An Assessment and Going Forward (after taking a breath)

[Southern_Bills]

1 minute ago, RunTheBall said:

So pretty much keep everything the same. That should work.

 

 

 

What's the definition of insanity again?

 

If the OP thinks rolling into 2023 our coaching sideline should look the same he is foolish. 

[IndyMark]

8 hours ago, appoo said:

So on to the Assessment 

• Offense
  • TEs - Will cover this in the coaching section. Knox was wildly underused, and yet finished the season as a TD maker. I also liked Morris as both a secondary pass catching TE and a blocking TE
• Defense
  • The one semi disappointment was Ed Oliver, who I hoped would be good enough to be that game wrecker type, and open things up for others. Let's hope Von comes back as fully explosive as he was before the tear
  • LBs - I don't want to cause a fight here, I thought Milano was a stud, Edmunds not too far behind him, and you do what you can to keep these two together
• OC
  • So Dorsey was a rookie, and I think that showed.

 First, thanks for taking the time to reflect and write your response.  For me it was not a case of "TL:DR", though for some it will be.  This stated here is what I have:

 

(1) Your point on Dawson being underutilized was spot on.  Given how Cinn lines up, that was a miss from our OFF. In fact, I speculated on the "who steps up thread" that Dawson was going to have a Kelce-esque type day.  Eeeek.  Egg on my face.

 

(2) Your point on Ed Oliver is a huge miss.  Semi-disappointment? Nope. Overwhelming disappointment.  Ed, again seems like a good dude, was invisible in too many games and in his singular shining came (Lions) was lined up against 2nd and 3rd tier OL. For some on this board, leading up to the game yesterday were expecting Big Ed to "eat".  I never, not once, considered that.  Ed played precisely as I have said he played most of the year.  I got villified and insulted by some based on my observations and I hate that I was 100% correct.

 

(3) Yes, need to keep our LB'ers.

 

(4) Tough call on coordinators/coaches.  Dorsey at least can be argued is young and inexperienced.  Frazier?  I am having a hard time endorsing him.  At the least we need to change position coaches.  At best, coordinators. 

 

I am intrigued on how the next 72 hours unfold and really this time leading up to the draft.  However, I would hope everyone involved in key decision making with the Bills understands what truly happened yesterday. 

 

Do not explain it away.  Do not bury your head and tightly close your eyes and hope whatever it is goes away; [spoiler alert= it doesn't]. Rather, stand up and stare it in the face.  Growth mindset and all.

 

Go Bills!

[Bill from NYC]

1) Serious question: Is anybody here in favor of even possibly bringing Poyer back? He flat out sucked to the point that he was beyond useless. He was a full blown detriment to the team.

2) Poyer was just so bad that he took some focus off of Tre White, who also stunk up the field.  So much for our "star studded" secondary. White and Poyer are a waste of cap space and resources. We can dance around this fact as we choose to but it doesn't hide the truth.

3) The offensive line flat out sucked, including Dawkins. Were they as bad as Poyer? It was close but no. The middle was disrupted on virtually every single play. The bargain basement, 2nd and 3rd string Cincy line looked like the 90's Cowboys compared to our scubs.

4) Our DL had virtually no push up the middle for the entire game. None.

 

I think or at least hope that the Bills will rebuild next season where it counts the most. They need major help on the offensive line in at least 3 positions. This would improve the running game and of course help keep Josh in one piece. The pass rush should improve as the young kids age and Von returns. The secondary can be improved with a couple of mid round picks and perhaps a comparatively inexpensive free agent. Oh.....I also hope that Frazier gets a nice offer from some other team with a death wish.

 

I don't know about y'all, but this game pissed me off even more than last year's debacle. That said, most of us are old enough to have been through worse with our team. My hope is that even if I don't live long enough to see the Bills win a title, all of you will. Bills Fans are still the best fans of any team in any sport.

 

GO BILLS FANS!!!!!GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Bill from NYC

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, appoo said:

First off, this was a really fun season and I want to thank the Bills for that, as well as congratulating them for a good season. Winning 13 in the NFL against that schedule, with all that adversity is pretty special, so my hats off to the players and coaches. 

 

