2023 Offseason Primer: State of the Franchise

[MAJBobby]

24 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Nice write up buddy, that was a good read👍

Don’t forget to check out the OL one that was the first position group I started with. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

And then to took another hard stop in the game as well.  I think you will see a surgery on him.

 

get it done early like in the next month and be ready to go come Summer

 

Allen said today he will not need surgery and that rest and recovery will be enough.

[MAJBobby]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Allen said today he will not need surgery and that rest and recovery will be enough.

Well then that is good. I hope his specialist and Drs are the ones that said that. I definitely don’t want a Stafford situation with that arm next year. 

[Seventeen]

5 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

To put in perspective how bad the defense has underperformed in the playoffs, in our one AFCCG appearance under McD we allowed 38 points.  In the 4 AFCCG games under Levy we allowed a combined 33 points!!  They increased in each game but never went above 13.  They were 3, 7, 10, 13.

 

True, but Levy's defensive personnel were much better than what Frazier has had to work with. 

[Aussie Joe]

I agree that a change of the D scheme is required 

 

If they choose to go down this path ( I'm still skeptical if McDermott will change this...) .. How long will this take to implement?

 

Im not saying dont change it, but if they need to acquire different ( more aggressive) players then this doesnt sound like a one season job... also I want them to invest heavily in new offensive players anyway...

 

Difficult choices ahead, but I agree that you cant just run it back ( again.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Seventeen said:

 

True, but Levy's defensive personnel were much better than what Frazier has had to work with. 

 

But they never had anything close to the stats this defense does in terms of ranking during the year.

 

And maybe that's the point...you need star players in the playoffs that can take over games, not just a good system with good scheme fit players.

[Buddo]

Continuity on the O-Line has probably been a bigger issue than we realise.

 

Having said that, we had what is supposedly our best line up against the Bengals, and they were found wanting, in some order.

 

If there was a position group that failed to live up to expectations, it was that one, and the WR room.

 

More talent is needed in both areas.

 

The DBs were struggling as soon as Hyde went out. Between him and Poyer, they simply put guys in the right positions on the field. Too many injuries, made it a difficult group to assess fairly, but inconsistency was an ironically regular issue. As was playing too soft coverage, which I think is part scheme, and part players.

 

They needed to put someone in, and stick with them, as it brings both continuity, and confidence.

 

With Miller out, the D-Line became way less effective. With Jones out, they became ineffectual.

 

Miller and Jones are the two guys who free up the others to make plays, and they aren't without the ability to make plays themselves. Hyde and Poyer, have been our CBs 'safety net', allowing them to try and make plays also.

 

No problems personally, with either Edmunds or Milano.

 

On the D, of the guys who played the majority of the season, the MVPs, in no particular order, would be Milano, Jones and Taron Johnson.

 

On offense, schematically, Dorsey and Allen need a long, hard look in the mirror. While I think they both know what plays Allen likes, and wants, what they need to do, is ensure that they actually make the plays they should make. 'Bombs away' isn't going to work, especially with only 1 WR who you can be sure will get separation.

 

Now, Dorsey may not have called as many deep balls as Allen was throwing on 3rd downs, as Allen wants that big play too much, but the design needs to remove the option, so that we et the necessary yardage, when things aren't going so smoothly.

 

Having said all that, it was still a successful season on two counts.

 

Firstly Damar should make a full recovery, after what happened, the rest is way less relevant

 

Secondly, we still clearly won the AFCE again, and circumstances notwithstanding, may have ended up with the #1 seed, both of which would have been targets for the season.

 

While everyone is pretty disappointed, to say the least, at the way the season ended, the amount of adversity that was overcome to get that far, shows that this group of players and coaches, had something together, that shouldn't be decried to the extent that is happening.

 

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, Buddo said:

Continuity on the O-Line has probably been a bigger issue than we realise.

 

Having said that, we had what is supposedly our best line up against the Bengals, and they were found wanting, in some order.

