MAJBobby Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 OK here we are the second position group offseason primer. I went with the WR/TE group, because IMO the top two priorities this offseason should be the OL (first one) and WR/TE (this one). So what you will likely see is I will finish out the offense and then move over to the defense. Unlike the OL there will be more individual stats posted in my analysis here, because well position groups have a lot to work from. I know there will be many here that don’t agree with me and that is fine, but it Is my Opinion we had one of if not arguably the weakest WR/TE group out of all the playoff teams. That is something that will have to change, and to be honest the way to do that is only really have one that you buy and then an elite Stud on a Rookie Deal. That gives so much flexibility. The Bengals are the Bengals (probably the most complete team in the league) because majority of their studs are all on Rookie Deals. Watch what happens when Cheap Paul Brown has to start cutting those 100M contracts. The standard disclaimer: I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information. I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats. Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future. So here we go … Financials: Pretty Big Update here with the Futures Signings Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M Cap Space (top 51): -15.984M (one thing on this and I should have put it in one of the earlier writeups as well. OTC shows that the Bills can get up to 55M in space with just simple restructures and 76.6M in space on Max restructure capability. WRs – 7 players on contact taking up 12.30% of CAP, 17th highest in the NFL. TEs - players on contact taking up 3.59% of CAP, 19th highest in the NFL. WR is a one player top heavy group with Stef Diggs taking Up 20.26M in cap on a position group all 7 players account for a 27.88M cap hit as a hole. So I think the Bills are set up a bit correctly here with one paid In his prime and small and rookie contracts filling out the group. So the theory with this set up would be your next Rookie Contract player should make a choice, it he a WR1? If the answer is yes you can then look to flip your aging WR1 that is on the Big Cap hit as you sign your younger player to their Big cap hit. However I do not see the Bills in that position at all. As the next best WR (Gabe Davis) is arguably not even a WR2, going into his final year of his rookie deal. RFA WRs / TE None UFA WRs / TE Cole Beasley (WR) – 34 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – Nothing to see here as was a PS player elevated every game late in the Season. – First thing I will say is this is really telling of the status of the Bills WR groups that you have to sign two retirees late in the season gearing up for your playoff run. Not much here to really talk about due to the limited amount of games. But I have NO desire to bring Beasley back on this team, there is no juice left to squeeze there, Unless he is willing to accept the league Min here for him which is just over 1M I do not want him on the team taking snaps away from Shakir or my new rookies. It is time to turn the page here. John Brown (WR) – 33 years old, Cap It in 2022 – Nothing to see here just like Beasley – This is a mirror image as above, just turn the page there is nothing left in this turnip. Move on, would not be worth the Vet Min IMO, at least I could maybe get convinced of a vet min on Beasley. Turn the Page from the 2019/2020 Bills already. Jamison Crowder (WR) – 30 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.98M, The story of the lost year. I think he was on pace for solidifying the slot early in the season then went down with Injury (actually likely predictable giving his recent INJ problems in NY). When he went down in Baltimore I do think that is when you saw the “growth of the Dorsey offense” stop and the Bills went back to a poor man’s Daboll type offense. That said I think the lost year cost him his roster spot in the future with the Bills, so I let him walk. Jake Kumerow (WR) – 31 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 895K – And the final member of the over 30 listless WR crowd I bring you Jake Kumerow. I have nothing more to say here than Move on. Tommy Sweeney (TE) – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 654K – Nothing to say here, has been given EVERY opportunity to make a name for himself and failed. Moving on from him as Morris has passed him on the depth chart. On Contract Stefon Diggs age 30, 8.94% of cap, 20.256M cap hit (There is a slight savings with a Post June 1 Cut, better savings with a post June 1 trade) – OK I had to put the savings information here, but next year Diggs isn’t going anywhere, his true first out is after the 2024 season. Now that said there is a simple restructure opportunity here with a 7.9M base, I personally would not go into his contract for money if possible. Because starting in 2024 his base numbers are (18.5, 18, 19, 14.4). As he gets older I am less and less inclined with touching his contract and kicking that can down the road. However that being said Diggs SHOULD age rather gracefully as a WR, because of his route running ability and how he takes care of his body on the field. One can argue Diggs is coming off his best year as a Buffalo Bill. Which is very encouraging as he ages. 154 targets (best year 166 – 20), Rec 108 (best yr 127 – 20), yards 1429 (best year 1525 – 20), Yards per Rec 13.2 (Best as a Bill), TDs 11 (Best as a Bill) 70.1% catch % (Best year 76.5% - 20), Yards per Target 9.3 (best as a Bill). All Pro Second Team, Pro Bowl. In 3 years in Buffalo Stef already met or exceeded the 5 years of his career in Minny. Some advanced numbers: Total Air Yards before catch 1010 (2020 was 1071 and 2021 was 899), which points to him running a bit deeper routes this year. He had 419 yards after catch this year which was an increase to his 326 last year. He did have 8 drops this year (2020 he had 8 as well) which is the most he has logged in a year. But had a career best