Fire Frazier? McDermott? Nah. Bills fans have to switch their mentality re: defense

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 1/26/2023 at 9:10 AM, dave mcbride said:

The Bengals could have scored 41 in that game if they needed to. 

 

This is what the OP is missing. They "only" scored 27 points and "only" 13 points after the initial 14 but it was pretty clear that the D had no answers. If the Bengals needed a got to have it TD they would have gotten one. That is how it felt. 

[CincyBillsFan]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am sorry I disagree. Even if the defense had showed up in Houston or last Sunday the offense was not good enough and the defense would have needed to be all world vs Mahomes in the AFCCG in 2020 to prop up that offensive display when Chris Jones was a one man wrecking crew against our oline. 2021 is the exception in that the O showed up in a major way and the D didn't hold up its part of the bargain.

 

And I have said multiple times I agree with you on resource allocation but that doesn't get the offense totally off the hook. They were pitiful last weekend. The whole team was. Everything from that deserves a share of the blame and needs looking at. 

 

 

A better performance by the defense provides the offense with a few more possessions. That would have led directly to more points on the board.  And again the defense played poorly at key points of the game making it harder to generate momentum and take advantage of playing at home.  Specifically:

 

*  The D allowed the Bengals to take a big early lead.

 

*  Both times the Bills offense got them to within one score the defense promptly let Cincy go on two long, time consuming scoring drives. These were 2 key pivot points in the game that the defense allowed to slip away. By the time the O got the ball back half a quarter had been used up and the Bengals were back out in front by 2 scores.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

A better performance by the defense provides the offense with a few more possessions. That would have led directly to more points on the board.  And again the defense played poorly at key points of the game making it harder to generate momentum and take advantage of playing at home.  Specifically:

 

*  The D allowed the Bengals to take a big early lead.

 

*  Both times the Bills offense got them to within one score the defense promptly let Cincy go on two long, time consuming scoring drives. These were 2 key pivot points in the game that the defense allowed to slip away. By the time the O got the ball back half a quarter had been used up and the Bengals were back out in front by 2 scores.

 

 

 

And neither time was the game out of control.... if the offense could have moved the ball. It couldn't.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

And neither time was the game out of control.... if the offense could have moved the ball. It couldn't.

 

The weather, a terrible O line and a distinct lack of play makers beyond Allen & Diggs all contributed to the offenses problems against the Bengal's.  The mystery is how was Buffalo able to generate as much offense as they did throughout the season?  Their issues on offense are real and substantial due largely to the Bills focus on the defense.  So when we get to the playoffs I hold the defense to a much higher standard then I do the offense.  In KC they would hold the offense to the higher standard because that's where they put the lions hare of the resources.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The weather, a terrible O line and a distinct lack of play makers beyond Allen & Diggs all contributed to the offenses problems against the Bengal's.  The mystery is how was Buffalo able to generate as much offense as they did throughout the season?  Their issues on offense are real and substantial due largely to the Bills focus on the defense.  So when we get to the playoffs I hold the defense to a much higher standard then I do the offense.  In KC they would hold the offense to the higher standard because that's where they put the lions hare of the resources.

 

 

I agree with all of that. I have kept agreeing with you on resource allocation. But you can't just let the offense off the hook when it underperforms by its own standards by saying - yea they get less resource.

[Billever76]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Are you? See I really am not. Bills had it down 17-7 with time left before half. Had to punt it away. They had it at 17-7 again to open the 2nd half. Only managed 3. Got it back at 24-10 still time in the third... went 3 and out. The might have kicked 3 rather than going on 4th down the next drive, and mustered 13... but that wad their lot. 

 

That is my point it was pitiful on both sides of the ball on Sunday. Neither was good enough to prop up the other. Just a disaster of a performance all around.

Until those high draft picks start going to the oline this is what you can expect out of the offense in the playoffs

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billever76 said:

Until those high draft picks start going to the oline this is what you can expect out of the offense in the playoffs

 

They need more picks, agreed. But that isn't a defense for 10 points in a playoff game. They had enough ability out there to be better than that. Coaching has to be better, playcalling has to be better and execution (from Josh down) has to be better.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They need more picks, agreed. But that isn't a defense for 10 points in a playoff game. They had enough ability out there to be better than that. Coaching has to be better, playcalling has to be better and execution (from Josh down) has to be better.

I agree, BUT there is only so much you can do with THAT offensive line. 

[Thriftygamer83]

Thinking the best take on this is just to ignore whatever dramatics Buffalo goes through.  Quite honestly the level of talent in Coaching talent has a final year to reach the Lombardi.  Beyond, that it’s a Super Bowl or bust team.  If it’s playoffs only that’s fine it really is.  Not quite drought-era level of dynamics but always leaving fans wanting more.  Like Marty or Dan Reeves.  They’ll just keep knocking instead of hammering through the door and blowing out teams with a conservative play style.  It’s nothing to get excited about nowadays it’s just the weaknesses in Coaching.  

