An Assessment and Going Forward (after taking a breath)

[appoo]

First off, this was a really fun season and I want to thank the Bills for that, as well as congratulating them for a good season. Winning 13 in the NFL against that schedule, with all that adversity is pretty special, so my hats off to the players and coaches. 

 

So on to the Assessment 

• Offense
  • QB - Josh had some bad moments, but overall he was the All pro type of stud his talent was made out to be. People harp on his INTs, but thats a natural function of his game, and are more than acceptable considering all the big plays and TDs he gives for being the gunslinger he is. Special Special player
  • RB - I'll talk more about this in the coaching section, but I thought Singletary was adequate, and at times showed some real lead back talent, and James Cook showed some nice flashes, and finished the season playing good football. Given the system, they were fine
  • WRs - Diggs is a stud. Perhaps one of the 5 most consistent WRs in the NFL. Don't really have to say too much about him. Davis was inconsistent, and he had some mental error stuff and drops, but also had some dominating moments. You continue to work with him in the hopes of consistency. The slot, I think McKenzie underwhelmed, and may have already been surpassed by Shakir. It's been fun lil' Dirty, but time to move on there. Need to find some depth for this position in the offseason, and 3 WRs behind Diggs, Gabe and Shakir
  • TEs - Will cover this in the coaching section. Knox was wildly underused, and yet finished the season as a TD maker. I also liked Morris as both a secondary pass catching TE and a blocking TE
• Defense
  • DLine - So in this league, my expectations for a 1st round DE is that offenses have to game plan around them. 2nd round pick you're effective enough to take advantage of 1v1s, 3rd and lower is basically we just hope you can be a situational guy as a 3rd or 4th piece of a pass rush. For the most part, this is how it played out. AJE & GR were both very effective when Von Miller was playing, and attracting the focus of the protection schemes, and these guys were playing against the back end of the protection. After Von went out, that effectiveness dropped considerably as protection schemes could just be base.  The one semi disappointment was Ed Oliver, who I hoped would be good enough to be that game wrecker type, and open things up for others. Let's hope Von comes back as fully explosive as he was before the tear
  • LBs - I don't want to cause a fight here, I thought Milano was a stud, Edmunds not too far behind him, and you do what you can to keep these two together
  • Corners - The Bills are going to have a really tough conversation on what to do with Tre White.  First, he is neither tradable nor cutable thanks to his contract. He simply doesn't have the explosiveness he had prior to the ACL injury. So what do you do with him? He doesn't have the short area quickness to be a slot corner, he doesn't have the speed to be a field corner, all you can do is put him on boundary...or do you move him to safety? He's a bit short, but I'd be super curious to see how he'd do as a strong safety - Poyer's OG position to Micah Hyde's FS. He can still move well enough to be a SS, has always been decent in run support, and excels in zone. Elsehwere, I do like Kair Elam, and you can play Dane Jackson on the boundary, while Benford is good depth. Maybe add a cheap corner or late round pick to round out that room. For much of the season though, this position was a struggle for the Bills
  • Safeties - Oh boy.  First off, we need to acknowledge the entire secondaries resilience. When we lost Hyde for the season, we lost TWO starters. Why? Because they shifted Poyer to FS (he's a strong safety), and brought in Hamlin as the Strong safety, He wasn't great there, but showed some flashes here and there and I thought was improving throughout the season. We can probably assume he's not going to be able to play ever again. You don't mess around with the heart.  This unit was adequate, which is honestly pretty good, all things considered. 
• OC
  • So Dorsey was a rookie, and I think that showed. Great start to the season, but once teams realized how average the Bills were in protection, they defenses essentially swarmed Allen for the last half of the season. Dorsey never really adjusted to this, and the offense suffered for it, all the way up to the Bengals - not a great defense - dominating them earlier today. They had the OLine and size at TE to go to a full power, P/A game plan. They had WRs with short area quickness that they could have gone to a more west coast style passing game, similar to the Bengals. Instead, Dorsey didn't really change his bread and butter, and stuck with Allen holding the ball until longer developing routes broke.
