You're Beane. Give me your offseason moves as best you can at this point.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, Gregg said:

Given our cap situation I think improvement will come mostly thru the draft. I don't expect the Bills to be players in FA this year. At least no big-time signings that move the needle. I would focus on the OL if I were Beane. The Bills need to do a much better job in pass protection and running the ball.  A better stronger OL will help do that. Hopefully they get tougher as well. It was embarrassing watching the Bengals physically dominate on both sides of the ball. Von coming back should help the DL but we need to upgrade the OL. 

Why? They had the same cap issues last year and Beane said the same nonsense. Then he signed Miller, Saffold and a bunch of other guys. There is plenty of moves he can do to be active in FA.

[BearNorth]

Oliver is the sixth ranked DT from his draft class.  People forget that Quinnen was considered a "bust" until Saleh started coaching him up. 

 

That being said, $10MM per year or up is a lot of dinero for the second best DT on your team, pay Oliver that and Jones, who was sorely missed vs. Cinci will probably saying Me Too.

[damj]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So you don't think Oliver is worth $10mil??  If so why would some other team take on that contract?  Either the Bills or another team are on the hook for the $10 mil, unless he's given a long term deal that would have to make sense for him to agree to.  Else he'd decline play out his option and then team stuck with $10 mil salary.

Over the last few years, we have invested heavily on the D-Line and it's not paying off, meanwhile the lack for talent on O-Line and WR has continued to suffer. They need to change their approach to D and in that change, I say get rid of Oliver and use the cap room elsewhere

 

[DapperCam]

Defense:

- Don’t bring back Frazier. Look for somebody better or at least different.

- Let Poyer walk unless he’s coming back at an absolute bargain.

- Benford to safety

- Let Edmunds walk (depending on input from new DC and scheme)

- Sign vet UFA MLB that is cheaper than Edmunds. Think of D. Jones and T. Settle caliber signings last year.

^ We’ve already reduced the cap dedicated to defense here to be much more reasonable
 

Offense:

- Draft WR and G/C in the first three rounds of the draft

- Insist that Dorsey develop a short passing/screen game

- Maybe bring Crowder back if they liked him in the little bit of time he had before he got hurt. Otherwise look for a reliable vet slot WR on a good deal.

- If they can manage the cap, look for a middle of the road vet right tackle. 

 

Special Teams:

- Maybe ditch some of the higher cap specialists like Taiwan Jones

- Bring back Martin

 

If we can replace our worst players with okay ones (Saffold, Spencer Brown, WR2, slot WR, Jaquan Johnson, Hamlin, Marlowe) we have a chance to really improve if we can tweak some things in coaching.

[Charles Romes]

Draft only high ceiling guys. Bring in only high ceiling younger free agents. Bring Von back slowly, Play all the rookies and high ceiling free agents and have Josh lead you to 9-10 wins, then be road warriors in the post season, with the highest talent developed as much as possible. . 

[Nephilim17]

1. Let Edmunds walk and use that $16 to $18 million on two or three quality FAs (see MAJBobby's post on this):

2. Draft a wide receiver with elite measurables and good hands (very good speed/size/hands or elite speed/hands) in the first three rounds.
3. Draft 2 more O-Lineman in the first three rounds.
4. Sign/draft (after pick 4)  a 220 lb+ running back with decent wheels who can get hard yards running north south and in short yardage.
5. Sign a lower-priced FA or draft (rounds 5 to 7) an MLB; this is NOT a position of need when our O-line is in shambles and Josh has one guy to consistently rely on in the passing game).

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

1. I would reduce the Salary Cap committed to defense from the highest in the league to the league average. This probably means letting Edmunds walk among other things that the real Beane won't likely do.  I would expect a committment from my Defensive Minded head coach and DC that with an average budget, they can deliver an NFL average defense, like the Chiefs or Bengals do.  If they can't deliver that committment I would start a coaching search. 
2. I would spend committ all available draft and salary cap growth to the offensive line.  100%.  I am not saying I would draft seven offensive linement.  I am saying I would use the 7 draft picks to trade to get the best two or three linemen I could possibly get. 
3. I would not worry about additional offensive skill players.  Diggs, Cook, Hines, (Singletary if affordable), Shakir, Knox and Davis are good enough, if we improve the line to top tier. 

Josh Allen with time is a brilliant passer, one of the best in the league. Given even an average amount of time in the pocket, Allen would elevate the production of all of the skill players we already have.  