What’s worse is firing a secondary coach in a unit plagued by injuries which found ways to compete.  Oliver, Edmunds, and Settle will never be Kyle Williams or Matt Milano including Jerry Hughes in that.  Process guys just don’t have the talents and have a coddled mindset wherein they’ll fall flat outside of Buffalo.  

[Wayne Arnold]

Last night was just a reminder that offense is what matters.

 

Fix the OLine. Add more receiving weapons. Get more creative.

 

Offense offense offense

[Shaw66]

On 1/26/2023 at 12:05 PM, Wayne Arnold said:

Since Sunday afternoon I've seen so many Bills fans complaining about Frazier, McDermott and the defense. Upset that they couldn't shut down one of the best offenses in the NFL in the divisional playoffs. 

 

The bottom line is this: Once Allen signed that massive contract, the Bills stopped being the type of team that can shut down powerful offenses and instead moved into the category of teams that have to outscore opponents.

 

The days of a dominant Bills defense are over. The NFL's system is built that way thanks to the salary cap. We have a franchise quarterback now that's paid that way. We're not going to be able to load the roster with defensive stars going forward. 

 

Josh Allen is one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL today. That means the offense has to be dominant. The defense just has to not be terrible. Giving up 27 points is not terrible. Scoring 10 points IS terrible. This is the mentality that Bills fans are not used to but have to get there: which is to focus on the offense instead of the defense.

 

It's not ideal to get down 0-14 to start a game. But it didn't phase me. I knew the defense would adjust and for the most part they did, only giving up 13 points the rest of the way. But the 0-14 start really didn't bother me much because we have Josh Allen - I fully expected the offense to start humming and not only get back into it but eventually take the lead. But they never did. The defense gave the offense opportunities to do so but the offense failed each time.

 

Frazier isn't a schematic genius but he's not going anywhere. The system isn't going anywhere. It's good enough to not be terrible.

 

Instead, put the focus and pressure on where it now belongs - the offense:

 

• Dorsey has to get better in Year 2. The schemes he comes into the 2023 season with and his playcalling on game days.
• Beane has to upgrade the OLine. Draft, free agency...whatever. The OLine on Sunday was a total embarrassment. That's on Beane to fix it.
• Outside of Diggs, the wide receiver unit is simply not good enough. Gabe Davis ain't it. Neither is McKenzie. I like Shakir. But Beane needs to address this unit this offseason.
• Improvement from Knox, Cook, Hines - a lot of this has to do with Dorsey involving them more. But all three have major talent that must be properly utilized.

 

If all of this happens, Allen can relax and be the best quarterback on the planet in 2023. He will stop feeling like he has to be Superman every possession and just play.

 

Then the offense can be dominant.

 

That's how this team is going to win the Super Bowl. Not by being the 2000 Ravens. But by being the 1999 Rams.

I wasn't here much after the Bengals game, and I never saw this thread.  I have read nothing but the quoted post.  But, I have to say, this is right on the money.   Absolutely.   I can't say I agree with every individual recommendation, but there's nothing there that I'd argue with very much.  

 

The offense underperformed in 2022.   Which is a bit harsh, because the offense was one of the best in the league in a lot of ways, but it still underperformed.   As we see and hear all the time, Allen is the best on the planet, at least physically, and he has the brains to be the best mentally, too.  We learned today that he is by far the favorite in 2023 MVP betting.  Not Mahomes.  Allen.  If you have that weapon, then your offense has to be great.    

 

In 2022, the offense was very good with an underperforming offensive line and with at best, mediocre coaching.   Dorsey has to be much better, and the offensive line needs some better players.  In particular, it needs some guys who can dominate physically.   There are none on the line now.   

 

When the Bills have an offense that consistently builds first-half leads of 10 to 14 points and goes on from there, the current defense will be more than good enough.  

 

I would say that yes, no one should expect the 2000 Ravens, but we should expect an offense that dominates at least as well as the 2023 Chiefs, if not the 99 Rams. 

 

And in defense of the current whipping boy, Gabriel Davis, I'd say that he is just fine as the #2 to Diggs's #1, so long as the offensive line gives Allen the time he needs and Dorsey gives Allen the creative offense that he needs.   Mahomes won the Super Bowl by throwing balls to wide open receivers who are NOT known for getting separation.   His last two touchdown passes were 100% scheme and 0% talent.  Even Gabriel Davis would have caught those balls.   

