The Ringer: Josh Allen Needs to Chill

[WotAGuy]

If Josh bets like he plays, he’ll be broke in two years. 

[PaattMaann]

Just now, The Frankish Reich said:

Of course. But ... game situation. Quality of the opponent's offense.

The exact same criticisms were made of Mahomes in the first half of 2021, and he seems to have made minor adjustments (much like The Ringer article suggests for Josh) that have made them better. It's not personal! They are not questioning Josh's intelligence or ability. Just stating the obvious, and backing it up with some examples and stats.

 

I didn't think it came off as personal, and I was not responding to your comment in a personal manner either brother! 

 

I am simply saying, I'll take "the good with the bad" just as it is. It has largely been game plan specific. He has shown the ability all year to hit open underneath/mid range targets. I am saying this is a non issue and im OK with that crappy offensive series where he took back to back deep shots to Gabe Davis and we punted (I was not at the time lol) because it means we also get multiple deep shot connections a game.

 

And as the post above that shows the twitter thread by @sharpndpensel (a great follow by the way), the passing offense is still wildly effective so who cares how it gets done? The bottom line is, every metric shows that GREAT things happen when Joshua Patrick Allen drops back to fire the pigskin. 

[Billsatlastin2018]

The difference between Allen & Mahomes is that Allen is a risk taker.
Mahomes takes the easy safe things, with the sidearm, the hand flick etc. to close targets, while Josh does not always choose those options.

 

Why? 
 

Because he has the god given ability to whip a ball 70 yards, cross field on a dime!

 

Should he?

 

Most of us would say… under a few sets of circumstances.

And not when you’re up 17-0 and about to bury a 3rd. string QB!

[The Firebaugh Kid]

51 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

He does have a point BUT Miami was the big underdog, they were daring J Allen to throw the deep ball, Allen did what he was trained to do, go to the WRs when they are one on one and Miami is in Cover zero.

AND that's HOW you get them out of cover 0. You hit a few of them. 

[PaattMaann]

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

A particularly stupid way to put it. Which 20% chance at a 50 yard completion will you substitute for a 90% chance for a 10 yard completion" is what they're saying.

Expected yards gained may still favor the former by a tick, but the latter is better for sustaining a drive and depriving the opponent of their own chance to score.

 

Except all of the numbers show how effective our passing offense is on a per play basis sooooooooooooooooo

Edited January 20, 2023 by PaattMaann

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

A particularly stupid way to put it. Which 20% chance at a 50 yard completion will you substitute for a 90% chance for a 10 yard completion" is what they're saying.

Expected yards gained may still favor the former by a tick, but the latter is better for sustaining a drive and depriving the opponent of their own chance to score.

 

Right, so (and I didn't read the Ringer article because I don't have a lot of respect for Solak) this is where context matters.

 

The completion to Diggs, on 3rd and 15 from the Buf 42, was a high value-added choice if it was there.  There were open options underneath, but likely would have been tackled short of the 1D and outside of FG range.  If we didn't convert, we were gonna punt anyway, so why not take a shot?

 

The interception to Brown, on 1st and 10 from the Buf 47, is more ambiguous.  On the one hand, we have two more tries to convert if if falls incomplete so why not take a shot?  On the other hand, we had guys open underneath who could have gained at least half the distance to convert, and at that point we were leading 17-3.  Taking the play with the higher probability of sustaining the drive may have more value there.  I don't fundamentally have a problem with taking a shot, but need to be sure that it will either be an incompletion or a completion.  Whatever caused the DB to be in better position to make the catch than Brown was, we can't have that.

 

 

[Airseven]

Reality is that Allen isn't a god QB who can carry a team on his back - at least consistently. His inaccuracy and careless/reckless tendencies can't sustain winning particularly in the post-season. He needs talent/scheme built around him to maximize his athleticism and throwing ability (which on its face are elite). Beane's recent decisions regarding the OL and offensive skill positions have failed Allen.

 

 

[PaattMaann]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Right, so (and I didn't read the Ringer article because I don't have a lot of respect for Solak) this is where context matters.

 

The completion to Diggs, on 3rd and 15 from the Buf 42, was a high value-added choice if it was there.  There were open options underneath, but likely would have been tackled short of the 1D and outside of FG range.  If we didn't convert, we were gonna punt anyway, so why not take a shot?

 

The interception to Brown, on 1st and 10 from the Buf 47, is more ambiguous.  On the one hand, we have two more tries to convert if if falls incomplete so why not take a shot?  On the other hand, we had guys open underneath who could have gained at least half the distance to convert, and at that point we were leading 17-3.  Taking the play with the higher probability of sustaining the drive may have more value there.  I don't fundamentally have a problem with taking a shot, but need to be sure that it will either be an incompletion or a completion.  Whatever caused the DB to be in better position to make the catch than Brown was, we can't have that.

 

 

 

The Kill Shot...if he hits it for a tuddy we are in a completely different place with the Miami game. 

 

Also to your point about context....I don't have the stat or remember where I heard it (I am sure it was a podcast over these past two weeks) but it was comparing QBs on third downs and air yards, and the number 1 QB in the league by far at throwing at or past the sticks was Josh Allen. 