So on to the Assessment 

• Offense
  • QB - Josh had some bad moments, but overall he was the All pro type of stud his talent was made out to be. People harp on his INTs, but thats a natural function of his game, and are more than acceptable considering all the big plays and TDs he gives for being the gunslinger he is. Special Special player
  • RB - I'll talk more about this in the coaching section, but I thought Singletary was adequate, and at times showed some real lead back talent, and James Cook showed some nice flashes, and finished the season playing good football. Given the system, they were fine
  • WRs - Diggs is a stud. Perhaps one of the 5 most consistent WRs in the NFL. Don't really have to say too much about him. Davis was inconsistent, and he had some mental error stuff and drops, but also had some dominating moments. You continue to work with him in the hopes of consistency. The slot, I think McKenzie underwhelmed, and may have already been surpassed by Shakir. It's been fun lil' Dirty, but time to move on there. Need to find some depth for this position in the offseason, and 3 WRs behind Diggs, Gabe and Shakir
  • TEs - Will cover this in the coaching section. Knox was wildly underused, and yet finished the season as a TD maker. I also liked Morris as both a secondary pass catching TE and a blocking TE
• Defense
  • DLine - So in this league, my expectations for a 1st round DE is that offenses have to game plan around them. 2nd round pick you're effective enough to take advantage of 1v1s, 3rd and lower is basically we just hope you can be a situational guy as a 3rd or 4th piece of a pass rush. For the most part, this is how it played out. AJE & GR were both very effective when Von Miller was playing, and attracting the focus of the protection schemes, and these guys were playing against the back end of the protection. After Von went out, that effectiveness dropped considerably as protection schemes could just be base.  The one semi disappointment was Ed Oliver, who I hoped would be good enough to be that game wrecker type, and open things up for others. Let's hope Von comes back as fully explosive as he was before the tear
  • LBs - I don't want to cause a fight here, I thought Milano was a stud, Edmunds not too far behind him, and you do what you can to keep these two together
  • Corners - The Bills are going to have a really tough conversation on what to do with Tre White.  First, he is neither tradable nor cutable thanks to his contract. He simply doesn't have the explosiveness he had prior to the ACL injury. So what do you do with him? He doesn't have the short area quickness to be a slot corner, he doesn't have the speed to be a field corner, all you can do is put him on boundary...or do you move him to safety? He's a bit short, but I'd be super curious to see how he'd do as a strong safety - Poyer's OG position to Micah Hyde's FS. He can still move well enough to be a SS, has always been decent in run support, and excels in zone. Elsehwere, I do like Kair Elam, and you can play Dane Jackson on the boundary, while Benford is good depth. Maybe add a cheap corner or late round pick to round out that room. For much of the season though, this position was a struggle for the Bills
  • Safeties - Oh boy.  First off, we need to acknowledge the entire secondaries resilience. When we lost Hyde for the season, we lost TWO starters. Why? Because they shifted Poyer to FS (he's a strong safety), and brought in Hamlin as the Strong safety, He wasn't great there, but showed some flashes here and there and I thought was improving throughout the season. We can probably assume he's not going to be able to play ever again. You don't mess around with the heart.  This unit was adequate, which is honestly pretty good, all things considered. 
• OC
  • So Dorsey was a rookie, and I think that showed. Great start to the season, but once teams realized how average the Bills were in protection, they defenses essentially swarmed Allen for the last half of the season. Dorsey never really adjusted to this, and the offense suffered for it, all the way up to the Bengals - not a great defense - dominating them earlier today. They had the OLine and size at TE to go to a full power, P/A game plan. They had WRs with short area quickness that they could have gone to a more west coast style passing game, similar to the Bengals. Instead, Dorsey didn't really change his bread and butter, and stuck with Allen holding the ball until longer developing routes broke.
  • When they got the time, Dorsey had a lot of fun, and the team was fun to watch 
  • I liked the run game that Dorsey had going, even if it wasn't used enough
  • Criminally under utilized Dawson Knox.  That man should have been option #2 in this offense behind Diggs
  • Do we retain him? Depends on if he's open to being much more varied in his attacks. Bills on O were far to predictable, and didn't adjust as teams adjusted to them
• DC
  • Considering the various injuries, Frazier had this secondary running with tape and old glue. Then losing Von Miller, gave this man basically no good options. I know we want to throw this man into the Lake, but as a fan of 30 years, I have no Earthly idea how you adjust to losing all that talent in the secondary, and then losing a premier pass rusher. By the end of the season, he had exactly 2 high end players left - Milano and Edmunds.  
  • I didn't enjoy how he'd consistently use the first drive of the game as a throw away drive to see how the offense was gonna attack you. 
  • I like his nuances and variances as the game went along. He'd switch to man, he'd bring extra pressure, he switched up his zones, he went exotic, he'd go simple...generally the way the Bills defense worked was a slow start, followed by steady improvement until by the 4th quarter he pretty much had his D running the game. That obviously didn't happen against the Bengals, who simply outmanned his defense. 
• Going Forward - Coaches
  • Frazier, for me, is an easy keep, and get him an actual NFL quality secondary, and get Von back. I disafree with board Conventional Wisdom that Frazier rarely went out of base. He changed his coverages quite often, and when the front 4 wasn't getting it done, brought the blitz. The only reason you change him out, is if you want to goto a base 3-4, but if you stick with the base 4 man line, you keep Frazier, though he might get hired away
  • Offensively, I touched on this above, but if Dorsey shows willingness to be more versatile with his offense, then I don't mind keeping him. I would perhaps lean towards getting a more experienced play caller who can run a variety of stuff
  • Offensively, I'd like to also making use of the RB in the pass game, similar to what the 49ers do with McCaffery
• Personnel - Offense
  • There's a small part of me that's curious about the Diggs trade market to get some draft capital, but balk at the minimum 18M dead cap hit if you trade him. Diggs is staying, I think you ride with Davis and Shakir as well, however Knox needs to be your 2nd/1st option in the passing game more often than not
  • The OLine is a big problem.  First, I don't think Dion ever fully recovered from COVID, or whatever the reason he hasn't regained his 2019/2020 form.  He's still well above average, and you only save $2M by cutting him, and you won't be able to replace him.  Spencer Brown can't be risked as a starter going forward. I just don't think he's quick enough to be an NFL Tackle, and you might even consider using him as a guard. Bills need to use a high draft pick on a tackle IMO.  LG also needs to be replaced as you just can't resign Saffold. That's either going to be F/A or yet another high draft pick. Bates was decent, and Morse better than average, so you stick with them for another year, and hope the upgrades at RT and LG are enough to make them better as well.  I don't know if you can fix this in one offseason, and I dont think the Bills have the cap space to make a splash beyond some depth here
  • Sign cheap vet/low round picks on 2 WRs
  • Need to sign a vet min RB and go with Cook as your starting RB, and Hines as your 3rd down back
• Personnel - Defense
  • Resign Edmunds
  • Give Poyer his due and then let him go
  • Tre White would be someone I'd look to move on from, but his contract is uncuttable and untradable next season. Instead, you hope he regains some speed (he's gotta be a 4.6 out there at best) or convert him to strong safety
  • With Kair finishing the season nicely you don't need another CB this offseason. Well you can find a cheap vet, but Elam as the field CB, Dane as your boundary, Benford a developing rookie, and Taron Johnson as a really good slot DB, you just need to some depth  
  • Get Von back from inury, That alone solves most of your DLine issues. So wouldn't really touch that unit
  • Cuts - McKenzie (+2M)