[Shaw66]

On 1/29/2023 at 12:48 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

A better performance by the defense provides the offense with a few more possessions. That would have led directly to more points on the board.  And again the defense played poorly at key points of the game making it harder to generate momentum and take advantage of playing at home.  Specifically:

 

*  The D allowed the Bengals to take a big early lead.

 

*  Both times the Bills offense got them to within one score the defense promptly let Cincy go on two long, time consuming scoring drives. These were 2 key pivot points in the game that the defense allowed to slip away. By the time the O got the ball back half a quarter had been used up and the Bengals were back out in front by 2 scores.

 

 

 

 

I really think this is the wrong perspective.   

 

I think we have to recognize that when you play the Chiefs or the Bengals, you're going to give up 25-30 points.  Those are really good offenses, with excellent coaching, excellent quarterbacks, and solid execution.   Bengals have two really good wideouts and Chiefs have Kelce.   They score against just about everybody, and the nature of the game today is that it's really, really difficult to build a defense that is going to hold those teams under 20.   It just is. 

 

The only realistic way to beat those teams is to outscore them.  The offense has to put up 25-30 of its own.  And if the offense can do that against just about everybody (same as the Chiefs and Bengals do to just about everybody), then you can expect your team to be competitive with those teams in the playoffs.   

 

The defense could have been better, but the offense failed.  That's why Diggs got so upset.   He isn't unhappy about the defense.   He's unhappy about the offense.   

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I really think this is the wrong perspective.   

 

I think we have to recognize that when you play the Chiefs or the Bengals, you're going to give up 25-30 points.  Those are really good offenses, with excellent coaching, excellent quarterbacks, and solid execution.   Bengals have two really good wideouts and Chiefs have Kelce.   They score against just about everybody, and the nature of the game today is that it's really, really difficult to build a defense that is going to hold those teams under 20.   It just is. 

 

The only realistic way to beat those teams is to outscore them.  The offense has to put up 25-30 of its own.  And if the offense can do that against just about everybody (same as the Chiefs and Bengals do to just about everybody), then you can expect your team to be competitive with those teams in the playoffs.   

 

The defense could have been better, but the offense failed.  That's why Diggs got so upset.   He isn't unhappy about the defense.   He's unhappy about the offense.   

I don't think we're that far apart here and I agree with your basic premise. 

 

My point was that if you are going to direct the majority of your FA money & draft capital to the defense then it can't go out and surrender back to back long TD drives to start the game off.  Worse,when Buffalo's offense actually showed some life and made it a one score game the Bengals promptly drove the length of the field using up a lot of time and taking back a two score lead.

 

So I agree that in today's NFL you have to outscore your opponent particularly in the playoffs.  The game has been tweaked to favor the O in every possible way.  Therefore football teams must prioritize their offensive units even at the expense of their defenses. 

 

IMO the Bills offensive success over the last few seasons, which can't be denied based on their rankings and individual game performances, has been achieved in spite of the organizations strategic approach.  This success can be attributed largely to the Bills having an absolute freak at QB.  But when you compare the Bills O line and play makers to other top offenses they are deficient with the exception of QB and one WR.

 

That the Bills are inconsistent and have an offense that can disappear more then the other top O's in the NFL is a direct result of how the Bills have emphasized defense over offense in building this team. 

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I don't think we're that far apart here and I agree with your basic premise. 

 

My point was that if you are going to direct the majority of your FA money & draft capital to the defense then it can't go out and surrender back to back long TD drives to start the game off.  Worse,when Buffalo's offense actually showed some life and made it a one score game the Bengals promptly drove the length of the field using up a lot of time and taking back a two score lead.

 

So I agree that in today's NFL you have to outscore your opponent particularly in the playoffs.  The game has been tweaked to favor the O in every possible way.  Therefore football teams must prioritize their offensive units even at the expense of their defenses. 

 

IMO the Bills offensive success over the last few seasons, which can't be denied based on their rankings and individual game performances, has been achieved in spite of the organizations strategic approach.  This success can be attributed largely to the Bills having an absolute freak at QB.  But when you compare the Bills O line and play makers to other top offenses they are deficient with the exception of QB and one WR.

 

That the Bills are inconsistent and have an offense that can disappear more then the other top O's in the NFL is a direct result of how the Bills have emphasized defense over offense in building this team. 

 

 

 

 

Fair enough.  I certainly am not going to argue the point that resources have been allocated to the defense at the expense of the offense.  

 

But the resources dedicated to the defense were dedicated there precisely because the Bills want to hold the Chiefs and Bengals to 25-30, rather than letting them get 40.    You need a really good defense to keep offenses like that somewhat under control.  