Just now, Airseven said:

Reality is that Allen isn't a god QB who can carry a team on his back - at least consistently. His inaccuracy and careless/reckless tendencies can't sustain winning particularly in the post-season. He needs talent/scheme built around him to maximize his athleticism and throwing ability (which on its face are elite). Beane's recent decisions regarding the OL and offensive skill positions have failed Allen.

 

 

 

what theeee....THIS is what you got out of that article (did you read it?) and this discussion in this thread (did you read it?)???

[GoBills808]

big wrong josher

[QLBillsFan]

56 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

He's been panicking in the pocket. A lot of that has to do with how little time the offensive line gives him. How is Feliciano doing in NY? Surely he's an upgrade over some of the guys we have? 

Miami blitzed every play. Josh scrambled up the middle where DT’s were staying home for about 3 of those sacks. Bills put up 45 without 2 big drops. Feliciano as an average OL and brought and would bring zero upgrade.

[Juice_32]

2 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Reality is that Allen isn't a god QB who can carry a team on his back - at least consistently. His inaccuracy and careless/reckless tendencies can't sustain winning particularly in the post-season. He needs talent/scheme built around him to maximize his athleticism and throwing ability (which on its face are elite). Beane's recent decisions regarding the OL and offensive skill positions have failed Allen.

 

 

 

Interesting. What do you think the Bills record would be without him? 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I'll read it soon, but again Shakir catches a perfect pass and Brown doesn't break off route (and probably just an incompletion) what happened afterwards doesn't happen and they are lauding perfect deep throws by Allen.

Ya and let’s even say that was a a legit INT and he shouldn’t have thrown it.

 

Shakir catches the 60 yard bomb, Knox catches the TD pass, and you’re looking at a 400 yard plus and 4 TD performance. 

[Albany,n.y.]

58 minutes ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz and the rest of the Analytics Kids are just SO excited that Josh Allen has been turning the ball over and playing more erratically lately. SO excited. They had to sit quietly in a corner while Josh Allen became an elite, no-questions-asked top five quarterback in the league. Now that he has started turning the ball over a bit more and his completion percentage has dropped a bit? Oh man. They probably couldn't run to their keyboards fast enough to start writing these articles.

Statically, Josh had virtually the same season in 2022 as he did in 2021.https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

 

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

big wrong josher

Josh Allen proved their way of projecting college performance to the NFL to be wrong. The debate was so heated entering the draft because Josh wasn't just a QB prospect. He was a living embodiment of the differences in the ways that analytics guys evaluate prospects and the ways that scouts analyze prospects. In other words, do you dig deep into the stats of college performance, normalize the data to make apples to apples comparisons and then use that data to build complex statistical models to project college prospects to the NFL or do you draft for traits. The old-school guys won on this one, and that why these analytics guys can't let this go.

[par73]

Daboll is missed, I believe. There was a better mix between airing it out, and just moving the ball down the field.

[Gugny]

54 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Let him be Josh without taking the huge risks of just chucking the ball. He needs to be a threat to run every time he has the ball. That to me was a huge issue this past game vs the Dolphins

 

Yeah, those 3 passing touchdowns and 352 passing yards really held us back.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

38 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Haha.  I'm 44 and still do the dumb stuff.  Maybe my game will mature by 45.  😜

 

I'm 5'8", so I have to play to my strengths and hunt the 3 ball.  No dunking for me unless it's against my kids on the Fisher Price hoop.

 

A better analogy for me is golf.  I hit the ball pretty long, so I'm often forced to decide between taking the chance of driving the green on a short par 4 or taking the "layup" of an iron, wedge and an almost guaranteed par. 

Good golf analogy! 
 

BTW, on the golf course, I am also really long off the tee with my driver. But then I proceed to engage in extraordinarily awful decision making and short-game play the rest of the way. I can play like garbage the entire day and shoot a 95. Or I can drive and strike the ball great all day, but still shoot a 95. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

Josh Allen proved their way of projecting college performance to the NFL to be wrong. The debate was so heated entering the draft because Josh wasn't just a QB prospect. He was a living embodiment of the differences in the ways that analytics guys evaluate prospects and the ways that scouts analyze prospects. In other words, do you dig deep into the stats of college performance, normalize the data to make apples to apples comparisons and then use that data to build complex statistical models to project college prospects to the NFL or do you draft for traits. The old-school guys won on this one, and that why these analytics guys can't let this go.

People cannot wait for Allen to fail. It's unlike anything I've ever seen watching the league

[TheBrownBear]

14 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Reality is that Allen isn't a god QB who can carry a team on his back - at least consistently. His inaccuracy and careless/reckless tendencies can't sustain winning particularly in the post-season. He needs talent/scheme built around him to maximize his athleticism and throwing ability (which on its face are elite). Beane's recent decisions regarding the OL and offensive skill positions have failed Allen.

 

 

Yeah, he's basically Kirk Cousins or Dak Prescott, right?

Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Good golf analogy! 
 

BTW, on the golf course, I am also really long off the tee with my driver. But then I proceed to engage in extraordinarily awful decision making and short-game play the rest of the way. I can play like garbage the entire day and shoot a 95. Or I can drive and strike the ball great all day, but still shoot a 95. 

We have a saying in my family: "Drive for show.  Drive for show!".

[K-9]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

Funny how Josh isn’t reckless when he hits those deep shots in tight game situations. He attempts those passes for a simple reason: because those plays are there to be made and he is supremely confident that he and his receivers can make them. I have no problem with that.