 

 

You watched the same season I did. Although no mention of the biggest weakness on this team - the abhorrent offensive line play. Add "completely revamp the offensive line" to your list and I'm not too far away from the same place. 

12 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

1) Serious question: Is anybody here in favor of even possibly bringing Poyer back? He flat out sucked to the point that he was beyond useless. He was a full blown detriment to the team.

2) Poyer was just so bad that he took some focus of of Tre White, who also stunk up the field.  So much for our "star studded" secondary. White and Poyer are a waste of cap space and resources. We can dance around this fact as we choose to but it doesn't hide the truth.

3) The offensive line flat out sucked, including Dawkins. Were they as bad as Poyer? It was close but no. The middle was disrupted on virtually every single play. The bargain basement, 2nd and 3rd string Cincy line looked like the 90's Cowboys compared to our scubs.

4) Our DL had virtually no push up the middle for the entire game. None.

 

I think/hope that the Bills rebuild next season where it counts the most. They need major help on the offensive line in at least 3 positions. This would improve the running game and of course help keep Josh in one piece. The pass rush should improve as the young kids age and Von returns. The secondary can be improved with a couple of mid round picks and perhaps a comparatively inexpensive free agent. Oh.....I also hope that Frazier gets a nice offer from some other team with a death wish.

 

I don't know about y'all, but this game pissed me off even more than last year's debacle. That said, most of us are old enough to have been through worse with our team. My hope is that even if I don't live long enough to see the Bills win a title, all of you will. Bills Fans are still the best fans of any team in any sport.

 

GO BILLS FANS!!!!!GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

That's true on Poyer. But in fairness he should be on IR. He was trying to tough it out on a torn meniscus because of Hyde's absence. I wouldn't re-sign him anyway. I was never going to. But that is age and value more than play. I still think he can play if healthy. 

[Bill from NYC]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

You watched the same season I did. Although no mention of the biggest weakness on this team - the abhorrent offensive line play. Add "completely revamp the offensive line" to your list and I'm not too far away from the same place. 

Are you sure? Marv Levy once said that "you can't have too many corners."  🙄 Are you sure that Bald Dick Jauron won't use our best resources to revamp the secondary? 😒

[Ayjent]

This team was exposed on both lines where the drafting has been inadequate (OL) or hasn’t panned out (DL). Beane has done an amazing job but this team has had its Achilles heel with its lack of physicality on both lines for years.  But it’s deeper than that - there was a total lack of aggressiveness on D and they looked like they were playing a mid season game where things just weren’t clicking. To me that was the most disheartening thing to watch.  No pride or determination.

 

Seems like a franchise altering loss. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ayjent

[Bill from NYC]

2 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

This team was exposed on both lines where the drafting has been inadequate (OL) or hasn’t panned out (DL). Beane has done an amazing job but this team has had its Achilles heel with its lack of physicality on both lines for years.  But it’s deeper than that - there was a total lack of aggressiveness on D and they looked like they were playing a mid season game where things just weren’t clicking. To me that was the most disheartening thing to watch.  No pride or determination.

I blame McDermott more than Beane. I can't prove it but imo McDermott has far more power than Beane wrt the draft.

