Bills Coaching Staff Changes Thread

[Coach Tuesday]

12 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

If you want I can breakdown every single one of those plays for you and show you how the scheme isn't what screwed us on those examples they showed.

I want

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I want

 

First play is a simple Curl/Flat concept that turns into a scramble drill once Burrow leaves the pocket. We're running a fire zone pinching our strongside defensive end and bringing Taron off the edge. With the fire zone we're playing what I call Bronco coverage behind it. Milano and Marlowe are responsible for the Hot of 2 (second receiver in from the sideline on that respective side of the field) until something crosses their face and pulls them to the flat and playing 3 deep over top. Poyer busted the coverage biting on Burrows eyes instead of working his read progression of 3, 2, 1 strongside before checking backside. Chase is initially running a slant trying to influence Edmunds and open up the Curl window, but once he sees Burrow leave the pocket it turns into scramble drill and he just works to green grass. Scheme was fine - execution was awful.

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I want

 

Second play we're playing split coverage - Quarters to the strongside and Man on the backside. Bengals motion from 2x2 to 3x1 with back set to the trips (treat it like Quads) which pulls Edmunds out of the box. Because of this there should now be a gap exchange between Edmunds and Rousseau meaning Rousseau is now playing the strongside A gap through the heel line of the offense and Edmunds is now our QB player for any read scheme. The Bengals run Dart (pull the strongside tackle to wrap up to a second level defender). Both Edmunds and Rousseau sit on the QB read which is why there was no one inside of Taron when he leveraged (fit outside and force the ball back inside) the puller.

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I want

 

Play three - the stalk and go. Pre-snap we are disguising this look at 3. Erik claims we're in Quarters coverage, but based on the route concepts there's really no way he could know if it was 2 or Quarters unless he was told by one of the players. Lets cover both scenarios.

 

If it is Quarters coverage the Safeties responsibility in Quarters coverage is 2 to 1. So pre-snap eyes will be backfield to 2. As soon as Poyer see's 2 work out towards the corner his eyes will immediately shift to 1 - if 1 is coming inside (like he does on this tunnel path) he plays all of 1 (man on 1 essentially - so he should be driving downhill). The Corner in Quarters is also playing 2 to 1 meaning if 2 is vertical then he needs to continue to push vertical in his drop. 2 runs directly at Trey so he should be gaining depth in order to play over top of the stalk and go. If we were playing Quarters coverage here Trey was in the wrong and blew the coverage.

 

If it is Cover 2 the Safeties responsibilities are still 2 to 1 but the rules change since it's no longer a pattern match. Poyer should be over top of everything in this coverage. When 2 goes out his eyes should shift to 1 to see if they're running any type of quick switch at the LoS, but he should be getting depth in the drop to stay overtop of any vertical routes. Trey should be reading QBs eyes first for quick game - he will jump any quick game to the flat in Cover 2. If he bites on a pump (like he does here), he will then regather and work a trail technique on the vertical from #2. If we were playing Cover 2 here Poyer was in the wrong and blew the coverage.

 

Again, based on the route concepts it's difficult to tell whether we were in Quarters or Two, but based on how Tremaine played the back out I'm inclined to think Erik is correct that we were in Quarters and Trey blew the coverage.

[HoofHearted]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I want

The last two plays I don't have time to diagram, but the 3rd and 4 looked like we we're trying to disguise a Rat concept with Tremaine mugging and dropping out late underneath into a slant window. On the initial broadcast I thought we were just playing sticks alignment and playing catch technique at the sticks, but we clearly were not. There's no other explanation for us to be playing those alignments in that coverage unless we were suppose to drop someone out.

 

The final play was the third and long where we brought pressure and ran Bronco coverage behind it again. Jaquan Johnson is the Hot 2 player until something crosses his face (which it did, but he kept carrying). He should have let the seam of 2 go because Milano (the final 3 player) replaces him as 3 releases out to the flat. Another coverage bust by a Safety.

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, Mango said:

Bruce Arians said he’d still be coaching if Brady didn’t come out of retirement.

 

If I’m Terry I call him with my checkbook open and ask what it would take to be OC. 

 

I'm glad you're not Terry.

 

Seriously.  Arians philosophically is like the opposite of what the Bills need for Josh Allen.  Google search and read up on some of the stuff that was discussed when Brady joined the Bucs, and how Brady had to get Arians to change his offense. 