  • When they got the time, Dorsey had a lot of fun, and the team was fun to watch 
  • I liked the run game that Dorsey had going, even if it wasn't used enough
  • Criminally under utilized Dawson Knox.  That man should have been option #2 in this offense behind Diggs
  • Do we retain him? Depends on if he's open to being much more varied in his attacks. Bills on O were far to predictable, and didn't adjust as teams adjusted to them
• DC
  • Considering the various injuries, Frazier had this secondary running with tape and old glue. Then losing Von Miller, gave this man basically no good options. I know we want to throw this man into the Lake, but as a fan of 30 years, I have no Earthly idea how you adjust to losing all that talent in the secondary, and then losing a premier pass rusher. By the end of the season, he had exactly 2 high end players left - Milano and Edmunds.  
  • I didn't enjoy how he'd consistently use the first drive of the game as a throw away drive to see how the offense was gonna attack you. 
  • I like his nuances and variances as the game went along. He'd switch to man, he'd bring extra pressure, he switched up his zones, he went exotic, he'd go simple...generally the way the Bills defense worked was a slow start, followed by steady improvement until by the 4th quarter he pretty much had his D running the game. That obviously didn't happen against the Bengals, who simply outmanned his defense. 
• Going Forward - Coaches
  • Frazier, for me, is an easy keep, and get him an actual NFL quality secondary, and get Von back. I disafree with board Conventional Wisdom that Frazier rarely went out of base. He changed his coverages quite often, and when the front 4 wasn't getting it done, brought the blitz. The only reason you change him out, is if you want to goto a base 3-4, but if you stick with the base 4 man line, you keep Frazier, though he might get hired away
  • Offensively, I touched on this above, but if Dorsey shows willingness to be more versatile with his offense, then I don't mind keeping him. I would perhaps lean towards getting a more experienced play caller who can run a variety of stuff
  • Offensively, I'd like to also making use of the RB in the pass game, similar to what the 49ers do with McCaffery
• Personnel - Offense
  • There's a small part of me that's curious about the Diggs trade market to get some draft capital, but balk at the minimum 18M dead cap hit if you trade him. Diggs is staying, I think you ride with Davis and Shakir as well, however Knox needs to be your 2nd/1st option in the passing game more often than not
  • The OLine is a big problem.  First, I don't think Dion ever fully recovered from COVID, or whatever the reason he hasn't regained his 2019/2020 form.  He's still well above average, and you only save $2M by cutting him, and you won't be able to replace him.  Spencer Brown can't be risked as a starter going forward. I just don't think he's quick enough to be an NFL Tackle, and you might even consider using him as a guard. Bills need to use a high draft pick on a tackle IMO.  LG also needs to be replaced as you just can't resign Saffold. That's either going to be F/A or yet another high draft pick. Bates was decent, and Morse better than average, so you stick with them for another year, and hope the upgrades at RT and LG are enough to make them better as well.  I don't know if you can fix this in one offseason, and I dont think the Bills have the cap space to make a splash beyond some depth here
  • Sign cheap vet/low round picks on 2 WRs
  • Need to sign a vet min RB and go with Cook as your starting RB, and Hines as your 3rd down back
• Personnel - Defense
  • Resign Edmunds
  • Give Poyer his due and then let him go
  • Tre White would be someone I'd look to move on from, but his contract is uncuttable and untradable next season. Instead, you hope he regains some speed (he's gotta be a 4.6 out there at best) or convert him to strong safety
  • With Kair finishing the season nicely you don't need another CB this offseason. Well you can find a cheap vet, but Elam as the field CB, Dane as your boundary, Benford a developing rookie, and Taron Johnson as a really good slot DB, you just need to some depth  
  • Get Von back from inury, That alone solves most of your DLine issues. So wouldn't really touch that unit
  • Cuts - McKenzie (+2M)