 

If there was a position group that failed to live up to expectations, it was that one, and the WR room.

 

More talent is needed in both areas.

 

The DBs were struggling as soon as Hyde went out. Between him and Poyer, they simply put guys in the right positions on the field. Too many injuries, made it a difficult group to assess fairly, but inconsistency was an ironically regular issue. As was playing too soft coverage, which I think is part scheme, and part players.

 

They needed to put someone in, and stick with them, as it brings both continuity, and confidence.

 

With Miller out, the D-Line became way less effective. With Jones out, they became ineffectual.

 

Miller and Jones are the two guys who free up the others to make plays, and they aren't without the ability to make plays themselves. Hyde and Poyer, have been our CBs 'safety net', allowing them to try and make plays also.

 

No problems personally, with either Edmunds or Milano.

 

On the D, of the guys who played the majority of the season, the MVPs, in no particular order, would be Milano, Jones and Taron Johnson.

 

On offense, schematically, Dorsey and Allen need a long, hard look in the mirror. While I think they both know what plays Allen likes, and wants, what they need to do, is ensure that they actually make the plays they should make. 'Bombs away' isn't going to work, especially with only 1 WR who you can be sure will get separation.

 

Now, Dorsey may not have called as many deep balls as Allen was throwing on 3rd downs, as Allen wants that big play too much, but the design needs to remove the option, so that we et the necessary yardage, when things aren't going so smoothly.

 

Having said all that, it was still a successful season on two counts.

 

Firstly Damar should make a full recovery, after what happened, the rest is way less relevant

 

Secondly, we still clearly won the AFCE again, and circumstances notwithstanding, may have ended up with the #1 seed, both of which would have been targets for the season.

 

While everyone is pretty disappointed, to say the least, at the way the season ended, the amount of adversity that was overcome to get that far, shows that this group of players and coaches, had something together, that shouldn't be decried to the extent that is happening.

 

I can agree to all this. The issue like you said is the OL and Weapons. Those top position groups do need talent. I am fine with how the defense played. 
 

problem is in todays NFL no matter how good your defense is defense is still a matchup game and can easily get exposed. The issue is we don’t have a complete offense to create those same matchup problems going the other way. 

[RocCityRoller]

Good write up, not just because I agree with about 90% of it.

 

I have been leaning into the talent vs coaching question since the playoff loss last season. Started a thread back then did not get much traction. I feel like this year was mostly a rinse and repeat hope for better results.

 

I agree with a disconnect between GM-HC-OC/DC. What made the Frazier/ McDermott defense work was the outstanding play of Poyer and Hyde in the back end. Hamlin did a heck of a job filling in for Hyde, but is not anywhere near Hyde's level. Poyer gutted out one of the toughest seasons I've ever seen from a player. Jaquon Johnson is no NFL starter or even a good backup. This is why Buffalo pounced on Marlowe, who has filled in for Buffalo well in this scheme. Newsflash, both Poyer and Hyde are getting quite long in the tooth. It boggled my mind that in a very deep S draft the Bills drafted none. It should have been clear that the defensive scheme relies on excellent S play and there has been no real investment in planning for two starting S over 30 with contracts near or expiring.

 

It feels like in order to cover for the decline in the DB group (White IR/ ageing S) they went for a big splash, all in move for Von Miller. That move should have been done a year prior (big pass rush specialist). Many here said it then. There were people here calling for Hassan Reddick this offseason. He is much younger, was much cheaper and had an amazing season (again).  Eagles got him for 3 yrs/ 45 million. A steal for a premium pass rusher. When I suggested it, I was told here he didn't fit the system. Maybe the system needs to be reevaluated then. This team could have had Bradberry and Reddick and a drafted S for less than Von Miller. The Eagles got both and look where they are. They are the most complete team in football.