[Negan]

3 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I blame McDermott more than Beane. I can't prove it but imo McDermott has far more power than Beane wrt the draft.

Terrell Bernard and Epenesa have McDermott written all over them.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Negan

[NastyNateSoldiers]

9 hours ago, appoo said:

First off, this was a really fun season and I want to thank the Bills for that, as well as congratulating them for a good season. Winning 13 in the NFL against that schedule, with all that adversity is pretty special, so my hats off to the players and coaches. 

 

So on to the Assessment 

• Offense
  • QB - Josh had some bad moments, but overall he was the All pro type of stud his talent was made out to be. People harp on his INTs, but thats a natural function of his game, and are more than acceptable considering all the big plays and TDs he gives for being the gunslinger he is. Special Special player
  • RB - I'll talk more about this in the coaching section, but I thought Singletary was adequate, and at times showed some real lead back talent, and James Cook showed some nice flashes, and finished the season playing good football. Given the system, they were fine
  • WRs - Diggs is a stud. Perhaps one of the 5 most consistent WRs in the NFL. Don't really have to say too much about him. Davis was inconsistent, and he had some mental error stuff and drops, but also had some dominating moments. You continue to work with him in the hopes of consistency. The slot, I think McKenzie underwhelmed, and may have already been surpassed by Shakir. It's been fun lil' Dirty, but time to move on there. Need to find some depth for this position in the offseason, and 3 WRs behind Diggs, Gabe and Shakir
  • TEs - Will cover this in the coaching section. Knox was wildly underused, and yet finished the season as a TD maker. I also liked Morris as both a secondary pass catching TE and a blocking TE
• Defense
  • DLine - So in this league, my expectations for a 1st round DE is that offenses have to game plan around them. 2nd round pick you're effective enough to take advantage of 1v1s, 3rd and lower is basically we just hope you can be a situational guy as a 3rd or 4th piece of a pass rush. For the most part, this is how it played out. AJE & GR were both very effective when Von Miller was playing, and attracting the focus of the protection schemes, and these guys were playing against the back end of the protection. After Von went out, that effectiveness dropped considerably as protection schemes could just be base.  The one semi disappointment was Ed Oliver, who I hoped would be good enough to be that game wrecker type, and open things up for others. Let's hope Von comes back as fully explosive as he was before the tear
  • LBs - I don't want to cause a fight here, I thought Milano was a stud, Edmunds not too far behind him, and you do what you can to keep these two together
  • Corners - The Bills are going to have a really tough conversation on what to do with Tre White.  First, he is neither tradable nor cutable thanks to his contract. He simply doesn't have the explosiveness he had prior to the ACL injury. So what do you do with him? He doesn't have the short area quickness to be a slot corner, he doesn't have the speed to be a field corner, all you can do is put him on boundary...or do you move him to safety? He's a bit short, but I'd be super curious to see how he'd do as a strong safety - Poyer's OG position to Micah Hyde's FS. He can still move well enough to be a SS, has always been decent in run support, and excels in zone. Elsehwere, I do like Kair Elam, and you can play Dane Jackson on the boundary, while Benford is good depth. Maybe add a cheap corner or late round pick to round out that room. For much of the season though, this position was a struggle for the Bills
  • Safeties - Oh boy.  First off, we need to acknowledge the entire secondaries resilience. When we lost Hyde for the season, we lost TWO starters. Why? Because they shifted Poyer to FS (he's a strong safety), and brought in Hamlin as the Strong safety, He wasn't great there, but showed some flashes here and there and I thought was improving throughout the season. We can probably assume he's not going to be able to play ever again. You don't mess around with the heart.  This unit was adequate, which is honestly pretty good, all things considered. 
• OC
  • So Dorsey was a rookie, and I think that showed. Great start to the season, but once teams realized how average the Bills were in protection, they defenses essentially swarmed Allen for the last half of the season. Dorsey never really adjusted to this, and the offense suffered for it, all the way up to the Bengals - not a great defense - dominating them earlier today. They had the OLine and size at TE to go to a full power, P/A game plan. They had WRs with short area quickness that they could have gone to a more west coast style passing game, similar to the Bengals. Instead, Dorsey didn't really change his bread and butter, and stuck with Allen holding the ball until longer developing routes broke.
  • When they got the time, Dorsey had a lot of fun, and the team was fun to watch 
  • I liked the run game that Dorsey had going, even if it wasn't used enough
  • Criminally under utilized Dawson Knox.  That man should have been option #2 in this offense behind Diggs
  • Do we retain him? Depends on if he's open to being much more varied in his attacks. Bills on O were far to predictable, and didn't adjust as teams adjusted to them
• DC
  • Considering the various injuries, Frazier had this secondary running with tape and old glue. Then losing Von Miller, gave this man basically no good options. I know we want to throw this man into the Lake, but as a fan of 30 years, I have no Earthly idea how you adjust to losing all that talent in the secondary, and then losing a premier pass rusher. By the end of the season, he had exactly 2 high end players left - Milano and Edmunds.  
  • I didn't enjoy how he'd consistently use the first drive of the game as a throw away drive to see how the offense was gonna attack you. 
  • I like his nuances and variances as the game went along. He'd switch to man, he'd bring extra pressure, he switched up his zones, he went exotic, he'd go simple...generally the way the Bills defense worked was a slow start, followed by steady improvement until by the 4th quarter he pretty much had his D running the game. That obviously didn't happen against the Bengals, who simply outmanned his defense. 
• Going Forward - Coaches
  • Frazier, for me, is an easy keep, and get him an actual NFL quality secondary, and get Von back. I disafree with board Conventional Wisdom that Frazier rarely went out of base. He changed his coverages quite often, and when the front 4 wasn't getting it done, brought the blitz. The only reason you change him out, is if you want to goto a base 3-4, but if you stick with the base 4 man line, you keep Frazier, though he might get hired away
  • Offensively, I touched on this above, but if Dorsey shows willingness to be more versatile with his offense, then I don't mind keeping him. I would perhaps lean towards getting a more experienced play caller who can run a variety of stuff
  • Offensively, I'd like to also making use of the RB in the pass game, similar to what the 49ers do with McCaffery
• Personnel - Offense
  • There's a small part of me that's curious about the Diggs trade market to get some draft capital, but balk at the minimum 18M dead cap hit if you trade him. Diggs is staying, I think you ride with Davis and Shakir as well, however Knox needs to be your 2nd/1st option in the passing game more often than not
  • The OLine is a big problem.  First, I don't think Dion ever fully recovered from COVID, or whatever the reason he hasn't regained his 2019/2020 form.  He's still well above average, and you only save $2M by cutting him, and you won't be able to replace him.  Spencer Brown can't be risked as a starter going forward. I just don't think he's quick enough to be an NFL Tackle, and you might even consider using him as a guard. Bills need to use a high draft pick on a tackle IMO.  LG also needs to be replaced as you just can't resign Saffold. That's either going to be F/A or yet another high draft pick. Bates was decent, and Morse better than average, so you stick with them for another year, and hope the upgrades at RT and LG are enough to make them better as well.  I don't know if you can fix this in one offseason, and I dont think the Bills have the cap space to make a splash beyond some depth here
  • Sign cheap vet/low round picks on 2 WRs
  • Need to sign a vet min RB and go with Cook as your starting RB, and Hines as your 3rd down back
• Personnel - Defense
  • Resign Edmunds
  • Give Poyer his due and then let him go
  • Tre White would be someone I'd look to move on from, but his contract is uncuttable and untradable next season. Instead, you hope he regains some speed (he's gotta be a 4.6 out there at best) or convert him to strong safety
  • With Kair finishing the season nicely you don't need another CB this offseason. Well you can find a cheap vet, but Elam as the field CB, Dane as your boundary, Benford a developing rookie, and Taron Johnson as a really good slot DB, you just need to some depth  
  • Get Von back from inury, That alone solves most of your DLine issues. So wouldn't really touch that unit
  • Cuts - McKenzie (+2M)