of 120.3 rating when passes went his way. The numbers show that he was the best producing (outside of Allen) on Offense which we all already know. However what is encouraging here is that there is no significant drop off with Diggs, so that helps me believe he will age well and this contract will not be an issue in the future even if we do a restructure here this year or next year. Gabriel Davis age 24, 0.52% of cap, 1.18M cap hit (1.01M in savings) – Final year of his Rookie Deal. I am not touching this contract. He was in position to earn that extension this offseason, I don’t personally think he earned that contract extension yet. I would have him play out his rookie deal and address it in the next offseason. In terms of his numbers as the Full time No2 last year you would hope to see real growth and it isn’t just there for the increase of looks he got. Gabe had 93 targets (this is a 30 target increase over his past years), 48 catches (13 catch increase), 836 yards (300 yard increase, this was the biggest increase he had), 17.4 yards per reception this was in line with his rookie year and an increase of 1.7 yards per over last year). 7 TDs is right in line with where he was in first two years with 30 less targets. 51.6% catch rate, this is a decrease (meaning more incomplete when targeted) than he had last year, to be honest this has decreased EVERY year, (56.5% rookie year, 55.6% in 2021, 51.6% last year) he had 9 drops this year and a massive 20 point drop in rating when targeted from 103.2 (100.1 rookie year) to a 80.8 rating when targeted this past year. So even with the increase in targets there was minimal to no improvement in all the other stats, and in some areas is a regression in some KEY areas. This is why I think I am just letting him play out his contract this upcoming year. He still only really runs 5 routes and IMO regressed this year even becoming a more prominent target eater. Isaiah McKenzie, age 29, 1.11 % against cap, 2.52M cap hit (2.225M savings) – I know many here will want him gone, and I probably would get there too. He can be released anytime this offseason and realize those savings. The big thing there is no triggered guarantees somewhere in this contract. Lets get in the numbers. Targets 65 (career Best), 42 receptions (career best), 27 first downs (Career Best), Catch % 64.6% (best year was 88.2% in 2020), 4 TDs, 6 drops a 90.7 rating when targeted. Now lets look at Davis, when you have a massive increase in targets you would hope to see some career bests and you do see them with McKenzie. Also the Numbers say he was the second highest rating when targeted in WRs that had over the 60 Targets (2nd to Diggs) those numbers do not scream a problem to me. And If I get those numbers similar in 2023 at the Small cap hit of 2.52M that would be a value contract there. However I also think I can replace that production with a rookie as well so could get some cap savings with McKenzie being released, but to be honest there is progression here with increased usage compared to Gabe Regression with increased usage. Khalil Shakir age 23, 0.41% against cap, 956K cap hit (696K potential savings) – Seldom used Rookie (I just don’t get the reluctance to play rookies early on offense with this team) But on defense those rookies sure do start or log meaningful snaps early. I can go through from Allen (they didn’t want him to play his rookie year), Davis, Cook, Shakir, Hodgins, far to often I have noticed Rookies on Offense get shelved early. I thought he would be used A LOT more than he was, and when he did get used seemed to make plays. Anyway the numbers 20 targets, 10 receptions, 161 yards 50% catch rate and a 94.0 rating when targeted. Playoffs he saw much more usage with 7 targets 5 receptions 91 yards, 71.4% catch rate and a rating when targeted of 94.0. He as a Rookie had a above 90 rating when targeted. And this is why I don’t want to bring back any of the retirees to take targets from Him in the Future. Keesean Johnson, age 27, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (1.01M potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 6th round Draft pick of Cardinals in 2019), been on Cardinals, Eagles (PS) and Atlanta. Former Fresno State WR (followed DeVante Adams), He is a 6’1 201 with 4.6 timed speed. So, a Size player being brought into Camp. I don’t expect much here at already 27 and on his 4th team. Dezmon Patmon, age 25, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (1.01M potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 6th round Draft pick of Colts in 2020), Size, Speed Candidate. 6’4 225 with a timed 4.48 speed. Here is what one writeup on his draft said “Big pass-catcher with intriguing size but lacking the assertiveness to impose his will. Patmon suffers from an overall lack of suddenness to uncover on both the first and second levels and issues with focus drops is an additional concern since he'll see plenty of contested catches. He has decent buildup speed, body control and ball skills to compete for 50/50 balls, but he doesn't always play with "my-ball" attitude. He's big but limited and must play with better confidence and toughness to carve out a roster spot.” I think there is a chance he lands on the roster (unless we address WR in UFA and Draft, we just don’t have this type of player with Hodgins on Giants now). What is interesting here is out of the three Futures Deals he got 10k in guaranteed money, not groundbreaking by any means but Johnson was 6,500 and Coulter was 5,000. Isaiah Coulter, age 25, 0.41% against cap, 940K cap hit (940K potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 5th round Draft pick of Texans in 2020), what is interesting about this futures signing, is that it is a 2 year deal. He is also on contract in 2024 for 1.055M cap hit. He was a Raw Size Speed guy coming out of college, here is one writeup. “Raw but talented X receiver with NFL-caliber length, speed and athletic ability. He runs a limited route tree and doesn't show enough attention to detail in his route work, but he's loose and fluid with the ability to get that