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

57 minutes ago, appoo said:

First off, this was a really fun season and I want to thank the Bills for that, as well as congratulating them for a good season. Winning 13 in the NFL against that schedule, with all that adversity is pretty special, so my hats off to the players and coaches. 

 

So on to the Assessment 

• Offense
  • QB - Josh had some bad moments, but overall he was the All pro type of stud his talent was made out to be. People harp on his INTs, but thats a natural function of his game, and are more than acceptable considering all the big plays and TDs he gives for being the gunslinger he is. Special Special player
  • RB - I'll talk more about this in the coaching section, but I thought Singletary was adequate, and at times showed some real lead back talent, and James Cook showed some nice flashes, and finished the season playing good football. Given the system, they were fine
  • WRs - Diggs is a stud. Perhaps one of the 5 most consistent WRs in the NFL. Don't really have to say too much about him. Davis was inconsistent, and he had some mental error stuff and drops, but also had some dominating moments. You continue to work with him in the hopes of consistency. The slot, I think McKenzie underwhelmed, and may have already been surpassed by Shakir. It's been fun lil' Dirty, but time to move on there. Need to find some depth for this position in the offseason, and 3 WRs behind Diggs, Gabe and Shakir
  • TEs - Will cover this in the coaching section. Knox was wildly underused, and yet finished the season as a TD maker. I also liked Morris as both a secondary pass catching TE and a blocking TE
• Defense
  • DLine - So in this league, my expectations for a 1st round DE is that offenses have to game plan around them. 2nd round pick you're effective enough to take advantage of 1v1s, 3rd and lower is basically we just hope you can be a situational guy as a 3rd or 4th piece of a pass rush. For the most part, this is how it played out. AJE & GR were both very effective when Von Miller was playing, and attracting the focus of the protection schemes, and these guys were playing against the back end of the protection. After Von went out, that effectiveness dropped considerably as protection schemes could just be base.  The one semi disappointment was Ed Oliver, who I hoped would be good enough to be that game wrecker type, and open things up for others. Let's hope Von comes back as fully explosive as he was before the tear
  • LBs - I don't want to cause a fight here, I thought Milano was a stud, Edmunds not too far behind him, and you do what you can to keep these two together
  • Corners - The Bills are going to have a really tough conversation on what to do with Tre White.  First, he is neither tradable nor cutable thanks to his contract. He simply doesn't have the explosiveness he had prior to the ACL injury. So what do you do with him? He doesn't have the short area quickness to be a slot corner, he doesn't have the speed to be a field corner, all you can do is put him on boundary...or do you move him to safety? He's a bit short, but I'd be super curious to see how he'd do as a strong safety - Poyer's OG position to Micah Hyde's FS. He can still move well enough to be a SS, has always been decent in run support, and excels in zone. Elsehwere, I do like Kair Elam, and you can play Dane Jackson on the boundary, while Benford is good depth. Maybe add a cheap corner or late round pick to round out that room. For much of the season though, this position was a struggle for the Bills
  • Safeties - Oh boy.  First off, we need to acknowledge the entire secondaries resilience. When we lost Hyde for the season, we lost TWO starters. Why? Because they shifted Poyer to FS (he's a strong safety), and brought in Hamlin as the Strong safety, He wasn't great there, but showed some flashes here and there and I thought was improving throughout the season. We can probably assume he's not going to be able to play ever again. You don't mess around with the heart.  This unit was adequate, which is honestly pretty good, all things considered. 
• OC
  • So Dorsey was a rookie, and I think that showed. Great start to the season, but once teams realized how average the Bills were in protection, they defenses essentially swarmed Allen for the last half of the season. Dorsey never really adjusted to this, and the offense suffered for it, all the way up to the Bengals - not a great defense - dominating them earlier today. They had the OLine and size at TE to go to a full power, P/A game plan. They had WRs with short area quickness that they could have gone to a more west coast style passing game, similar to the Bengals. Instead, Dorsey didn't really change his bread and butter, and stuck with Allen holding the ball until longer developing routes broke.
