2023 Offseason Primer: WR/TE

[Milanos Milano]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

He is. My initial round grade is 3/4. So when writing this i only went with my initial grades that I have on the guys. I also have slot only??? Next to him. My intent this draft was to grab outside guys because this team is loaded with Slots. 
 

When I dig into the draft heavily in about a couple weeks he likely will move into the second. But my initial grading kind of pointed to a thin top end of WRS in this class with the value being rounds 3-4

Who is on your list of round 1-2 WRs that you want to see targeted? 

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Who is on your list of round 1-2 WRs that you want to see targeted? 

RIght now my main target is Rashee Rice, from SMU.  I see DK Metcalf as a rookie and alot of talent there, Raw Routes coming from a pure spread (I count 5 or 6 routes he runs) But if he times in the 4.4s like expected I have no issue taking him in the first. 

 

Another I like is Boutte from LSU there in the first as well.  

26 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I wonder if we could trade McKenzie to the Giants for a mid round pick? I do wonder if Daboll would be interested.

What is a Mid round pick.  a 3rd and I am listening really close and probably pull that trigger.  a 4th and I think the Value at his cap hit is too good for a 4th

[khlax3]

12 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

He's a good receiver on short and intermediate routes. Can play inside and out. 

 

I think Josh would do for him what he did for Jon Brown and Cole Beasley when they were first signed, elevate his play resulting in the best performance of his career. 

 

He's a potential 1,000 yard reciever in this offense and a #2 posession wr. 

 

Also makes us better while weakening our divisional opponent. 

 

100% agree with you. I think he can be had for a reasonable price and he is still young. He instantly upgrades the #2 and #3 with Davis moving to the 3 over McKenzie. I would still take a bigger size/speed WR in the 2nd or 3rd to compete with gabe and then take over for him once he hit free agency. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by khlax3

[Mark Vader]

9 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I thought about it that is a 10-12M AAV contract.  I dont think I would want to go there this year.  I would rather get the young stud in the 1st with WR1 potential on a cost controlled rookie deal for 5 years.  Then when he is time to get paid 99.99999% chance Diggs contract is off the books.

First of all, another great write-up.

 

I've been tough on Isaiah McKenzie, however, he doesn't cost that much, so it's not that imperative to get rid of him. I would just like to see Khalil Shakir get more touches.

 

I think Jakobi Meyers would be a good addition, but depends on how much he would cost. The thought of making a play for Michael Thomas is intriguing, but the injury history makes me nervous.

 

As for the draft, you can forget about Quentin Johnston & Smith-Njigba. They will be long gone when we pick. Rashee Rice would be a nice pick, and players like Zay Flowers & Cedric Tillman are ones to look for. 

I really like Rakim Jarrett from Maryland as well.

 

I don't think that Tight End is an area we need to address. Knox is fine and I would like to see Morris get more opportunities. No point in spending any money here, and they could draft one late or sign a UDFA.

[MAJBobby]

25 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

First of all, another great write-up.  Appreciate it, Love the conversations that follow, I always learn multiple things reading the replies.

 

I've been tough on Isaiah McKenzie, however, he doesn't cost that much, so it's not that imperative to get rid of him. I would just like to see Khalil Shakir get more touches.  I agree Here if he was a 5-7M WR I would say Cut him.  But really is a less than 3M WR and was productive, will be hard to replace that Return on that price (other than a rookie Contract).  I think the route you go here is he goes to camp, and then if he is like WR4 or WR5 he will get traded at that point.  I do think Shakir should take all his Targets, and probably should also take about 10-20 from Gabe Davis too.  

 

I think Jakobi Meyers would be a good addition, but depends on how much he would cost. The thought of making a play for Michael Thomas is intriguing, but the injury history makes me nervous.  Jakobi has Drew R. as Agent.  He will get maximum value in UFA like Drew always does.  Look for this contract to be around the 13M AAV for Meyers.  I do worry about the INJ issues there too and that actually might be why he is affordable, With already a 20M AAV WR On the team, I almost just want to stay in the draft for the additional weapons at this point, Use the Cap Space to but the OL.  The reason I think this is 1. Rookie WRs have been becoming much more productive in year 1 than in the past, and 2. Rookie OL has seemed to struggle making early impacts (unlike the past) it is like the impact windows for the two positions have flipped over the last decade.

 

As for the draft, you can forget about Quentin Johnston & Smith-Njigba. They will be long gone when we pick. Rashee Rice would be a nice pick, and players like Zay Flowers & Cedric Tillman are ones to look for. 

