Should we trade Ed Oliver?

[ProcessTruster]

8 hours ago, Success said:

I'd be for it - but it would depend what we could get. I doubt we'd get much at all for Epenesa.

 

I don't know if there is a way to check this, but I felt like everyone played better when Miller was in there.  It seemed like they were all making big plays - does anyone else think that? I remember feeling like our line had really come together earlier in the season.

Great point,  I would keep Oliver for year 5 and see what we have when he plays next to Jones and Miller for 10 -12 games.  He was dominating when not being double teamed. 

 

 Go back and re watch any games where Jones and Miller are also on the field.   He is not a nose tackle ... we saw that when Star was out.   He's a fast quick 3 tech who needs to be 1 on 1 to be effective.   He'll light it up next year in a contract year and with Von and DaQuan hopefully on the field, he should have a good/great season.   Let's get a great season out of him and try to get another SB run going next year.     No rebuilding when you still have another year to get out of the guy.   Draft his replacement #1 next year or grab a FA.   

 

Von Miller, Groot and DaQuan are the keys to this D Line, not Ed Oliver.   But we can get one great contract year out of him and be better for it as a team for next years run.   

Kind of like Poyer... play out their contracts and replace them when its time.   Why do you think Poyer was going all out to be on the field this year?  Team loyalty?   B-llSh-t.   He was playing for his last NFL contract from whoever will give it to him.   Oliver will do the same.   

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

No team would trade for him without signing him to an extension. I would imagine that's a given. Unless you can't restructure off the 5th year? Is that a rule?

There are no rules against a player and their team collectively deciding to replace the fifth year option contract. Baker Mayfield did it last off-season to facilitate his trade to Carolina. 

1 hour ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

i rather just cut him and sign daron payne.

Except you can’t cut him. His contract is fully guaranteed. And Payne will be $20M/year+. If this team drops that kind of cap space on another defensive player they don’t deserve to win. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by BarleyNY

[QCity]

If Oliver is moved it would be the most fascinating transaction of the offseason IMO.  If he went somewhere else and became an inside force (i.e. ~10 sack season) it would be a huge indictment of the coaching staff. Ditching an All-Pro guard in Teller was a massive failure at all levels and Juan Castillo had to be the fall guy for that. If Oliver is jettisoned and immediately dominates for another team there is no manifesting a fall guy -- it would be blatant dysfunction from the top on display.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by QCity

[BillsFan2313]

9 hours ago, ßookie_tech said:

I like Ed but I think we need to get bigger on the interior. I want 2 DT's 330+.  But I think McD likes the smaller, penetrating types. 

 

Then he shouldn't play a base nickel defense 

[IndyMark]

I have been super critical of Ed and it is somewhat comforting, in this thread, to see the "defense" of Ed be tempered from prior conversations.  In the past the descriptors of: (a) Elite (b) Big and (c) he knocks the piss out of opponents were consistently used and I think we can all agree those were and are overstatements.

 

Similarly, I think we are all in agreement that he needs the perfect situation to excel, and that being (a) a big nasty 1DT next to him (b) a healthy elite Edge rusher (c) him being blocked 1:1 and (d) him being lined up over an OL whom is not elite.  To me at least, that reinforces that he is not in the category of Allen, Diggs, or Milano on how critical he is for the Bills to succeed. In fact, I imagine Brandin Bryant could perform as well as Ed if all of the above were in play.  To some degree what professional DT could not?

 

This stated, I am coming to terms with the reality he will be on the Bills next season. What gives me a glimmer of hope is that Beane spoke quite differently of him versus Singletary when it comes to how they view their future with the team and how they appreciate, respectively, those players. And at that, if we could trade him for a comparable OL (in 5th year, drafted high, had potential, is just not expressing it in current situation) Beane should do it ASAP.  I would honestly consider trading him for a 6th, or 5th, or if Beane could get to a 3rd he is a true WIZARD. 

 

The bottom line, Ed seems like a super good dude, but his rate limiting factor cannot be "coached up" or "schemed around"; in fact here are the Eagles DT's:

 

DT          6-4         310

DT          6-6         336

DT          6-2         305

DT          6-4         328

DT          6-4         307

DT          6-3         290

 

And Ed  =   DT  6' 1"   287 lbs

 

He just does not fit, anthropometrically speaking, into what we need our DT's to do.  Funnily enough, as I expressed this in a prior thread a poster argued that Ed was similarly sized as Aaron Donald.  Not sure they realize that is not the flex they thought it was.  And proves that some people truly do not know what they are looking at.

 

If fully healthy with the aforementioned situation, is Ed a serviceable DT for the Bills? Sure.  Yet, with what we just witnessed, I am not sure serviceable is what we should be striving for, you know that growth mindset and all.  Beane and McD need to be better and do better in shoring up the lines.  Both OFF and DEF.