area corrected. He lets coverage off the hook when he doesn't burst and separate like he's capable of, but he has access to plenty of juice when needed. While improvement should be expected, learning to play with better catch aggression and ball-tracking is not a given. Coulter is an explosive, high-upside talent with functional-starter upside, but a lower floor.” Dawson Knox (TE), age 27, 2.8% against cap, 6.425M cap hit (There is uber small savings with a post June 1st move) – In terms of the year I don’t want to frag him a bit losing his brother, and based on what seemed like lack of usage for most of the season by design or to help out in blocking. But then I looked at the numbers and he was right in line with what he did last year as well. 65 targets (71 last year), 48 catches (49 last year) 517 yards (587 last season) 6 tds (9 last year). So the numbers really don’t show what my eyes did that he was not used and nonexistent. Rating when targeted was 108.3, so next to Diggs was the second highest rated weapon when targeted. His catch rate at 73.8% was the highest in his career with only 4 drops which was the same number he had in 2021, 2020. 25 of his catches resulted in a 1st this was down 10 from the year before. Quintin Morris, age 24, 0.40% against cap, 870K cap hit (870K potential savings) – To be honest this is the one I am upset about the most. Wanted a second pass catching TE the 6’4 251 beat out both Sweeney and Howard in the offseason and then went MIA in the offensive design. Essentially after the Pittsburg game he was designed out of the offense which also coincided with the going to calling plays from a poor mans daboll design. Finished the season with 11 targets, 8 catches 84 yards 6 of those catches were for a First down, had a 72.7% drop rate and a rating of 124.8 when targeted. IMO if they actually use him more than what they have it will provide for more balance and better run blocking than going all wide all the time, also keeps the defense in their base set, but have 2 pass catchers to exploit those LBers and Safeties. I think he was grossly under used last year. Zach Davidson, age 25, 0.40% against cap, 870K cap hit (870K potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 5th round Draft pick of Vikings in 2021), Nice little developmental TE Prospect with the right size and speed. Not to mention excelled in TWO positions one TE and also as the Punter. He averaged 42.4 yards NET per punt in his college career. With a One overview of him in the draft “Gangly and ungainly, Davidson is an enigma as a one-year wonder with mega production seemingly coming from nowhere. He's a towering figure with slender body composition, offering a desired combination of speed and athleticism to work all three levels of the field with a natural advantage in the catch-radius department. While he has the tools to become a better route runner, he is in the developmental stage currently. The biggest concern is his lack of lower-body mass and lack of functional strength to offer up at least decent wall-off potential as an H-tight end or big slot. His potential as a pass catcher and his roster value as a backup punter could play into his chance of making the back-end of a roster or a practice squad.” Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, right now with no contract extensions being done in the league and no tags used. I don’t know if it is smart to go buy a WR in UFA, I think I would rather do that in the OL and address WR in the Draft. But I think we do need a true outside WR2. So those are some I will address here that I do like. WR DJ Chark, 26 years old – Has a lower catch rate (would rather target those WRs in the 70s) at 57.7% last year which is the second best he has posted in his career. But he is that side and speed outside WR. Posted a QB rating when targeted 101.6. So both those numbers in Det are in line with his Pro Bowl year in Jacksonville. I just don’t know if I want to drop 10M when I have the similar WR already on the roster in Gabe Davis at 1M. Michael Thomas, 30 years old. Here is an interesting one. Former elite NO1 WR for the Saints. But hasn’t really been healthy since the 2019 season. So this year would be 4 years removed from his Stud WR1 years. However his 2022 numbers he did post in the 3 games he played were right there in line with this WR1 years. I think I could be talked into this signing in a heart beat if it was able to be in the cards. The 3 years of Injuries do scare me, but that might make it something that is doable. To get a WR next to Diggs that gives a QB Rating of 134 when targeted high catch rate WR. He will hit the market on the void year and I don’t think Saints re-sign as he doesn’t fit their timeline and they are in cap hell anyway. JuJu Smith-Schuster, 26 years old – Was very productive as the second fiddle in KC with 78 catches 933 yards. Has a 77.2% catch rate and a QB Rating of 102.5 when targeted. He is a bit of a rat but we do need some attitude on the team I think. Likely will sign a 9 to 12M AAV contract so the numbers would fit there. Got others like Jakobi Meyers Allen Lazad Greg Dortch Darius Slayton Marvin Jones TE I will give you a list of what could likely fit money wise, however Scheme just no telling, Knox isn’t going anywhere and I shows that I think Morris will be more productive if actually used. So I don’t think we will be in the market of buying a TE. But here they are Evan Engram, 28 Dalton Schultz, 27 Robert Tonyan Jr., 29 Hayden Hurst, 29 Irv Smith, 24 – this one is interesting to me, there is some talent there, very athletic and highly touted in college. Will hit UFA as MIN moved on trading for Hockenson. Does have a over 70% catch rate coming off worst rating when targeted year at 88.0 but was 107.7 as a rookie and 14.4 the year after. Probably can be had for about 8M AAV Notable Draft Picks WR 1st round Jordan Addison, 6’0 175 USC Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 6’1, 200 Ohio State Quentin Johnston, 6-4, 215, TCU Kayshon Boutte, 6’0 205, LSU Josh Downs, 5’10 175 – NC – probably doesn’t fit the physical