  • When they got the time, Dorsey had a lot of fun, and the team was fun to watch 
  • I liked the run game that Dorsey had going, even if it wasn't used enough
  • Criminally under utilized Dawson Knox.  That man should have been option #2 in this offense behind Diggs
  • Do we retain him? Depends on if he's open to being much more varied in his attacks. Bills on O were far to predictable, and didn't adjust as teams adjusted to them
• DC
  • Considering the various injuries, Frazier had this secondary running with tape and old glue. Then losing Von Miller, gave this man basically no good options. I know we want to throw this man into the Lake, but as a fan of 30 years, I have no Earthly idea how you adjust to losing all that talent in the secondary, and then losing a premier pass rusher. By the end of the season, he had exactly 2 high end players left - Milano and Edmunds.  
  • I didn't enjoy how he'd consistently use the first drive of the game as a throw away drive to see how the offense was gonna attack you. 
  • I like his nuances and variances as the game went along. He'd switch to man, he'd bring extra pressure, he switched up his zones, he went exotic, he'd go simple...generally the way the Bills defense worked was a slow start, followed by steady improvement until by the 4th quarter he pretty much had his D running the game. That obviously didn't happen against the Bengals, who simply outmanned his defense. 
• Going Forward - Coaches
  • Frazier, for me, is an easy keep, and get him an actual NFL quality secondary, and get Von back. I disafree with board Conventional Wisdom that Frazier rarely went out of base. He changed his coverages quite often, and when the front 4 wasn't getting it done, brought the blitz. The only reason you change him out, is if you want to goto a base 3-4, but if you stick with the base 4 man line, you keep Frazier, though he might get hired away
  • Offensively, I touched on this above, but if Dorsey shows willingness to be more versatile with his offense, then I don't mind keeping him. I would perhaps lean towards getting a more experienced play caller who can run a variety of stuff
  • Offensively, I'd like to also making use of the RB in the pass game, similar to what the 49ers do with McCaffery
• Personnel - Offense
  • There's a small part of me that's curious about the Diggs trade market to get some draft capital, but balk at the minimum 18M dead cap hit if you trade him. Diggs is staying, I think you ride with Davis and Shakir as well, however Knox needs to be your 2nd/1st option in the passing game more often than not
  • The OLine is a big problem.  First, I don't think Dion ever fully recovered from COVID, or whatever the reason he hasn't regained his 2019/2020 form.  He's still well above average, and you only save $2M by cutting him, and you won't be able to replace him.  Spencer Brown can't be risked as a starter going forward. I just don't think he's quick enough to be an NFL Tackle, and you might even consider using him as a guard. Bills need to use a high draft pick on a tackle IMO.  LG also needs to be replaced as you just can't resign Saffold. That's either going to be F/A or yet another high draft pick. Bates was decent, and Morse better than average, so you stick with them for another year, and hope the upgrades at RT and LG are enough to make them better as well.  I don't know if you can fix this in one offseason, and I dont think the Bills have the cap space to make a splash beyond some depth here
  • Sign cheap vet/low round picks on 2 WRs
  • Need to sign a vet min RB and go with Cook as your starting RB, and Hines as your 3rd down back
• Personnel - Defense
  • Resign Edmunds
  • Give Poyer his due and then let him go
  • Tre White would be someone I'd look to move on from, but his contract is uncuttable and untradable next season. Instead, you hope he regains some speed (he's gotta be a 4.6 out there at best) or convert him to strong safety
  • With Kair finishing the season nicely you don't need another CB this offseason. Well you can find a cheap vet, but Elam as the field CB, Dane as your boundary, Benford a developing rookie, and Taron Johnson as a really good slot DB, you just need to some depth  
  • Get Von back from inury, That alone solves most of your DLine issues. So wouldn't really touch that unit
  • Cuts - McKenzie (+2M)

