Should we trade Ed Oliver?

[In Summary]

Iff:

• he is not identified as one of the core players that you MUST have to win a Super Bowl, and
• his projected performance is not expected to meet his market value, and
• you can get a draft pick that allows you to get a player of the same value as a DT who doesn't get to the QB, is good against the run, but is otherwise undersized, then

Yes.   

 

Why might this not happen?  Beane/McDermott's loyalty to "their" players. 

[John from Riverside]

28 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I tend to agree.

Oliver, Settle and Jones are all on their last year.  It's a tough situation that Beane is in.

If Oliver thinks he is getting big money due to his draft status I think he is mistaken.

Spotrac has his value at $10M and I think that's too high.

If I am extending somebody, it’s definitely Jones

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

If I am extending somebody, it’s definitely Jones

 

Except he will be 32 by the end of next season. The smart move on Jones is let him play out next year. If his performance is maintained you see if you can find a way to work a 1 year deal out. But committing more cash now to a guy at that position, at that age, is not smart. 

 

If you want to extend one of our DTs it absolutely HAS to be Ed Oliver. Despite repeated attempts to re-make that department it is still in flux and he is still their best long term bet. 

[ghostwriter]

24 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I tend to agree.

Oliver, Settle and Jones are all on their last year.  It's a tough situation that Beane is in.

If Oliver thinks he is getting big money due to his draft status I think he is mistaken.

Spotrac has his value at $10M and I think that's too high.

Oliver is most likely looking at a prove it deal wherever he goes, but there is a chance that he does become an above average starter if it clicks for him. He may need a change of scene and the right defensive scheme but it’s very possible.

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

If I am extending somebody, it’s definitely Jones

I don’t think Jordan Phillips or Tim Settle are trash either, I would extend both of them if we can. Phillips was hurt all year, I’d gamble on him for $4M-$5M a year.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Oliver is most likely looking at a prove it deal wherever he goes, but there is a chance that he does become an above average starter if it clicks for him. He may need a change of scene and the right defensive scheme but it’s very possible.

 

 

He is already an above average starter. If it clicks for Ed he is potentially an elite player. I'm open on him. I am definitely open to extending him, but if they can find a way to use him as a piece to upgrade the oline they absolutely need to investigate that. 

[Chicken Boo]

On 1/25/2023 at 8:51 PM, Donuts and Doritos said:

If they get a call to trade for a good WR2 (ie: Pittman or comparable) they should listen.

 

Even better.  Pittman is easily a WR1 with Josh as his QB.

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Why might this not happen?  Beane/McDermott's loyalty to "their" players. 

 

Yes, they are, but they also are loyal to the Pegula's and the long-term team goals.

Part of me thinks this year could be a "reset" with the team.  Not just with players but with their own schemes and beliefs.

 

@Victory Formationhad a post earlier that may be one of those options.

There are a whole lot of FAs and even RFAs that may be walking this year.  The makeup of the team could be a lot different.

 

I can envision a plan that addresses a lot of these issues and maybe Oliver will just be something they wait until next year to deal with.

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except he will be 32 by the end of next season. The smart move on Jones is let him play out next year. If his performance is maintained you see if you can find a way to work a 1 year deal out. But committing more cash now to a guy at that position, at that age, is not smart. 

 

If you want to extend one of our DTs it absolutely HAS to be Ed Oliver. Despite repeated attempts to re-make that department it is still in flux and he is still their best long term bet. 

 

Wow, I forgot he is that old.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Oliver for Jake Matthews straight up. Atlanta uses the cap savings to pay their two young expiring contracts on the Oline, and Oliver is an instant upgrade on defense and let a lineman in his early 30s on a big cap number move on. The Bills have leverage to re-work Matthews' deal because there is no more guaranteed money and he, having played on sucks Falcons teams for the last few years gets to play for a contender. 

 

I like this. I'm against trading Oliver for a draft pick because it's a bad draft class and it would just create another hole that we'd have to pay to fill. Maybe it saves us $5 million at the end? Not worth it to cast away a high upside player. But if you use the trade to fill a hole on the OL, that is sensible, especially since it seems to me that the chances of extending Oliver beyond this season are very low.