profile I am looking for in first round for Bills Jalin Hyatt 6’0, 185, Tenn 2nd Round Rashee Rice, 6’2, 206 SMU – if he times in sub 4.5 like I think he will put him in the late 1st and my No One TGT – Think DK Metcalf initially as a Rookie, and with proper development in route and zone nuances, he will make a team very happy. Parker Washington, 5’10, 207, PSU Cedric Tillman, 6’2, 215, Tenn TE 1st round Michael Mayer, 6’5”, 251, ND 2nd Round Luke Musgrave, 6’6” 254, Oregon ST Dalton Kincaid, 6’4” 242, Utah Sam Laporta, 6’4” 249, Iowa What I would do: I would Let all UFA walk. I can get that similar play cheaper in the draft and post draft when you are filling the team with role players. No reason to sign them now. I will not touch any of the contracts that are currently on the team right now, meaning no extension for Davis. I also do not think I want to go into UFA and pay for a WR either, that isn’t the model I want to do, unless there is a possibility to say get a Michael Thomas on a cheap prove it deal to show the league he is finally healthy. Make it a two year deal with a bigger second year that has guarantees that trigger based on his performance in 2023. Right now I am leaning toward double dipping in the draft at WR. 2 within the first 4 rounds, I don’t know who I would target in the later rounds yet as I have not gotten that far along in my draft prep. But I have a huge Target on Rashee Rice, and if he runs sub 4.5 I have no issue taking him with our first round pick either. I would look at a TE later in the draft probably as well, but I don’t have any names to give you yet. By going into the draft and getting the WR/TE the depth chart would look like this post draft. 1. Stefon Diggs 2. Gabe Davis (rookie contract) 3. Khalil Shakir (rookie Contract) 4. Rashee Rice (Rookie contract) 5. Isaiah McKenzie / 2nd Rookie Drafted 6. Then the battle for the 6th WR between (Johnson, Patmon, Coulter) And at TE I am looking like (which is fine for me, because we don’t use 2TE a lot 1. Dawson Knox 2. Quintin Morris (Rookie Deal) 3. Zach Davison (futures deal) Past Writeups: State of the Franchise (23 Jan) Offensive Line (23 Jan) 1 1 6 10 Quote
Dr. Who Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 When you get around to looking at TE, I suggest you think about Darnell Washington. He will be an exemplary blocking TE#2 with some catch ability. I've seen him mocked earlier, but if you can get him in the third round, I believe he would be a very nice add. Quote
MAJBobby Posted January 26, 2023 Author Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Dr. Who said: When you get around to looking at TE, I suggest you think about Darnell Washington. He will be an exemplary blocking TE#2 with some catch ability. I've seen him mocked earlier, but if you can get him in the third round, I believe he would be a very nice add. Will Do. I should be getting around to finalizing all my draft grades and such around the start of the league year. I do think a blocking TE is a hole with Knox (more all around) Morris (not great blocking) Davidson (athletic prospect that was really bad blocking in college). 1 Quote
buffalobillswin Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 I would love to get Jakobi Myers on this team. Really good short range target which this team desperately needs. 1 1 1 Quote
MAJBobby Posted January 26, 2023 Author Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, buffalobillswin said: I would love to get Jakobi Myers on this team. Really good short range target which this team desperately needs. I thought about it that is a 10-12M AAV contract. I dont think I would want to go there this year. I would rather get the young stud in the 1st with WR1 potential on a cost controlled rookie deal for 5 years. Then when he is time to get paid 99.99999% chance Diggs contract is off the books. Quote
Drew21PA Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 Idk why McKenzie is a lock for everyone - dude missed his opportunity see ya 4 Quote
MAJBobby Posted January 26, 2023 Author Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Drew21PA said: Idk why McKenzie is a lock for everyone - dude missed his opportunity see ya Numbers say otherwise. And where in my post did I say he is a lock. That production at that Cap hit is value, that is the reality. 3 Quote
Drew21PA Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 Not saying you said he was a lock but a lot on here seem to think he should be Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 47 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: OK here we are the second position group offseason primer. I went with the WR/TE group, because IMO the top two priorities this offseason should be the OL (first one) and WR/TE (this one). So what you will likely see is I will finish out the offense and then move over to the defense. Unlike the OL there will be more individual stats posted in my analysis here, because well position groups have a lot to work from. I know there will be many here that don’t agree with me and that is fine, but it Is my Opinion we had one of if not arguably the weakest WR/TE group out of all the playoff teams. That is something that will have to change, and to be honest the way to do that is only really have one that you buy and then an elite Stud on a Rookie Deal. That gives so much flexibility. The Bengals are the Bengals (probably the most complete team in the league) because majority of their studs are all on Rookie Deals. Watch what happens when Cheap Paul Brown has to start cutting those 100M contracts. The standard disclaimer: I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information. I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats. Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future. So here we go … Financials: Pretty Big Update here with the Futures Signings Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M Cap Space (top 51): -15.984M (one thing on this and I should have put it in one of the earlier writeups as well. OTC shows that the Bills can get up to 55M in space with just simple restructures and 76.6M in space on Max restructure capability. WRs – 7 players on contact taking up 12.30% of CAP, 17th highest in the NFL. TEs - players on contact taking up 3.59% of CAP, 19th highest in the NFL. WR is a one player top heavy group with Stef Diggs taking Up 20.26M in cap on a position group all 7 players account for a 27.88M cap hit as a hole. So I think the Bills are set up a bit correctly here with one paid In his prime and small and rookie contracts filling out the group. So the theory with this set up would be your next Rookie Contract player should make a choice, it he a WR1? If the answer is yes you can then look to flip your aging WR1 that is on the Big Cap hit as you sign your younger player to their Big cap hit. However I do not see the Bills in that position at all. As the next best WR (Gabe Davis) is arguably not even a WR2, going into his final year of his rookie deal. RFA WRs / TE None UFA WRs / TE Cole Beasley (WR) – 34 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – Nothing to see here as was a PS player elevated every game late in the Season. – First thing I will say is this is really telling of the status of the Bills WR groups that you have to sign two retirees late in the season gearing up for your playoff run. Not much here to really talk about due to the limited amount of games. But I have NO desire to bring Beasley back on this team, there is no juice left to squeeze there, Unless he is willing to accept the league Min here for him which is just over 1M I do not want him on the team taking snaps away from Shakir or my new rookies. It is time to turn the page here. John Brown (WR) – 33 years old, Cap It in 2022 – Nothing to see here just like Beasley – This is a mirror image as above, just turn the page there is nothing left in this turnip. Move on, would not be worth the Vet Min IMO, at least I could maybe get convinced of a vet min on Beasley. Turn the Page from the 2019/2020 Bills already. Jamison Crowder (WR) – 30 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.98M, The story of the lost year. I think he was on pace for solidifying the slot early in the season then went down with Injury (actually likely predictable giving his recent INJ problems in NY). When he went down in Baltimore I do think that is when you saw the “growth of the Dorsey offense” stop and the Bills went back to a poor man’s Daboll type offense. That said I think the lost year cost him his roster spot in the future with the Bills, so I let him walk. Jake Kumerow (WR) – 31 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 895K – And the final member of the over 30 listless WR crowd I bring you Jake Kumerow. I have nothing more to say here than Move on. Tommy Sweeney (TE) – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 654K – Nothing to say here, has been given EVERY opportunity to make a name for himself and failed. Moving on from him as Morris has passed him on the depth chart. On Contract Stefon Diggs age 30, 8.94% of cap, 20.256M cap hit (There is a slight savings with a Post June 1 Cut, better savings with a post June 1 trade) – OK I had to put the savings information here, but next year Diggs isn’t going anywhere, his true first out is after the 2024 season. Now that said there is a simple restructure opportunity here with a 7.9M base, I personally would not go into his contract for money if possible. Because starting in 2024 his base numbers are (18.5, 18, 19, 14.4). As he gets older I am less and less inclined with touching his contract and kicking that can down the road. However that being said Diggs SHOULD age rather gracefully as a WR, because of his route running ability and how he takes care of his body on the field. One can argue Diggs is coming off his best year as a Buffalo Bill. Which is very encouraging as he ages. 154 targets (best year 166 – 20), Rec 108 (best yr 127 – 20), yards 1429 (best year 1525 – 20), Yards per Rec 13.2 (Best as a Bill), TDs 11 (Best as a Bill) 70.1% catch % (Best year 76.5% - 20), Yards per Target 9.3 (best as a Bill). All Pro Second Team, Pro Bowl. In 3 years in Buffalo Stef already met or exceeded the 5 years of his career in Minny. Some advanced numbers: Total Air Yards before catch 1010 (2020 was 1071 and 2021 was 899), which points to him running a bit deeper routes this year. He had 419 yards after catch this year which was an increase to his 326 last year. He did have 8 drops this year (2020 he had 8 as well) which is the most he has logged in a year. But had a career best of 120.3 rating when passes went his way. The numbers show that he was the best producing (outside of Allen) on Offense which we all already know. However what is encouraging here is that there is no significant drop off with Diggs, so that helps me believe he will age well and this contract will not be an issue in the future even if we do a restructure here this year or next year. Gabriel Davis age 24, 0.52% of cap, 1.18M cap hit (1.01M in savings) – Final year of his Rookie Deal. I am not touching this contract. He was in position to earn that extension this offseason, I don’t personally think he earned that contract extension yet. I would have him play out his rookie deal and address it in the next offseason. In terms of his numbers as the Full time No2 last year you would hope to see real growth and it isn’t just there for the increase of looks he got. Gabe had 93 targets (this is a 30 target increase over his past years), 48 catches (13 catch increase), 836 yards (300 yard increase, this was the biggest increase he had), 17.4 yards per reception this was in line with his rookie year and an increase of 1.7 yards per over last year). 7 TDs is right in line with where he was in first two years with 30 less targets. 