Edmunds has to go we can’t afford to pay him 15-20 mil per no way he’s not worth it. He was exposed yesterday the Bengals attacked him all day . His instincts are piss poor and he’s horrible in physical games. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I blame McDermott more than Beane. I can't prove it but imo McDermott has far more power than Beane wrt the draft.

 

I think you can prove it. McDermott handpicked his GM. This is his show, there is no question. That said, I don't think he gets involved in talent evaluation decisions. Draft strategy I think he has a very big input. But deciding Boogie Basham is worth a 2nd round pick or that Spencer Brown is a 3rd rounder.... those are Brandon Beane. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Diggs trade….not saying one way or the other right now but I took a look and I thought a post June 1 trade leaves a 11.8M dead cap.   Not sure I am I interpreting spot rack correctly.   

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you can prove it. McDermott handpicked his GM. This is his show, there is no question. That said, I don't think he gets involved in talent evaluation decisions. Draft strategy I think he has a very big input. But deciding Boogie Basham is worth a 2nd round pick or that Spencer Brown is a 3rd rounder.... those are Brandon Beane. 

Mcdermotts only draft 2017 was pretty good.  Tre white Matt Milano Dion Dawkins have all been all pro or pro bowl.   Every player is still in the league.  

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Are you sure? Marv Levy once said that "you can't have too many corners."  🙄 Are you sure that Bald Dick Jauron won't use our best resources to revamp the secondary? 😒

 

Well the secondary does need work too, Poyer is out of contract, old, and played this season on one knee. Who knows how Hyde comes back and Tre White looks a shadow of himself (maybe with a full offseason he gets back to his best but that is a wing a prayer at the moment). But the NUMBER 1 PRIORITY for this offseason HAS to be the offensive line. And while you could argue that resource allocation has been an issue at receiver.... at offensive line the problem has been talent evaluation and that comes down to Beane and the scouts. 

