2023 Offense

[Nelius]

Got to add that I think this post may overrate Hines RB2 ability as well, especially supporting a young back like Cook.

 

Hines has a career 3.9 ypc and a whopping 8 TD as a running back in his 5-year career. That's pretty lame. What's not lame is his speed, and KR and pass catching ability. He's what they've wanted McKenzie to be. You don't need Hines and McKenzie. Get rid of McDummy, sorry. He's too many years deep to make the mistakes he does and offers nothing other than being a Hines back-up, but you can easily figure that out in the draft or FA. Quick dumb guys are everywhere.

 

Hines is now your gadget player rather than a full on RB. Keep Motor, and completely ignore RB in the draft. Spend at least 2-3 picks, ideally early, on WR and TE.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, boyst said:

This hot take on cutting Morse is bad. Centers are a tough position. We would have to invest a 1st round, maybe 2nd or get a top end FA. 

 

Whatever we do we don't need to listen to Josh and his opinion on coordinators and coaches, let alone players. 

So if Josh says, "Morse is the only center I want to take a snap from" you'd be for cutting Morse?

[boyst]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

So if Josh says, "Morse is the only center I want to take a snap from" you'd be for cutting Morse?

i'd listen to a whole lot more than josh on any decision made for the offense.

 

i'll expand this.

 

josh is a raw QB still. he is from a JUCO and Wyoming. He's had, essentially, 1 OC his entire pro career. he's never had top shelf talent like other QB's like other NFL prospects have had. he has not seen top shelf coaching staffs, high end systems, etc.

 

if josh had time in a system at alabama, georgia, clemson, ohio state, usc, etc. where there was true nfl high end coaching talent i would give him a little more weight in a decision. but he's 5 years into an nfl career and not coming off a year which has the highest of confidences enabled. he is the qb for our future and has at least 4-5 years more to contribute - similar to what the average OC might tenure.

 

josh can have an opinion and share it but this is a system which needs a whole scheme and not just focused on josh.

Edited January 25, 2023 by boyst

[khlax3]

Quote

I don't understand why you've got to get rid of Motor for Foreman? This board makes it seem like Motor is the most boring player in history but he's averaged 4.7 ypc his career which is really solid, plus he doesn't make dumb mistakes, Josh loves him, etc. It's not flashy but I think keeping Motor and Cook if Motor is inexpensive won't open yet another gaping hole that needs to be filled.

 

i like motor but he is projected to get a contract in the 5-6 million range. Foreman is projected in the 3-4 million range. This team is going to start making hard decision and find places to cut salaries. With a Hines restructure/extension you can pretty much pay for foreman without dipping into other cap space. I also think foreman gives us the big power back we have been missing to take some of the short yardage Carries off of Josh

[khlax3]

9 hours ago, wppete said:

Not winning anything with that lineup. 

We won 13 games this year and I would argue that this lineup is better in most positions

 

QB- Same (backup probably worse but if Josh is hurt doesn’t matter)

RB- Same ( could argue better with cook in year 2, Hines having an offseason, and foremen a better fit for what we need)

TE- better (your adding a 2nd round athletic receiver who can also block and keeping everyone from this years team)

WR- Better (Meyer is an upgrade at the 2, Davis is an upgrade to McKenzie at the 3, 2 young guys with upside and McKenzie who was your 3 now your 5 or 6)

OL- Better (Dawkins- Same, Torrence- anyone is upgrade over saffold, Bates- probably a small downgrade to Morse but you get younger and cheaper at the position, Risner- upgrade to bates, Brown-Same (came off back surgery last year and missed all of camp so hopefully improves. Beane didn’t sound ready to move on)

[TampaBillsJunkie]

12 hours ago, boyst said:

This hot take on cutting Morse is bad. Centers are a tough position. We would have to invest a 1st round, maybe 2nd or get a top end FA. 

Agreed. We all saw what happened when Morse was out. He's the glue and the brains of the line. Better guard play and a solid right tackle would do wonders for Josh and the run game.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

The biggest single player improvement this offense can make for 2023 is to add an excellent outside WR who can allow Diggs to be in the slot.......and preferably that player is versatile enough to play there some too. 

 

The Bills definitely need OL help more than any position group but that isn't a quick fix if you don't have the ability to pick apart defenses with a quick game.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nuncha]

Why is Gilliam even on this roster?  8 catches 69 yards and one TD and he earned 2.3 million this season.  

[Big Blitz]

Move Diggs to the slot.  
 

Need to find another WR 1

 

If he can play the slot - zero reason to think he can’t with his smarts and symmetry with Josh - you could get the best O in the league real quick.  
 

 

But need to find another WR.  

 

Looking for another slot guy is pointless if you have 3 potential great ones on the roster already.  
 

Shakir could develop outside to.  

[RyanC883]

Anyone know stuff about Steve Avila from TCU.  Apparently he can play G/C/and RT.  That could be a nice 2-3rd target.  