51.6% catch rate, this is a decrease (meaning more incomplete when targeted) than he had last year, to be honest this has decreased EVERY year, (56.5% rookie year, 55.6% in 2021, 51.6% last year) he had 9 drops this year and a massive 20 point drop in rating when targeted from 103.2 (100.1 rookie year) to a 80.8 rating when targeted this past year. So even with the increase in targets there was minimal to no improvement in all the other stats, and in some areas is a regression in some KEY areas. This is why I think I am just letting him play out his contract this upcoming year. He still only really runs 5 routes and IMO regressed this year even becoming a more prominent target eater. Isaiah McKenzie, age 29, 1.11 % against cap, 2.52M cap hit (2.225M savings) – I know many here will want him gone, and I probably would get there too. He can be released anytime this offseason and realize those savings. The big thing there is no triggered guarantees somewhere in this contract. Lets get in the numbers. Targets 65 (career Best), 42 receptions (career best), 27 first downs (Career Best), Catch % 64.6% (best year was 88.2% in 2020), 4 TDs, 6 drops a 90.7 rating when targeted. Now lets look at Davis, when you have a massive increase in targets you would hope to see some career bests and you do see them with McKenzie. Also the Numbers say he was the second highest rating when targeted in WRs that had over the 60 Targets (2nd to Diggs) those numbers do not scream a problem to me. And If I get those numbers similar in 2023 at the Small cap hit of 2.52M that would be a value contract there. However I also think I can replace that production with a rookie as well so could get some cap savings with McKenzie being released, but to be honest there is progression here with increased usage compared to Gabe Regression with increased usage. Khalil Shakir age 23, 0.41% against cap, 956K cap hit (696K potential savings) – Seldom used Rookie (I just don’t get the reluctance to play rookies early on offense with this team) But on defense those rookies sure do start or log meaningful snaps early. I can go through from Allen (they didn’t want him to play his rookie year), Davis, Cook, Shakir, Hodgins, far to often I have noticed Rookies on Offense get shelved early. I thought he would be used A LOT more than he was, and when he did get used seemed to make plays. Anyway the numbers 20 targets, 10 receptions, 161 yards 50% catch rate and a 94.0 rating when targeted. Playoffs he saw much more usage with 7 targets 5 receptions 91 yards, 71.4% catch rate and a rating when targeted of 94.0. He as a Rookie had a above 90 rating when targeted. And this is why I don’t want to bring back any of the retirees to take targets from Him in the Future. Keesean Johnson, age 27, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (1.01M potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 6th round Draft pick of Cardinals in 2019), been on Cardinals, Eagles (PS) and Atlanta. Former Fresno State WR (followed DeVante Adams), He is a 6’1 201 with 4.6 timed speed. So, a Size player being brought into Camp. I don’t expect much here at already 27 and on his 4th team. Dezmon Patmon, age 25, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (1.01M potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 6th round Draft pick of Colts in 2020), Size, Speed Candidate. 6’4 225 with a timed 4.48 speed. Here is what one writeup on his draft said “Big pass-catcher with intriguing size but lacking the assertiveness to impose his will. Patmon suffers from an overall lack of suddenness to uncover on both the first and second levels and issues with focus drops is an additional concern since he'll see plenty of contested catches. He has decent buildup speed, body control and ball skills to compete for 50/50 balls, but he doesn't always play with "my-ball" attitude. He's big but limited and must play with better confidence and toughness to carve out a roster spot.” I think there is a chance he lands on the roster (unless we address WR in UFA and Draft, we just don’t have this type of player with Hodgins on Giants now). What is interesting here is out of the three Futures Deals he got 10k in guaranteed money, not groundbreaking by any means but Johnson was 6,500 and Coulter was 5,000. Isaiah Coulter, age 25, 0.41% against cap, 940K cap hit (940K potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 5th round Draft pick of Texans in 2020), what is interesting about this futures signing, is that it is a 2 year deal. He is also on contract in 2024 for 1.055M cap hit. He was a Raw Size Speed guy coming out of college, here is one writeup. “Raw but talented X receiver with NFL-caliber length, speed and athletic ability. He runs a limited route tree and doesn't show enough attention to detail in his route work, but he's loose and fluid with the ability to get that area corrected. He lets coverage off the hook when he doesn't burst and separate like he's capable of, but he has access to plenty of juice when needed. While improvement should be expected, learning to play with better catch aggression and ball-tracking is not a given. Coulter is an explosive, high-upside talent with functional-starter upside, but a lower floor.” Dawson Knox (TE), age 27, 2.8% against cap, 6.425M cap hit (There is uber small savings with a post June 1st move) – In terms of the year I don’t want to frag him a bit losing his brother, and based on what seemed like lack of usage for most of the season by design or to help out in blocking. But then I looked at the numbers and he was right in line with what he did last year as well. 65 targets (71 last year), 48 catches (49 last year) 517 yards (587 last season) 6 tds (9 last year). So the numbers really don’t show what my eyes did that he was not used and nonexistent. Rating when targeted was 108.3, so next to Diggs was the second highest rated weapon when targeted. His catch rate at 73.8% was the highest in his career with only 4 drops which was the same number he had in 2021, 2020. 