Fire Frazier? McDermott? Nah. Bills fans have to switch their mentality re: defense

[Wayne Arnold]

Since Sunday afternoon I've seen so many Bills fans complaining about Frazier, McDermott and the defense. Upset that they couldn't shut down one of the best offenses in the NFL in the divisional playoffs. 

 

The bottom line is this: Once Allen signed that massive contract, the Bills stopped being the type of team that can shut down powerful offenses and instead moved into the category of teams that have to outscore opponents.

 

The days of a dominant Bills defense are over. The NFL's system is built that way thanks to the salary cap. We have a franchise quarterback now that's paid that way. We're not going to be able to load the roster with defensive stars going forward. 

 

Josh Allen is one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL today. That means the offense has to be dominant. The defense just has to not be terrible. Giving up 27 points is not terrible. Scoring 10 points IS terrible. This is the mentality that Bills fans are not used to but have to get there: which is to focus on the offense instead of the defense.

 

It's not ideal to get down 0-14 to start a game. But it didn't phase me. I knew the defense would adjust and for the most part they did, only giving up 13 points the rest of the way. But the 0-14 start really didn't bother me much because we have Josh Allen - I fully expected the offense to start humming and not only get back into it but eventually take the lead. But they never did. The defense gave the offense opportunities to do so but the offense failed each time.

 

Frazier isn't a schematic genius but he's not going anywhere. The system isn't going anywhere. It's good enough to not be terrible.

 

Instead, put the focus and pressure on where it now belongs - the offense:

 

• Dorsey has to get better in Year 2. The schemes he comes into the 2023 season with and his playcalling on game days.
• Beane has to upgrade the OLine. Draft, free agency...whatever. The OLine on Sunday was a total embarrassment. That's on Beane to fix it.
• Outside of Diggs, the wide receiver unit is simply not good enough. Gabe Davis ain't it. Neither is McKenzie. I like Shakir. But Beane needs to address this unit this offseason.
• Improvement from Knox, Cook, Hines - a lot of this has to do with Dorsey involving them more. But all three have major talent that must be properly utilized.

 

If all of this happens, Allen can relax and be the best quarterback on the planet in 2023. He will stop feeling like he has to be Superman every possession and just play.

 

Then the offense can be dominant.

 

That's how this team is going to win the Super Bowl. Not by being the 2000 Ravens. But by being the 1999 Rams.

[wvbillsfan]

I can agree to an extent. Offensively we need to be better 

 

However 

2021 KC dominated us. They moved the ball up and down the field 

2022 Couldn’t get a stop against KC

2023 Bengals went up and down the field 

 

The defense can’t be great in the regular season and shrink in the playoffs. Someone has to be accountable for those failures. 

[dave mcbride]

The Bengals could have scored 41 in that game if they needed to. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

I understand what you're saying, really. But what about those games like KC last year, where Josh and the O are doing everything humanly possible to win the game, but we're up against one of the other 3 best QB's in the league, and need to get just one stop to ice the game? The problem isn't outscoring everyone in the regular season for 90% of your games with a winning Frazier formula, it's getting over the hump in the playoffs when you need good complementary football to win it all that last 10% (where Frazier inevitably refuses to change it up), jmho though.  

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Just no. Fix the defense. It’s a philosophy that’s broken. There are no rules saying if you have a good QB that your defense isn’t allowed to be good

[The Firebaugh Kid]

The defense has to have playmakers. Not be a juggernaut. The Bills were different with Von Miller. He won that KC game in the end. Such a shame we lost him. 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

The defense has to have playmakers. Not be a juggernaut. The Bills were different with Von Miller. He won that KC game in the end. Such a shame we lost him. 

 

As long as we give some of the best receivers in the NFL a 10-yard cushion/running start, there could never be enough playmakers to overcome a well-coached and well-prepared opposing offense.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

As long as we give some of the best receivers in the NFL a 10-yard cushion/running start, there could never be enough playmakers to overcome a well-coached and well-prepared opposing offense.

Can't argue that. I have zero explanation as to how that defensive philosophy is going to produce a positive outcome. 

[Joe Ferguson]

[Jrb1979]

11 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Just no. Fix the defense. It’s a philosophy that’s broken. There are no rules saying if you have a good QB that your defense isn’t allowed to be good

It's exactly that. Their defense works well in the regular season when you aren't playing top 5 offenses each week. The one thing I don't get is why they rarely take what worked the previous week against the team they are playing and incorporating some of it into their game day plan. 