 

They decided to spend a 2nd on Cody Ford

They decided to spend a 3rd on Spencer Brown

They decided to pay Roger Saffold $6m to be a walking turnstile. 

 

The way Dawkins played this year if there is any chance the Bills could get a left tackle in this draft and move Dawkins to left guard I would do it IN AN INSTANT. If that isn't an option I'm honestly up for looking at a trade to improve the line. Either a left tackle and move Dawkins inside (wonder if you could get Jake Matthews out of ATL?) or trade for a top guard - see if Tampa are willing to punt Shaq Mason on given that Tommy Boy will be gone. Every option has to be on the table. Because this line is an embarrassment. 

 

5 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

Mcdermotts only draft 2017 was pretty good.  Tre white Matt Milano Dion Dawkins have all been all pro or pro bowl.   Every player is still in the league.  

 

Agree. That was an excellent draft. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Ayjent]

They’ve invested heavily in the D Line and it made absolutely no impact against an OL missing 3 starters.  I want to blame the players and there is probably some blame to be had but then I realize coaching was what separated the Bills and Bengals.  The Bengals put their players in position to win while the Bills simply put their players in the position of an ineffective scheme. 
 

You want to protect your depleted secondary?  Get to Burrow.  If you lose you go out swinging. Instead it was a blood bath where the only strategy was to not take too many haymakers and just get jabbed to death. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ayjent

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Ayjent said:

They’ve invested heavily in the D Line and it made absolutely no impact against an OL missing 3 starters.  I want to blame the players and there is probably some blame to be had but then I realize coaching was what separated the Bills and Bengals.  The Bengals put their players in position to win while the Bills simply put their players in the position of an ineffective scheme. 

 

I think there is more blame for the players unfortunately. Yes you can scheme stuff up but eventually up front you just have to win your assignment 1v1 and yesterday on both lines we failed to do that far too often. 

[Ayjent]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there is more blame for the players unfortunately. Yes you can scheme stuff up but eventually up front you just have to win your assignment 1v1 and yesterday on both lines we failed to do that far too often. 

Fair enough.  What happened bc these guys were playing pretty well early in the season but as the season wore on they became less effective. Guys like Phillips and Settle were disruptive.  It’s definitely both play and coaching, and I know you aren’t disputing that but something isn’t right with the confidence of this team and I think we all wanted to dismiss it and hope they would play up to their potential in the big moment. Instead they did the opposite. 

[DrBob806]

Way too early AFC East 2023 predictions:

 

Bills 10-6-1

NYJets 10-7

Miami  9-8

NE 8-8-1

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by DrBob806

[Billzgobowlin]

10 hours ago, appoo said:

First off, this was a really fun season and I want to thank the Bills for that, as well as congratulating them for a good season. Winning 13 in the NFL against that schedule, with all that adversity is pretty special, so my hats off to the players and coaches. 

 