[Beck Water]

17 hours ago, DrPJax said:

It is true.  Broken down expertly by Eric on cover1’s YouTube video about “ you are what your last game says you are” , or close to that. It’s a fantastic breakdown of the literal defensive breakdown of the Cincy game.  It’s the strongest , most well documented expert analysis of how badly this team was out schemed in that game on both sides of the ball , but it really makes the best case for Frazier’s dismissal I have seen. And it’s fact based, not just vitriol seeking to lay blame.     Very worth your time to watch to fully understand how that debacle happened , yet the clues were already present in prior games.  Really shows how bad the defensive coaching failure was across the board.   
       I guess they let go of the safeties coach because they have no safeties left ti coach , and in mcds new vision they will just have epenesa lose weight again to be converted to strong saftey as mc Beane now realize with the cap they can’t keep rotating 10 dl’s as they attempt to get under the cap.

      Also as the corners are now playing at least 8 yards beyond the first down marker , they are really safeties in theory and Edmunds & Milano will now cover the boundaries as well in this latest version of cloud coverage which will give up any / all running plays to be sure they are never beaten with the deep ball.  Rbs fro opposing teams will eventually come in contact with the deeply dropped soft zone coverage , and it’s hoped by that time the Rb’s will be winded so that the tackling of those dbs now may actually improve.  This will help the stat about yards gained after contact ; since the rbs will already have gained all the yardage required for moving the chains , will be winded from sprinting untouched , our dbs should get them down immediately on contact so they will lead the league in least yards allowed after contact !
 

          It is just one sample of the forward thinking this staff is capable of given the reality we have zero cap space and an extreme excess of DL to draw from !   So , yes , firing the safeties coach makes so much sense! 😉👍

 

Just a little comment that you need to take Cover1 with a grain of salt.  I truly value them - I don't subscribe but I watch their stuff and find value.  You're absolutely correct that they try to be fact-based and don't suffer from vitriol.  But they're mistaken sometimes. 

 

A lot of the Cover1 guys, including Erik, are essentially what some of the members are here - guys who played football in HS, sometimes college, whose goal is to share their X's and O's knowledge with the fans.  Recently he has been bringing in guys who have journalist backgrounds vs. former players, meaning they're what even more of the members are here, passionate fans who are self-taught about X's and O's.  At core, they're very knowledgeable fans who put effort and time into their avocation, but not professionals or true experts.

 

They're always worth watching and listening to IMO, but sometimes they're right, sometimes they're "homer", and sometimes they follow a narrative (as all these podcast/youtube guys who depend on clicks and follows to keep sponsors and make money must do). 

 

And, as noted above, sometimes they're mistaken.

 

As far as safeties, Micah Hyde is under contract and medically cleared.  I personally think Damar will be back.  McDermott mentioned that converting Christian Benford from DB to safety is a consideration.  I think we'll find safeties. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

It's actually pretty amusing watching their film breakdown because schematically we are sound to everything they did. It was just failure to execute from a player standpoint, and this is where I think we are with Erik and Cover 1. He used to do a better job, but now that he's got some players ears it seems like he's so afraid to put blame on players and instead consistently puts everything on the staff and the scheme.

 

Part of it is I think a shift in who Erik has breaking down film with him.  They used to be almost exclusively former players in HS and college whose knowledge of scheme and plays went bone deep, now it's more journalism interns and stats guys. 

 

And he's monetized, meaning he depends upon number of clicks and views to keep them and pay his guys.  Right now coverage that blames players would go over like the proverbial "Led Zeppelin" with their viewers.

 

JMO of course.  And thank you for the breakdowns.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, The Red King said:

 

Same.  That was scummy.

 

If they think just firing the safties coach will fix things (or even pacify the fans) they are tone deaf and sorely mistaken.

 

The LAST thing the Bills FO and coaches should be worrying about right now is "pacifying the fans"

 

They're essentially conducting an accident investigation. 

 

There's likely to be "plenty of blame to go around", but they need to try to sort out the causal from the ancillary factors.  Then they need to decide which can be changed by keeping the same personnel but changing their approach, and which require new people.