25 of his catches resulted in a 1st this was down 10 from the year before. Quintin Morris, age 24, 0.40% against cap, 870K cap hit (870K potential savings) – To be honest this is the one I am upset about the most. Wanted a second pass catching TE the 6’4 251 beat out both Sweeney and Howard in the offseason and then went MIA in the offensive design. Essentially after the Pittsburg game he was designed out of the offense which also coincided with the going to calling plays from a poor mans daboll design. Finished the season with 11 targets, 8 catches 84 yards 6 of those catches were for a First down, had a 72.7% drop rate and a rating of 124.8 when targeted. IMO if they actually use him more than what they have it will provide for more balance and better run blocking than going all wide all the time, also keeps the defense in their base set, but have 2 pass catchers to exploit those LBers and Safeties. I think he was grossly under used last year. Zach Davidson, age 25, 0.40% against cap, 870K cap hit (870K potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 5th round Draft pick of Vikings in 2021), Nice little developmental TE Prospect with the right size and speed. Not to mention excelled in TWO positions one TE and also as the Punter. He averaged 42.4 yards NET per punt in his college career. With a One overview of him in the draft “Gangly and ungainly, Davidson is an enigma as a one-year wonder with mega production seemingly coming from nowhere. He's a towering figure with slender body composition, offering a desired combination of speed and athleticism to work all three levels of the field with a natural advantage in the catch-radius department. While he has the tools to become a better route runner, he is in the developmental stage currently. The biggest concern is his lack of lower-body mass and lack of functional strength to offer up at least decent wall-off potential as an H-tight end or big slot. His potential as a pass catcher and his roster value as a backup punter could play into his chance of making the back-end of a roster or a practice squad.” Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, right now with no contract extensions being done in the league and no tags used. I don’t know if it is smart to go buy a WR in UFA, I think I would rather do that in the OL and address WR in the Draft. But I think we do need a true outside WR2. So those are some I will address here that I do like. WR DJ Chark, 26 years old – Has a lower catch rate (would rather target those WRs in the 70s) at 57.7% last year which is the second best he has posted in his career. But he is that side and speed outside WR. Posted a QB rating when targeted 101.6. So both those numbers in Det are in line with his Pro Bowl year in Jacksonville. I just don’t know if I want to drop 10M when I have the similar WR already on the roster in Gabe Davis at 1M. Michael Thomas, 30 years old. Here is an interesting one. Former elite NO1 WR for the Saints. But hasn’t really been healthy since the 2019 season. So this year would be 4 years removed from his Stud WR1 years. However his 2022 numbers he did post in the 3 games he played were right there in line with this WR1 years. I think I could be talked into this signing in a heart beat if it was able to be in the cards. The 3 years of Injuries do scare me, but that might make it something that is doable. To get a WR next to Diggs that gives a QB Rating of 134 when targeted high catch rate WR. He will hit the market on the void year and I don’t think Saints re-sign as he doesn’t fit their timeline and they are in cap hell anyway. JuJu Smith-Schuster, 26 years old – Was very productive as the second fiddle in KC with 78 catches 933 yards. Has a 77.2% catch rate and a QB Rating of 102.5 when targeted. He is a bit of a rat but we do need some attitude on the team I think. Likely will sign a 9 to 12M AAV contract so the numbers would fit there. Got others like Jakobi Meyers Allen Lazad Greg Dortch Darius Slayton Marvin Jones TE I will give you a list of what could likely fit money wise, however Scheme just no telling, Knox isn’t going anywhere and I shows that I think Morris will be more productive if actually used. So I don’t think we will be in the market of buying a TE. But here they are Evan Engram, 28 Dalton Schultz, 27 Robert Tonyan Jr., 29 Hayden Hurst, 29 Irv Smith, 24 – this one is interesting to me, there is some talent there, very athletic and highly touted in college. Will hit UFA as MIN moved on trading for Hockenson. Does have a over 70% catch rate coming off worst rating when targeted year at 88.0 but was 107.7 as a rookie and 14.4 the year after. Probably can be had for about 8M AAV Notable Draft Picks WR 1st round Jordan Addison, 6’0 175 USC Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 6’1, 200 Ohio State Quentin Johnston, 6-4, 215, TCU Kayshon Boutte, 6’0 205, LSU Josh Downs, 5’10 175 – NC – probably doesn’t fit the physical profile I am looking for in first round for Bills Jalin Hyatt 6’0, 185, Tenn 2nd Round Rashee Rice, 6’2, 206 SMU – if he times in sub 4.5 like I think he will put him in the late 1st and my No One TGT – Think DK Metcalf initially as a Rookie, and with proper development in route and zone nuances, he will make a team very happy. Parker Washington, 5’10, 207, PSU Cedric Tillman, 6’2, 215, Tenn TE 1st round Michael Mayer, 6’5”, 251, ND 2nd Round Luke Musgrave, 6’6” 254, Oregon ST Dalton Kincaid, 6’4” 242, Utah Sam Laporta, 6’4” 249, Iowa What I would do: I would Let all UFA walk. I can get that similar play cheaper in the draft and post draft when you are filling the team with role players. No reason to sign them now. I will not touch any of the contracts that are currently on the team right now, meaning no extension for Davis. I also do not think I want to go into UFA and pay for a WR either, that isn’t the model I want to do, unless there is a possibility to say get a Michael Thomas on a cheap prove it deal to show the league he is finally healthy. Make it a two year deal with a bigger second year that has guarantees that trigger based on his performance in 2023. Right now I am leaning toward double dipping in the draft at WR. 2 within the first 4 rounds, I don’t know who I would target in the later rounds yet as I have not gotten that far along in my draft prep. But I have a huge Target on Rashee Rice, and if he runs sub 4.5 I have no issue taking him with our first round pick either. I would look at a TE later in the draft probably as well, but I don’t have any names to give you yet. By going into the draft and getting the WR/TE the depth chart would look like this post draft. 1. Stefon Diggs 2. Gabe Davis (rookie contract) 3. Khalil Shakir (rookie Contract) 4. Rashee Rice (Rookie contract) 5. Isaiah McKenzie / 2nd Rookie Drafted 6. Then the battle for the 6th WR between (Johnson, Patmon, Coulter) And at TE I am looking like (which is fine for me, because we don’t use 2TE a lot 1. Dawson Knox 2. Quintin Morris (Rookie Deal) 3. Zach Davison (futures deal) Past Writeups: State of the Franchise (23 Jan) Offensive Line (23 Jan) Any thoughts on trades? Quote
