Should we trade Ed Oliver?

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Utah John said:

The nail in the coffin for Oliver for me, was that he completely disappeared against three backups on the Bengals' O line.  The Bills big advantage in that game was supposed to be that we could disrupt the Bengals' offense because of their O line injuries, and it turned out to be the opposite.

 

Wanna bet that KC's D line finds a way to beat that Bengals O line?

His pectoral injury really affected late in the season. He was not healthy. 

7 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Well...I'm not going under the assumption that the Bills will trade Oliver because I seriously doubt they will. But depending on the return I would absolutely consider it. Like I said previously I'm not going to assume anything because teams do dumb things all the time. The Bears gave up a 2nd round pick for Chase Claypool...You just never know. Are you saying regardless of the package offered, an Oliver trade would be completely off the table? 

 

The book on Oliver has played out pretty much exactly the way he was scouted. Undersized, great physical traits, etc...But at the end of the day we are looking at a DT who is expected to bring Pass Rush consistency, and he has 21 QB pressures and 16.5 sacks in 70 games played including the Playoffs. He's averaged 2.5 total tackles in those games. That's good stats for a 0/1-tech. But a 3-tech in a Defense that is greatly reliant on pressure from rushing only 4, it's not great. I fully understand a lot of those games came when he was not getting much help from others. And he's had some injuries. But that does not explain everything. The Bills need more from that position.

 

Normally I would say replacing Oliver would not result in better results given his pedigree. But the number don't lie. His closest stat comparisons league wide are Dalvin Tomlinson, B.J. Hill, and D.J. Jones...A 2nd, 3rd, and 6th Round pick.  Which admittedly would lend credence to the "no one will trade for him" argument. But it would also lend credence to the "see what you can get for him" argument as well. 

 

I'm just saying I would absolutely see if one team out there is willing to give the Bills a deal they can't refuse. They can use that Cap space. I would feel 100% different if I was convinced Oliver will have a breakout 2023...I'm not...

 

Here's what Spotrac says about dead cap in an Oliver trade...

 

I hear you about the numbers, but then I read @GunnerBill arguing that Oliver was hands down the Bills' best d-lineman in 2021 and really good in the first three quarters of this season. I just think that he has talent and will be playing for his fortune next season. I think he'll give us more than any fourth rounder we get. Next year is still a SB window for the Bills, after all. No one is going to give up a third rounder for him. 

 

Also, it seems to me that the crazy trades seem to happen in-season, when borderline teams with high expectations become a little desperate. I know that wasn't the Bears, but I also felt like they believed they needed to show their fanbase that their highly drafted QB could look like an NFL qb once he had a cast of real receivers. 

[SCBills]

11 minutes ago, Utah John said:

The nail in the coffin for Oliver for me, was that he completely disappeared against three backups on the Bengals' O line.  The Bills big advantage in that game was supposed to be that we could disrupt the Bengals' offense because of their O line injuries, and it turned out to be the opposite.

 

Wanna bet that KC's D line finds a way to beat that Bengals O line?

 

If they do... huge indictment.  

 

KC's DL isn't much to write home about.  It's basically the Bills DL (post-Von), without the rotational depth, but they have Chris Jones.  Chris Jones... the guy we drafted Ed Oliver in the Top 10 to be. 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by SCBills

[skibum]

I don't know where everyone got off saying he would be the next Aaron Donald, just because they're about the same size. Kind of like when Aaron Maybin was supposed to grow into the next Jevon Kearse. Some guys are just freaks of nature. I don't think Ed is one of them. 

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, Floridagatorsbuffalobills said:

Anyone else think Ed Oliver could be on the trading block this off-season? I can see it happening. I think McDermott and Beane know Oliver has underperformed and want to get bigger upfront. 

They did not give him a ringing endorsement yesterday in the PC.

 

He’s listed at 6’1 287, and I think the defense needs that 6’2 320lb DT in the middle of the defense. 

I think they know there is going to be a lot of expectations next year and have to get agressive with their FA’s and draft picks and maybe getting rid of 1-2 players that haven’t played to the level they want. 

 

I’m not sure what his trade value is, probably a 3rd or 4th rounder? He has hasn’t been terrible, just think he’s not a fit as a 1 tech taking on double teams.