 

On a separate track, I would consider what is an odd track for OC.  I would tell Dorsey I am opening up the position, and that Dorsey remains a candidate, but he has to provide a plan on why he is the best person to be the OC.  And I would interview others to see if I can improve that postion.   Presumably Dorsey, will have a better answer than "Obviously I will be better in year 2 than year 1".    Every player has to compete for his job every year. I don't think it is that odd to make Dorsey compete for his position. 

 

Bengals were 6th in total defense and Chiefs were 8th in total defense, that is not league average that is top 10.

[KOKBILLS]

6 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Any potential trades you'd like to see? A FA you're really wanting? Do you have a favorite draft target? Who do you resign? Who do you let walk?

The OL has needed an upgrading for a while and now as much as ever. The Bengals were getting pressure with just 3 guys. Allen needs better skill players. We really need a more balanced offense and I'd love a big back.

I want an absolute beast on that OL and 3-Tech. I'd trade Oliver for draft capital.

Also, how much did lingering injuries contribute to that disasterous performance last Sunday?

 

Your approach?

 

 

 

 

Jalin Hyatt...

[Ghs24mike]

Ok- this is really going to hurt, (no way Beane does it because it’s core guys)  but here is my idea. 
 

We are at a crossroads and big time moves have to be made.

 

- Find a way to trade Tre White for at least a third (Benford playing as well as he did makes this a very tough but doable decision) 

 

- Same with Ed Oliver try to trade him - too much money for too little production. A DL with Rousseau, Von, Jordan Phillips, Daquan Jones, Tim Settle is something we can work with 

 

- Let Poyer walk unfortunately (love him but too much to re-sign) 

 

- Morse is the toughest call. Lots of concussions, but he is very good when he’s healthy. Can we re-structure? 

 

- Singletary walks, we rock with Cook and Hines next year 

 

- Re- sign Edmunds to a solid back loaded deal. Dude is continuing to improve. We will regret it big time letting him go. 
 

- Bring in Hopkins if you can restructure the contract to give him 3 years and lower the cap. (Only works if Tre and Oliver are both gone) 
 

Draft

 

- Rd 1 (trade up with picks acquired from trades) top OL or Safety Prospect ( McD defense relies on really good secondary play) 

 

-  Rd 2 Best OL prospect if we went safety in the first round

 

-Rd 2 again due to trade up - OL 

 

- Later Rds - Best WR with speed for opposite Diggs, Best corner option for depth since we move on from Tre 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Why? They had the same cap issues last year and Beane said the same nonsense. Then he signed Miller, Saffold and a bunch of other guys. There is plenty of moves he can do to be active in FA.

Yes, they will be able to make moves. This is just a GM not wanting to box himself in while speaking with the media. Contracts will be reworked etc. Also sort of adds to his legend if he says not much can be done then pulls something out of his hat in March. 

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Ghs24mike said:

Ok- this is really going to hurt, (no way Beane does it because it’s core guys)  but here is my idea. 
 

We are at a crossroads and big time moves have to be made.

 

- Find a way to trade Tre White for at least a third (Benford playing as well as he did makes this a very tough but doable decision) 

 

- Same with Ed Oliver try to trade him - too much money for too little production. A DL with Rousseau, Von, Jordan Phillips, Daquan Jones, Tim Settle is something we can work with 

 

- Let Poyer walk unfortunately (love him but too much to re-sign) 

 

- Morse is the toughest call. Lots of concussions, but he is very good when he’s healthy. Can we re-structure? 

 

- Singletary walks, we rock with Cook and Hines next year 

 

- Re- sign Edmunds to a solid back loaded deal. Dude is continuing to improve. We will regret it big time letting him go. 
 

- Bring in Hopkins if you can restructure the contract to give him 3 years and lower the cap. (Only works if Tre and Oliver are both gone) 
 

Draft

 

- Rd 1 (trade up with picks acquired from trades) top OL or Safety Prospect ( McD defense relies on really good secondary play) 

 

-  Rd 2 Best OL prospect if we went safety in the first round

 

-Rd 2 again due to trade up - OL 

 

- Later Rds - Best WR with speed for opposite Diggs, Best corner option for depth since we move on from Tre 

Before suggesting trades, you have to go check out the dead cap. For instance, trading Tre before 6/1 would only create around $350,000 of cap space. After 6/1. it would create a little under 10 million in 2023 but it would create a huge dead cap hit in 2024. There is a reason that NFL teams usually trade guys in the final years of their contracts.

