Diggs is Tweeting

[Punch]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Don't care that you can't prove a counterfactual. Two years ago was the year. Josh was locked in. The coaching staff bungled it.

Still time, of course, but that lost opportunity is going to haunt for a generation if they don't come through.

Teams have loaded up their rosters with QBs on a rookie contract. That's why these teams have had Super Bowl success by a QB's year 4. Obviously, that's an issue now that the Bills are forced to move money around but the window is still firmly open. In 2-3 years, it'll be much more difficult.

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

Well I mean, I guess we should just trade Allen then and go draft a new QB. Because trends never ever get broken. Just start it all over, go get the 6th best QB and finish 4-13 or something. Makes sense.

I didn't suggest that kind of fatalism in any fashion. Read more closely. "If" signals a subjunctive.

4 minutes ago, Punch said:

Teams have loaded up their rosters with QBs on a rookie contract. That's why these teams have had Super Bowl success by a QB's year 4. Obviously, that's an issue now that the Bills are forced to move money around but the window is still firmly open. In 2-3 years, it'll be much more difficult.

As long as Josh Allen is on the team and in his prime, or even late prime, there is a reasonable chance, but that does not make the miss in that rookie contract window any less an egregious lost opportunity.

[Doc Brown]

16 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Don't care that you can't prove a counterfactual. Two years ago was the year. Josh was locked in. The coaching staff bungled it.

Still time, of course, but that lost opportunity is going to haunt for a generation if they don't come through.

After watching the Bengals dominate us in the Divisional Round this year my "13 seconds" outlook changed as I think the Bengals beat us like they did the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.  

[Dr. Who]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

After watching the Bengals dominate us in the Divisional Round this year my "13 seconds" outlook changed as I think the Bengals beat us like they did the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.  

Unavoidably speculative, so unprovable. That is certainly not a ridiculous take. Each year is different and it is often a combination of momentum and fortuitous play that determines the outcome. What we had was an offense humming with diverse ways of attacking and a young qb playing with supreme confidence. I remain convinced that the Bills were shaping into a juggernaut set up to conquer. We were defeated by inexplicable coaching decisions, not only at the end, but in the inane strategy that wasted third quarter drives taking the air out of the ball. And yes, the defense was cooked. This last year is witness to the relative weakness of any defense in today's game. What Beane and McDermott took from that fiasco was the need to bring the qb down and so they went out and splurged on Von Miller. Naturally, that was not utterly dim, yet the more astute counsel would have been and still is to admit that qualified and partial containment of the best offenses is what one should strive for as most plausibly achievable. Building a fortress around Josh and increasing the weapons around him along with a cohesive plan to relentlessly pressure the other team's defense is the far more prudent plan, one that I am skeptical the Bills have embraced.

Edited April 6, 2023 by Dr. Who

[BillsFan2313]

16 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Unavoidably speculative, so unprovable. That is certainly not a ridiculous take. Each year is different and it is often a combination of momentum and fortuitous play that determines the outcome. What we had was an offense humming with diverse ways of attacking and a young qb playing with supreme confidence. I remain convinced that the Bills were shaping into a juggernaut set up to conquer. We were defeated by inexplicable coaching decisions, not only at the end, but in the inane strategy that wasted third quarter drives taking the air out of the ball. And yes, the defense was cooked. This last year is witness to the relative weakness of any defense in today's game. What Beane and McDermott took from that fiasco was the need to bring the qb down and so they went out and splurged on Von Miller. Naturally, that was not utterly dim, yet the more astute counsel would have been and still is to admit that qualified and partial containment of the best offenses is what one should strive for as most plausibly achievable. Building a fortress around Josh and increasing the weapons around him along with a cohesive plan to relentlessly pressure the other team's defense is the far more prudent plan, one that I am skeptical the Bills have embraced.

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

On 4/3/2023 at 11:43 PM, Doc Brown said:

Well, odds are young winning Super Bowl QB's will win it in their first four years. 