 

PS- if we trade Ed and he goes all Wyatt Teller on us?  Good on him. Really. I would be thrilled for Ed. Yet, him getting 10 sacks from the interior DT position?  Whew, that is quite the speculation.

[Low Positive]

2 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

i rather just cut him and sign daron payne.

10 million in dead cap if you do that.

[dave mcbride]

10 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

No team would trade for him without signing him to an extension. I would imagine that's a given. Unless you can't restructure off the 5th year? Is that a rule?

There are no rules against it, but bear in mind that any team which does something like that is going to have to give him an even BETTER deal to get to a new deal. The thing is, the $11 million is fully guaranteed, and his agent isn’t going to take anything that isn’t as good as that on a per year basis. If the deal offered is worse on a per annum basis, the agent will rightfully tell the player to play the season out and bet on himself. 
 

He has been truly elite in some games over the past two years, and I believe that the pectoral injury he suffered really hampered his game down the stretch this year. When he was healthy, he was blowing up a lot of plays. The Bills don’t beat Detroit without him.

2 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

i rather just cut him and sign daron payne.

Given that the money is guaranteed, you’re willing to have the Tim Settles and Mike Loves of the world over Oliver? Because that’s what it boils down too. You’re paying Oliver regardless.

Edited January 26, 2023 by dave mcbride

[bobobonators]

Oliver had a stretch this season where he looked good. I think many of us thought he turned the corner. Then injuries hit. I think ultimately that’s what really kept him down this season.  
 

We arent going to get much at all for him. He could have a career year next season as he’ll be paying for a contract.  Safest thing to do is keep him imo. 

[SCBills]

Yes.  I don’t even care if we get a 7th back.  Just get his cap hit off this team. 

[IndyMark]

3 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

Oliver had a stretch this season where he looked good. I think many of us thought he turned the corner. Then injuries hit. I think ultimately that’s what really kept him down this season.  
 

We arent going to get much at all for him. He could have a career year next season as he’ll be paying for a contract.  Safest thing to do is keep him imo. 

 

I agree we would not get much for him, but I would take draft capital for him, no question.  Yet, I wonder if we take the approach of doing the safest thing, if that is the best route?

 

The safest thing we could do is keep Leslie Frazier.  As they saying goes, "it is better to work with the devil you know versus the devil you do not know".

 

Personally, I prefer not to keep Frazier.  But it would be the safe thing to do.

[bobobonators]

2 minutes ago, IndyMark said:

 

I agree we would not get much for him, but I would take draft capital for him, no question.  Yet, I wonder if we take the approach of doing the safest thing, if that is the best route?

 

The safest thing we could do is keep Leslie Frazier.  As they saying goes, "it is better to work with the devil you know versus the devil you do not know".

 

Personally, I prefer not to keep Frazier.  But it would be the safe thing to do.

I do not want to keep Frazier. Likelihood of Oliver having his best season next year is probably pretty good. We see it all the time. Thats what I meant by safe. 
 

Plus I’d love to see what a new DC could do with Oliver. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by bobobonators

[IndyMark]

2 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

I do not want to keep Frazier. Likelihood of Oliver having his best season next year is probably pretty good. We see it all the time. Thats what I meant by safe. 
 

Plus I’d love to see what a new DC could do with Oliver. 

 

Fair.  Yet, Ed is not someone one builds around or an opponent schemes around.  A new DC would be focused on Groot and Miller, then maybe Jones.  I do not understand how a DC would do anything with Oliver.  He should not be the focus of the DEF.  Groot, Milano, Miller....even Edmunds those are the disruptors and play makers. Ed is just not built to disrupt anything.

[RG Murdock]

He's worth more to the Bills at this point. Most posters here think he'd fetch a 5th or 6th rounder at best. That would be like throwing him in the trash. This is his contract year, as Beane stated - "There's still some of meat on the bone with him". It's worth seeing if he's right. Keep him, the upside is still their.  

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, RG Murdock said:

He's worth more to the Bills at this point. Most posters here think he'd fetch a 5th or 6th rounder at best. That would be like throwing him in the trash. This is his contract year, as Beane stated - "There's still some of meat on the bone with him". It's worth seeing if he's right. Keep him, the upside is still their.  

 

If he's not in this team's future plans, there is zero reason to have him on this team next year.

 

The investment on this team needs to shift towards the Offensive side of the ball.  We have a DT eating up 11M of cap space.  That could bring in a top tier IOL to protect Allen.  

 

If they re-sign Edmunds AND keep Oliver, this team is doing such a disservice to Josh after what we witnessed last Sunday.. and for most of the year honestly. 