[Scott7975]

offense offense offense.  Fix the damn O line.  Stop coddling rookies and put them on the field to learn.  Kromer is one of the best in the business. Get him some good players and let him teach.  Dorsey implement a real offense.  Not this supposed complex crap that nobody can learn unless they sit on the sidelines for 5 years first.  Give them some routes to run.  Add in a real running game.  Not one that is just there to say we ran the football a couple times.  Learn how to flow on offense, Daboll had this problem too, and mix it up.  Make the defense guess instead of knowing by formation and personel what we are doing.  If I can call out a run play or a pass play and be right 90% of the time from TV then Im sure DC's and players always know what you are doing.  Run more play action.  Josh is money on play action.  Dont sit in shot gun all game long every game.  Formulate actual game plans that can exploit the team you are facing.  If the team is terrible against the run but stout in coverage then I dont want to see 12 carries and 40 bombs downfield.

 

Live with what we have on defense.  IDGAF about defense anymore.  We have two defensive head coaches.  Make it work with the players we have.  Tre should be better next year and was a former all pro.  I dont believe Tre is done just because he had a non all pro season this year.  Von will be back at some point.  Elam is a good young corner.  Hyde will be back. Enough of this 200 man D line rotation.  The same goes for the corner rotation we had all year.  Identify your best corners and leave them out there.  Nobody is going to develop if they are constantly put in and out of the game all game every week.  Put your best guys on the damn field.  The experiment failed.  Maybe some of these rookies would have developed better if they werent taken off the field every other snap.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Scott7975

[GreggTX]

This is in response to many posts. We have a lot of 'B' players and not enough 'A+' players. I'm talking about Oliver, Basham, Edmunds and such. We have to replace Poyer and Edmunds with less expensive guys. We need to replace Oliver with a serious disruptor. The OL needs 3 upgrades IMO -- Big nasty guys like Richie that will toss you like a rag doll if your footwork is subpar. I can live with a more physical, less expensive MLB. I am OK with pairing an average S with Hyde to free up cap space to sign 2 or 3 big name FA's. I'm even OK with taking the best RB in the draft. We will lose some quality depth, but it is clear that you just have to have about 6 guys that are making game changing plays on the regular even if you have to replace some 'B' players with 'C' players to pay them all. We have to start dominating in the trenches and be able to pound the ball. If Josh leads this team in rushing next year, I will consider that a failure. No more just showing a few runs. Make this a 2-way offense. Again, we need a big back too. Josh Allen and a 1,000 yard RB would get us where we need to go. Not only that, but Josh led the NFL in turnovers because we only ran well on a few occasions. That gave defenses an advantage and made pass protection harder. We need the element of surprise.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, damj said:

Over the last few years, we have invested heavily on the D-Line and it's not paying off, meanwhile the lack for talent on O-Line and WR has continued to suffer. They need to change their approach to D and in that change, I say get rid of Oliver and use the cap room elsewhere

 

 

But you can't cut him.  The only option is to trade him and the team trading has to be willing to either pay him $10 mil in 2023 or work out long term deal.  And if I'm Oliver I wouldn't take anything that's not going to give me more money long term and still be good deal for 2023 too.  Otherwise I can just play for the $10 mil guaranteed. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Why? They had the same cap issues last year and Beane said the same nonsense. Then he signed Miller, Saffold and a bunch of other guys. There is plenty of moves he can do to be active in FA.

 

Because they are 15 mil over the cap and have 24 players to sign just to get a full roster.  They arent going to restructure the entire team just to sign one big name FA.

[transplantbillsfan]

Restructure player contracts to add some freedom in the salary cap. Josh Allen's contract to free up 20+ million so at the very least do that.

 

Bills UFAs to resign (in order of importance)

 

Tremaine Edmunds

Sam Martin

Jordan Phillips

Shaq Lawson

Ike Boettger

Bobby Hart

David Quessenberry

Dean Marlowe

 

Bills UFAs to let walk

Jordan Poyer

Jamison Crowder

Jaquan Johnson

Taiwan Jones

Case Keenum

A.J. Klein

Jake Kumerow

Tyler Matakevich

Justin Murray

Rodger Saffold

Devin Singletary

Tommy Sweeney

Greg Van Roten

 

Bills RFAs to resign

Tyrel Dodson

Dane Jackson

 

Bills RFAs to let walk

Cam Lewis

 

Notable Bills position shift

Christian Benford to Safety as the starter next to Hyde in 2023

 

Positions to target via FA/trade (Hard to pinpoint names but I'll try with some... obviously it'll be a mixture of FA & draft)

Tight End (Gesicki and Engram would be nice if we could spend, but a young guy with untapped potential like Irv Smith might be what we see.  Won't be surprised if Hayden Hurst ends up a Buffalo Bill considering we love going after guys who torch us)

Wide Receiver (DJ Chark on the high end.  JuJu on the mid level. DeMarcus Robinson on the low end)

OL (not familiar enough with all the players... but this is one we need to go after in both FA & the draft and any OL position please.)