[ghostwriter]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is already an above average starter. If it clicks for Ed he is potentially an elite player. I'm open on him. I am definitely open to extending him, but if they can find a way to use him as a piece to upgrade the oline they absolutely need to investigate that. 

If I could use one word to describe Ed Oliver it would be streaky. Occasionally you’ll see him with a nice bull rush or doing a great job absorbing double teams in run defense, but too often does he disappear. He lacks the consistency required to be considered a great DT. Like you said though, if his production becomes more steady, he has elite potential, there’s no question about that but I would not pay him big money at this point. If we could get a 2nd for Ed I think I’d take it, if not, let him play out his final year, if he elevates his game, franchise him and work out a long term deal, but I am more than ok with Jones, Settle and Phillips as our base DT rotation if we somehow are able to move Ed for picks.

[billsfan89]

I loved Ed coming out of the draft and he has been a solid player. But he hasn't been dynamic which is what you want from a player drafted in the top 10. If Ed is demanding an extension and his demands are unreasonable to his level of production I would look into trading him. If you can get a 3rd round pick in 2023 and a 5th in 2024 I would strongly consider taking it. If Ed is willing to play out his 5th-year option and hit the market I keep him and get a comp pick. If he wants an extension that's reasonable I sign him. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I can’t see Beane letting go of both Edmunds and Oliver.

 

I think if Edmunds is walking they will extend Oliver.

 

 

That is the exact opposite of what they should do.  I'm still hoping they can keep Tremaine as the lazt expensive defense investment as he is good, young, and was drafted and developed here. Sign cheap players to patch up the rest of the defense, somehow trade Oliver to at least get something.  Oliver is not bringing higher than a 4th with his play and 11m contract.  Can't see a team looking at him and agreeing to a 2nd or 3rd plus taking on that contract.  Use draft picks and a few vets for security to fix the offense

Edited March 9, 2023 by Gunsgoodtime

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

If I could use one word to describe Ed Oliver it would be streaky. Occasionally you’ll see him with a nice bull rush or doing a great job absorbing double teams in run defense, but too often does he disappear. He lacks the consistency required to be considered a great DT. Like you said though, if his production becomes more steady, he has elite potential, there’s no question about that but I would not pay him big money at this point. If we could get a 2nd for Ed I think I’d take it, if not, let him play out his final year, if he elevates his game, franchise him and work out a long term deal, but I am more than ok with Jones, Settle and Phillips as our base DT rotation if we somehow are able to move Ed for picks.

 

Ed has been inconsistent, sure. But in 2022 when he was not hurt he was dominant. That stretch he had between his two injuries he was borderline unblockable. That stretch - Vikings, Brown, Lions - in particular man oh man he was fantastic. His play dipped at the end of the year but he was playing very heavily strapped. 

 

I just feel like Ed Oliver's best football is still ahead of him. And he is certainly the best DT on the Bills. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ed has been inconsistent, sure. But in 2022 when he was not hurt he was dominant. That stretch he had between his two injuries he was borderline unblockable. That stretch - Vikings, Brown, Lions - in particular man oh man he was fantastic. His play dipped at the end of the year but he was playing very heavily strapped. 

 

I just feel like Ed Oliver's best football is still ahead of him. And he is certainly the best DT on the Bills. 

I don’t think he’s better than Jones.

[BuffaloRebound]

No downside to shopping him.  Give him some extra motivation to have a breakout year.  I’d probably want at least a 2nd rounder for him or a good player in return.  So most likely he returns knowing he’s gotta ball out.  

[colin]

miller, daquan, and possibly groot being out hurt out d more than oliver was out.

 

pass on extending him.

[ndirish1978]

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

 

I saw that last night. 

[TheFunPolice]

maybe some of the rumors about serious locker room issues were true...

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

40 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

My guess is the Bills sent him an extension that was low.

[SCBills]

What exactly does he believe warrants “showing him the money”?