 

Dane Jackson is a free agent, didn't seem like he's been here all that long.  Not sure with White, Elam, and Benford, you'd want to use cap $$ to resign Jackson unless they do decide to move White to safety.  It's been written many times that coming back from ACL takes 2 years so not sure the Bills would be ready to give up ion White as CB quite yet.  Ideally get Poyer to come back for one season to give White another year to show where he's at, then possibly move White to safety in 2024 if speed doesn't return.  Hyde will also likely be gone in 2023 so maybe FS?? 

 

Agree with you that Dawkins has struggled, maybe it is still from Covid.  Brown has only played two seasons and this past year had no training camp, or pre0-season due to surgery so hate to give up him that quickly.   But agree they need to at least bring in someone to challenge him for spot.  Isn't 6'-7" too tall for a guard??

 

Digg's 2023 salary is still fairly low, so probably not worth trading.  I think better option would be to pair him with WR taken in round 1

 

Daboll struggled first couple of seasons, many here wanted him gone.  But he learned and improved.  The difference here is the team is now in a win now mode, so not sure it has the time to wait for Dorsey to figure things out.  Saying you're willing to be more creative and changing is easy to do, but will it happen?

[JMM]

Lost me at FRAZIER IS AN EASY KEEP. BYE.

[appoo]

8 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Dane Jackson is a free agent, didn't seem like he's been here all that long.  Not sure with White, Elam, and Benford, you'd want to use cap $$ to resign Jackson unless they do decide to move White to safety.  It's been written many times that coming back from ACL takes 2 years so not sure the Bills would be ready to give up ion White as CB quite yet.  Ideally get Poyer to come back for one season to give White another year to show where he's at, then possibly move White to safety in 2024 if speed doesn't return.  Hyde will also likely be gone in 2023 so maybe FS?? 

 

Agree with you that Dawkins has struggled, maybe it is still from Covid.  Brown has only played two seasons and this past year had no training camp, or pre0-season due to surgery so hate to give up him that quickly.   But agree they need to at least bring in someone to challenge him for spot.  Isn't 6'-7" too tall for a guard??

 

Digg's 2023 salary is still fairly low, so probably not worth trading.  I think better option would be to pair him with WR taken in round 1

 

Daboll struggled first couple of seasons, many here wanted him gone.  But he learned and improved.  The difference here is the team is now in a win now mode, so not sure it has the time to wait for Dorsey to figure things out.  Saying you're willing to be more creative and changing is easy to do, but will it happen?

Hadn't realized Dane was a FA! They might be able to get him super cheap, there's not gonna be much of a market for him IMO.

 

I think the staff should know through the OTAs what they have with Tre.  If you don't move him to safety, you'll have to start him off as the boundary corner to Elam's field corner. 

 

I don't see how they can afford to re-sign Poyer honestly. He wants to get paid, and the Bills can't afford to do that.

 

And agree on the uncertainty on Dorsey. It's also really hard to find good, experienced talent. In general, those guys are already OCs, and you can't really hire lateral moves in the NFL. You might be able to find a legit college option though. Art Monken is someone I'd be interested in, for example. Penn State's Mike Yurcich is another

10 minutes ago, JMM said:

Lost me at FRAZIER IS AN EASY KEEP. BYE.

lol that's like over half way through my post! So I had you for awhile then!

[JMM]

Just now, appoo said:

Hadn't realized Dane was a FA! They might be able to get him super cheap, there's not gonna be much of a market for him IMO.

 

I think the staff should know through the OTAs what they have with Tre.  If you don't move him to safety, you'll have to start him off as the boundary corner to Elam's field corner. 

 

I don't see how they can afford to re-sign Poyer honestly. He wants to get paid, and the Bills can't afford to do that.

 

And agree on the uncertainty on Dorsey. It's also really hard to find good, experienced talent. In general, those guys are already OCs, and you can't really hire lateral moves in the NFL. You might be able to find a legit college option though. Art Monken is someone I'd be interested in, for example. Penn State's Mike Yurcich is another

lol that's like over half way through my post! So I had you for awhile then!

Yup, great post...until then. Shame.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

The problem with this team is the defense. The problem with the defense is coaching. Get rid of Fraizer Monday and let’s get serious about winning this thing 

[Punch]

-I think Frazier has had some nice moments this year after being dealt a rough hand but today was disgraceful. I think a change is warranted even if he isn’t 100% to blame. I also think McDermott staying would likely mean the defensive philosophy stays largely the same.

-Dorsey isn’t ready for prime time. Greg Cosell said it best earlier this week pointing out the lack of synchronicity between the Bills passing game and run game. I like your suggestions for potential replacements but doubt it’ll be considered.

-No way should they or would they consider trading Diggs. I’m not sure I understand the logic.

-The other WRs aren’t good enough right now although I think Shakir can continue to grow. Davis is fine as a WR3 but he’s hit his ceiling. He can’t be relied upon to be the WR2.

-I like Knox quite a bit and I wonder how often he was kept in to block. It seemed as though he was for the first half of the year but I haven’t seen route participation stats. He’s definitely underutilized.

-Absolutely agree on the O-line and much of what else you posted. Very melancholy right now but ever hopeful.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Punch

[not amused]

I think HInes will be too expensive to keep as a third back. His contract has a significant bump up, IIRC.

 

I wonder how much of the defense's problems are due to poor coaching vs. poor drafting. The 1st and 2nd round DLs are just not really producing it seems. And/or, is the DL coach deserving of any criticism?

[GoBills!]

Josh needs a reliable WR besides Diggs, you can't target Diggs 10-15 times every game. Gabe is a great #3 and awesome for run blocking, he is like Woods when he was here.

Plenty of Rbs available free agency, draft.Devin can stay or go, Cook is a change of pace and Hines is under utilized.

