Updated: categorization of Josh Allen fumbles

[What a Tuel]

3 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The snap and sack numbers are high...not sure if you can dispute that.   The INT's are also high.   I think he is one of the best things that has happened to this team in its history.  But I also think it is ok to say he should try to limit turnovers.   Everyone can improve something.

 

I think that's fine but people are turning it into a narrative like the "bills can't win close games" nonsense. I don't think 2 more INTs in a season more than Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow warrants a "turnover machine" tag.

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Good data work here.

 

Another reason the Bills should look heavily at adding to the OL early in the draft.

 

Allen is not blameless for the sack fumbles, but we could throw him a bone once and a while.

 

@Beck Water any ideas of this breakdown would stack up against other top performing QBs?

 

Im sure finding fumbles and fumbles lost is relatively easy, but mining the film to find the way in which they fumbled probably isn’t.

 

It just makes me curious how to see if Allen is loosing fumbles while sacked at a higher rate than other QBs.

 

Actually "fumbles lost" is harder than one might think, or maybe I just don't know the right source for it.

 

I was able to pull the cause of the fumble from box scores, so that wasn't too bad

It's enough time and work I'm not inclined to do it for 8 or 10 guys, Sorry!

 

So we'd need to look at overall sacks, then at strip sacks, and I'm sure there are data services that report this but I don't subscribe.  It's on my list to look at my sports subscriptions and get more "bang for my buck" in terms of my personal enjoyment, so maybe I'll look into one of those since NFL+ seems to have no desire to fix their all-22.

 

We can say a couple things though, using regular season stats.

 

The 15 players with the most fumbles are all QB, and they're not all running guys, so I think it's a good guess that strip sacks are a common cause of QB fumbles.  First is Justin Fields (16), second is Matt Ryan (15), Allen is 3rd (13 reg season), Trevor Lawrence 4th (12), Jalen Hurts 5th (9).  Geno Smith, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers all tied with 8, Kirk Cousins one back with 7.

Of those, Fields took a league leading 55 sacks, Cousins and Smith 46, Hurts and Herbert 38, Allen 33, Rodgers 32.  I'm going to guess that most of Cousins, Smith, Herbert, and Rodgers fumbles were on sacks, since it's a problem to have as many fumbles on QB/C exchange as Allen had this year and they rarely run.  Fields and Hurts, can't say anything without diving into the details since they run, A Lot.

 

That would put Herbert 8/38, Rodgers 8/32 (assuming most of their fumbles are on sacks)  Allen 7 reg. season strip sack fumbles/33 sacks.  So maybe around the same rate as a handful of pretty good QB.  Tua 6 fumbles on 21 sacks.  Basically, one fumble on every 4-ish sacks.

 

That said, it isn't inevitable. Daniel Jones has 6 fumbles on 44 sacks (probably less, since he ran a lot this year), Burrow 6 on 41 sacks, Cousins 7 fumbles/46 sacks, Geno Smith 8/46 - around 15%, or 1 fumble every 7 sacks.

 

Mahomes is in between, 5 fumbles, 26 sacks - 0 lost which is pretty incredible for something that's supposed to be a 50/50 proposition.

 

My bottom line, Allen's rate of fumbling on strip sacks is probably at the high end of a number of good QB, so there would be room for improvement with ball security there.

 

In the previous 2 years, Allen has fumbled less - 2020 9x (6), 2021 8x (3).  I think it would be a fairly good guess that a lot of the difference would be issues on the QB/C exchange, since without, say, 4 of those 5 fumbles he would be at 9 which would be in line with the previous 2 years.

 

He took more sacks this year, 33 vs 26 in '20 and '21.  Not sure if that reflects a trend away from taking off when he's pressured (I don't think so, but can't say for sure)/better defense at containing him, OR, if our OL is just giving up more pressures and sacks because Saffold and Brown just aren't very good in the pass pro.

 

Hope this interests someone. 

 

Obviously, a change in procedure to maybe sneak in a little more QB/C exchange work with the 2nd and 3rd string guys could help, but it would have to be against a defender because I'm sure they're fine when they just practice against air.  I think the main thing is if we want Josh to stand in the pocket and throw, we got to get him a better OL that can protect him and enable more of a run game.

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

What! We like the plays that work! Call more of those, Dorsey!

 

Yes, those ones are my favorite! 

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

leads the league in int’s ? 

 

Um, No.   Does not.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

I’m in the Josh Allen is elite but is turning the ball over too much yet some don’t allow criticism brigade. 
led the league with 19 turnovers.   

 

Just so we're clear, that's INTs and fumbles, not INTs.  And a bunch of those are weird - for example, all the aborted snaps this season.

 

If you look at number of INTs, strangely enough there are a bunch of top QB who are in the playoffs right up there. 