 

I know the Bills has injuries but why didn't they do what Baltimore did the week earlier. Baltimore had multiple stops against the Bengals. Same argument could be said for the offense. Baltimore's plan of attack worked and Lamar played they may have beaten them. 

 

For some reason the Bills refuse to change their game plan 

[Wayne Arnold]

12 minutes ago, wvbillsfan said:

I can agree to an extent. Offensively we need to be better 

 

However 

2021 KC dominated us. They moved the ball up and down the field 

2022 Couldn’t get a stop against KC

2023 Bengals went up and down the field 

 

The defense can’t be great in the regular season and shrink in the playoffs. Someone has to be accountable for those failures. 

 

As a whole the defense has played reasonably well in the playoffs under Frazier. Per Adam Penzel of cover1.net, "Of the 29 teams that have made playoff appearances since his first season in 2017, the Bills’ defense ranks 12th in dropback success rate allowed, 13th in dropback EPA/a, and 14th in EPA/a against on all plays, when adjusting for garbage time by filtering for plays with a win probability between 2%-98%. Kansas City, New England, and Philadelphia are all ranked well below the Bills in these aforementioned categories, yet each of these teams has won a Super Bowl in that very same window."

 

To address your examples, we weren't quite good enough to compete with the Chiefs in 2020.

 

Last year was our year IMO. We were peaking at the right time. 13 seconds will haunt me and all of us forever (or at least until we win it all). Mahomes and Kelce took our souls that day. A simple squib kick could've changed everything.

 

I just can't pin the loss on Sunday on the defense. Could they have been better? Sure. They gave up 27 points to a great Bengals QB and offense. Not good enough, but Buffalo's offense should've scored 30. That's where I'm at.

21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bengals could have scored 41 in that game if they needed to. 

 

And they didn't need to because the offense laid an egg.

[John from Riverside]

To me, this is more about what happened when the playoffs hit on both sides of the ball

[sven233]

This defensive system relies on getting pressure on the QB.  If the QB is unaffected, there is no scheme on the back-end to make things difficult on the QB and the good ones will already know where the back-end is vulnerable.  It's good enough to slow down bad teams, and there are a lot of average to below average teams that you play in the regular season to boost your stats and make the defense look better than it is.  But in the Playoffs, you need to beat the best of the best all the way through and that is why we have failed on defense the last several times in the Playoffs.  Good QBs can beat this system when you don't get consistent pressure and even with all of the investments we have made up front over the last few years, the pass rush has not created pressure in the Playoffs at all and that is the main factor why they can't get stops. 

[billieve420]

Bengals don't have an imposing defensive team. Coaching plays huge part in this and their defensive coordinator was able to limit what the Bills do best and Dorsey had no answers. Whether it was simulated pressure or blitzes the offense looked out of sync and confused. I have yet to see McDermott/Frazier come close to doing this. They beat up on the weak teams but when they come up against legit QB have no answers and are completely outclassed.

Edited January 26, 2023 by billieve420

[Gugny]

11 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson said:

 

Regular Season Warriors.

 

Add THAT to the list of things I have no interest in.

[T master]

17 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Since Sunday afternoon I've seen so many Bills fans complaining about Frazier, McDermott and the defense. Upset that they couldn't shut down one of the best offenses in the NFL in the divisional playoffs. 

 

The bottom line is this: Once Allen signed that massive contract, the Bills stopped being the type of team that can shut down powerful offenses and instead moved into the category of teams that have to outscore opponents.

 

The days of a dominant Bills defense are over. The NFL's system is built that way thanks to the salary cap. We have a franchise quarterback now that's paid that way. We're not going to be able to load the roster with defensive stars going forward. 

 

Josh Allen is one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL today. That means the offense has to be dominant. The defense just has to not be terrible. Giving up 27 points is not terrible. Scoring 10 points IS terrible. This is the mentality that Bills fans are not used to but have to get there: which is to focus on the offense instead of the defense.

 

It's not ideal to get down 0-14 to start a game. But it didn't phase me. I knew the defense would adjust and for the most part they did, only giving up 13 points the rest of the way. But the 0-14 start really didn't bother me much because we have Josh Allen - I fully expected the offense to start humming and not only get back into it but eventually take the lead. But they never did. The defense gave the offense opportunities to do so but the offense failed each time.

 

Frazier isn't a schematic genius but he's not going anywhere. The system isn't going anywhere. It's good enough to not be terrible.