 

O-line is trash so either give more legit Wr's or beef up the Line. Mitch has to be done, Brown is a still a project, Hart is trash, Dolye showed promise but was on IR, Van Roten can go. I like Bates, Anderson is Practice squad.

D - We keep missing on Draft picks, maybe time to change our approach. Don't know who should be the scout or leader but we are missing on DE, NT, CB. Poyer will walk for money. White needs to do better, draft picks need to show up.

We are set with Kicker and Punter. 

 

[Success]

I'm not that worried about Tre White.  Coming back from an ACL is a bigger deal than a lot of fans make it out to be.  It's not that unusual for the 1st season back to be less than stellar.  

 

We need a bruiser at RB. Cook is a great burst guy, but watching Mixon & basically every other team, it seems like that's what we're really lacking. Allen is our bruiser, and that isn't sustainable.

 

The O-line.  So much work to do.

 

Great analysis overall. I'm sure a lot of folks will disagree about the coaching. Personally, I'd be fine if Beane did a hail mary, got Payton & started w/ a whole new crew.  But the current crew certainly isn't terrible, and I expect them all back. 

 

We need to be tougher, and more physical.  Speed/finesse teams can win championships - but need more things to line up to make it happen (like not having bad weather).

 

[appoo]

1 hour ago, not amused said:

I think HInes will be too expensive to keep as a third back. His contract has a significant bump up, IIRC.

 

I wonder how much of the defense's problems are due to poor coaching vs. poor drafting. The 1st and 2nd round DLs are just not really producing it seems. And/or, is the DL coach deserving of any criticism?

Hines' contract jumps to 4M next year, you can extend him and it'll drop his cap number.  

 

For me, the issue is the players not the scheme. Oliver sometimes flashes that first round talent, GR rarely does. I couldn't tell you if that;s down to the DL Coach.

 

I've seen Frazier's scheme dominate way too often for me to think it's a scheme issue

1 hour ago, Punch said:

-I think Frazier has had some nice moments this year after being dealt a rough hand but today was disgraceful. I think a change is warranted even if he isn’t 100% to blame. I also think McDermott staying would likely mean the defensive philosophy stays largely the same.

-Dorsey isn’t ready for prime time. Greg Cosell said it best earlier this week pointing out the lack of synchronicity between the Bills passing game and run game. I like your suggestions for potential replacements but doubt it’ll be considered.

-No way should they or would they consider trading Diggs. I’m not sure I understand the logic.

-The other WRs aren’t good enough right now although I think Shakir can continue to grow. Davis is fine as a WR3 but he’s hit his ceiling. He can’t be relied upon to be the WR2.

-I like Knox quite a bit and I wonder how often he was kept in to block. It seemed as though he was for the first half of the year but I haven’t seen route participation stats. He’s definitely underutilized.

-Absolutely agree on the O-line and much of what else you posted. Very melancholy right now but ever hopeful.

The logic behind Diggs has to do with the Bills likely being worse next year, and being able to add a 1st and 2nd to be able to draft some talent along the OLine.  I was weighing this offense of Diggs W not much change along the OLine vs Upgraded OLine W no Diggs. 

 

His contract makes that an impossibility

[Mr. WEO]

wait a minute!  I was going to start an other thread with these same thoughts as those other threads!

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, JMM said:

Lost me at FRAZIER IS AN EASY KEEP. BYE.

 

Frazier isn't an easy keep for me at all. His schemes and playcalling get exposed against good teams and offenses in the playoffs. All 3 seasons the D has had no answers in the playoffs losses. 38, 42 and 27 points which felt like it could have been 50 if they really needed them.

 

I'd take a D that isn't as good in the regular season but gets better in the playoffs. Instead we go the opposite direction.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Big Turk

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, appoo said:

First off, this was a really fun season and I want to thank the Bills for that, as well as congratulating them for a good season. Winning 13 in the NFL against that schedule, with all that adversity is pretty special, so my hats off to the players and coaches. 