 

Draft positions to target on Day 1 &  2(in order of importance... but these are all positions we MUST draft)

Guard/Center (preferably someone with that position flexibility)

Wide Receiver

Safety

Running Back

 

Other positions to target through the rest of the draft (also depending on who we get in FA/trade)

Linebacker

Tight End

DT

 

 

 

In essence, if Buffalo can resign all the UFAs I mentioned above (and obviously some of those are purely depth players... which this year proves we really need), Benford can make the transition to Safety (and I think he should be able to considering both Hyde and Poyer also started their careers at Safety) and manage to find a borderline pro bowl Guard and really solid Wide Receiver, I'll be very optimistic.

 

This is also all assuming and hoping that our young players like Shakir, Elam and Cook take a step or 2 forward in year 2, Von Miller is back for most of next season, and depth guys like Tommy Doyle are back.

 

 

Also, an important note.  I don't think our roster moves are the most important.  Frankly, I think it's most important for us to overhaul our coaching staff.  Frazier needs to be gone.  Fortunately, we don't need to fire him because his contract is apparently up.  Eric Washington needs to be gone.  Our DL has been just getting trounced for years and look at the resurgence Jerry Hughes just had in Houston this year getting away from him.  And I would say get rid of Kromer, too, but this was year 1 for him, so I'd give him another year.

 

But Frazier needs to be gone and McDermott needs to make sure this team finds a DC (or calls the plays himself) who can implement a better mixture of zone and press-man principles and can actually adjust during a game.

[Yantha]

5 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

1. Don't panic.

2. Let Frazier go and find someone who can work with McD defense but makes it a little more aggressive.

3. Start using rookies more.

4. Stop giving guaranteed money to players who may not make roster (like Howard, Mancz, Duke Johnson or Marquel Lee)

5. Stop paying ST specialists and stop paying 5th DE and 4th DT more than vet min, no matter what.

 

As for the team:

Keep everyone from this group who stays for vet min with NO guaranteed money: Matakevich, Crowder, Quessenberry, Martin, Van Roten, Hart, Boettger, Marlowe, Klein, hell even Saffold if he takes it. Then let these guys go if they don't make final 53.

 

Make offers to all RFAs - Dodson, Jackson, Lewis 

 

Let T.Jones, Kumerow, Sweeney go.

 

Keep Edmunds for 13M aav if possible, otherwise try to tag him and trade him.

Keep Singletary for 3,5M aav on 3/4 year deal, I think he takes it

Let Poyer go unless he stays for less than 4M

Keep Phillips and/or Lawson for no more than 2M each

Trade Oliver if you can get mid 2nd for him and draft his replacement, otherwise let him play on 5th year

Trade Davis if you can get 2nd for him and draft his replacement, otherwise let him play on final year of his rookie contract

Let Hines go unless he agrees to serious pay cut.

Find the best OL FA possible and pay him.

Maybe extend Jones for one more year.

Get best backup QB available for no more than 2M (yeah take a little bigger risk on this one)

 

If there is any reason to believe that Bernard might be any good think about playing 3LBs and trade T.Johnson (save quite a lot).

 

Draft WR and OL in rounds 1 and 2

Draft OL and defense (S or LB, whatever meets need/quality) in rounds 3 and 4

 

Or swing a trade for good WR for 1st or 2nd - in that case for sure trade Oliver to create cap space.

 

Great post.  I appreciate the details and thought.

Don't panic is a given.  This is a playoff team :).  I'd be moreso concerned if the Bills went 8-8 and missed the playoffs.  This is a talented roster overall.

I agree with a lot of this with a few extra points.

Good list of vet mins with the caveat that they have to make the team....  especially those O-linemen.  I'd add that I think Matakevich has been a bit better than a vet minimum bill.

A note on Poyer:  Next contract has to have some injury clauses or games played.  Worried about his age and ability to come back from the day to day "DINGS" that football brings.  Will he stay healthy and continue to play at a high level?

Your list starting with Jones.  I'm no cap specialist but I'd keep the whole group you listed except Phillips if possible.

I also think we need a better backup QB for insurance.  Go free agency.

 

As for the draft, my current rounds 1-3 positional targets as starters or top end backups are:

OG

OC

S

DL

WR

 

Other draft needs for better depth:

LB

DL

WR

S

OL

 

[GreggTX]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

Bengals were 6th in total defense and Chiefs were 8th in total defense, that is not league average that is top 10.

