The Ringer: Josh Allen Needs to Chill

[Michael1962]

He took deep shots because that is what Miami was daring him to do by covering other options.  Does he like doing that and probably salivate at the opportunity?  Probably but to state simply that the choice was all on him is misguided.

[The Frankish Reich]

4 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Except all of the numbers show how effective our passing offense is on a per play basis sooooooooooooooooo

Win expectancy added. That’s what the OC and the QB have to internalize and make a quick seat of the pants estimate of before drawing up the play/throwing the ball. 
It’s easier with basketball. For years analytics have shown the mid-range jump shot is the worst expected points per possession play. 2 points if you make it. You probably shoot 50% on those. Expected points: 1. A really good 3-point shooter (and there’s lots and lots of them now because this is understood) makes 40% of his 3s. 1.2 points expected. 
But … not every situation calls for playing it this way. Example: your team is up 3 points. 35 seconds left. Taking -a 3 (assume there’s no such thing as an offensive rebound) means a 60% chance your opponent gets the ball with 11 seconds left and a chance to tie. Taking the 3 is a bad move unless you have Steph Curry or Damian Lillard on your team and he’s unguarded at the 3 point line. 

[The Frankish Reich]

4 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I didn't think it came off as personal, and I was not responding to your comment in a personal manner either brother! 

 

I am simply saying, I'll take "the good with the bad" just as it is. It has largely been game plan specific. He has shown the ability all year to hit open underneath/mid range targets. I am saying this is a non issue and im OK with that crappy offensive series where he took back to back deep shots to Gabe Davis and we punted (I was not at the time lol) because it means we also get multiple deep shot connections a game.

 

And as the post above that shows the twitter thread by @sharpndpensel (a great follow by the way), the passing offense is still wildly effective so who cares how it gets done? The bottom line is, every metric shows that GREAT things happen when Joshua Patrick Allen drops back to fire the pigskin. 

Agreed. No offense taken. I’m just defending that Ringer nerd who was effusive in his praise of Allen and Dorsey but is being ripped here for saying a slightly more conservative Allen (given the game situation) could be even better … Bills fans have a weird defensiveness about ANY type of criticism of their heroes. That’s what 20 years of utter futility did to us. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

 

 What is his definition of deep? Because Josh didn't throw deep for almost 2 months because of the UCL injury. He just started throwing deep again in Pats game, week 18.

 

 

 

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Allen was correct by going deep often against Miami. He had open guys. He just missed a couple times and one was dropped. I want Allen to take deep shots when the guys are open.

For years after Kelly we had qbs who routinely threw passes just like the one Kirk Cousins ended the Giants' game with. For years, when Bills faced a third and long, hell, third and medium, you knew the punter was already warming up. We now have the best team in the league converting third down. You are never out of a game with Josh Allen. Three losses this year by a combined eight points. We generally have to play bad and get bad breaks just to put ourselves in a position to lose. Josh Allen is that good. Greg Cossell who is no dummy has said numerous times, often to media personalities that don't want to hear it, that Allen is the most gifted qb to ever suit up in the NFL. He's also the single most fun player to watch, even though the paid pundits will continue to favor Mahomes and are lining up Burrow as second choice of the fella they want to gush over.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Allen was correct by going deep often against Miami. He had open guys. He just missed a couple times and one was dropped. I want Allen to take deep shots when the guys are open.

 

 I think it was the game plan going in. If they're going to send everyone and someone has a step, make them pay for it.

 

 

 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

Funny how Josh isn’t reckless when he hits those deep shots in tight game situations. He attempts those passes for a simple reason: because those plays are there to be made and he is supremely confident that he and his receivers can make them. I have no problem with that. 

 

 I love how Josh is reckless, but Mahomes and Burrow aren't. They only have 2 less ints this year and it's not just this year. Since the start of last year Josh has 29, Burrow has 26 & Mahomes had 25. They all have about the same amount over a 2 year span

 

 Then there will be people to bring up the fumbles and it's true Josh fumbles more than the other 2. But there's a few reasons for that. 1 is Mahomes has a much better o-line than Josh does and  Burrow has a better one also. And Burrow still has lost 3 strip sack fumbles on the year. When running, Burrow gets a tip of the cap as he does a good job hanging onto the ball. But as for the golden boy, Mahomes, he fumbles the ball at a higher rate while running the ball than Allen does. Mahomes has 5 fumbles on 61 carries or 1 in every 12.2 carries vs Allen has fumbled 8 times on 124 carries or 1 in every 15.5 carries. Lawrence is another QB getting alot of love right now, he led the league with 9 lost fumbles this season. Yet all you hear about is Josh.

 

 

Was he reckless when he threw that pin point td to Knox early in the game? Or the 2 perfect bombs to Diggs over the last 2 weeks. How about the perfect td pass to Gabe on Sunday or the 49 yard perfect td strike to Gabe in Pats game that Gabe dropped or the perfect bomb to Shakir that he dropped. He has 9 turnovers during their 8 game winning streak, with 3 coming last week. That means he only has 6 in the other 7 games. Now all of a sudden he's reckless and a turnover machine.

 

 But no one's talking about Burrow being bailed out by his defense last week or him leading his squad to only 234 yards of total offense against Baltimore. Buffalo hit that mark by the middle of the 2nd quarter.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

53 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

For years, when Bills faced a third and long, hell, third and medium, you knew the punter was already warming up.

Apparently, some Bills fans want to go back to that.   They can’t handle the stress!

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Really good analysis. And yes, as the article shows, Allen is to blame, not Dorsey. The easy yards are there, but Josh has been a little too eager to take the home run swing (and miss).