 

So on to the Assessment 

• Offense
  • QB - Josh had some bad moments, but overall he was the All pro type of stud his talent was made out to be. People harp on his INTs, but thats a natural function of his game, and are more than acceptable considering all the big plays and TDs he gives for being the gunslinger he is. Special Special player
  • RB - I'll talk more about this in the coaching section, but I thought Singletary was adequate, and at times showed some real lead back talent, and James Cook showed some nice flashes, and finished the season playing good football. Given the system, they were fine
  • WRs - Diggs is a stud. Perhaps one of the 5 most consistent WRs in the NFL. Don't really have to say too much about him. Davis was inconsistent, and he had some mental error stuff and drops, but also had some dominating moments. You continue to work with him in the hopes of consistency. The slot, I think McKenzie underwhelmed, and may have already been surpassed by Shakir. It's been fun lil' Dirty, but time to move on there. Need to find some depth for this position in the offseason, and 3 WRs behind Diggs, Gabe and Shakir
  • TEs - Will cover this in the coaching section. Knox was wildly underused, and yet finished the season as a TD maker. I also liked Morris as both a secondary pass catching TE and a blocking TE
• Defense
  • DLine - So in this league, my expectations for a 1st round DE is that offenses have to game plan around them. 2nd round pick you're effective enough to take advantage of 1v1s, 3rd and lower is basically we just hope you can be a situational guy as a 3rd or 4th piece of a pass rush. For the most part, this is how it played out. AJE & GR were both very effective when Von Miller was playing, and attracting the focus of the protection schemes, and these guys were playing against the back end of the protection. After Von went out, that effectiveness dropped considerably as protection schemes could just be base.  The one semi disappointment was Ed Oliver, who I hoped would be good enough to be that game wrecker type, and open things up for others. Let's hope Von comes back as fully explosive as he was before the tear
  • LBs - I don't want to cause a fight here, I thought Milano was a stud, Edmunds not too far behind him, and you do what you can to keep these two together
  • Corners - The Bills are going to have a really tough conversation on what to do with Tre White.  First, he is neither tradable nor cutable thanks to his contract. He simply doesn't have the explosiveness he had prior to the ACL injury. So what do you do with him? He doesn't have the short area quickness to be a slot corner, he doesn't have the speed to be a field corner, all you can do is put him on boundary...or do you move him to safety? He's a bit short, but I'd be super curious to see how he'd do as a strong safety - Poyer's OG position to Micah Hyde's FS. He can still move well enough to be a SS, has always been decent in run support, and excels in zone. Elsehwere, I do like Kair Elam, and you can play Dane Jackson on the boundary, while Benford is good depth. Maybe add a cheap corner or late round pick to round out that room. For much of the season though, this position was a struggle for the Bills
  • Safeties - Oh boy.  First off, we need to acknowledge the entire secondaries resilience. When we lost Hyde for the season, we lost TWO starters. Why? Because they shifted Poyer to FS (he's a strong safety), and brought in Hamlin as the Strong safety, He wasn't great there, but showed some flashes here and there and I thought was improving throughout the season. We can probably assume he's not going to be able to play ever again. You don't mess around with the heart.  This unit was adequate, which is honestly pretty good, all things considered. 
• OC
  • So Dorsey was a rookie, and I think that showed. Great start to the season, but once teams realized how average the Bills were in protection, they defenses essentially swarmed Allen for the last half of the season. Dorsey never really adjusted to this, and the offense suffered for it, all the way up to the Bengals - not a great defense - dominating them earlier today. They had the OLine and size at TE to go to a full power, P/A game plan. They had WRs with short area quickness that they could have gone to a more west coast style passing game, similar to the Bengals. Instead, Dorsey didn't really change his bread and butter, and stuck with Allen holding the ball until longer developing routes broke.
  • When they got the time, Dorsey had a lot of fun, and the team was fun to watch 
  • I liked the run game that Dorsey had going, even if it wasn't used enough
  • Criminally under utilized Dawson Knox.  That man should have been option #2 in this offense behind Diggs
  • Do we retain him? Depends on if he's open to being much more varied in his attacks. Bills on O were far to predictable, and didn't adjust as teams adjusted to them
• DC
  • Considering the various injuries, Frazier had this secondary running with tape and old glue. Then losing Von Miller, gave this man basically no good options. I know we want to throw this man into the Lake, but as a fan of 30 years, I have no Earthly idea how you adjust to losing all that talent in the secondary, and then losing a premier pass rusher. By the end of the season, he had exactly 2 high end players left - Milano and Edmunds.  