Prescott, Allen, Cousins, Burrow, Mahomes.

 

Strangely enough, a lot of these are also the guys with the most passing attempts - Mahomes, Burrow, Cousins, Allen

 

If we look at Int % to normalize for attempts, it gives a slightly different picture.  Prescott is right up there with 3.5%.

Cousins, Rodgers, Burrow, and Mahomes are lower, around 2 - 2.2%.

 

Allen is a bit higher, at 2.5%

 

Basically, if you're gonna run a relatively high risk passing attack, you're gonna have a few more INTs.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[LongTermBuffalonian]

Look, I'm not saying Josh is perfect...

 

But I'm ALSO not going to blame him every time a ball bounces out of a receiver's hands into the hands of defender, or when the defense makes a GREAT play.

Everyone on the field is trying to win - and occasionally the 'bad guys' win a play. It falls under the "that's why they play the game". 

 

I'm just not going to overreact on this. It was a game vs an opponent who played us tough in the season. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Basically, if you're gonna run a relatively high risk passing attack, you're gonna have a few more INTs.

And you're likely to have a lot more TD's.

 

[What a Tuel]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Just so we're clear, that's INTs and fumbles, not INTs

And I think it's incorrect, at least I can't make the math come out - Data source, please?

 

If you look at number of INTs, strangely enough there are a bunch of top QB who are in the playoffs right up there. 

Prescott, Allen, Cousins, Burrow, Mahomes.

 

Strangely enough, a lot of these are also the guys with the most passing attempts - Mahomes, Burrow, Cousins, Allen

 

If we look at Int % to normalize for attempts, it gives a slightly different picture.  Prescott is right up there with 3.5%.

Cousins, Rodgers, Burrow, and Mahomes are lower, around 2 - 2.2%.

 

Allen is a bit higher, at 2.5%

 

Basically, if you're gonna run a relatively high risk passing attack, you're gonna have a few more INTs.

 

They really need to separate out INTs from tipped INTs too. If the WR affects the trajectory of a ball and doesn't catch it or knock it down, it should go into TINT category and not be in QB stats. D Line tips and DB tips should still be counted I think.

Edited January 19, 2023 by What a Tuel

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

One of the “fumbles” was the pitch to McKenzie in KC. 

 

Interestingly, that scored as an "aborted snap", which seems strange now that I think of it.

 

Anyway, the play looked to me like it was supposed to be an option between a handoff on the sweep to McKenzie (which didn't occur) or a screen to the L (McKenzie said this, McDermott said "you have to understand what we were actually trying to accomplish there") Josh improvised the pitch as an option when the screen was blown up (Allen actually said this)

 

It's Josh Allen at QB and McKenzie should have been ready for "anything to happen" until the whistle blew, but it's not like the pitch was designed into the play.

 

Unless of course, you wanna disagree with Allen, McDermott, and McKenzie about the play.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Interestingly, that scored as an "aborted snap", which seems strange now that I think of it.

 

Anyway, the play looked to me like it was supposed to be an option between a handoff on the sweep to McKenzie (which didn't occur) or a screen to the L (McKenzie said this, McDermott said "you have to understand what we were actually trying to accomplish there") Josh improvised the pitch as an option when the screen was blown up (Allen actually said this)

 

It's Josh Allen at QB and McKenzie should have been ready for "anything to happen" until the whistle blew, but it's not like the pitch was designed into the play.

 

Unless of course, you wanna disagree with Allen, McDermott, and McKenzie about the play.

Didn't know that. Thanks.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

Been a story all week

lets play what if

what if Allen doesn’t throw the second pick to Beasley instead they call illegal contact there and it comes back?

 

Shouldn't that be DPI since he was hindering the receiver after the ball was in the air but before it arrived?

 

I struggle with understanding these distinctions, so I could be mistaken.

 

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Didn't know that. Thanks.

 

You're welcome, and when I was doing the breakdown I was cooking right along and it didn't register to me that the lateral had actually been scored as an "aborted snap".  So thanks in return for getting me to take a 2nd look at that.

 

11 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

They really need to separate out INTs from tipped INTs too. If the WR affects the trajectory of a ball and doesn't catch it or knock it down, it should go into TINT category and not be in QB stats. D Line tips and DB tips should still be counted I think.

 

There's probably this kind of distinction in one of those NFL stats services one must subscribe to and I've been too cheap to shell out for.  But I'm not sure that's entirely fair to the WR since a number of times when there's a tip from the WR, the WR is trying kinda desperately to make a play on a ball that's too high.

 

Also, look at the Diggs 1D catch where the ball went right over Shakir's outstretched finger tips.  If Shakir had jumped, he might well have tipped it for a pick - and is that on him, or on a route design that created confusion by putting him in front of Diggs at the same time, with spacing that created ambiguity?