I really wouldn’t call them missing whenever Josh Allen is putting the ball right on receivers down the field I mean he literally is putting it right where they can catch it. It’s up to the receivers to make that play.

 

Very few inaccurate passes this year down the field

 

My thing is if we are truly using the passing game as an extension of the running game then I’m also fine with that because we’re basically turning out first downs, grinding out clock and keeping an opposing office off the field

 

I love Josh Allen’s mentality why take a bunch of plays to score 7 whenever you can do it with one he wants to score a zillion points. I only have a problem with it whenever it’s not there to be had.

 

Let Joe Burrow sit on the sideline and stew for a while

19 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Apparently, some Bills fans want to go back to that.   They can’t handle the stress!

I think the idea is to stay out of the third and longs. Stay ahead of the sticks keep the clock rolling first down first down first down touchdown.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

For years after Kelly we had qbs who routinely threw passes just like the one Kirk Cousins ended the Giants' game with. For years, when Bills faced a third and long, hell, third and medium, you knew the punter was already warming up. We now have the best team in the league converting third down. You are never out of a game with Josh Allen. Three losses this year by a combined eight points. 

 

 The the bolded points. Yes, it was so bad that there was a time when Brian Moorman, our punter, was the best player on the team and I believe wad the team's MVP one year? 

 

 To your 2nd point. In the 11 games Josh started as a rookie we lost by more than 7 points 3 times. In the 65 games since Josh's rookie season, there have only been 4 games we lost by more than 7. We win or are within 7 points in nearly every game we play.

 

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

6 hours ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz and the rest of the Analytics Kids are just SO excited that Josh Allen has been turning the ball over and playing more erratically lately. SO excited. They had to sit quietly in a corner while Josh Allen became an elite, no-questions-asked top five quarterback in the league. Now that he has started turning the ball over a bit more and his completion percentage has dropped a bit? Oh man. They probably couldn't run to their keyboards fast enough to start writing these articles.

 

Josh Allen is not above constructive criticism.

[gobills404]

6 hours ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz and the rest of the Analytics Kids are just SO excited that Josh Allen has been turning the ball over and playing more erratically lately. SO excited. They had to sit quietly in a corner while Josh Allen became an elite, no-questions-asked top five quarterback in the league. Now that he has started turning the ball over a bit more and his completion percentage has dropped a bit? Oh man. They probably couldn't run to their keyboards fast enough to start writing these articles.

They were basically worshiping Allen the first 6 weeks of the season cause of how good he was playing. Now he’s been turning the ball over a bunch and they’re rightfully being critical of that. It’s called being unbiased.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

16 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think the idea is to stay out of the third and longs. Stay ahead of the sticks keep the clock rolling first down first down first down touchdown.

 

 Over the last 3 seasons we have probably been the most consistent offense in the NFL when in comes to yards, points and 1st downs averages. Points 31.1, 28.4, 28.4. Yards 406, 391, 407. 1st downs  23.35, 23.41, 22.94. 

 

 

[Magox]

5 hours ago, Airseven said:

Reality is that Allen isn't a god QB who can carry a team on his back - at least consistently. His inaccuracy and careless/reckless tendencies can't sustain winning particularly in the post-season. He needs talent/scheme built around him to maximize his athleticism and throwing ability (which on its face are elite). Beane's recent decisions regarding the OL and offensive skill positions have failed Allen.

 

 

Is this a serious post or an attempt to troll?

 

 

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

People cannot wait for Allen to fail. It's unlike anything I've ever seen watching the league

It’s anything they can hang their hat on to confirm their priors.

[Success]

Josh needs to BE JOSH.

 

Last thing I want to see is our home run QB start to "reign it in."  That doesn't mean abandoning open receivers on shorter routes.  But you have to take the bad w/ the good, and there is a lot more of the latter w/ JA.

 

If you're an opposing fan - what do you want to see?  You don't want Allen slinging it and going deep.  Because those hit more than they miss.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

This is the publication that was obsessed with Herbert for the record 😂

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, Airseven said:

Reality is that Allen isn't a god QB who can carry a team on his back - at least consistently. His inaccuracy and careless/reckless tendencies can't sustain winning particularly in the post-season. He needs talent/scheme built around him to maximize his athleticism and throwing ability (which on its face are elite). Beane's recent decisions regarding the OL and offensive skill positions have failed Allen.

 

 

He only really seems to take the risks when nothing else is working so I think you are completely wrong about this honestly 😂 

 

the risks usually come on the opponents side of the field when he’s trying to hammer in tds instead of field goals.  How many of his ints were on our own side of the field giving up great field position this season?  I can hardly think of any.  
 

he’s as close to a god qb as anyone in the league…you have said in your own post he doesn’t have any help and he’s certainly putting up numbers sooooo 

[Magox]

22 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

They were basically worshiping Allen the first 6 weeks of the season cause of how good he was playing. Now he’s been turning the ball over a bunch and they’re rightfully being critical of that. It’s called being unbiased.

What’s the Bills record since all these turnovers been happening?  How many points per game they been putting up?   

[Malazan]

I'm hoping the Miami game with next to no Allen runs and all the deep shots was them trying to warm up for Cincy given the injury limited Allen's ability to throw deep this season. 

[Juice_32]

6 hours ago, Airseven said:

 

That's not the point. The bizarre concept here is that a lot of Bills fans either want Allen to carry the team and/or think it's fair to expect Allen to carry the team. When the goal is ascending to a championship, being so singularly player-dependent is both precarious and naive.

I’ll take this as a verbose way of saying they’d be 7-10 without him, thanks.