 

Super Bowl champion QB's last 20 seasons:

QB's to win it first four years of career:  Brady (year 2), Roethlisberger (year 2), Wilson (year 3), Mahomes (year 3)

QB's to win it year five or after:  E. Manning (year 5), Flacco (year 5), Rodgers (year 6), Foles (year 6), Brees (year 9), P. Manning (year 9), M. Stafford (year 13)

 

Plenty of time to get it right assuming Allen stays healthy.  Allen has only been a top five quarterback for three seasons now.

 

 

Also worth noting.....NEVER has a coach / QB combo that had been together more than 5 years, ever won the Super Bowl.  

 

If McDermott and Allen were to win one at this point, it would be the first time a QB/Coach pairing that had been together 6 years or more, won it all.

 

It's kind of weird to say McDermott, head of a very good team, is on the hot seat, but in reality, the situation of being all in, and not getting over the hump so far....it might be McDermotts last shot before maybe you put a new set of eyes and ideas around Allen and see what happens.  

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Also worth noting.....NEVER has a coach / QB combo that had been together more than 5 years, ever won the Super Bowl.  

 

If McDermott and Allen were to win one at this point, it would be the first time a QB/Coach pairing that had been together 6 years or more, won it all.

 

Brady / Belichick

[Zerovoltz]

....Maybe I should have worded this better....but Brady and Belichic were together just a year and won their first super bowl.  That's what I'm talking about....No coach and QB ever paired up has gone more than 5 years without a SB win, and THEN won it in later years.  If your coach and QB hasn't gotten it done after 5 years together, in history, none ever have.

 

This will be McDermott and Allens 6th season as a QB/Coach pairing.

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

....Maybe I should have worded this better....but Brady and Belichic were together just a year and won their first super bowl.  That's what I'm talking about....No coach and QB ever paired up has gone more than 5 years without a SB win, and THEN won it in later years.  If your coach and QB hasn't gotten it done after 5 years together, in history, none ever have.

 

This will be McDermott and Allens 6th season as a QB/Coach pairing.

I posted this last week. Was an article a few years old but still holds true. 
 

You’re a little off though. It has happened. Like 5 times. But hasn’t happened since Cowher I believe. I’ll see if I can find the article again. 
 

 

found it:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-coaches-and-qbs-should-divorce-after-five-years-of-not-winning/

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by mrags

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Brady / Belichick

 

I think he means “who had not won it earlier”, so Brady and Belicheck don’t count

 

I think what usually happens is that if a good coach and good team don’t take that next step within 3 years, ownership gets impatient and chops off their head: “NEXT!”

 

And sometimes that works - swapping Tomlin for Cowher after a disappointing 8-8 season for example

Or booting Fox for Kubiak in Denver

And sometimes it doesn’t - like booting Reid out the door for Kelly in Philly 

Or replacing Kubiak with Joseph, and Fangio, and Hackett, and ….

 

But I don’t think there’s a lot of data on what happens if you take a good coach and a good team with a great QB and give them some space to figure things out

[billsfanmiamioh]

7 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

....Maybe I should have worded this better....but Brady and Belichic were together just a year and won their first super bowl.  That's what I'm talking about....No coach and QB ever paired up has gone more than 5 years without a SB win, and THEN won it in later years.  If your coach and QB hasn't gotten it done after 5 years together, in history, none ever have.

 

This will be McDermott and Allens 6th season as a QB/Coach pairing.

 

And? These types of stats are meaningless. If the Bills ever win the super bowl it will be a lot of “firsts” 

[Zerovoltz]

1 minute ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

 

And? These types of stats are meaningless. If the Bills ever win the super bowl it will be a lot of “firsts” 

 

There is a first time for everything, and just becasue something hasn't happened before doesn't mean it won't happen.  I get it.  But, I wouldn't dismiss this stat as meaningless.  It stongly indicates that 5 years is enough time to know if you have QB problem, a coach problem or both.  