I just think we have to make 1-2 trades this year to make the jump our fan base and front office knows has to be made. The Rams did it two years ago, the Eagles did it this year, the 49ers did it this year, it’s time to trade draft picks for proven players. 

 

Imagine what AJ Brown would have done for our offense like it did to Philly’s this year.

 

Just a note that Oliver is not a 1 tech and has only been asked by the Bills to be a 1T on a rotational basis, when Lotulelei opted out in 2020 and Harrison Phillips/Vernon Butler weren't getting it done and the story was "play 1TDT for a few snaps and we'll reward you with some 3TDT snaps"

 

Oliver has a big cap hit and is on the last year of his deal, but here's the thing - one almost always has to overpay for FA, and I don't see it as a great thing to trade Oliver and then leave a gap we need to fill with a higher draft pick or by overpaying a FA. 

 

The reason I feel that way is that I believe we're way past due to start putting some Draft Pick Respect and FA investment in the offensive skill players and the OL.

 

Now if someone would offer to trade us a WR like AJ Brown for Ed Oliver and a draft pick, I put a bow around Oliver and send him off.

 

9 minutes ago, skibum said:

I don't know where everyone got off saying he would be the next Aaron Donald, just because they're about the same size. Kind of like when Aaron Maybin was supposed to grow into the next Jevon Kearse. Some guys are just freaks of nature. I don't think Ed is one of them. 

 

I think Ed Oliver is very physically talented.  I don't think he came into the league believing he needed to learn and listen, and I think his motivation is kind of spotty.  He really wants to spend his life 4-wheeling and riding horses and doing other Texas Country Boy stuff.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[KOKBILLS]

30 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

If they do... huge indictment.  

 

KC's DL isn't much to write home about.  It's basically the Bills DL (post-Von), without the rotational depth, but they have Chris Jones.  Chris Jones... the guy we drafted Ed Oliver in the Top 10 to be. 

 

 

Well...If anyone want to bore themselves to death they could go back and look at my posts from that 2016 Draft. They would see that I LOVED Chis Jones for the Bills. He was probably my favorite prospect from that entire Draft. The Bills took Shaq Lawson at #19 instead. I liked Lawson too, but I did not put him even remotely in Jones category as a prospect overall.

 

When you look at the Oliver pick too it stands out to me because all of Beane's other picks in the 1st Round are Height, Weight, athletic ability-outliers. Rousseau is a huge DE...Elam is a big CB...And of course Josh and Edmunds are freaks at their positions.

 

This is what happens when you miss on premium Draft picks...There is a domino effect...If we Draft Jones over Lawson maybe we're a little light at DE (though Jones rushes off the edge some), but there's no need for Oliver in 2019. So we could have had say...Jones and DK Metcalf instead? Oh well... 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by KOKBILLS

[C.Biscuit97]

Man, he showed flashes but has never been consistent enough. But you aren’t getting much for hkm. Maybe a 4th and that seems high.

[BullBuchanan]

Absolutely. He'll be gone after next season and is unlikely to provide consistent value after 4 up and down years. Time to move on from this failed Aaron Donald 0.125 experiment.

[wppete]

49 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Tyler Bass should be off-limits too.  Now that we have a dependable kicker, and a young one at that, we should keep him right where he is.

Agree, forgot about TBass. He’s off limits. 
 

Josh on Offense

Milano on Defense

TBass on special teams.

 

everyone else is available for the right price. 

[Sestak4ever]

Players obviously need to perform to expectations, but I also wonder if any of their under performing is due to how the coaching staff uses them and the schemes they are used in? I guess that’s a question Beane and McDermott need to answer.

[LanderPoke]

15 hours ago, ßookie_tech said:

likes the smaller, penetrating types. 

That's what she said!

[KOKBILLS]

54 minutes ago, skibum said:

I don't know where everyone got off saying he would be the next Aaron Donald, just because they're about the same size. Kind of like when Aaron Maybin was supposed to grow into the next Jevon Kearse. Some guys are just freaks of nature. I don't think Ed is one of them. 