I really like Rakim Jarrett from Maryland as well.

 

I don't think that Tight End is an area we need to address. Knox is fine and I would like to see Morris get more opportunities. No point in spending any money here, and they could draft one late or sign a UDFA.

Like all this.  Made some comments inline as well

Edited January 27, 2023 by MAJBobby

[LABILLBACKER]

Another great write up OP. I like Rice alot especially if he comes in under 4.45.  Not a fan of keeping McKenzie. That ship has sailed. No FA's have any appeal to me also. Beasley,  Brown,  Crowder,  Kumerow and Sweeney all gonzo.  Patmon maybe stays as insurance.  Draft a 2nd wr later. Trading up for Quentin Johnston would be too costly unless he falls?

[Milanos Milano]

7 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Another great write up OP. I like Rice alot especially if he comes in under 4.45.  Not a fan of keeping McKenzie. That ship has sailed. No FA's have any appeal to me also. Beasley,  Brown,  Crowder,  Kumerow and Sweeney all gonzo.  Patmon maybe stays as insurance.  Draft a 2nd wr later. Trading up for Quentin Johnston would be too costly unless he falls?

 
I would draft Hyatt and then Rice with the 2nd pick. That would give Allen with 2 new WRs that run under 4.4 . Rounds 3, 4, 5, 5 get fully dedicated to Oline. 

[Airseven]

Between the scheme and getting handcuffed by a porous OL, I have no faith this team will ever feature TE. Lost opportunity. Obviously, Knox is talented and Morris is a decent developmental backup. I bet they add a bargain vet free agent given their flirtation with Howard last year or, less likely, invest one of the 5th rd picks.

I have to admit it’d be hilarious if they re-sign Sweeney.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Airseven

[dave mcbride]

Awesome stuff, @MAJBobby! The minor correction I’d recommend is that in your Knox writeup where you flag his decline in numbers from this season to last, you don’t account for the fact that the Bills played one less game. Given that the Bills were going to be throwing it a lot that game, he may have ended up getting decent numbers.

Edited January 27, 2023 by dave mcbride

[harmonkillebrew]

Josh Downs could be a good option, likely in the 2nd.  He's a super productive slot WR with speed.  We need more production from the slot.

I'd also sign a FA WR to replace/compete with Gabe for the #2 role.  There are established vets like Brandin Cooks or OBJ that will be available

[Fixxxer]

23 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

Idk why McKenzie is a lock for everyone - dude missed his opportunity 

 

see ya

 

he's obviously not a fit for what Dorsey wants on offense. Dabol had no trouble involving him in the gameplan. Waste of cap space if you're not having him in your plans. He could be productive, though, with Dorsey, he won't. 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Awesome stuff, @MAJBobby! The minor correction I’d recommend is that in your Knox writeup where you flag his decline in numbers from this season to last, you don’t account for the fact that the Bills played one less game. Given that the Bills were going to be throwing it a lot that game, he may have ended up getting decent numbers.

Very true. And reality he did draw a lot of need to help the OL assignments as wel because they where just so bad. 

[BILLSINATL]

I like Rice end of round 1 then get a burner mid rounds. 

 

Diggs

Rice

Davis

Shakir

Mckenzie 

Mid round speed WR

[MrEpsYtown]

My thrift shop WR targets look like this:
 

I would like them to take a look at Randall Cobb. An older guy yes, but I think he could come here and be the Emmanuel Sanders vet who makes big plays for Josh.  
 

A slot guy who may be a bit under the radar is Scotty Miller. Runs in the 4.3s and has shown off that speed in games. He catches the ball and has had some very good games in the past in which he kind of took over. He is coming off a bit of a down year. Can he become a faster Cole Beasley? Maybe. All I know is he is faster and younger than Zay McKenzie. 

I really like Mack Hollins from the Raiders. Honestly whenever I watch them, he makes plays. He is aggressive and he really blocks. He should not be expensive. Hollins is huge, fast, and excels on special teams but is also a functional receiver. He can replace Kumerow as a gunner and actually help the offense. Plus he is a super weird dude, which is awesome. 
 

Another under the radar guy who continues to make plays for KC is Justin Watson. Big athlete, great size, big hands and ball skills. Super smart UPENN kid. He posted a big time RAS, 6-2, 215, a 4.4 forty and 40 inch vert. He is showing that he can play in the NFL with KC. 
 