 

I'm legitimately resenting McDermott for the fact he's a Defensive HC yet still needs so much above average investment on that side of the ball... it should be the opposite.  

[BADOLBILZ]

 

They are f*cked with regard to their heavy investment in Oliver paying any dividends beyond 2023.

 

I was hoping he would have a good season so they could trade him for a late 2nd or 3rd round pick.

 

They might have to eat part of his salary(via signing bonus) to get a 4th after the season he just had.

 

The upside is the same as it was with Edmunds coming into 2023.........maybe he has a breakout year while playing for a contract.

 

Edmunds didn't reach his full potential by any means but he did notably improve.........maybe Ed will go full "walk year" and have the best season of his career.

[Utah John]

14 hours ago, wppete said:

I think everyone should be on the trading block except for Josh Allen and Matt Milano. They rest should be available for trade. 

Tyler Bass should be off-limits too.  Now that we have a dependable kicker, and a young one at that, we should keep him right where he is.

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

They are f*cked with regard to their heavy investment in Oliver paying any dividends beyond 2023.

 

I was hoping he would have a good season so they could trade him for a late 2nd or 3rd round pick.

 

They might have to eat part of his salary(via signing bonus) to get a 4th after the season he just had.

 

The upside is the same as it was with Edmunds coming into 2023.........maybe he has a breakout year while playing for a contract.

 

Edmunds didn't reach his full potential by any means but he did notably improve.........maybe Ed will go full "walk year" and have the best season of his career.

Trading him for a fourth just isn't worth it - he's at least as good as a late second/early 3rd round vet DT who met draft expectations. He is a disappointment, but he will at least give at least 3-4 high impact games a year when healthy. The Tim Settles of the world aren't going to give you that. Plus he does have the ability to beat his man in mano y mano situations given his quicks. They made their bed and need to lie in it, hoping he plays for that big contract that secures his retirement years next season.

[KOKBILLS]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

There are no rules against it, but bear in mind that any team which does something like that is going to have to give him an even BETTER deal to get to a new deal. The thing is, the $11 million is fully guaranteed, and his agent isn’t going to take anything that isn’t as good as that on a per year basis. If the deal offered is worse on a per annum basis, the agent will rightfully tell the player to play the season out and bet on himself. 
 

He has been truly elite in some games over the past two years, and I believe that the pectoral injury he suffered really hampered his game down the stretch this year. When he was healthy, he was blowing up a lot of plays. The Bills don’t beat Detroit without him.

Given that the money is guaranteed, you’re willing to have the Tim Settles and Mike Loves of the world over Oliver? Because that’s what it boils down too. You’re paying Oliver regardless

 

Well...I'm not going under the assumption that the Bills will trade Oliver because I seriously doubt they will. But depending on the return I would absolutely consider it. Like I said previously I'm not going to assume anything because teams do dumb things all the time. The Bears gave up a 2nd round pick for Chase Claypool...You just never know. Are you saying regardless of the package offered, an Oliver trade would be completely off the table? 

 

The book on Oliver has played out pretty much exactly the way he was scouted. Undersized, great physical traits, etc...But at the end of the day we are looking at a DT who is expected to bring Pass Rush consistency, and he has 21 QB pressures and 16.5 sacks in 70 games played including the Playoffs. He's averaged 2.5 total tackles in those games. That's good stats for a 0/1-tech. But a 3-tech in a Defense that is greatly reliant on pressure from rushing only 4, it's not great. I fully understand a lot of those games came when he was not getting much help from others. And he's had some injuries. But that does not explain everything. The Bills need more from that position.

 

Normally I would say replacing Oliver would not result in better results given his pedigree. But the number don't lie. His closest stat comparisons league wide are Dalvin Tomlinson, B.J. Hill, and D.J. Jones...A 2nd, 3rd, and 6th Round pick.  Which admittedly would lend credence to the "no one will trade for him" argument. But it would also lend credence to the "see what you can get for him" argument as well. 

 

I'm just saying I would absolutely see if one team out there is willing to give the Bills a deal they can't refuse. They can use that Cap space. I would feel 100% different if I was convinced Oliver will have a breakout 2023...I'm not...

 

Here's what Spotrac says about dead cap in an Oliver trade...

 

[Utah John]

The nail in the coffin for Oliver for me, was that he completely disappeared against three backups on the Bengals' O line.  The Bills big advantage in that game was supposed to be that we could disrupt the Bengals' offense because of their O line injuries, and it turned out to be the opposite.

 

Wanna bet that KC's D line finds a way to beat that Bengals O line?

[hemma]

Take what you can get.  

Beane got Beaned on that pick.