So on to the Assessment 

• Offense
  • QB - Josh had some bad moments, but overall he was the All pro type of stud his talent was made out to be. People harp on his INTs, but thats a natural function of his game, and are more than acceptable considering all the big plays and TDs he gives for being the gunslinger he is. Special Special player
  • RB - I'll talk more about this in the coaching section, but I thought Singletary was adequate, and at times showed some real lead back talent, and James Cook showed some nice flashes, and finished the season playing good football. Given the system, they were fine
  • WRs - Diggs is a stud. Perhaps one of the 5 most consistent WRs in the NFL. Don't really have to say too much about him. Davis was inconsistent, and he had some mental error stuff and drops, but also had some dominating moments. You continue to work with him in the hopes of consistency. The slot, I think McKenzie underwhelmed, and may have already been surpassed by Shakir. It's been fun lil' Dirty, but time to move on there. Need to find some depth for this position in the offseason, and 3 WRs behind Diggs, Gabe and Shakir
  • TEs - Will cover this in the coaching section. Knox was wildly underused, and yet finished the season as a TD maker. I also liked Morris as both a secondary pass catching TE and a blocking TE
• Defense
  • DLine - So in this league, my expectations for a 1st round DE is that offenses have to game plan around them. 2nd round pick you're effective enough to take advantage of 1v1s, 3rd and lower is basically we just hope you can be a situational guy as a 3rd or 4th piece of a pass rush. For the most part, this is how it played out. AJE & GR were both very effective when Von Miller was playing, and attracting the focus of the protection schemes, and these guys were playing against the back end of the protection. After Von went out, that effectiveness dropped considerably as protection schemes could just be base.  The one semi disappointment was Ed Oliver, who I hoped would be good enough to be that game wrecker type, and open things up for others. Let's hope Von comes back as fully explosive as he was before the tear
  • LBs - I don't want to cause a fight here, I thought Milano was a stud, Edmunds not too far behind him, and you do what you can to keep these two together
  • Corners - The Bills are going to have a really tough conversation on what to do with Tre White.  First, he is neither tradable nor cutable thanks to his contract. He simply doesn't have the explosiveness he had prior to the ACL injury. So what do you do with him? He doesn't have the short area quickness to be a slot corner, he doesn't have the speed to be a field corner, all you can do is put him on boundary...or do you move him to safety? He's a bit short, but I'd be super curious to see how he'd do as a strong safety - Poyer's OG position to Micah Hyde's FS. He can still move well enough to be a SS, has always been decent in run support, and excels in zone. Elsehwere, I do like Kair Elam, and you can play Dane Jackson on the boundary, while Benford is good depth. Maybe add a cheap corner or late round pick to round out that room. For much of the season though, this position was a struggle for the Bills
  • Safeties - Oh boy.  First off, we need to acknowledge the entire secondaries resilience. When we lost Hyde for the season, we lost TWO starters. Why? Because they shifted Poyer to FS (he's a strong safety), and brought in Hamlin as the Strong safety, He wasn't great there, but showed some flashes here and there and I thought was improving throughout the season. We can probably assume he's not going to be able to play ever again. You don't mess around with the heart.  This unit was adequate, which is honestly pretty good, all things considered. 
• OC
  • So Dorsey was a rookie, and I think that showed. Great start to the season, but once teams realized how average the Bills were in protection, they defenses essentially swarmed Allen for the last half of the season. Dorsey never really adjusted to this, and the offense suffered for it, all the way up to the Bengals - not a great defense - dominating them earlier today. They had the OLine and size at TE to go to a full power, P/A game plan. They had WRs with short area quickness that they could have gone to a more west coast style passing game, similar to the Bengals. Instead, Dorsey didn't really change his bread and butter, and stuck with Allen holding the ball until longer developing routes broke.
  • When they got the time, Dorsey had a lot of fun, and the team was fun to watch 
  • I liked the run game that Dorsey had going, even if it wasn't used enough
  • Criminally under utilized Dawson Knox.  That man should have been option #2 in this offense behind Diggs
  • Do we retain him? Depends on if he's open to being much more varied in his attacks. Bills on O were far to predictable, and didn't adjust as teams adjusted to them
• DC
  • Considering the various injuries, Frazier had this secondary running with tape and old glue. Then losing Von Miller, gave this man basically no good options. I know we want to throw this man into the Lake, but as a fan of 30 years, I have no Earthly idea how you adjust to losing all that talent in the secondary, and then losing a premier pass rusher. By the end of the season, he had exactly 2 high end players left - Milano and Edmunds.  
  • I didn't enjoy how he'd consistently use the first drive of the game as a throw away drive to see how the offense was gonna attack you. 
  • I like his nuances and variances as the game went along. He'd switch to man, he'd bring extra pressure, he switched up his zones, he went exotic, he'd go simple...generally the way the Bills defense worked was a slow start, followed by steady improvement until by the 4th quarter he pretty much had his D running the game. That obviously didn't happen against the Bengals, who simply outmanned his defense. 
• Going Forward - Coaches
  • Frazier, for me, is an easy keep, and get him an actual NFL quality secondary, and get Von back. I disafree with board Conventional Wisdom that Frazier rarely went out of base. He changed his coverages quite often, and when the front 4 wasn't getting it done, brought the blitz. The only reason you change him out, is if you want to goto a base 3-4, but if you stick with the base 4 man line, you keep Frazier, though he might get hired away
  • Offensively, I touched on this above, but if Dorsey shows willingness to be more versatile with his offense, then I don't mind keeping him. I would perhaps lean towards getting a more experienced play caller who can run a variety of stuff
  • Offensively, I'd like to also making use of the RB in the pass game, similar to what the 49ers do with McCaffery
• Personnel - Offense
  • There's a small part of me that's curious about the Diggs trade market to get some draft capital, but balk at the minimum 18M dead cap hit if you trade him. Diggs is staying, I think you ride with Davis and Shakir as well, however Knox needs to be your 2nd/1st option in the passing game more often than not
  • The OLine is a big problem.  First, I don't think Dion ever fully recovered from COVID, or whatever the reason he hasn't regained his 2019/2020 form.  He's still well above average, and you only save $2M by cutting him, and you won't be able to replace him.  Spencer Brown can't be risked as a starter going forward. I just don't think he's quick enough to be an NFL Tackle, and you might even consider using him as a guard. Bills need to use a high draft pick on a tackle IMO.  LG also needs to be replaced as you just can't resign Saffold. That's either going to be F/A or yet another high draft pick. Bates was decent, and Morse better than average, so you stick with them for another year, and hope the upgrades at RT and LG are enough to make them better as well.  I don't know if you can fix this in one offseason, and I dont think the Bills have the cap space to make a splash beyond some depth here
  • Sign cheap vet/low round picks on 2 WRs
  • Need to sign a vet min RB and go with Cook as your starting RB, and Hines as your 3rd down back
• Personnel - Defense
  • Resign Edmunds
  • Give Poyer his due and then let him go
  • Tre White would be someone I'd look to move on from, but his contract is uncuttable and untradable next season. Instead, you hope he regains some speed (he's gotta be a 4.6 out there at best) or convert him to strong safety
  • With Kair finishing the season nicely you don't need another CB this offseason. Well you can find a cheap vet, but Elam as the field CB, Dane as your boundary, Benford a developing rookie, and Taron Johnson as a really good slot DB, you just need to some depth  
  • Get Von back from inury, That alone solves most of your DLine issues. So wouldn't really touch that unit
  • Cuts - McKenzie (+2M)