khlax3 Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 Here are some middle round WR take take a look at that give a nice blend of speed and size if you double dip in the draft: WR A.T Perry 6-5 210lbs (wake Forest) 4.56 40 time projected round 3 WR Cedric Tillman 6-3 215lbs (Tennessee) 4.52 40 time projected round 2 WR Andrei Iosivas 6-3 200lbs (Princeton) 4.50 40 time projected round 3-4 WR Elijah Higgins 6-3 235 (Stanford) 4.55 40 time projected round 3-5 WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper 6’ 173 (Fresno) 4.45 40 time projected round 4-6 WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton 6-3 224 (WVU) 4.48 40 time projected round 5-7 Quote
RyanC883 Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 Hyatt with one year of production scares me in the first. Would love to trade back, get him and Patterson at C/G in 2nd. Then grab a WR in 3rd. RB is deep, so that in the 4th. Really want BPA (even if DL—vomit), Bean targeting positions has not worked out well. Quote
MAJBobby Posted January 26, 2023 Author Posted January 26, 2023 43 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: Any thoughts on trades? I tend not to play in trade ideas that is a rabbit hole you can go on and on with I think I will do RB group next, wrap up offense with QB and head to defense. Will try to get the RB one done before the weekend. Quote
Solomon Grundy Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 @MAJBobby, Zay Flowers isn’t on your radar? He seems to have that get the ball in his hands and watch him go type. 1 Quote
MAJBobby Posted January 26, 2023 Author Posted January 26, 2023 52 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: @MAJBobby, Zay Flowers isn’t on your radar? He seems to have that get the ball in his hands and watch him go type. He is. My initial round grade is 3/4. So when writing this i only went with my initial grades that I have on the guys. I also have slot only??? Next to him. My intent this draft was to grab outside guys because this team is loaded with Slots. When I dig into the draft heavily in about a couple weeks he likely will move into the second. But my initial grading kind of pointed to a thin top end of WRS in this class with the value being rounds 3-4 3 Quote
BuffaninSarasota Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 7 hours ago, Dr. Who said: When you get around to looking at TE, I suggest you think about Darnell Washington. He will be an exemplary blocking TE#2 with some catch ability. I've seen him mocked earlier, but if you can get him in the third round, I believe he would be a very nice add. There is no way Washington will be available in the third. He's been mocked by everyone in the first round and it's warranted. He's essentially an extra OL who can get loose after the catch and has even more upside as a pro. He played second fiddle to Brock Bowers, the best TE in NCAA FB. 1 Quote
Dr. Who Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said: There is no way Washington will be available in the third. He's been mocked by everyone in the first round and it's warranted. He's essentially an extra OL who can get loose after the catch and has even more upside as a pro. He played second fiddle to Brock Bowers, the best TE in NCAA FB. Yes, I suspect you are right. There isn't likely to be a worthy olineman that fits our scheme and merits a late first. There are some wrs that are arguably worth a shot there. Honestly, I would think about taking Washington if he's availabe at our pick in the first. Washington and a day two wr/ol may be better overall than other options on offense. He would materially impact the oline and offense overall more than I suspect folks imagine a TE #2 would make. All that said, they will probably take a safety and I will scream at the tv. 1 Quote
LyndonvilleBill Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 Love these writeups. Keep them coming! REALLY, REALLY like Rice. As to later rounds I like Rakim Jarrett (5th maybe?) and probably a late round (6-7?) TE Zack Kuntz. 2 Quote
ghostwriter Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 I wonder if we could trade McKenzie to the Giants for a mid round pick? I do wonder if Daboll would be interested. 1 Quote
Milanos Milano Posted January 26, 2023 Posted January 26, 2023 7 hours ago, RyanC883 said: Hyatt with one year of production scares me in the first. Would love to trade back, get him and Patterson at C/G in 2nd. Then grab a WR in 3rd. RB is deep, so that in the 4th. Really want BPA (even if DL—vomit), Bean targeting positions has not worked out well. You shouldn’t be afraid. Hyatt with his 1,000 yards+ production and speed (sub 4.4) in the SEC puts him in rare company. Only SEC receivers to do that are Jameson Williams, Elijah Moore, Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr. , and Julio Jones. 2 Quote
Motorin' Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 8 hours ago, buffalobillswin said: I would love to get Jakobi Myers on this team. Really good short range target which this team desperately needs. He's a good receiver on short and intermediate routes. Can play inside and out. I think Josh would do for him what he did for Jon Brown and Cole Beasley when they were first signed, elevate his play resulting in the best performance of his career. He's a potential 1,000 yard reciever in this offense and a #2 posession wr. Also makes us better while weakening our divisional opponent. 1 Quote
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