Updated: categorization of Josh Allen fumbles

[Beck Water]

Heard a couple of posters here referring to Josh Allen as a "turnover machine" when he runs.

 

Thought it might be of interest to look again at when and why Josh has fumbled this season.  I did this earlier (forget when) but a number of games and fumbles have rolled since then.

 

All data are from boxscores on Pro Football Reference

Josh has fumbled in 10 of 17 games this season

 

16 total fumbles (6 fumbles lost)

Aborted snap 5 (2)

Sack 9 (4)

Run 2 (0).  The runs are short yardage; in one case Josh lost it on a shotgun snap, scooped it up and ran in for a TD, in the other it was a short run, fighting to avoid a sack.

 

Strip sack is now the most common cause of fumble (more than half), as well as 4 of the 6 lost fumbles

Aborted snap 2nd, with 1 of them appearing to be Josh's fault.  This is much higher than usual and most likely have to do with 3rd string C or with injury to the C.

 

Interestingly, 6 of the fumbles and 3 lost fumbles were against MIA (1 aborted snap, 5 sacks)

 

Kudos to Josh because earlier in his career, he did fumble an alarming amount when he ran, but for the most part he seems to have gotten to grips with this problem (pun intended) - though I still don't like the way he holds the ball when he runs.

 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[CSBill]

Well done, Beck. Thank you. I think much if it is situational, where the "when" it happens is the important issue. In close games, Josh has to be more careful, no matter what caused the fumble. Don't make the sack or the failed first down a bigger issue than it is. I'm confident that message is being drummed into his brain this week.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Good data work here.

 

Another reason the Bills should look heavily at adding to the OL early in the draft.

 

Allen is not blameless for the sack fumbles, but we could throw him a bone once and a while.

 

@Beck Water any ideas of this breakdown would stack up against other top performing QBs?

 

Im sure finding fumbles and fumbles lost is relatively easy, but mining the film to find the way in which they fumbled probably isn’t.

 

It just makes me curious how to see if Allen is loosing fumbles while sacked at a higher rate than other QBs.

[H2o]

With all his regression, I guess we did get "Wrong Josh" after all

 

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[eball]

So, Josh isn’t “bumbling?”  Asking for a friend.

 

[Teddy KGB]

2 minutes ago, eball said:

So, Josh isn’t “bumbling?”  Asking for a friend.

 

leads the league in int’s ? 

[Matt_In_NH]

The snap and sack numbers are high...not sure if you can dispute that.   The INT's are also high.   I think he is one of the best things that has happened to this team in its history.  But I also think it is ok to say he should try to limit turnovers.   Everyone can improve something.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[eball]

1 minute ago, Teddy KGB said:

leads the league in int’s ? 

 

So you’re on record as being a member of the “bumbling Josh” brigade?

 

[Teddy KGB]

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

So you’re on record as being a member of the “bumbling Josh” brigade?

 

Are you on the let’s pretend Josh is playing perfect and the turnovers don’t exist brigade ? 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

25 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Are you on the let’s pretend Josh is playing perfect and the turnovers don’t exist brigade ? 

Are you the Josh is incompetent brigade since that's what bumbling means?

[Teddy KGB]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Are you the Josh is incompetent brigade since that's what bumbling means?

I’m in the Josh Allen is elite but is turning the ball over too much yet some don’t allow criticism brigade. 
 

led the league with 19 turnovers.   

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

19 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

I’m in the Josh Allen is elite but is turning the ball over too much yet some don’t allow criticism brigade. 
 

led the league with 19 turnovers.   

Right! That's all it takes

[dave mcbride]

One of the “fumbles” was the pitch to McKenzie in KC. 

[Mickey]

All Josh's critics want is for him to take risks when they pay off with a big play and to not take risks when they end badly and for him to know the outcome before he commits to taking or not taking risks.  Perfect execution and flawless judgment i.e., reading the future, is all they ask.  They don't want to turn him in to Trent Dilfer they just want him to play more like Trent Dilfer and maybe to change his first name to "Trent" and his last name to "Dilfer".  Is this unreasonable?

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

leads the league in int’s ? 

 

No, Josh didn't lead the league in INTs. 

 

Dak had 15 INT in 12 games. Mills had 15 INT in 15 games. I'm including games played to illustrate that the 2 QBs with more INTs did so in fewer games. 

 

For OP: do you have how many of the aborted snaps happened with Morse at C as opposed to a backup ? I remember at least a few of these that did have Morse

[Drew21PA]

Been a story all week

 

lets play what if

 

what if Allen doesn’t throw the second pick to Beasley instead they call illegal contact there and it comes back?

 

 

Also

 

what if Shakir hangs on and Dawson hangs on to the TD?

 

400 yards and what 3tds 1 pick?

 

 

[eball]

2 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Are you on the let’s pretend Josh is playing perfect and the turnovers don’t exist brigade ? 

 

Who said they don't exist?  Who said Josh is perfect?  There is a wide chasm between saying Josh and the Bills need to cut down on turnovers, and saying Josh is "careless" or "bumbling" with the football.  The tape doesn't support the latter, and I don't care how many picks he has thrown.

 

[Low Positive]

56 minutes ago, Mickey said:

All Josh's critics want is for him to take risks when they pay off with a big play and to not take risks when they end badly and for him to know the outcome before he commits to taking or not taking risks.  Perfect execution and flawless judgment i.e., reading the future, is all they ask.  They don't want to turn him in to Trent Dilfer they just want him to play more like Trent Dilfer and maybe to change his first name to "Trent" and his last name to "Dilfer".  Is this unreasonable?

What! We like the plays that work! Call more of those, Dorsey!

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

One of the “fumbles” was the pitch to McKenzie in KC. 

McKenzie said the play was supposed to be a run the other way and he was just a decoy.

 

Not sure who is right, but somebody got the playcall wrong there.

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

leads the league in int’s ? 

 

Yeah ... we need him to "protect the ball," like TuhROD did.