 

Instead, put the focus and pressure on where it now belongs - the offense:

 

• Dorsey has to get better in Year 2. The schemes he comes into the 2023 season with and his playcalling on game days.
• Beane has to upgrade the OLine. Draft, free agency...whatever. The OLine on Sunday was a total embarrassment. That's on Beane to fix it.
• Outside of Diggs, the wide receiver unit is simply not good enough. Gabe Davis ain't it. Neither is McKenzie. I like Shakir. But Beane needs to address this unit this offseason.
• Improvement from Knox, Cook, Hines - a lot of this has to do with Dorsey involving them more. But all three have major talent that must be properly utilized.

 

If all of this happens, Allen can relax and be the best quarterback on the planet in 2023. He will stop feeling like he has to be Superman every possession and just play.

 

Then the offense can be dominant.

 

That's how this team is going to win the Super Bowl. Not by being the 2000 Ravens. But by being the 1999 Rams.

 

I can say i do agree with some of your points but not all, Yes Dorsey needs to get better, yes the O line is in need of some upgrades yes Knox, Cook , Hines, Morris, Shakir, all need to be utilized better all valid points .

 

But i don't agree : outside of Diggs the WR unit is just not good enough sorry i'm not in with that ! I'll ask you this question how many times did you see Brady take mediocre WR's & him take his team to the play offs & the SB ?

 

In the game against the Bengals IF Dorsey would have had a game plan that was of the 2 step drop quick pass kind that game would have been totally different & Romo even said as much in his commentary, when they did employ that strategy they moved the ball but went back to the deep ball thing & Josh held it to long .

 

The strategy that the Bengals used was perfect & it was mostly quick underneath routes so Burrow could get rid of the ball quickly which is what Beasely, Shakir, Mckenzie all do very well yet Josh & Dorsey chose to do a 7 step drop Josh would pat the ball waiting for the WR to come open & SACK !!

 

I believe with the weapons the Bills have with adjustments to a shorter or underneath passing game it would have slowed the pass rush, pulled the DB's up & opened up the long ball plus there were plenty of times that the RB's were open in the flat too so i feel the emphasis is on play calling more than the talent available .

 

Just go back & look at the WR's for Brady that were 1 yr wonders that went on to sign big contracts & did little or nothing after that it is more scheme & play calling . Although it would be nice to have a Diggs at every position with the cap that's not going to be & the guys we have on the roster have proven they can be better than that game had shown them to be .

 

I would have loved to see what Dabol would have done with our offense in that game i believe there would have been a different outcome . But that's just me .

[Low Positive]

When you have an offense that can score a lot of points, forcing the other team to chew up clock by preventing the big plays is counter productive. We should be playing attacking defense in an attempt to get the ball back to Josh and the offense. In the Bills case, a 7-minute TD scoring drive is really the worst possible outcome.

[Repulsif]

great

so let's try to only focus on offense (, hoping that new offense is 100% a success) then loose the next PO game 33-42

sounds like a fine idea

[Wayne Arnold]

14 minutes ago, T master said:

But i don't agree : outside of Diggs the WR unit is just not good enough sorry i'm not in with that ! I'll ask you this question how many times did you see Brady take mediocre WR's & him take his team to the play offs & the SB ?

 

How many #2 wide receivers did Brady have during his Patriots career that had as many drops as Gabe Davis? Drops kill drives. And I'm afraid for Davis that horrible ball skills isn't something that can be corrected.

 

Brady wouldn't be considered the best QB of all time if his receivers consistently dropped passes like Allen's receivers did this season. 

[Gregg]

28 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

It's exactly that. Their defense works well in the regular season when you aren't playing top 5 offenses each week. The one thing I don't get is why they rarely take what worked the previous week against the team they are playing and incorporating some of it into their game day plan. 

 

I know the Bills has injuries but why didn't they do what Baltimore did the week earlier. Baltimore had multiple stops against the Bengals. Same argument could be said for the offense. Baltimore's plan of attack worked and Lamar played they may have beaten them. 

 

For some reason the Bills refuse to change their game plan 

 

Another game the Bills could have looked at was the Bengals-Pats game in Dec. The Bengals jumped out to a huge lead. It looked like it was going to be a blowout. Belichick made adjustments and the Bengals offense struggled the rest of the way. The Pats came all the way back and almost won the game. I believe they fumbled at the Bengals 5-yard line late in the 4th quarter which let CIN escape win a win.