 

The Bills have the 3rd best SB odds this year...it's ENTIRELY possible McDermott and Allen become the first QB/Coach duo to make it happen after 6 years together.

[Doc Brown]

28 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Also worth noting.....NEVER has a coach / QB combo that had been together more than 5 years, ever won the Super Bowl.  

 

If McDermott and Allen were to win one at this point, it would be the first time a QB/Coach pairing that had been together 6 years or more, won it all.

 

It's kind of weird to say McDermott, head of a very good team, is on the hot seat, but in reality, the situation of being all in, and not getting over the hump so far....it might be McDermotts last shot before maybe you put a new set of eyes and ideas around Allen and see what happens.  

Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr would like a word.

[Zerovoltz]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr would like a word.

 

........winning NFL titles together during thier first years together is the point here......

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

........winning NFL titles together during thier first years together is the point here......

You said Super Bowls.

[Zerovoltz]

58 minutes ago, mrags said:

I posted this last week. Was an article a few years old but still holds true. 
 

You’re a little off though. It has happened. Like 5 times. But hasn’t happened since Cowher I believe. I’ll see if I can find the article again. 
 

 

found it:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-coaches-and-qbs-should-divorce-after-five-years-of-not-winning/

 

 

Direct quote from the article:

 

Call it The Five-Year Rule: No team has ever started the same quarterback under the same head coach for more than five years and seen that duo win its first championship. As you can see in the table, some really great duos just got their title together in the fifth year, but all 35 duos required no more than five years together.

 

This is what I meant to say...if that wasn't understood.

[mrags]

7 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Direct quote from the article:

 

Call it The Five-Year Rule: No team has ever started the same quarterback under the same head coach for more than five years and seen that duo win its first championship. As you can see in the table, some really great duos just got their title together in the fifth year, but all 35 duos required no more than five years together.

 

This is what I meant to say...if that wasn't understood.

Yes. And like I said. It’s happened. Just not often. The last time was Cowher. 
 

also a direct quote from the article:

 

“This is strikingly common in NFL history. Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring.”

[Zerovoltz]

16 minutes ago, mrags said:

Yes. And like I said. It’s happened. Just not often. The last time was Cowher. 
 

also a direct quote from the article:

 

“This is strikingly common in NFL history. Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring.”

 

yes, but of the coaches that took a long time to get the first ring...the QB they paired up with....they were never a duo more than 5 years.  That's my point here with McD and Allen...this is year 6 together.

 

Andy Ried didn't win his first SB until he'd been a head coach for like 20 years...but it was his 3rd season paired up with Mahomes.  

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

yes, but of the coaches that took a long time to get the first ring...the QB they paired up with....they were never a duo more than 5 years.  That's my point here with McD and Allen...this is year 6 together.

 

Andy Ried didn't win his first SB until he'd been a head coach for like 20 years...but it was his 3rd season paired up with Mahomes.  

I’m very simply stating that it’s been done. I agree with you about McD and Allen. I’m just telling you, why you’re saying is incorrect. There have been coaches with QBs that went 5 years before they finally won a ring. It’s happened. 
 

I found the one article. It’s too late and I’m too tired to argue about this. Your point is correct in that the 5 year rule is coming for Allen and McD. It was incorrect that it’s never happened. 
 

enjoy your night 

[Zerovoltz]

8 minutes ago, mrags said:

I’m very simply stating that it’s been done. I agree with you about McD and Allen. I’m just telling you, why you’re saying is incorrect. There have been coaches with QBs that went 5 years before they finally won a ring. It’s happened. 
 

I found the one article. It’s too late and I’m too tired to argue about this. Your point is correct in that the 5 year rule is coming for Allen and McD. It was incorrect that it’s never happened. 
 

enjoy your night 

It's literally never happend....per the article.