 

A year later I am still asking is it talent or coaching. A team that goes 13-3 isn't missing both. Now the team is over the cap, used a bunch of the cap conversions last offseason to get under the cap and sign Miller, and has holes all over.

 

This team is in an Allen mid career retool and has very little to show for it. Total botch job in the 5 year window.

 

They have to focus on the offense, even if it means the D regressing some. Focus on making your best player better by surrounding him with talent.

Edited January 23, 2023 by RocCityRoller

[34-78-83]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

And then to took another hard stop in the game as well.  I think you will see a surgery on him.

 

get it done early like in the next month and be ready to go come Summer

No. He said today that would not be required and then Coach McD responded in his own conference saying he assumed the same since he had not heard anything different from the team doc.

[IronyAbounds]

8 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Here is the start to my series.  This is the thinking I have going into writing these on where the team is.  I will take comments and observations from this thread to help shape what I write int he future.

 

Here we are again in an all too familiar spot lately being bounced out of the playoffs but this time by another young QB, and by another up top end AFC team.  For a season filled with tragedy, distractions and issues I am not in a bad place as I write this so that is good.  I also do not think all the over-reactions of window closing, we are done yada yada are accurate not as long as you have a healthy top QB.  Which we do have.  However that being said I wanted to get the state of the franchise Off-Season primer out today (as I see it as I enter into Offseason Mode where I will break down position groups like always, while I prep for UFA and the Draft.  

 

The standard disclaimer:  I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information.  I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats.  Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future.  

 

So with no more rambling to start I guess I will get into it.

 

Financials:
Contracted players: 39 with a cap hit of $230.498M
Cap Space (top 51): -5.464M

 

Coaching:
Let me start off by saying No I don’t think nor would I agree with McDermott being fired this year.  Coming out of the KC game last year the 13 seconds unluckiness would have had everyone here thinking ok we are there, Run it back.  So what the coaches did was improve once again on defense and ran it back.  At the end of the day that decision proved to be a wrong path but no one would blame him here.  Now also I will say I don’t think there is another HC (that is currently coaching, Maybe Tomlin) that I would have wanted in charge of this team THIS year with all the tragedy in the area and team and all the distractions.  That being said Next year McD stops getting my good will, if he cannot get this team over the hump he is Lovie Smith and that is wasting an elite talent at QB.  

 

My Knee jerk response would be Fire Dorsey.  And very well may still be on board with that, however more likely he is back (if he doesn’t get a HC job) and we will see if he improves in year two designing and playcalling an offense.  There was no design to his offense.  No linking plays now situational football, he was JUST calling plays a lot of time with no strategic thinking in mind.  That cannot happen in todays NFL.  I do think that this offense really missed Daboll but it goes deeper than that.  It is almost like there is a disconnect here between the QB – OC – HC – GM, I will explain what I mean below.

 

2022 offseason – Was clear they wanted a Pass Catching RB.  Continued that obsession at the trade deadline.  So who was driving that desire? Dorsey? Beane? McD? Allen?  I doubt it as McD or Allen so that is on Beane and Dorsey.  So here were those plays?  There was no screens, the angle routes and Cook out of the backfield routes we hear so much about in the offseason where not there.  Some of that could have been on Allen not taking the easier throw, but again lets get to offensive design, if that was wanted SO MUCH.  Why were there not plays designed for the RB to be the first read??

 

Another instance.  Wanting that TE2 again they prioritized a second pass catching TE in the offseason, Morris beats out Howard this offseason with the 2 TE sets, earns the spot and then those plays nonexistent.  So the two priorities (that I can only think Dorsey wanted) were addressed, then the season comes and we get a poor mans Brian Daboll offense, ever since the MIA Box meltdown from Dorsey that is what was rolled out week to week.  
I think Joe Brady likely goes and Ken Dorsey stays.