[KOKBILLS]

15 hours ago, khlax3 said:

Based on Beane’s press conference that we are going to be tight on cap space and try to find value FA would you be satisfied with these upgrades on offense:

Sign:

Dalton Risner OG (6-8 million cap hit)

D’Ontae Foreman (3 million cap hit)

Jacobi Meyer (8 million cap hit)

Quesenberry- Vet min

Boettger- Vet Min

 

Draft:

RD 1 OG O’Cyrus Torrence (6-5 347)

RD 2 TE Luke Musgrave (6-5 250)

RD 3  WR Elijah Higgins (6-3 234)

Cut- 

Morse (saves 5.6 mil)

 

QB- Allen, Late Rd Rookie

RB- Cooke, Hines, Foreman, Gilliam

TE- Knox, Musgrave, Morris

WR- Diggs, Meyer, Davis, Shakir, Higgins, McKenzie

OL- Dawkins, Torrence, Bates, Risner, Brown (Depth: Doyle, Quesenberry, Boettger, Late Rd Tackle)

 

 

 

 

 

I guess everyone is going to see this different...There are a lot of potential possibilities...

 

I'm not interested in Meyer, or most any of the UFA-route WR's. Some of these players like Meyer are fine if they come in close to the Vet minimum. But most of them won't. But if the Bills Draft a WR in the 1st or 2nd, which they damn well better, That will give them Diggs, Davis, Shakir, the Draft Pick, likely Beasley (for one more year and he will have a roll), and probably Crowder too...In that case with a high Draft pick, how is a Vet UFA like Meyer going to get on the field? I have zero interest in 1st Rd OG's...Zero...It's just a poor roster investment IMHO. If the Bills go O-Line in the 1st it has to be an OT who can move inside if Brown looks better next year (Beane strongly defended Brown in his Presser). Or even a top OC that can play OG for a year or two. I very much doubt the Bills Draft a TE in the first 3 Rounds either. Unless one of the really good TE's slide. Or unless they fall in love with Darnell Washington who would give them a massive TE that can block. 

 

I don't mind Forman as a RB option to bring in. He's not bad at all.

 

I'd rather see something like this...

 

RD 1 - Jalin Hyatt - WR, or Rachee Rice - WR...But Hyatt is clearly my preference right now.

RD 2 - Jaelyn Duncan - OT, or one of the top OC's that can play OG for a year

RD 3 - Probably a Safety

 

 

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

3 hours ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:

Agreed. We all saw what happened when Morse was out. He's the glue and the brains of the line. Better guard play and a solid right tackle would do wonders for Josh and the run game.

He is , but he’s also a hit away from retirement. Don’t recall a C getting that many concussions- maybe he’s just susceptible to them. Anyway, RT has been a problem for a few seasons now and needs a solid upgrade but probably time to draft a new C. 

1 hour ago, Nuncha said:

Why is Gilliam even on this roster?  8 catches 69 yards and one TD and he earned 2.3 million this season.  

Can’t argue with that. BAL and SF use a FB but you can also see why. Can’t see much in the BUF offense that justifies a FB. 

[Beast]

I agree about a rookie for backup. If Allen goes down the Bills most likely aren’t winning anyway. Allen is now a seasoned veteran. He doesn’t need another vet holding his hand.

 

The 49ers struck gold with a late round rookie, though that is most unlikely for any team to wish for.

[khlax3]

37 minutes ago, Beast said:

I agree about a rookie for backup. If Allen goes down the Bills most likely aren’t winning anyway. Allen is now a seasoned veteran. He doesn’t need another vet holding his hand.

 

The 49ers struck gold with a late round rookie, though that is most unlikely for any team to wish for.

 

I personally like Max Duggan in the 5th from TCU. They got blown out by Georgia but he seems to have that similar gamer mentality that Allen has and if Allen got hurt I think Duggan's style of play would allow them to keep the offense the same

[y2zipper]

I would argue that the issues with the 2022 offense were more schematic and philosophical and less about talent. 

 

I agree with Greg cosell's assessment that the passing  and rushing schemes aren't really coherent. That's what I hear when people say the bills don't have an offensive identity and from an eye test standpoint, it doesn't make sense to me that one play there in a spread formation and in the next play when they want to actually run the ball, suddenly there's an extra linemen and a fullback. I also didn't particularly like Buffalo's tendency to bring extra guys in against the blitz. What works better is having enough blitz recognition to go where the Blitzer is coming from and get the ball out of Josh's hands more quickly.

 

At quarterback, Buffalo has what I refer to as the Russell Wilson problem. Josh Allen holds the ball way too long way too often. His recognition after the snap needs to get better, he needs to turn the ball over way less, and the decisions and reads have to get made much much faster. 

 

For all of the maligning that goes on with the offensive line and deservedly so, they were the fourth best team in the regular season at pass block win rate. It's a metric that determines what percentage of the time the offensive line gives the quarterback at two and a half second window to throw the ball. Buffalo's past protection group did that 67% of the time, but Buffalo didn't take advantage of it between too many long developing pass plays and a quarterback that has a tendency to hold on to the ball and gives it to the other team way too often. Against Miami and Cincinnati, Alan was over 3 seconds snap to pass. It's way too long the bills have to coach him to get that internal clock down so that he's more consistent and so his career lasts longer.

 

From a talent standpoint, I want to get back to where the bills were in 2020 and 2021. We knew that the bread and butter formation was having three quality wide receivers to spread it out more. We know Diggs is really a good player I like Gabe Davis on the outside as a vertical threat, but they definitely have to correct the error of letting Cole Beasley go without replacing his production adequately. That could be Diggs to the slot, it could be bringing Beasley back for another and developing Shakir, it could be anything else.

 

With the offensive line specifically, Buffalo should go get a couple of guards that can run block. Figure out what sort of running back oriented scheme you want, go get linemen who can do it, and build off that. They ranked 22nd in run blocking per win rate, struggle against light boxes they see and need to better there.