 

Yes, you don't want to surrender long scoring drives to open the game, but as McD always says, you're going to have periods in the game when things don't go well.   It happens.   It happened to the Eagles in the second half of the game last night.   It just happens.  But the Bengals kept trying to score against the Bills - they weren't coasting, and they went 3, 7, 3 in the final three quarters.   That's about as much as you can expect from the defense against a team like that.  (And the Bills were playing without Hyde, without Miller, and without the real Tre White.)

 

I can't help but think that, despite your valid argument that the offense was under-resourced, one thing would have made a difference in that game and in the playoffs generally:  Daboll instead of Dorsey.   I was not a Daboll fan, and with Dorsey I expected Daboll plus some creativity.   Instead, the Bills got considerably less out Dorsey than Daboll.   In 2022, defenses adjusted and took away the things the Bills liked to do in 2021, and the Bills didn't respond.   Good, creative offensive coaching finds ways to make some things easy for the offense.   It looked easy for Allen to find Davis for four TDs in the playoffs last season against the Chiefs.   That's coaching, not some magical ability on the part of the receiver to leave the defense in the dust.  As I said, those two gimme touchdowns the Chiefs got to win the game last night were the direct result of Eric Bieniemy and his staff looking at film, identifying defensive tendencies, and designing a play that would use those tendencies against the Eagles.  Kelce running those routes that break against the flow of the defense is the same thing.   Kelce doesn't fake guys out of their shorts - he takes advantage of the defense predictably reading and reacting to keys.   We saw very little of that out of Dorsey's offense.  

 

Now, here's why I'm not in despair:  I have confidence in McDermott.  If I can see that stuff, he can, and McDermott is all about improving what needs to improve.   McDermott knows Dorsey very well, and he has opinions about whether Dorsey has the ability to grow in the job, to be creative in ways that he needs to be.  If McDermott believes that Dorsey has what it takes, he will identify those needs in his work with Dorsey, and he and Dorsey will work a plan for Dorsey to get better.   If his review and analysis of Dorsey tells him that Dorsey just isn't likely to be be able to do it, he will move on from Dorsey.  That's how McDermott operates.   That's why we saw Al Holcomb hired, and it's why they changed safety coaches - McDermott identified areas where aspects of the coaching needed to change to get the performance he wants out of the players he has.  And he may have hired Holcomb because he knows that Frazier will retire soon, or something.   

 

McDermott's approach is to help people grow, and when he thinks they can't grown any more, he replaces them.  I'm guessing that he know Dorsey well enough that he expects the offense, even with the same personnel as he had this season, to be better.   He expects Dorsey to get better at preparing his offense on a weekly basis, to study how to attack this week's opponent and how to prepare the team to do that.  It's not an unusual expectation.   Daboll got better at his OC job.   Josh McDaniel grew into his success as OC at the Patriots.   

 

Finally, let's recognize that what we're talking about is the last 2% of improvement.   It's not like this was a lousy offense.  A lot of people did a lot of things right for the offense to as good as it was.  The Bills were second in yards, second in scoring, second in DVOA.   That's an outstanding offense.   Trying to figure out how to tweak it to be just that much better may require only a little improvement here or there, but it's the problem of the last mile.   It isn't necessarily easy to get there.  As I said, I have confidence in McDermott.  There isn't anything we see that he doesn't.  

 

[BFLO]

On 1/29/2023 at 12:48 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

A better performance by the defense provides the offense with a few more possessions. That would have led directly to more points on the board.  And again the defense played poorly at key points of the game making it harder to generate momentum and take advantage of playing at home.  Specifically:

 

*  The D allowed the Bengals to take a big early lead.

 

*  Both times the Bills offense got them to within one score the defense promptly let Cincy go on two long, time consuming scoring drives. These were 2 key pivot points in the game that the defense allowed to slip away. By the time the O got the ball back half a quarter had been used up and the Bengals were back out in front by 2 scores.

 

 

 

 

Even if the Bills defense forced a few more possessions do you honestly think our O would have done anything with them?

 

As it stood the Bills had 8 possessions and the Bengals had 9. That's with Josh's late interception giving the bengals an extra one. 8-8 otherwise

 

Look at our possessions:

PUNT 3 PLAYS, 6 YARDS, 1:38

PUNT 3 PLAYS, 5 YARDS, 1:36

TOUCHDOWN 15 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 7:41

PUNT 7 PLAYS, 39 YARDS, 1:09

FIELD GOAL 14 PLAYS, 65 YARDS, 7:18

PUNT 3 PLAYS, 8 YARDS, 1:15

DOWNS 10 PLAYS, 59 YARDS, 3:59

INTERCEPTION 8 PLAYS, 53 YARDS, 1:30

 

 

It doesn't matter how good your defense is if the offense does what ours did. You're not beating KC or CIN 10-9.