smoke around him that teams were feeding to the experts, etc. Honestly I'd rather reach for guys and be aggressive and/or trade up instead of coming out of a draft thinking we got a value based on projections

Agreed. We often fall into a trap of comparing the players in a given draft to each other and saying things like "we got the third best OT in this draft in the third round. That's a steal." But that doesn't matter, because as soon as he's drafted the only comparison that matters is how he stacks up against the other 62 starting OTs in the NFL. 

[NeverOutNick]

I feel like it’s a mix. Beane and his staff have a good eye for a lot of positions. He’s great at finding diamonds at skill positions like Gabe in the 4th late corners and obviously our boy Josh was amazing but when it comes to the offensive and defensive line we are subpar at finding and developing these guys. McDermott and Frazier are also great at developing these corners and safeties and I’ll even give them LBs because Milano is a stud but they need to find a guru with the D and O line because it’s been lackluster for years. Hopefully this is the year we hit on the O line and maybe don’t pass on guys like Pickens for one trick ponies like Cook.

 

I highly doubt Beane makes huge changes at the top but they should definitely consider letting Frazier and maybe even Dorsey go and look at guys like Flores and Wilkes at DC. 
 

Let Flores or Wilkes work with what we have because this off-season needs to be all in on getting Josh everything he needs. Drafting O line and finding a 1B at WR. Plenty of RBs to be had probably at a cheap price in free agency so I’m not worried there and if we do let Dorsey go maybe let Joe Brady take the reigns at OC if we can’t find the next Kyle Shanahan out there looking for an OC gig lol

[BearNorth]

7 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Hodgins and Moss just went to teams that gave them touches. Hodgins was the #1 WR in NY and got a lot of targets.

We kept Kumerow for ST's then he got hurt, but we had Hodgins on the PS and didn't call him up. 

 

This love of McDermott for special teams is a bit of the tail wagging the dog.

 

Our #2 & #3 WR's were in the bottom half of the league.  Hodgins was in the top 25 with the Giants.  Josh would have loved having that BIG target.

[Aussie Joe]

19 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

I don't usually like being the team that gets a player 20+ spots later in the draft than the experts are projecting. There is usually a reason why all those teams continued to pass over that guy. Draft experts could be overrating him, there could be smoke around him that teams were feeding to the experts, etc. Honestly I'd rather reach for guys and be aggressive and/or trade up instead of coming out of a draft thinking we got a value based on projections

 

DK Metcalf went lower than expected…

Edit . Just making the point that there are probably no absolute rules when it comes to the Draft 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[BananaB]

IT’s development…. Lack of trust in young players and to loyal to vets. Both keep guys with potential off the field and it’s harder to learn in practice than it does in a game. You can also look at all our rotational guys that hardly look like the make some kind of impact until late in their contracts. Maybe the talents there,  but they ain’t getting enough reps at a high enough frequency to improve as fast as we need them too

Edited January 26, 2023 by BananaB

[transient]

Good topic and one that I've wondered about myself. At least it seems like gone are the days of outsmarting the league by reaching for guys like Maybin, McCargo, lil' Hitner, Troup, Manuel, etc. and then praying for the staff's ability to make chicken salad out of Mike Jasper to make up for the giant swing and misses.

[Royale with Cheese]

I think it's philosophy and scheme.  If you're predictable, you're opponent has a significant advantage. 

[Low Positive]

7 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

DK Metcalf went lower than expected…

Edit . Just making the point that there are probably no absolute rules when it comes to the Draft 

 

Everyone talks about Brady, but Travis Kelce was a third round pick. He was the fifth TE picked. Gavin Escobar and Vance McDonald were picked before him. KC fell a** backward into the greatest TE of all time. It's all a crapshoot.