 

Defense (McD and Frazier) – news flash to you all, having a top Passing Defense all season doesn’t mean diddly to me when in the playoffs it gets shredded.  I think your scheme has been figured out, it has been called simple, bland that is a problem.  Yes I agree you blitz these young top QBs sparingly (they have proven they will shred it) but they have also proven they will shred your soft zone.  So what is the answer here?  Get a little more complex, and no don’t spend more premium assets on this side of the ball.  I think there is a shakeup needed here and best hope is Fraizer get a HC, then we move on and get some picks back to help.    

 

Offense: 17 players on contract.

 

Houston, we have a problem here.  To be honest I am sure many will also tell you the same thing.  I do think a couple things to start off.  1.  I think there was a learning process going on with Dorsey, Brady and Allen that led into the season, which I kinda of backed up above.  

My Issues with this offense cannot be completely fixed in this offseason (for the most part) but they might be able to and I will explain.  The two biggest issues I see are OL (I have not liked our OL for a long long time, and their flaws have been covered up by Allens play).  So, because this is the biggest issue in the offense I will start there. I personally believe by the start of the 2024 season we SHOULD have 5 new OL starting, but that is two years down the line so I will look at what needs to occur in 2024.  I am taking a page from KC and Cincy here after their two SBs.  

 

We need to replace LG, RG, RT.  We should upgrade C, and LT as well (however might not need too if you get the other three right) with the exception of Center.  I would get a Center this year as well if it was me.  Only Keepers on the OL I see are: Dawkins, Bates (Depth), Brown (Depth), Morse (unless I move on).  I will get into the moves at this position when I get to the OL primer, but the state of the Bills this is the worst unit they are fielding, and it is the one unit that you want good.  

Weapons – Outside Diggs we have not much.  Davis is a WR3 playing WR2.  And the Rest are JAGs.  Really outside what the Giants the Bills had the worst weapon group in the playoffs.  How good would this offense be with a Hill or Waddle pair?  A Chase and Higgins pair?  A Williams and Eckler and Allen Trio?  It is Diggs and Only Diggs.

  

Defense:  18 on Contract.

 

There are issues here, it is amazing when Jones doesn’t play how bad they are against the Run again.  51M tied up in the DL for 2023.  So I am not sure there is much they can do here, I am thinking they ill likely roll it back with what they got, hoping to squeeze at least one more year from Von Miller.  We have to he isn’t going anywhere and the out for him isn’t until the end of next year.  

 

To be honest I think the biggest issue on the defense is more scheme and aggressiveness.  I will get into what can be done in each position group when I get to them.  Personally, I think it is time for a shakeup here.  There are trends that cannot be ignored.  Like the Lull every time during the season.  That lull seems to foreshadow what will occur in the postseason.  So I think there needs to be a shakeup in scheme which might mean McD swallowing his Defensive Pride, handing it to an outside the team DC.

 

My thoughts going into the offseason is that we need to spend out premium assets on the Offense and Fill the Defense with roleplayers.  That is how I am going to look at this offseason as I build out the offseason primers for each position group. 

 

Comments and thoughts will be appreciated as I start my planning for the offseason primers.  
 

I look forward to seeing how you believe they will have the resources to do the things you think they need to do.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I think we will see a surgery on Allen here in the next coming month.  No inside info there just a gut feeling

Maybe, but they have mad moves, not always the right ones.  But that is the fun part of the offseason playing the role of what moves you think they will make 

 

Perfect example I called going to buy pass rush last year.  I didnt think Von was in the cards but did call for a proven passrusher.  I think fans are pretty plugged into this team Beane even mentioned something about it last year at the CB spot.

I know there will be personnel changes. I should have been more specific. What we all want are coaches being replaced, that won’t happen. That’s what I mean.

[HomeTeam]

The more in reading this post, the more I'm leaning in the camp we have to do whatever is necessary to protect Allen. The thought of him getting hurt, or the inevitability of him "losing his dynamism" concerns me. Just think of what happened to Cam Newton. 

 

This has to be the top priority.