 

Exactly. It also can't be ignored that even if the Bills were hell bent on getting a DT in 2019, they chose Oliver over Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence who have both been better NFL players so far in the their careers. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Exactly. It also can't be ignored that even if the Bills were hell bent on getting a DT in 2019, they chose Oliver over Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence who have both been better NFL players so far in the their careers. 

Even bigger whiff: not grabbing Brian Burns. He's the best d-lineman out of that draft. 

[BillsShredder83]

16 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Yes.  Espenesa too, for whatever you can get.  I would listen to offers on Basham too, although I imagine it would be pretty quiet on all 3 of their calls.  Time to shift the wasted DL picks onto the offense.  If you can get a 7th for that lb you took in the 3rd last year you take it.  

This is stupid and things bad teams do. He was drafted high, knowing he would redshirt. Let him get a NFL weightroom offseason in. We drafted him knowing he wasnt big enough. Clearly he was above and beyond on an athletic and cerebral level. We didnt draft an undersized, dumb, unathletic guy lol ridiculous

[JerseyBills]

Oliver is too inconsistent and just not an X factor for a top 10 pick. He's a nice role player

 

I remember Q Williams and him were being compared as top picks and they compared Oliver to Aaron Donald 🤣

Q became a great , game changing DT and Oliver isn't even close. 

He's a bust imo. Nice chess piece if you have that luxury but I don't think Buf has that luxury anymore 

25 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Even bigger whiff: not grabbing Brian Burns. He's the best d-lineman out of that draft. 

Q Williams is. 

Dude is a game changer 

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Oliver is too inconsistent and just not an X factor for a top 10 pick. He's a nice role player

 

I remember Q Williams and him were being compared as top picks and they compared Oliver to Aaron Donald 🤣

Q became a great , game changing DT and Oliver isn't even close. 

He's a bust imo. Nice chess piece if you have that luxury but I don't think Buf has that luxury anymore 

Q Williams is. 

Dude is a game changer 

Good point; I meant among people who were available. I will say that for me, Williams vs Burns represents a toss-up. Burns is REALLY good; it's just that he's on a subpar team that is also very boring. Who watches Carolina games beyond their fans? 

 

But yeah, Williams is excellent.

Edited January 26, 2023 by dave mcbride

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Even bigger whiff: not grabbing Brian Burns. He's the best d-lineman out of that draft. 

Could have taken Josh Jacobs and Metcalf in that draft instead of Oliver and Ford.  Sigh. 

[KOKBILLS]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Good point; I meant among people who were available. I will say that for me, Williams vs Burns represents a toss-up. Burns is REALLY good; it's just that he's on a subpar team that is also very boring. Who watches Carolina games beyond their fans? 

 

But yeah, Williams is excellent.

 

Oh for sure, Burns is a heck of a player...I've lived down here in NC for 30 years now. All my immediate family are Carolina fans...That kid is very good. I agree that despite the positional difference, I would not separate those 2 much. 

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Good point; I meant among people who were available. I will say that for me, Williams vs Burns represents a toss-up. Burns is REALLY good; it's just that he's on a subpar team that is also very boring. Who watches Carolina games beyond their fans? 

 

But yeah, Williams is excellent.

He's a concern for me in the division going forward.  He was dominant in both games where we had an overall superior team and almost single handedly wrecked our offense.  The Jets scare me more than any team in the division. They got a phenomenal D and some really good pieces on O with some cap space and a capable GM. If they have another phenomenal draft , the sky is the limit even with questions at QB

Edited January 26, 2023 by JerseyBills

[Buffalo03]

Send a bag of rocks to the Jets for Quinnen Williams. Let's get that trophy

[KOKBILLS]

I know this is probably beating a dead horse at this point. But I was thinking about McD's comments after the Bengals game concerning both lines. He said you have to protect your QB, and disrupt the opposing QB...

 

In 70 total games in Buffalo Oliver has 16.5 sacks and a total of 47 QB hits according to Pro Football Reference. Sacks are not included in the QB hit stat, but because the QB hits the ground on that stat it's an excellent pressure stat. So that means Oliver's total of sacks and pressures where the QB hits the ground right after they throw is 63.5 in 70 games. Or less than 1 per game played (.907). By way of comparison, Quinnen Williams has 87.5 total (27.5 Sacks/60 QB hits) in 57 games.

 

I doubt McD is overly happy about that...