Edited January 27, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I’ll admit I only watched a highlight video, and yes I get he’s small, but gotta bring Zay Flowers back up.
 

Separation running routes, quickness squaring after making a catch, making guys miss with the football, full or close to full route tree, breaking tackles, playing with fire, and winning deep/jump balls. 

[NeverOutNick]

@MAJBobby since you’re good with the numbers and I love your takes on going heavy on O line and WR in the draft because that’s where we need the most help, do you think it’s possible to fit Hopkins contract in our cap if it only costed us a 3rd round pick or heck maybe we get him straight up for Oliver?

[MAJBobby]

7 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

@MAJBobby since you’re good with the numbers and I love your takes on going heavy on O line and WR in the draft because that’s where we need the most help, do you think it’s possible to fit Hopkins contract in our cap if it only costed us a 3rd round pick or heck maybe we get him straight up for Oliver?

We can fit his current contract in the cap. It would limit what we could do elsewhere.  Unless post trade we restructure add a couple years. Give guaranteed money in a signing bonus and prorate the high base salary. Could probably get his cap it in the Mid single digits. That said I am not trading Oliver for him. And it would cost likely a 1st to get him which I want no part of either. 

[NeverOutNick]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

We can fit his current contract in the cap. It would limit what we could do elsewhere.  Unless post trade we restructure add a couple years. Give guaranteed money in a signing bonus and prorate the high base salary. Could probably get his cap it in the Mid single digits. That said I am not trading Oliver for him. And it would cost likely a 1st to get him which I want no part of either. 

100% agree I would not trade for him unless it costs us a 3rd or later and he’s wanting to win a SB and being the 1b to Diggs 1a and not wanting to rape us with a new contract. He’s a win now WR who at his best is still a top 5 WR in the league with incredible hands. If there is a way to get him on our team with a team that is so close to winning it all I say it’s worth looking into. Getting a rookie WR on a rookie contract sounds amazing but isn’t a guaranteed instant hit. In my dream scenario we hit on a couple O linemen with our first few picks, nab Hopkins for a mid round pick and find another WR somewhere in the draft. After the dust settles there are so many free agent RBs available this year that I feel comfortable waiting on one to mix in with Cook and Hines. Lastly, the D isn’t the priority this offseason outside of looking into Flores as our new DC if Frazier retires or is let go. I think a change in scheme will make a huge difference with the players we already have in place. The priority is to nurture Josh so he’s not having to be Superman anymore. 

[MAJBobby]

9 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

100% agree I would not trade for him unless it costs us a 3rd or later and he’s wanting to win a SB and being the 1b to Diggs 1a and not wanting to rape us with a new contract. He’s a win now WR who at his best is still a top 5 WR in the league with incredible hands. If there is a way to get him on our team with a team that is so close to winning it all I say it’s worth looking into. Getting a rookie WR on a rookie contract sounds amazing but isn’t a guaranteed instant hit. In my dream scenario we hit on a couple O linemen with our first few picks, nab Hopkins for a mid round pick and find another WR somewhere in the draft. After the dust settles there are so many free agent RBs available this year that I feel comfortable waiting on one to mix in with Cook and Hines. Lastly, the D isn’t the priority this offseason outside of looking into Flores as our new DC if Frazier retires or is let go. I think a change in scheme will make a huge difference with the players we already have in place. The priority is to nurture Josh so he’s not having to be Superman anymore. 

I understand you thinking. I am a bit on the opposite there. Reason being I do think RT is a major need as well as OGs. I would rather go into UFA and fill the starters there because I don’t really like the OL class in this draft. So I think UFAs even with UFA contracts are safer on the OL. 
 

then go into the draft for two rookies. If they want to really push all their chips this year you can get the OT, 2OGs and WR (Hopkins) in UFA. That will likely cause a small reset in 2024 or 2025 (similar to what KC did this offseason moving Hill, ETC). 
 

I think I am going to put a pin in my position group write ups and do a Primer on the Cap next before I go to the rest of the offense and defense. That way there is a look at the cap health. And how we can get space 

 

 

[No_Matter_What]

On 1/26/2023 at 11:09 PM, BuffaninSarasota said:

There is no way Washington will be available in the third. He's been mocked by everyone in the first round and it's warranted. He's essentially an extra OL who can get loose after the catch and has even more upside as a pro. He played second fiddle to Brock Bowers, the best TE in NCAA FB.

Are you sure about this? Tankathon has him at 39 on their big board and the way I understand it they don't create their own board, they basically compile it from other sources.