Tre White will be back to normal next year.  With back peddling and turning he needed extra time to recover but he came back and played even though he wasn't 100%

21 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

They’ve invested heavily in the D Line and it made absolutely no impact against an OL missing 3 starters.  I want to blame the players and there is probably some blame to be had but then I realize coaching was what separated the Bills and Bengals.  The Bengals put their players in position to win while the Bills simply put their players in the position of an ineffective scheme. 
 

You want to protect your depleted secondary?  Get to Burrow.  If you lose you go out swinging. Instead it was a blood bath where the only strategy was to not take too many haymakers and just get jabbed to death. 

It was interesting to see how important Daquan was to this line.  Absolutely love his signing.  Also missing Von Miller and a hobbled Phillips didn't help but those darn backups have got to be better.  I think it's time to move on from Epenesa or get a dline coach that can unlock his talent because he has shown flashes.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

Fair enough.  What happened bc these guys were playing pretty well early in the season but as the season wore on they became less effective. Guys like Phillips and Settle were disruptive.  It’s definitely both play and coaching, and I know you aren’t disputing that but something isn’t right with the confidence of this team and I think we all wanted to dismiss it and hope they would play up to their potential in the big moment. Instead they did the opposite. 

 

Yea we were hoping they turned it on come playoff time they way that sort of did last year after a similarly scratchy end to the season. The difference basically was last year Josh became superman. This year he couldn't, he got dragged down by the malaise around him. In terms of what happened, on the dline the loss of Von and the injury to Ed hurt. They were the two guys early in the year getting doubled and giving everyone else 1v1s while sometimes still winning their assignments. Suddenly you saw others get more attention. Phillips hasn't made a play since week 1 that I recall. He has been a disappointment. Being without Daquan Jones hurt last night too, but it wasn't the difference between winning and losing. As for coaching, they definitely played too vanilla at times. I don't think it is about conservative vs aggressive as some paint it. It is about predictability. I feel like on defense without their safety tandem it felt like they got away from some of their disguised coverages, they played a bit more simple cover 3 and cover 2 and teams just worked it out and threw to the soft spots. And then there were individual errors. If that was Jordan Poyer's last game as a Bill it is a crying shame for someone who has been a great Bill to end with arguably his worst game in the uniform. He is hurt, he has tried to play through it but the first two touchdowns last night were both on him. And that is not the Poyer we know and love. 

 

There is a lot to unpack but I think there is also the inevitable over reaction today. The Bills played very poorly last night, they were out coached, out played and just physically beaten up by what I think is a better team. Their lack of elite difference makers on both sides of the ball showed up and ultimately they fell short of their goal again. But they still went 13-3 and won a playoff game. The sky is not falling. It is horribly disappointing and there are things that need to change, but people also need to maintain perspective. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

11 hours ago, appoo said:

Hadn't realized Dane was a FA! They might be able to get him super cheap, there's not gonna be much of a market for him IMO.

 

I think the staff should know through the OTAs what they have with Tre.  If you don't move him to safety, you'll have to start him off as the boundary corner to Elam's field corner. 

 

I don't see how they can afford to re-sign Poyer honestly. He wants to get paid, and the Bills can't afford to do that.

 

And agree on the uncertainty on Dorsey. It's also really hard to find good, experienced talent. In general, those guys are already OCs, and you can't really hire lateral moves in the NFL. You might be able to find a legit college option though. Art Monken is someone I'd be interested in, for example. Penn State's Mike Yurcich is another

lol that's like over half way through my post! So I had you for awhile then!

 

Time flies when you're having fun!!

 

I was surprised to see that too.  I think it's because he signed a 4 year rookie contract, but then was cut, and resigned to PS  Eventually made it back to active 53, but now was on a new shorter contract.

[appoo]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

You watched the same season I did. Although no mention of the biggest weakness on this team - the abhorrent offensive line play. Add "completely revamp the offensive line" to your list and I'm not too far away from the same place. 

 

That's true on Poyer. But in fairness he should be on IR. He was trying to tough it out on a torn meniscus because of Hyde's absence. I wouldn't re-sign him anyway. I was never going to. But that is age and value more than play. I still think he can play if healthy. 

I forgot to add OL in the first part of my post, but in personnel changes I said the OLine is the biggest problem.  Need to add a minimum of 2 new starters IMO.