Agreed, replace Poyer and Edmunds with average guys and an elite DT. I guess the numbers for Oliver make it hard to unload him without creating $ problems, but something has to be done. Also, Beane needs to do better in the top 3 rounds. He hasn't been bad, but 31 other teams want that trophy. I know we say it every year, but he has to nail those picks.

 

[damj]

9 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

But you can't cut him.  The only option is to trade him and the team trading has to be willing to either pay him $10 mil in 2023 or work out long term deal.  And if I'm Oliver I wouldn't take anything that's not going to give me more money long term and still be good deal for 2023 too.  Otherwise I can just play for the $10 mil guaranteed. 

Maybe I wasn't clear here, but I know he is guaranteed and would need to be traded. There should be teams interested in trading for him.

11 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Restructure player contracts to add some freedom in the salary cap. Josh Allen's contract to free up 20+ million so at the very least do that.

 

Bills UFAs to resign (in order of importance)

 

Tremaine Edmunds

Sam Martin

Jordan Phillips

Shaq Lawson

Ike Boettger

Bobby Hart

David Quessenberry

Dean Marlowe

 

Bills UFAs to let walk

Jordan Poyer

Jamison Crowder

Jaquan Johnson

Taiwan Jones

Case Keenum

A.J. Klein

Jake Kumerow

Tyler Matakevich

Justin Murray

Rodger Saffold

Devin Singletary

Tommy Sweeney

Greg Van Roten

 

Bills RFAs to resign

Tyrel Dodson

Dane Jackson

 

Bills RFAs to let walk

Cam Lewis

 

Notable Bills position shift

Christian Benford to Safety as the starter next to Hyde in 2023

 

Positions to target via FA/trade (Hard to pinpoint names but I'll try with some... obviously it'll be a mixture of FA & draft)

Tight End (Gesicki and Engram would be nice if we could spend, but a young guy with untapped potential like Irv Smith might be what we see.  Won't be surprised if Hayden Hurst ends up a Buffalo Bill considering we love going after guys who torch us)

Wide Receiver (DJ Chark on the high end.  JuJu on the mid level. DeMarcus Robinson on the low end)

OL (not familiar enough with all the players... but this is one we need to go after in both FA & the draft and any OL position please.)

 

Draft positions to target on Day 1 &  2(in order of importance... but these are all positions we MUST draft)

Guard/Center (preferably someone with that position flexibility)

Wide Receiver

Safety

Running Back

 

Other positions to target through the rest of the draft (also depending on who we get in FA/trade)

Linebacker

Tight End

DT

 

 

 

In essence, if Buffalo can resign all the UFAs I mentioned above (and obviously some of those are purely depth players... which this year proves we really need), Benford can make the transition to Safety (and I think he should be able to considering both Hyde and Poyer also started their careers at Safety) and manage to find a borderline pro bowl Guard and really solid Wide Receiver, I'll be very optimistic.

 

This is also all assuming and hoping that our young players like Shakir, Elam and Cook take a step or 2 forward in year 2, Von Miller is back for most of next season, and depth guys like Tommy Doyle are back.

 

 

Also, an important note.  I don't think our roster moves are the most important.  Frankly, I think it's most important for us to overhaul our coaching staff.  Frazier needs to be gone.  Fortunately, we don't need to fire him because his contract is apparently up.  Eric Washington needs to be gone.  Our DL has been just getting trounced for years and look at the resurgence Jerry Hughes just had in Houston this year getting away from him.  And I would say get rid of Kromer, too, but this was year 1 for him, so I'd give him another year.

 

But Frazier needs to be gone and McDermott needs to make sure this team finds a DC (or calls the plays himself) who can implement a better mixture of zone and press-man principles and can actually adjust during a game.

I like what you've got. The only change is I would keep Beasley or Crowder on a one year deal to whoever will take the lowest amount on a 1-year contract

[billsfan89]

1- Fire Frazier, they need to find a way to come up bigger in the playoffs defensively.

2- Resign Edumonds on a backloaded deal, still fairly young coming off his best season try to keep him.

3- Resign the following players to reasonable deals. Shaq, Martin, Phillips, Singletary and maybe one or two of the ST players.

4- Sign a good vet guard and trade for or sign a good slot WR.

5- Draft a RT and WR in rounds 1 and 2 and draft a center and more Oline depth in round 3-4 spend the rest of the picks on defensive depth see if the new DC can get some late round gems.
 

That gives you two new starters on the Oline and two new WR’s. That should greatly help out the offense and the defense should still be a good unit.