 

I think the frustrated fans would like to see the Pegulas "burn it down" and bring in new people, but that's not a necessarily a proven strategy to go from "good to great".    Sometimes it works - an example might be Doug Pederson exiting the playoffs with Div and WC wins after their SB.  After the next year, the Eagles brought in Sirianni, returned to the playoffs, and are going to the NFC championship game.  Or, the Vikings, replacing Zimmer with O'Connell after two years of losing seasons and at least returning to the playoffs - even if they did get whupped in the WC round.

 

But other times it's a disaster, like Denver deciding to move on from Kubiak when their SB run was followed by a disappointing 9-7 season - only to cycle through 3 different HC and 6 losing seasons since then.  Or the Chicago Bears, who moved on from Lovie Smith after a Conference Championship loss was followed by an 8-8 and 10-6 season, both without playoffs.  10 seasons since then, 4 head coaches, only 1 winning season, 2 WC losses.

 

Note, I am not arguing here for or against keeping our FO and coaches.  I'm arguing against change for the sake of change, or to "pacify the fans".

 

[Beck Water]

There's a feature in the Olean Times Herald by long-time sportswriter Chuck Pollack

https://www.oleantimesherald.com/sports/evidently-bills-picked-salgado-to-be-scapegoat/article_43488b31-baa6-524f-b181-40297053fa69.html

 

I'm not sure Salgado is a scapegoat, per se.  I don't think guys like Hyde and Poyer take much coaching, but more knowledgeable heads than mine have pointed out that when the backups came in, their lack of scheme knowledge was evident.  Moreover, McDermott really trusts Hyde, and if Hyde gave his feedback in his exit interview that the coaching wasn't up to par this season (Salgado's 1st year as safeties coach), McDermott would likely weight that heavily.

 

So far, it's the only change we've heard of.  I respect McDermott and Beane for taking their time and evaluating thoroughly this week and the next before making their moves.  I also do believe that McDermott prefers the "low ripple" approach of having guys "pursue new opportunities" elsewhere vs. firing them.

 

But...if we go into a new season with that as our only change on the coaching side of the ball, will anyone else be disappointed? 

 

I'm not an "off with their heads" type, but the more I think about it, the more I do feel we need change.  Yeah, I know we went into the Bengals game with two starters on the DL out and two more playing injured.  But against 3 backup OL on the Bengals, it really does stick in my craw that the DL played so poorly, especially considering that they had 3 former 1st round picks (Rousseau, Lawson, Oliver) and 3 former 2nd round picks (Epenesa, Basham, Jordan Phillilps) on the field.  All but one of them was drafted by the Bills albeit Lawson a year before this group took over - still, that's a lot of draft investment

 

On the OL side, we have 3 former 2nd round picks (Dawkins, Saffold, Morse), a 3rd round pick (Brown), and an UDFA, and none of them were on injury report.  There's less draft resources invested, but that's still a fair bit of resources to play like dogcrap.

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

But...if we go into a new season with that as our only change on the coaching side of the ball, will anyone else be disappointed? 

 

I'm not an "off with their heads" type, but the more I think about it, the more I do feel we need change.  Yeah, I know we went into the Bengals game with two starters on the DL out and two more playing injured.  But against 3 backup OL on the Bengals, it really does stick in my craw that the DL played so poorly, especially considering that they had 3 former 1st round picks (Rousseau, Lawson, Oliver) and 3 former 2nd round picks (Epenesa, Basham, Jordan Phillilps) on the field.  All but one of them was drafted by the Bills albeit Lawson a year before this group took over - still, that's a lot of draft investment

 

On the OL side, we have 3 former 2nd round picks (Dawkins, Saffold, Morse), a 3rd round pick (Brown), and an UDFA, and none of them were on injury report.  There's less draft resources invested, but that's still a fair bit of resources to play like dogcrap.

Yes, for the reasons you well articulated below that question. This year was the one to prove that 13 seconds was a fluke or a mistake by one player (Wallace). It didnt turn out this way. Cant keep trying the same D schemes and coaches hoping for a different result. 

[AuntieEm]

On 1/26/2023 at 11:22 AM, GoBills808 said:

I saw some interesting analysis on the Hurst TD

 

Burrow used a hand signal that we though we stole from their NE game which meant tunnel screen to Chase

 

They had switched it against us so everyone bit on the Chase fake screen

 

   So they played chess we played checkers.

 

 

[Chaos]

6 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

 

   So they played chess we played checkers.

 

 

Our coaching staff look like rookies much of the time. 

[Beck Water]