Edited January 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Shouldn't that be DPI since he was hindering the receiver after the ball was in the air but before it arrived?

 

I struggle with understanding these distinctions, so I could be mistaken.

 

 

You're welcome, and when I was doing the breakdown I was cooking right along and it didn't register to me that the lateral had actually been scored as an "aborted snap".  So thanks in return for getting me to take a 2nd look at that.

It looks like he held the receiver before the pass was released and then committed DPI.  My understanding is that DPI should be the call in those instance because it's the greater penalty.  It was borderline, though, and I'm not angry that it wasn't called. Gotta let players play.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Mickey said:

All Josh's critics want is for him to take risks when they pay off with a big play and to not take risks when they end badly and for him to know the outcome before he commits to taking or not taking risks.  Perfect execution and flawless judgment i.e., reading the future, is all they ask.  They don't want to turn him in to Trent Dilfer they just want him to play more like Trent Dilfer and maybe to change his first name to "Trent" and his last name to "Dilfer".  Is this unreasonable?

 

Mickey, I hear what you're saying, but I think it's a fair point in my follow-up posts, that several of the top QB in the playoffs like Mahomes, Burrow Cousins -  who are certainly calculated risk-takers - do seem to throw a lower INT % and to protect the ball a bit better when sacked.  And Allen himself fumbled less the two previous years and especially in 2020, threw for more yards and 4 fewer INT, so we know it's actually possible for him, while putting up sky high numbers.

 

Are you trying to argue that no improvement is possible or should be expected, or that the choice is binary between Allen's current turnover picture or becomingTrent Dilfer?  Because I think data contradict this.

 

 

[Inigo Montoya]

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

I’m in the Josh Allen is elite but is turning the ball over too much yet some don’t allow criticism brigade. 
 

led the league with 19 turnovers.   

 

 

I agree with you Teddy that Josh turns the ball over too much, but Josh Allen is a package deal.   He had all those turnovers on the way to a 13-3 record and was a cancelled game away from a legit shot at the #1 seed this year.  On the whole I'll take that package deal, turnovers and all. 

 

To your point though, if Josh could adjust his game to cut down on the turnovers and still score points like he does, he would be otherworldly.  It's fair as a fan to hope for that, I do too, but at the end of the day I just can't get down on Josh for his style of play that continues to win games for us.  

 

🍻

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

It looks like he held the receiver before the pass was released and then committed DPI.  My understanding is that DPI should be the call in those instance because it's the greater penalty.  It was borderline, though, and I'm not angry that it wasn't called. Gotta let players play.

 

I think Beasley needed to sell it more by making a hands catch (so it's clearer if his hand is being held) and by fighting hard to come back to the ball.

 

I really don't like the "let players play" thing where it comes to WR being mugged all game.  For one thing, IME it seldom lasts all game, but instead gets called selectively at a really influential time when the degree of it passes some invisible line known best to the refs and not discernible to the players.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

McKenzie said the play was supposed to be a run the other way and he was just a decoy.

 

Not sure who is right, but somebody got the playcall wrong there.

I suspect a Josh adlib.  Like the pitch to Knox in the WC game vs. the Texans.  Although on that play Dawson made no effort to lead for a block and trailed like the lateral was somehow a built in option.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think Beasley needed to sell it more by making a hands catch (so it's clearer if his hand is being held) and by fighting hard to come back to the ball.

 

I really don't like the "let players play" thing where it comes to WR being mugged all game.  For one thing, IME it seldom lasts all game, but instead gets called selectively at a really influential time when the degree of it passes some invisible line known best to the refs and not discernible to the players.

I agree about mugging, but I also don't mind a bit of contact. Call it too tight, and it gives a big advantage to the offense.

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I agree about mugging, but I also don't mind a bit of contact. Call it too tight, and it gives a big advantage to the offense.

 

A bit of contact and a tug on the jersey, sure.  Those are so common that WR practice running routes and releasing while dragging tires.

 

I don't like to see the WR arms being held or waist being wrapped up before the ball gets there.

[WhoTom]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I still don't like the way he holds the ball when he runs.

 

Ditto. Every time he runs, I find myself yelling, "Tuck it, Josh!"

 

 

[LongTermBuffalonian]

4 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Ditto. Every time he runs, I find myself yelling, "Tuck it, Josh!"

 

 

 

To be fair, that's part of the way he keeps defenses honest behind the line of scrimmage.

 

How many times have we seen him wrist flick it like 10 yards to an open receiver as he approaches the line?

If he pulls it in and tucks it, the Defense KNOWS he is going to run. If he has his arm ready to throw - the defense has to allow for a last minute throw, so it keeps them honest.

 

And how many times has he gained a first down by stretching the ball across the line?

 

I'm just saying - part of what makes him SO dangerous is the ease that he transiitons from throwing threat to running threat...