  • I didn't enjoy how he'd consistently use the first drive of the game as a throw away drive to see how the offense was gonna attack you. 
  • I like his nuances and variances as the game went along. He'd switch to man, he'd bring extra pressure, he switched up his zones, he went exotic, he'd go simple...generally the way the Bills defense worked was a slow start, followed by steady improvement until by the 4th quarter he pretty much had his D running the game. That obviously didn't happen against the Bengals, who simply outmanned his defense. 
• Going Forward - Coaches
  • Frazier, for me, is an easy keep, and get him an actual NFL quality secondary, and get Von back. I disafree with board Conventional Wisdom that Frazier rarely went out of base. He changed his coverages quite often, and when the front 4 wasn't getting it done, brought the blitz. The only reason you change him out, is if you want to goto a base 3-4, but if you stick with the base 4 man line, you keep Frazier, though he might get hired away
  • Offensively, I touched on this above, but if Dorsey shows willingness to be more versatile with his offense, then I don't mind keeping him. I would perhaps lean towards getting a more experienced play caller who can run a variety of stuff
  • Offensively, I'd like to also making use of the RB in the pass game, similar to what the 49ers do with McCaffery
• Personnel - Offense
  • There's a small part of me that's curious about the Diggs trade market to get some draft capital, but balk at the minimum 18M dead cap hit if you trade him. Diggs is staying, I think you ride with Davis and Shakir as well, however Knox needs to be your 2nd/1st option in the passing game more often than not
  • The OLine is a big problem.  First, I don't think Dion ever fully recovered from COVID, or whatever the reason he hasn't regained his 2019/2020 form.  He's still well above average, and you only save $2M by cutting him, and you won't be able to replace him.  Spencer Brown can't be risked as a starter going forward. I just don't think he's quick enough to be an NFL Tackle, and you might even consider using him as a guard. Bills need to use a high draft pick on a tackle IMO.  LG also needs to be replaced as you just can't resign Saffold. That's either going to be F/A or yet another high draft pick. Bates was decent, and Morse better than average, so you stick with them for another year, and hope the upgrades at RT and LG are enough to make them better as well.  I don't know if you can fix this in one offseason, and I dont think the Bills have the cap space to make a splash beyond some depth here
  • Sign cheap vet/low round picks on 2 WRs
  • Need to sign a vet min RB and go with Cook as your starting RB, and Hines as your 3rd down back
• Personnel - Defense
  • Resign Edmunds
  • Give Poyer his due and then let him go
  • Tre White would be someone I'd look to move on from, but his contract is uncuttable and untradable next season. Instead, you hope he regains some speed (he's gotta be a 4.6 out there at best) or convert him to strong safety
  • With Kair finishing the season nicely you don't need another CB this offseason. Well you can find a cheap vet, but Elam as the field CB, Dane as your boundary, Benford a developing rookie, and Taron Johnson as a really good slot DB, you just need to some depth  
  • Get Von back from inury, That alone solves most of your DLine issues. So wouldn't really touch that unit
  • Cuts - McKenzie (+2M)

We are not seeing the actual tree white. Let’s see what he looks like in camp.

[BillsPride12]

You lost me at "this was a really fun season"

Edited January 23, 2023 by BillsPride12

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Tre white is not and will never be an NFL safety! Not in this defense, not in any defense. He either returns to form next year or he’s an expensive problem. 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

The bills offense has become easy to defend - rush 4, dt's hold ground and de's pin your ears back and rush QB don't worry about the run. 

 

The bills have to show a willingness to run the ball if they get looks that say run the ball. If they don't they become easy to defend. Too many times the bills face a 6 or 7 man box and refuse to run. 

 

Defensively if you are fine beating up on average to below average qbs while above average qbs will feast then you keep the same system

 

I'm not sure how you "run this back" without a lot of changes. How do you sell that you're a contender after being thoroughly out played and out coached in every aspect of the game

[BillMafia716ix]

They need a proven play caller on offense. They can’t afford to go into next season with Ken Dorsey. Ken Dorsey showed the inability to create ways to get the Bills main guys the ball consistently (Diggs, Knox, Davis). If you’re moving forward with Cook as RB1. They need a short yardage back. 
 

 

[Negan]

Has the coaching staff been fired yet?

[RunTheBall]

So pretty much keep everything the same. That should work.