The Ringer: Josh Allen Needs to Chill

[YoloinOhio]

 

Quote

We also cannot attribute the increase in downfield shots to Dorsey’s offense. By route density, the Bills are sending their receivers to the same general areas of the field with the same frequency. Compare these heat maps of routes run by the Bills offense over the last three seasons: Dorsey is getting a few more post routes dialed up to the deep middle of the field, but other than that, the Dorsey and Daboll offenses are pretty similar.

 

Quote

The onus for this downfield focus for the Bills offense, then, doesn’t fall on Dorsey: it falls on Allen. When you rip through the film of these last few months of Allen’s game, you see a player desperately hunting the deep shot, even when it is not ideal to do so. At no point has this been more apparent than last week’s Bills-Dolphins game, in which Allen averaged a depth of target north of 16 yards—the single highest mark of any game he’s played in the last three years. Again, the Bills are fine—they scored 34 points!—but they were almost very much not fine, and Allen’s reckless play is a big part of the reason why.

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

Josh showed in the LA game he can find that sweet spot between gunslinger and taking what’s available; that’s the Josh who holds up the Lombardi next month. 

[ALLinALLEN]

I'll pass on his assessment 

[The Frankish Reich]

Really good analysis. And yes, as the article shows, Allen is to blame, not Dorsey. The easy yards are there, but Josh has been a little too eager to take the home run swing (and miss).

[RoyBatty is alive]

He does have a point BUT Miami was the big underdog, they were daring J Allen to throw the deep ball, Allen did what he was trained to do, go to the WRs when they are one on one and Miami is in Cover zero.

Edited January 20, 2023 by RoyBatty is alive

[Gugny]

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

I'll read it soon, but again Shakir catches a perfect pass and Brown doesn't break off route (and probably just an incompletion) what happened afterwards doesn't happen and they are lauding perfect deep throws by Allen.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

people don’t realize how tempting it is. It reminds me of playing basketball, and you know you are a great 3-point shooter and have a wide open 3. It’s tough not to take that, even though you are also fast and strong and probably drive to the bucket for a dunk too.

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

I don't think we should cite Benjamin Solak here without posting a few of his receipts.

 

Prior to the draft, Solak had this to say about Josh Allen:

 

Quote

 

Josh Allen’s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you’re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement.

On top of his poor decision making as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback—just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy.

 

He didn't have Allen in his top-100 pre draft

 

Basically, kudos to this mid-20s journalist for maneuvering his opinions from NDT Scouting into larger markets like "The Ringer" and making a good living at writing about football, but let's Contextualize his Writing with his demonstrated previous football acumen: sporadic accuracy.

 

-------------------------------------

As far as the offense:

 

People who spend far more time breaking down Bills film (Cover1) have said there is really only about 20-30% carryover between Daboll's offense and Dorsey's.

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Beck Water

[Bruffalo]

These kinds of articles are lay ups.  Easy, boring, kind of saying the obvious.  

Allen is a gunslinger. It's what makes Bills games the best, most watchable football in the NFL.  It's a rollercoaster, take your blood pressure meds and enjoy the ride.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

people don’t realize how tempting it is. It reminds me of playing basketball, and you know you are a great 3-point shooter and have a wide open 3. It’s tough not to take that, even though you are also fast and strong and probably drive to the bucket for a dunk too.

yep that was definitely my dilemma in every pick up game I played. Swoosh this three in this guys face or dunk on this fools head?

[Awwufelloff]

He's been panicking in the pocket. A lot of that has to do with how little time the offensive line gives him. How is Feliciano doing in NY? Surely he's an upgrade over some of the guys we have? 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Really good analysis. And yes, as the article shows, Allen is to blame, not Dorsey. The easy yards are there, but Josh has been a little too eager to take the home run swing (and miss).

 

I don't know what "to blame" means.  What we don't know (and Solak doesn't know) is how the reads in the play are.  Dorsey has said over and over again that his mindset is to be aggressive: "Play smart not conservative"

 

The easy yards are indeed there, but Josh has instructions to read the play (probably from deep to shallow) and when to take the shot.

[Logic]

Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz and the rest of the Analytics Kids are just SO excited that Josh Allen has been turning the ball over and playing more erratically lately. SO excited. They had to sit quietly in a corner while Josh Allen became an elite, no-questions-asked top five quarterback in the league. Now that he has started turning the ball over a bit more and his completion percentage has dropped a bit? Oh man. They probably couldn't run to their keyboards fast enough to start writing these articles.

[Motorin']

8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I have a thread on this coming. I think Josh may have inadvertently let out why he plays more chaotically during 1pm games. 

 

On this week's Kyle Brandt cast, they got into the weeds on Josh's pre-game throwing up habit. To the point where Kyle asked him what his puke looked like. And Josh said he doesn't eat before 1pm games. 

 

Josh said "hungry warriors fight harder." I can't help but wonder if his mental processing is sharper in late games bc he's not playing on an empty stomach? 

 

Dude better eat before the 3pm game this weekend dammit!  

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just like some posters here; those who hang on to their initial biases and evaluations of Josh Allen will take a game like last week to justify their initial narrative, despite him still throwing for 352 yds, three TDs and winning the game.  Not to mention the dropped TD pass by Knox or  bomb by Shakir.  

[Mango]

19 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Josh showed in the LA game he can find that sweet spot between gunslinger and taking what’s available; that’s the Josh who holds up the Lombardi next month. 

Right!

 

This has been a big part of the reason for my criticism. Sort of shaken baby syndrome. Like “Dude, you are certainly capable. Just play within yourself”

[Logic]

 

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I have a thread on this coming. I think Josh may have inadvertently let out why he plays more chaotically during 1pm games. 

 

On this week's Kyle Brandt cast, they got into the weeds on Josh's pre-game throwing up habit. To the point where Kyle asked him what his puke looked like. And Josh said he doesn't eat before 1pm games. 

 

Josh said "hungry warriors fight harder." I can't help but wonder if his mental processing is sharper in late games bc he's not playing on an empty stomach? 

 

Dude better eat before the 3pm game this weekend dammit!  

 

I think you'd have to start by demonstrating that there is, indeed, some kind of quantifyable difference in how Josh plays at 1 pm vs later.

[Logic]